Reading The Signs.

US journos suffer from the lack of reading comprehension. I also noted that their interest in Russia is, how to put it politely, arose to an incredible height because headlines are dominated by Russia. Especially after the sober reality of oil dawned on those cretins today and the desire to hail Trump's "brokerage" and Russia's "defeat" evaporated over night. Now they report this:

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is ready to discuss hypersonic missiles and other arms control issues with the United States as part of wider discussions about strategic stability, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday. Cold War-era arms control agreements have been in jeopardy as Russia's relations with the West have soured in recent years. In August 2019, the United States pulled out of a landmark strategic arms accord, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), citing Russian non-compliance. Both countries are developing hypersonic missiles to expand their defence capabilities, with Russian President Vladimir Putin overseeing a test in Crimea in early January.

I wrote on this issue many times, I might as well reiterate. Discussing and acting on something is not the same--this is the thing which journos seem unable to grasp. This is not to mention the fact that Russia IS NOT "developing" hypersonic missiles but long time ago developed them and have them not in IOC (Initial Operation Capabilities) mode but deployed in full combat mode, be that hypersonic Kinzhal or strategic Avangard. The only other hypersonic system, 3M22 Zircon, is in final testing and will be accepted for full combat deployment by 2022 (in Russian). This is what those journos do not understand: the United States has absolutely nothing, zero, to counter it with since has NO viable hypersonic weapon systems and will not have those for at least a decade. Yet, they note:

Lavrov said he wanted to speak to U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo again after receiving a call from him a couple of days ago during which he said Pompeo touched on resuming talks on arms control and strategic stability. "We welcome such interest from our American partners because we have encouraged them to address these problems more actively for a long time," Lavrov said. "We are open to talks about new promising developments, including hypersonic weapons in the context of, and I emphasise this especially, taking into account all aspects and factors that influence strategic stability, without exception."

Lavrov statement is so loaded, as were numerous calls by Trump to Moscow last few days, that I am not sure those people in Reuters can actually "unpack" it. Russia, as an example, can reduce the number of Avangards but will demand in return some things which for the US will be very painful (emotionally) to deliver. And then again, it was Pompeo who called Moscow, not the other way around. "Strategic stability" is not just the matter of weapons which Russia has and more are coming: some sources state now that nuclear-powered Petrel is also a hypersonic weapon (M=6+) on terminal, while capable of loitering for days before attacking. Strategic stability is about the balance, quid-pro-quo, and Russia, certainly, has some things she needs from the US--first one which comes to mind is a Nord Stream-2, the second one, I think, is for the US to foot the bill for Ukraine. You know old saying: you broke it, you own it. So, the United States finds itself in an unfamiliar territory where it has to trade huge geopolitical favors for reduction of weapons which Russia may or may not agree to reduce the way the United States wants. Expect a lot of butt-hurt, and I mean a lot. But as I wrote more than two years ago:

It was over for some time now, it just took Putin’s speech to demonstrate the good old Al Capone truism that one can get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone. After all, Russia did try a kind word alone, it didn’t work and the United States has only itself to blame.

We can see now how this "discussion" is going to proceed. Yeah, the tables are turning in such a funny way as of lately. But as Kubler-Ross model predicts, we find the United States in a Stage 3--Bargaining--with Stage 4, Depression (economic and psychological), following very close after the bargaining will be completed. It will be Stage 5, though, at which Noblesse Oblige will kick in full force, because, as I already stated many times, Russia IS NOT seeking the collapse and disintegration of the United States. In fact, Russia seeks the United States as a predictable, stable geopolitical entity. Why so--is a huge, monstrous, separate topic, which I may elaborate upon later. After all, it is the part of my third book. In related news, Brent today fell another 6%, while WTI dropped 9%. Urals, on the other hand, rose 19%. Where's Bloomberg when you need one, wink, wink.

Bolton Speaks.

OK, John Bolton gave Russia, namely her National Security Council head, Nikolai Patrushev, the last Chinese warning against meddling in US elections--we now know that Russia already has evil plans to "meddle" in these elections by means of investing another 97 cents or, maybe whole 97 dollars, in trying to subvert American democracy and promote communism. We know that because US media, known for their integrity and honesty, talk about this all the time. So Bolton was very stern while warning evil Russkies against that.   

Then Bolton added that:

Patrushev had not sought Russian waivers on sanctions during their talks, he added.  

I can hear a surprising, and desperate in some quarters, "Wha-a-a-a-t?" from most (not all) American Russia "scholars" and "journalists" who still reside in their make-believe universe and are still waiting for Russia to crawl back to their feet begging for mercy. Yes, any minute now. But jokes aside, Bolton was not meeting Patrushev for this BS. Bolton might be an aggressive neocon of sorts but he is not completely stupid and is at least aware of the real score. Here what is at stake:

Bolton, a critic of the New START treaty agreed during Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration, said the two sides did not set a date for deciding what to do about the treaty due to expire in 2021.“We are very very early in the process of considering what we are going to do with New START or the INF treaty,” he said, referring to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces pact. 

That is warmer, much warmer. The United States wants to discuss START only, what a surprise, on American conditions. US thinks it can negotiate from this position, but, of course it cannot since it is not in such position anymore. Not for quite some time. These conditions could be expressed (it is not mine) in this simple phrase: You, Russia, reduce weapons which you have in exchange for us, America, reducing weapons which we don't have. This is not going to fly, obviously. So, because the United States realistically cannot close the gap in, at least openly disclosed, weaponry any time soon, it will try the last, it thinks trump (sorry), card it has--economic warfare on a big scale. That, plus deploying whatever it has all around Russia waiting for the next Gorby or drunkard like Boris emerge from the deep recesses of Russia's political cellar. Russians do not really give a damn as long as somebody doesn't do a really stupid thing and tries going "hot". After watching performance by Mr. Mudd and, considering his very high post in national security hierarchy, I have to allow for a non-zero probability of some spoiled brats on the top pushing, out of noble indignation with those nasty evil Russkies, for a military solution. 

So, what's left? Well, Patrushev is an immensely powerful figure in Russia and is more than authorized to explain to Bolton how real situation looks like. Of course, as always there will be a lot of PR on the US side and Russia will continue to seek compromises when necessary but, I am sure, Bolton was presented with the case in this first meeting that either it is quid-pro-quo or nothing at all. Choice is America's. I think the bargaining started but it is not about Grand Deal--time for that is long gone. How to call this process? Feel free to try your imagination. 

UPDATE: Ah, speak of the devil, or as Russians say--the grand piano in the bushes (Royal' V Kustakh). I don't hold Leonid Bershidsky in any serious regard in terms of serious global and economic policies--one can not expect any competence from liberal Russian bankster and journo by (Western) education, but even he has to admit:

As the U.S. begins to consider an all-out economic war, the two strategic questions it needs to answer are: what it is willing to pay to extract any concessions from the Putin government at all, and how long it is prepared to wait. Macroeconomically, Russia, with unemployment at a record low, modest inflation and $400 billion of international reserves, is unlikely to collapse before the U.S. unleashes a global energy or debt crisis that could prompt its allies to desert it. If less than maximum pain is applied, Russia could manage for years with relatively low growth. That is the basis for Putin’s calculations. It bodes badly for the current direction of U.S. policy. If Washington inflicts as much pain as it can — and nothing changes — it will be a painful failure for the superpower.

The point I am trying to make for years now is not just that US and its political and so called "intellectual" classes are absolutely unaware of real Russia--that is not really the news--US Russian "studies" field is pathetic. The point is that they are unaware about American real standing, military and economic, globally. That's the problem. The problem also with the Western geopolitical calculus--it simply doesn't work. As per "macroeconomic"--each time when I hear (read) this economic psychobabble, I cringe.