Showing posts with label crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Sure, Sure...

 ... as if anybody cares what Berlin thinks. 

Berlin must not back any call for a truce that would see Kiev admit defeat, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said. As Scholz took questions from members of the Bundestag on Wednesday, Left lawmaker Gesine Loetzsch asked about Germany’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the possibility of a ceasefire. “In my view, a ceasefire that involves Ukraine’s capitulation is one that we as Germany must never support,” Scholz replied, according to the state broadcaster Deutsche Welle. The German chancellor argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s truce terms amounted to Ukraine’s surrender, calling Moscow “cynical” and not interested in ending the conflict. “Putin only talks about peace negotiations in order to continue the war. We will not allow this,” Scholz said.

In related news, Germany is an occupied country and...

Not only it is being repeated now, it is getting worse, much-much worse. And this is just a warm-up. This the freshest (from 2023) enterprises' electricity prices. Look at the cut-off around the US for combined West. 


Look at Europe. It was always high, but now EU should kiss India's ass because it is India which resells Russian oil to the EU. So many clues, so many processes to follow. You may say I don't have heart--not true, I do. But as I stated, Europeans voted for that being played for fools which many of them turned out to be. Sad, but this is the reality and, as I state non-stop, when shit hits the fan big time--it is when, not if--never a foot of Russian soldier be put on European soil, not a drop of blood to be shed for Europeans. Let them sort it out between themselves, luckily economically and militarily they are pathetic and any hypothetical rise of new Hitler can be easily addressed by a nuclear whip which Russia has. Europe produced two world wars, Russia will not allow the third one coming from it.

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

A Theory.

Late Soviet-Russian philosopher and social scientist Richard Kosolapov quotes, in his 2002 book "Let's Stalin Speak", his friend a former member of the Presidium of the Central Committee, a philosopher and a professor of Moscow State University, Dmitri Chesnokov who had a conversation with Stalin shortly before Stalin's death in March of 1953. In this conversation, Stalin, speaking about formalism and bureaucratization of the Party, almost pleaded with Chesnokov, when stated:

«Вы вошли в Президиум ЦК. Ваша задача – оживить теоретическую работу в партии, дать анализ новых процессов и явлений в стране и мире. Без теории нам смерть, смерть, смерть!»

Translation: You are now a member of the Presidium of the Central Committee. Your task is a revitalization of the theoretical work in Party, to provide the analysis of new processes and phenomena in our country and in the world. Without theory, for us it is death, death, death!  

These are some of the most powerful and dramatic words from a man known for always keeping his cool and not yielding to panic even under the most pressing circumstances of the early stages of the Great Patriotic War. Yet, here it is--stressing an utter urgency. Why so? The answer, is quite obvious--classic Marxism of the 19th-early 20th Century simply ran its course and stopped being adequate and Stalin knew it, even if to assume some theoretical probability that Stalin's formulation to Chesnokov is somewhat exaggerated, albeit I doubt it--in many respects, events of 1940s-1950s and Stalin's character leave no doubts that such a conversation, with such emphasis, did take place. His no less dramatic statement to Shepilov, a famous economist and chief editor of "Pravda", in which Stalin warns about lack of scientific approach to preparation of economic and political elite in USSR and where he also uses hyperbole of historic urgency and of death for the country, only confirms Chesnokov's episode. 

Stalin recognized that times changed, he also recognized a profound effect of the scientific revolution on the society, not just Soviet, but global and that no matter how useful Marxist analytical apparatus was, the theory was increasingly becoming outdated. It was difficult to apply economic views formed in the times of belt transmissions and steam to economic and industrial reality which already in early 1950s saw a revolutionary spread of radio-electronics, mass means of communications and early computers with increase automation of production. Some Russian Marxists today even dare to assume--the view I happen to share with them--that Stalin didn't have a theory of Socialism (in Russian). Not only I share such a view, but seeing where the Soviet Union was going in 1970s and 1980s I dare to state that nobody had. It is of course, a matter for debate and "what if" scenarios when trying to predict if Stalin could have saved the USSR, or could a working theory be realistically developed, but there is no doubt whatsoever, that market relations were already emerging in the USSR as early as 1940s even within the framework of an extremely strained by war mobilizational economy. Such a theory should have accounted for the human nature which, even with the most sophisticated and effective ideological education and upbringing, couldn't be changed, especially against the background of a country which, on Stalin's watch, was becoming the most educated country in the world. One is forced to recall a famous sociological truism, about marriage and family, which emerged early in 20th Century: the higher is the educational level of a woman, the higher is her professional qualification, the wider her circle of personal and public connections, the more self-reliant and independent such a woman is, the higher will be her requirements for marriage.   

This truism is fully applicable to a nation as a whole and could be reduced to a simple formula--the more educated is a nation, the higher will be its requirements for economic well-being. Humans are many things, and they are not exclusively Homo Economicus, but they ARE Homo Economicus among many other things and that is one of the factors which Marxists decided "to solve" by means of creating  "a new man"--highly educated and highly tempered in his (her) economic demands. What they forgot, of course, were the sources of wisdom which for millennia spoke about human sin, ambition, jealousy, envy and, generally, what came to be known as an individual "pursuit of happiness". They forgot that human nature is hard to change and that to find this "golden path" to both high living standard and sensible consumption is a hell of a task. The ideas were sound, the execution, as is always the case with most ambitious undertakings, left a lot to be desired. Those details which contained those proverbial devils interfered. Marxism was and is well suited to use as an analytical tool, but as a stand alone economic theory--it doesn't work, or, works as not intended. It either leads to a dead-end or stops being Marxism in its original meaning. And here we can draw--and you know that I am extremely uncomfortable with this drawing--parallels with modern severest crisis of the capitalism unfolding in a front of our eyes and which is being prevented from unleashing a global war to resolve its gigantic insurmountable contradictions largely due to Russia's massive nuclear and conventional fire power. 

Remarkably, it is also Russia which, yet again, is playing with a fascinating mix of some Marxist, free enterprise and economic nationalism ideas, trying to create a new model which will lead out of the dead-end neoliberalism led humanity into. Stalin may not have had theory of "socialism", but modern Western "thinkers" do not have the theory of "capitalism" either. Same as Soviet communists, or rather, party "thinkers", who got caught in the peculiarities of the ideology and could not see the way out, modern Western thinkers are in no position to criticize--these were they who justified and helped to implement the economic ruin of the West in general, and the United States in particular, by means of creating an alternative socioeconomic universe, or wonderland, which turned out to be even more bizarre than the most outrageous visions by Marxist fundamentalists. So, here we are today facing the existential crisis of the combined West and de facto disintegration of the United States which cannot produce both effective national idea and save its economy from a complete implosion. Make no mistake, Wall Street will do just fine, for a little while longer. But with the US Dollar being stripped of its hegemony as a main reserve currency and inability of the United States to enforce its parasitic lifestyle which such status of US Dollar provided it for decades, the issue of the real wealth-creation in the United States remains unsolved. It will stay as such for a foreseeable future because not only America doesn't have an economy which can overcome such a challenge without a massive social upheaval, but because American, so called, intellectual class has no theory and is not capable of developing it. In the end, it is not that intellectual to start with. 

As Dmitry Orlov sarcastically noted, while illustrating his thoughts with one of the most ridiculously funny and... accurate memes I ever encountered:

But perhaps most importantly, it must be understood that repatriating production to the US and redeveloping the industrial base will not be a profitable venture, at least not initially. At the outset, and for at least the duration of the first Five-Year Plan, it will definitely lose money. Borrowing it is a bad idea; the federal government is already $21 trillion in debt. Instead, this money needs to be confiscated from the top 1% of the population which owns close to 40% of the country’s wealth. Doing so will yield roughly $50 trillion—more than enough to fund this project. This is best done as part of a Cultural Revolution: round up the one-percenters, make them wear dunce caps and march them through the streets while pelting them with fruits and vegetables and heaping verbal abuse on them. Oh, and take away all of their money and sentence them to a lifetime of free public service.  

American social and political structure is not designed to deal with this issue. No, sure, there are many voices which shame and even accuse America's 1%, but they only are capable to implement the consumption restrictions for the overwhelming majority of deplorables, who do not have that much to start with. One-percenters will remain impervious to any economic and social changes and will continue to buy US one-party Congress, which will do as told while American intellectual class, which is incapable of learning, will continue to create all kinds of garbage such as Critical Race Theory or Gender Studies, on one hand, while trying to debunk those on the other hand, and nearly no one (with some minor exceptions), as empirical evidence shows, will start developing some practical view on the state of the affairs, which is based on the economic realities and the way wealth is distributed. It is a very hard intellectual and scholarly work. I know 99% of present crop of what passes in the United States as intellectuals are utterly unqualified and incapable of developing sound theories. Pseudo-scientific BS and sophistry they produce aplenty, sensible solutions--a number of thinkers who could be counted on fingers of one hand. 

Soviet Union failed to develop the theory of socialism and because of that it failed. The United States failed to develop a theory of capitalism, bar some monetarist BS, and because of that the US is failing and is in at the end of the historically unprecedented de-industrialization. It is difficult to argue with this: 

A new report by EPI Senior Economist and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Research Robert E. Scott finds that President Trump’s trade policies have failed to curb offshoring—and they have not addressed the root causes of America’s growing trade deficits and the decline of American manufacturing... “The Trump administration has taken credit for ‘reshoring’ manufacturing jobs, but the data show that isn’t true. Nearly 1,800 factories have disappeared under Trump between 2016 and 2018,” said Scott. “Additionally, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods rose significantly between 2016 and 2019. In fact, the real U.S. trade deficit has increased in every year since 2016, reducing GDP growth by roughly 0.25% annually over the past three years. Compounded with the devastation left by the coronavirus pandemic, the blue collar manufacturing workers need serious help from policymakers.”

Even if to "adjust" data for anti-Trump sentiment in media and all kinds of think-tanks, there is absolutely no doubt about continuing offshoring of American jobs. Trump promised a lot, as does every US politician when it is the time to (re)elect oneself. Usually, nothing is done or if done--achieves often an opposite to intended result. It is a systemic flaw. It is not some combination of some factors here and there, which is always the case, but it is an indication of system simply not working as intended, or not working at all. It surely works in terms of profit for very few who own companies but it is not going to change, even when some traditional monetary and trade remedies are applied: taxes, tariffs, political pressure etc. They are increasingly useless and, in fact, often--detrimental to survival of the remaining true economic capacity. And there is no theory which is capable to balance out healthy profits, competition and national interest which is the interest of the majority of people in the nation. It is especially difficult to do in the country where nationhood is a cuss word and has a whole "intellectual" class being busy, both on nominal "left" (which is not left) and nominal "right", hard at work inventing essences (many a Ph.D theses and books are written on that) which will allow to keep the people who populate the country of the United States of America from formulating their true national interest. The only way to do so is to prevent them from coalescing into a true nation. 

Let's harken to 1977, so called Brezhnev Constitution:

Translation: This society--society of mature socialist public relations, in which, based on convergence of all classes and social strata, judicial and de facto equality of all nations and peoples, their brotherly cooperation a new historic community of people  has formed--Soviet people. 

Boy, talk about delusions. 11 years later this whole "new historic community of people" started to kill each-other based on racial, ethnic, religious and other grounds. Believe me, I was there when shit hit the fan. Boy, I thought to myself, when the first tanks started to roll in Baku supporting us, already stretched thin Baku garrison, desperately trying to stop chaos and violence, the theory sucks. It doesn't work. It worked neither socially nor economically, Stalin was right when stated that "without theory it is death, death, death." He was prescient. So, in the world of Critical Race Theory, and Facebook and Twitter being considered an economy, ask yourself a question: does the United States need a theory or will it go down in flames of economic and social chaos. Don't look at me, I am no theoretician, I just call shit as I see it.     

Friday, January 3, 2020

Trump Needs Some History Update.

Trump, in full accordance to US elites' MO, tweeted, in the wake of assassination of General Soleimani, next:
         Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!
I am not sure what DJT meant by this, but Iran, actually, withstood Saddam Iraq's, supported by half-the-world, onslaught for ten years and that, under the conditions which existed then, was nothing short of military victory. The stream of utter stupidity from top echelon of Washington's power ensued and even Yahoo News was forced to point out:
Earlier Friday, Trump tweeted that “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!” That was not the conclusion of the U.S. Defense Department’s 1,300-page report on the Iraq war, which was released last year. The study found that Iran was the only winner in the decades-long conflict.
What do ya know. Trump really needs some basic course in military history of the XX-XXI centuries to improve his situational awareness in order to order his minions to stop delivering absolutely delusional statements:
The initial Pentagon statement on the strike said it “was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans.” In an interview on CNN Friday morning, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a more urgent explanation, saying the attack headed off an “imminent threat to American lives.” He gave no details. Pompeo said “the world is a much safer place” with Soleimani gone. “I can assure you that Americans in the region are much safer,” Pompeo said.
It is very clear that the "strike" achieved totally opposite aims and one can only guess at this stage what will be Iran's response. There WILL BE a response. Iran is neither Iraq nor Syria, she can defend herself and she can project power in the region. So, at this stage, let's wait and see where this all leads us, but any US involvement in Iran directly can be the end of whatever is left of US power. So much for "safety".
UPDATE: Oh goodness gracious. If true, we have, indeed, imbeciles running this country. 
A convoy carrying high-profile members of the Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias, was hit by an airstrike while traveling in Baghdad, according to multiple reports.The three-car convoy was struck in the northern outskirts of the Iraqi capital in the district of al-Taji, according to an Iraqi military source cited by Reuters. Six militiamen were reported killed in the attack, with three others critically injured. It remains unclear who carried out the strike.
We'll see what is going on pretty soon. But as Andrei Raevsky reports:
This is also clearly part of the Empire’s anti-Shia strategy.
If it is, indeed, a "strategy", it is not a good one, to put it mildly. But in the end, could it be just Bibi not willing to go to jail?  

UPDATE-2: and why did they want this war for decades? My first book answers this question in full. It is the same reason why the US defeated Nazis alone, simple as that. Exceptional nations do not get humiliated, after all, do we remember how Iran humiliated Jimmy Carter? Not that Ronald Reagan was against it... Do you recall what date hostages were released by Iran? Right.... Reagan's Inauguration Day.
 

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

The Only Things That Matter. Just A Rant.

Just a rant--no structure, no concrete point, just some thoughts thrown at the fan. Ah, yes! Stock market is up, it is down, it is now up again. What a field for speculation--both pseudo-intellectual and financial. Yet, one has to look at "fundamentals": you know, the actual debt and manufacturing to get the feel. Here is the problem:
I like the word highlighted in yellow. Unexpectedly? Really? Another "analysts":
Blah-blah, blah-blah, blah-blah. Yada yada yada. Pardon my French: unexpected my ass. Me getting pregnant--that's unexpected, me winning Lottery--that is entirely unexpected, me becoming the CEO of Chrysler--talk about a complete shocking surprise. US economy realistically not growing--yeah, let's call it that, not growing--is completely expected for anyone who doesn't spend their days at Wall Street or in a front of computer playing  games or browsing porn. Indeed, what is "momentum" for manufacturing? No, really, how can one apply this momentum thing from Physics, which is Mass times Velocity, to a manufacturing sector? OK, I get it--production growth over time, right? Or, following "economic" definition of a momentum as:
Momentum is the rate of acceleration of a security's price or volume – that is, the speed at which the price is changing. Simply put, it refers to the rate of change on price movements for a particular asset and is usually defined as a rate. In technical analysis, momentum is considered an oscillator and is used to help identify trends.  
Confusing, eh? Especially fascinating is this: rate of acceleration. Oh, boy. Acceleration is a rate of change of the velocity over time, thus rate of acceleration in Physics is a... Jolt or a Jerk. 


But give those big time economic "analysts" a break, as is stated even in WiKi:
So, if the whole theory struggles to explain it, what do you expect from us, mere mortals, trying to conceptualize something which is beyond the  grasp of those financial "theorists". Anyone with even basic university level math can create a shitload of different ratios and indexes which will add to an already fully confusing and failing to predict anything "theory" which fails to see an economy as a consumer matrix in different cultures, together with the fact that at this point of time it is impossible to create any reasonable demand on a plateau of a consumer economy whose only growth today in the United States and, in general, combined West, can be achieved only by producing sex robots, blowing smoke up the ignorant asses of progressive public selling them Tesla and other so called "hi tech", and by creating an artificial demand for useless services and consumer gizmos which only dumb general public down. Period. We are at the end of financial capitalism which cannot create real wealth anymore. OK, one can built couple of skyscrapers here and there, but what else? Ah, the horrifying words of wealth distribution begin to sound. How can one create a real wealth, a real capital which is measured not in funny electronic records called "money" or in increasingly useless apps for already totally stupefied by their cell phones and social networks syphilis youth? Hm, a billion dollar question. 

And then, there is an issue of energy. How can you do anything without energy? No, not the so called "green" energy or the chimera of a renewable sources--this type of "energy" is a technological and a financial train wreck and by now, together with anthropogenic climate change, is not even a viable science and technology but an ideological hammer used for herding current and future dopamine dependent generations of ignoramuses into the concentration consumer pastures where their remaining humanity will be excreted same way as fiber and soylent green rich diet. It doesn't look good for them if present model persists. It increasingly looks like that those generations will get very good options in terms of places they can waste their increasingly virtual lives away, such as social networks with bigger and better exhibitionism factor, of course, in strictly defined politically correct barb wired limits. What those generations will not have, are good options for healthcare, education and employment, which also means families. To get that, those generations will need a lot, and I mean a lot, of energy and of this energy's correct and effective distribution. Here is how energy consumption changed in the last 200 years or so:
Now take a look at the regional spread, so to speak:
That speaks volumes, doesn't it? And the trend is easy to establish. You see the relation here? No actual wealth-creation, no real energy consumption. Real wealth creation--growth of energy consumption.  Sure, Asia-Pacific has some catching up to do in terms of its infrastructure, but it is clear where the REAL wealth is being created and where it stopped to be created. I, of course, am not talking about operations on the stock market, they do consume some energy, which goes into operation of the computers and software designed for speculation and blowing bubbles, but other than that, this is as much as it goes into the wealth creation. I am sure the energy required to build or repair one major bridge or to produce a single commercial aircraft by far exceeds energy required for a stock buyback which leads to increased "capitalization" of some company. Like a real estate market--one day your house is worth $200,000, next year it is already $260,000. You see--no effort at all and $60,000 has been created out of pure air. But that is what this graph demonstrates--real economic growth requires energy, when there is no growth, there is no energy consumption increase, even when one considers real energy-saving technologies, of which yours truly is an enthusiastic supporter. 

Everything we do in our lives requires energy. Creating things is the most energy-expensive activity. Yet, if you look at the graph, population of North America and Europe was growing (will omit here how) steadily in the last 15 years, yet, energy consumption remained rather flat. It is a problem, the system capped real wealth-creation and the runaway process of social stratification began in earnest. But, but even when sensible federal or state's level decisions are made, they still end with this:
Or with San-Francisco which is by now is a certified shit-hole, same goes for many parts of L.A. And, in general, no one can afford to live anymore in NYC or pretty much any large American urban agglomeration, unless it is Deep South, but even there. In other words, the United States allegedly has a shitload of money, allegedly its economy grows, but it doesn't and things deteriorate practically everywhere. Like in this report:
It is not just the issue of mood or narrative, there is a growing realization in the United States that the country is in trouble. But even abundance of energy and "money" still cannot prevent a contraction of the only thing which matters--real economy and everything that follows with it, real, not part time retail, jobs and wages. The system is utterly broken and there is NO workable solution to this quagmire. The energy consumption graphs will remain flat, until they will begin to dive and the dive is coming. It is a perfect storm of corrupt elites, collapse of education and upbringing, and of radical de-industrialization committed in pursuit of financial chimera. It is what it is. Only nations which consume (and produce, that goes without saying) actual energy will eventually progress towards finding or discovering new sources of it and will push towards new frontiers of not only material wealth, which is important, of course it is, but will see new horizons for human development which will be in space travel and colonization of Solar System. For that, one will have to have sources of vast energy, real advanced manufacturing sector and population which sees a larger purpose in life than mere accumulation of wealth.  

The secret to it? Consumer matrix, most normal people eventually understand that material wealth satisfies only to a certain point and for many this certain point is usually fairly well-defined: it is decent housing, decent transportation and....You add your points. Good thing to discuss.

UPDATE:  No comments. All to the point.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

A New Product.

B (Bernhard) of Moon Of Alabama posted today a good review of the situation between Qatar and KSA (and others) and this point by him should be explained:
  
It has friendly relations with Russia. Yesterday the Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani talked with President Putin:
Russian-Qatari cooperation, primarily in the trade, economic and investment areas, was discussed, and the results of the meeting of the bilateral Intergovernmental Commission in April 2017 were highly praised.
International issues were also discussed. Vladimir Putin reaffirmed Russia’s principled position in favor of settling crises by political and diplomatic means, through dialogue.
Translation: Qatar offered additional money for Russia's support. A preliminary deal was made but there was no promise (yet) of full Russian support in a military conflict.
B makes an excellent point here in a sense that, far from being damaging, say for Russia, this Saudi-Qatari conflict may present yet another opportunity for marketing of one of the most potent, if not THE most potent, Russia's export products--geopolitical stabilization. One may ask, what is that. Well, you can see this product now on full display in Syria. Consider now where was Syria and Assad's government two years ago and where it is now. In 2015, despite efforts by Iran and Hizbullah, Syria still struggled with ISIS and the calls to attack Assad were getting louder in Washington. This all changed with Russia Air-Space Forces and Forces of Special Operations (SSO) being deployed to Syria. As Assad himself admitted two days ago: the worst is behind us. 

Nobody with even rudimentary sense of reality would debate the fact of Bashar Assad being a pivotal figure for Syria not only for now, but for the future. While thesis (a popular one), that Russia doesn't abandon her allies (which is not entirely true--remember Najibullah), may be used as currently valid explanation for Russia sticking with Assad, there is no denial of the fact here that current Russia is not Soviet Union and she pursues objectives in her foreign policy which are different from those of the USSR. Apart from fostering relations with other nations, Russia, using Corben Dallas' dictum "you play soft, we play soft, you play hard, we play hard", likes not only to be flexible but also to be compensated for what she does, or sells, if one wishes. Russia sells stability and this commodity is hot-hot-hot. Forget about Libya where Russia is already establishing relations with General Haftar, looks like, considering the speed with which Qatari Foreign Minister called Lavrov, Russia is in for the big time and money because Qatar, which is more "competitive" than Russia, surely would love to have this very Russia on her side for a simple reason--Qatar wants to preserve herself (which is only natural) and Russia already has a pretty impressive record of propping up governments which are due for a "regime change". 

Cynical? You bet, but can one imagine what price an enormously rich Qatar would be willing to pay to Russia for her making some moves which would stabilize Qatari ruling elite and provide some guarantees? Mind you, there will be more than money involved but a lot, and I mean a lot, of geopolitical favors, including some things related to terrorism, of which Qatar is a big supporter. Corben Dallas stratagem in action--chose you own play, soft or hard. This is how big geopolitical realism is practiced. This is also how nations are stabilized, the contracts and money follow. It is also a great lesson in transition between hard power to a soft one and vice-versa. In the world which is increasingly destabilized due to wholesale crisis of the Pax Americana "system" such an ability is a truly hot commodity.