Even Without ...

... "disclosures" anyone with a basic knowledge of math and Pentagon's MO could figure out that the US was in a sustainment debacle. 

Pentagon investigators administered polygraph tests to dozens of military officers and civilian employees in August as part of an investigation into disclosures about the nation’s dwindling weapons stockpiles. The polygraph tests, first reported by The New York Times last week, followed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s announcement in July that the Pentagon was forming a joint task force with the Department of Justice to identify and prosecute what he called the “unauthorized disclosure ​of sensitive” information to the press.

It doesn't take a genius, especially after observing US military-industrial complex convulsions with supplies for 404 that the US cannot sustain a serious war with the opponent such as Russia for more than a month. After that it will collapse. While Iran is certainly not Russia it is still the first serious opponent the United States military encountered in the mano a mano mode and it buckled after roughly two months. 

The other critical tell-tale sign is that the whole foundation of the US war-fighting capability was and is "shock and awe" with coming in with massive strikes trying to overwhelm the enemy because the US military is not built for sustained large scale operation. Famous "counter-offensive" in 2023 in 404 anyone? The whole thing bears the hallmark of the US military planning--rushed, oblivious to COFM and lacking the grasp of a composition of modern battlefield. Yet, very sure of own invincibility, despite all indications to the contrary. So, after basic counting it was clear that the Pentagon will run out of "ammo" really fast. And it did. This whole thing with polygraphs is more for rooting out Hegseth's opponents in order to do the only thing this "officer" can do--manage perceptions of himself as a great military leader and possible candidate for the POTUS run, than managing organization properly. The fact that he is uneducated and incompetent dumbass is a secondary consideration in the American military-political circus.