LOL And The "Change Of Plans".

So, we get the "clue" now about the leaks which are most likely deliberate and the largest "clue" is CNN "report". 

Highly classified Pentagon documents leaked online in recent weeks have provided a rare window into how the US spies on allies and foes alike, deeply rattling US officials, who fear the revelations could jeopardize sensitive sources and compromise important foreign relationships. Some of the documents, which US officials say are authentic, expose the extent of US eavesdropping on key allies, including South Korea, Israel and Ukraine. Others reveal the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group, largely through intercepted communications and human sources, which could now be cut off or put in danger. Still others divulge key weaknesses in Ukrainian weaponry, air defense, and battalion sizes and readiness at a critical point in the war, as Ukrainian forces gear up to launch a counteroffensive against the Russians – and just as the US and Ukraine have begun to develop a more mutually trusting relationship over intelligence-sharing. Ukraine has already altered some of its military plans because of the leak, a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN. 

There you have it. Two possibilities:

1. Pathetic attempt at trying to confuse Russia before some moves along the front, aka "counter-offensive"--a euphemism for the slaughter of the remaining forces of VSU;

2. A likely preparation of the "exit" for Biden Admin who is now "informed" that once this "counter-offensive" starts it may end for 404 somewhere west of Kiev. 

Yes, Washington needs the way out, because all of its plans re: Russia failed miserably and the US (and NATO as a whole) never had a chance to defeat Russia militarily--different leagues. 

Yet, some clowns in the US, namely the collection of ignorant propagandists from The Jamestown Foundation for some reason decided that they know things about Arctic. Hint: they don't. Nor do they understand modern geopolitics starting from their big honcho General Breedlove to the collection of the experts who wouldn't know shit from shinola. But still, in the desperate attempt to allay their severe butthurt they state this))

In a development with enormous consequences both for international trade and for Moscow’s control of its far-flung regions across the country’s northern third—places not linked to the center by roads or railways—the Russian Federation is rapidly losing its historical dominance over the Northern Sea Route to China and Turkey. Indeed, these two countries are now building icebreakers at record rates, as the Kremlin has had to delay, or even cancel, its plans for new Russian icebreakers due to budgetary shortfalls arising from President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, corruption and other problems in the Russian shipbuilding industry. Additionally, the industry is hampered by the competing demands of Russian admirals who want a new aircraft carrier rather than icebreakers and security officials who are more concerned with ensuring Moscow’s links to locations across the Russian North than with keeping the Northern Sea Route (NSR) open (Topwar.ru, November 20, 2020; Window on Eurasia, May 30, 2021). This development has caught many observers off guard, as they assumed that changes in climate, something that has reduced ice coverage in the Arctic, has reduced the importance of icebreakers as the key element of control for the NSR. But that assumption rests on a misconception about the nature of climate change.  

For starters--anyone who references such a fanboys' dumpster as Topwar should be immediately disqualified from expressing opinion on any technological matter, let alone Arctic. But, since Russia is "rapidly losing its historical dominance", one should simply ask the question to the authors of this drivel if they have a clue on what it takes to build this:

Russia has three of them already and as the United States Navy--a much more competent organization, unlike the collection of political "scientists" in The Jamestown Foundation--notes:

The nuclear-powered icebreakers Arktika and Sibir—the first two in a class of five—are fully operational and were accepted into Russia’s Rosatomflot fleet in late 2021 and early 2022. Both are escorting commercial cargo vessels in winter sea ice along the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—Russia’s National Arctic Waterway. These new icebreakers, the world’s largest and most powerful, each have two RITM-200 light-water reactors that produce pressurized water and steam for a turboelectric generating plant. The steam turbines drive two turbogenerators that produce electricity for three electric motors; the motors drive three shafts and four-bladed propellers. The system produces 80,000 maximum shaft horsepower, the most power on board any icebreaker, and the Arktika can break 9 feet of level sea ice at a continuous 1.5 to 2 knot speed, as reported by her designers. Few sea ice features will slow or stop this ship from continuous forward motion with such high available power and a large displacement of 33,530 deadweight tons. Also notable are the 569-foot length and 112-foot beam, which creates a wide track astern for ships under ice escort.

Now, can you imagine explaining to these morons what RITM-200 let alone RITM-400 are? I know, I know. So, if you don't have nuclear ice-breakers, especially the ones which will provide commercially viable speed of 12 knots in the ice of up to 3 meters thick--forget about commercial use of Arctic. Neither China nor, let alone, Turkey, are even in the same league with Russia. Especially against this vessel, which is being built at Zvezda:

And then, of course, there is this teeny-weeny "issue" of this pesky Russian Northern Fleet which operates things like this:

 

But I am sure that Turkey and China will catch up, right? After all, it is so easy, especially developing high altitude and polar navigation, those nuclear reactors... ah, wait... for some reason Russians build nuclear power stations both in Turkey and in China... ah, never mind, wink, wink;) This is you Monday primer.

Of Course, He Does.

Was there ever any doubt?

The city of Artyomovsk, or Bakhmut as it is known by Ukraine, is of more symbolic than operational importance, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has claimed. The battle for Artyomovsk – a major stronghold and logistics hub for Kiev’s forces in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) – has continued for months, being described by some as the fiercest in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Asked about the city during his trip to Jordan later the same day, Austin suggested that the city was “more of a symbolic value than it is [of] strategic and operational value,” according to Reuters. Yan Gagin, an adviser to the DPR’s acting head Denis Pushilin, said on Monday that Russian forces have encircled the key city, trapping around 10,000 Ukrainian troops inside. The Pentagon chief, however, said he wouldn’t consider it a strategic setback if  Ukrainian troops decide to reposition themselves on new defense lines west of the city.

Well, Monty Python saw this decades and miles away. 

Now those brilliant "operational minds" from London and D.C. command those clowns from VSU's General Staff to throw their best reserves in a desperate effort to maintain some opening for Bakhmut cauldron, which makes little sense since they lose those there in industrial quantities under incessant Russian fire, since Russian Army has now a full fire control (aka operational envelopment) of the whole cauldron and last remaining opening. 

Meanwhile Russia continues the removal of Western NGOs, finally, and the new kid on a chopping block is Transparency International. 

МОСКВА, 6 мар — РИА Новости. Генеральная прокуратура признала нежелательной деятельность Transparеncy International на территории России, сообщило ведомство в своем Telegram-канале.Подчеркивается, что такое решение принято после изучения материалов, поступивших в надзорный орган.

Translation: MOSCOW, March 6 - RIA Novosti. The Prosecutor General's Office recognized the activities of Transparency International in Russia as undesirable, the agency said in its Telegram channel. It is emphasized that this decision was made after studying the materials received by the supervisory authority.

Russia also stopped providing info about her Armed Forces to OSCE (in Russian) and that also is about time. Generally speaking, the whole spectrum of West dominated institutions from OSCE to UN should be completely destroyed and then reconstituted in some other form, e.g. new UN and its HQ should be removed from NYC. UN is an absolutely corrupt organization and is due for major cleaning operation for a very long time. It is a travesty that such economic and military pip squeaks as France and UK are permanent members of UN SC, while India with her massive economy and serious military and nukes is not. Time to rethink UN. I am also on record that International Olympic movement is dead and stinks to heaven with its corruption--that thing should simply be killed off. I omit here pure propaganda BSers such as IMF and WB. 

James Kunstler today brilliantly described the issue:

We’re waiting for financial markets, banks, and monies to blow, as an engine will when submerged in water. It can’t not happen, though every known device has been deployed to keep up appearances. The credibility of finance was thrown overboard a long time ago. Capital was sloshing around in the bilges as the ship heaved and pitched in the angry waters, and it had to go somewhere. The next turn will be when you go looking for where it went and you discover to your nauseated chagrin that the capital is just… gone! Through some legerdemain of physics, it disappeared… turned into a kind of anti-matter… fell through a black hole (possibly ripped by that iceberg), or up the smokestacks, like it was never there at all.

Parallels with Titanic are not just warranted, but irresistible. This is your Monday primer.

Of Course, They Lie.

Is water wet, is fire hot? Sure. Does Tony Blinken lie? Yes, always. 

Russia is calling on the administration of US President Joe Biden to avoid further escalation, Zakharova said, adding that Moscow still wants to defuse tensions and is open to talking to the US at various levels. However, the US is openly lying about maintaining contacts with Russia, Zakharova claimed. Last week, Price said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken still keeps in touch with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Zakharova called the statement a “banal lie,” adding that the last time the two diplomats spoke was July 29.

This is the only thing they know how to. Blinken is a pathetic parody on diplomat, as, though, most of State Department is. But a brief review of Biden Administration reveals that most people there are incompetent. Per Zakharova's statement about" 

Washington’s “dangerous and short-sighted policy” has put it “on the brink of a direct clash” with Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Monday, responding to US State Department spokesman Ned Price, who blamed Russia last week for making relations between the two countries “unstable and unpredictable.”

It is not about a direct clash at the conventional battlefield, because the US simply has no resources or force structure to fight a real conventional war in Europe against Russia without sustaining a catastrophic defeat. Zakharova means what I speak about for many years--as much as such a conventional war between NATO and Russia will be horrifying--it is well documented America's bias towards nuclear weapons'  practically every time the US encounters difficulty (that means always) in conducting large scale operations. 

Now, to yet another "voenkor" running with this BS about Gerasimov. This time it is Mr. Pegov of Wargonzo. Thanks to Martin Berndt for pointing this out.

On Telegram Semen Pegov (War Gonzo) wrote yesterday that every high Russian official who traveled to Donbass was a target and a lot of lower ranking officials in the region have been killed. The Russians know what's going on. Gerasimov missed the parade on the Red Square this year. He probably was wounded. Those were the rumors then.  

Now, let me explain. Semen Pegov maybe considered by some a hot shot and a "combat veteran", especially when parading himself in military fatigue, but Semen Pegov is a graduate of the Smolensk State University, and you may have guessed it, Department of Journalism (in Russian), and apart from his "combat" exploits, he never served in the armed forces in any capacity, let alone officer capacity and has zero experience with any operational matter or high-end military technology. So, as any "voenkor" (a euphemism for BSer) his professional qualifications in purely military aspect are limited to reporting the suffering of civilians and tactical minutiae as provided by primarily low level personnel and traditional front-line rumors. 

In other words, Pegov has zero understanding of the subject he is talking about, and this subject is an operational and strategic level ISR and means of countering it. If he doesn't understand who the Chief of General Staff of Russia is and what goes into provision of his safety and security when he enters combat zone, there is absolutely nothing to talk about with him. E.g. Here is Mr. Shoigu flying over Baltic Sea:

And this is just the event in the air. Pegov, due to his "journalism" pedigree and never holding any clearance, doesn't know what forces (naryad sil) are engaged in provision of security for a person of such rank, not to mention that something tells me that ground screen forces for Gerasimov are much better than anything US or UK, let alone 404, could have placed on the ground even if they wanted to kill Gerasimov. But then again, can you explain to a graduate of "journalism" faculty and former editor of some artsy magazine what real C4ISR is? You know the answer, especially when it comes to the guy who fought his depression by getting into the conflict zones and is a definite adrenaline junkie. 

Did the US know where Gerasimov go? Yes, but Russia has a good reliable targeting for NATO HQs in Brussels and Pentagon and unlike NATO, Russia can hit those anytime and nothing could be done about it. So, my suggestion to Pegov and all those "analysts" from WarGonzo is to concentrate on what they do reasonably well--sell emotionally charged war footage and reporting to laypeople, and try to stay away from issues they have no clue about. After all, derogatory term "voenkorschina" appeared in Russia for a reason. It is a euphemism for selling primarily pseudo-military BS to housewives and househasbands, who are easily impressed by explosions, military uniform and as any normal people, yours truly included, react emotionally to war crimes and devastation of the war. In the end, if you want to know if some "voenkor" is a real deal (most of them are civilian BSers) ask them if they know how the resolution of uncertainties is done. Make sure to mention to them that it is directly related to Gerasimov's visit to the front-lines. 

Now we have to keep in mind this unfolding story:

Russia would consider a Greek plan to provide Ukraine with S-300 air defense systems previously acquired from Moscow to be an “openly hostile act,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday. Greece has mulled sending such Soviet-era arms to Kiev if the US agrees to replace them with MIM-104 Patriot systems. “That would be a gross violation of…Russian-Greek…agreements on military and technical cooperation,” Zakharova stated, adding that both the 1995 and 2013 treaties signed by Moscow and Athens in this field “explicitly forbid Greece to re-export the military equipment supplied by Russia without Moscow’s consent.” “Trampling on its commitments under the treaties is bound to have consequences,” the ministry’s spokeswoman warned. Such a move would also conflict with the position of most Greeks, she said, adding that 70% of Greeks oppose “pumping Ukraine with arms” according to polls.

I am going to abstain from commenting on the moral side of the issue, but, again, read my lips--Europe is US' bitch and she will do as told, period. Whether people like it or not, I warned about this for years and Saker wrote an excellent piece on this recently. Europe IS being de-industrialized and will be poor, also in progress, and a cultural wasteland. And don't tell me that I didn't warn you. This is your Monday primer.

Just Disband It Already.

So called International Olympic Movement is utterly corrupt and politicized. I am on record for years--the whole of IOC should be disbanded, together with many other Western "institutions". The latest confirms it:

The US Olympic and Paralympic Committee (USOPC) supports the idea of allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics, as long as they don’t participate under their nations’ flags or use their colors. The stance was confirmed by the organization’s chair, Susanne Lyons. Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from global competitions in numerous sports after federations followed an International Olympic Committee (IOC) recommendation to take action when the military operation in Ukraine was launched in late February. Last week, however, a declaration after an IOC Summit in Switzerland paved the way for athletes from the two countries to return, citing the need to ensure sport is not undermined by politics. The USOPC has similarly changed tack after supporting the initial IOC recommendation and subsequent ban for Russians and Belarusians. 

The whole thing is completely discredited as yet another West's ideological and propaganda instrument and I hope Russia will allow individual sportsmen to decide their own fate. If they feel like competing under the IOC door rag--that should be their independent decision. Read my lips: Olympic Movement is dead and its corpse stinks, it has to be buried. 

Now to a more important issues. As I also state for years--the first US hypersonic weapon most likely will be some sort of variation of Russian air-launched air-ballistic Kinzhal.  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force said it conducted the first test launch of a fully operational prototype of its hypersonic Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon. The test of the Lockheed Martin-made AGM-183A ARRW, which took place Dec. 9 off the coast of Southern California, was deemed successful, the Air Force’s 96th Test Wing said in a statement Monday. It was carried out by the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base in California. The prototype hypersonic missile was launched from a B-52H Stratofortress bomber, the wing said, and then rapidly accelerated to greater than five times the speed of sound. The missile then completed its planned flight path and detonated, the wing said, and the early results show all the test’s objectives were met. “The ARRW team successfully designed and tested an air-launched hypersonic missile in five years,” Brig. Gen. Jason Bartolomei, program executive officer for the Air Force’s armament directorate. “I am immensely proud of the tenacity and dedication this team has shown to provide a vital capability to our warfighter.”

The details on capabilities and parameters of the testing of the prototype haven't been disclosed, but it looks like the US reached an important milestone. But we'll see when these program will reach a maturity for IOC. 

In related news WaPo's journo-trash and "experts" grudgingly try to admit Crimea's reality:

Fierce claims to Crimea highlight slim chance of Russia-Ukraine peace deal

WaPo is an exhibit A why one cannot communicate with the US establishment, especially media, stuffed with ignoramuses and whores, literally and figuratively--there are no normal people there. Here is your short Monday primer.

You Cannot Fix Stupid.

I don't know, why this is a thing in the West: dramaturgists, actors, producers have a view and comment on warfare. Get a load of this:

What are hypersonic missiles? Russia's newest weapon in Ukraine war.

This is written by this girl who wouldn't know shit from shinola. But that is not what is peculiar about this. Literally, 20 minutes before me posting this, this same article went under the title: Russia is short on ammo. Evidently, Russia's use of Kinzhals was supposed to be the indicator of Russia being "short" on whatever weapons. They changed the title at the last moment. I omit here discussing any substance of this sophomoric propaganda crap. 

But one should certainly recognize the accuracy of Russia's intel when the abandoned hotel next to shopping center in Kiev goes huge Kaboom  once either Iskander or Kinzhal gets to it and you can see how stored ammo explodes. 

I also posted some comments today on YouTube and I make it available, with the help of my wonderful patrons, for everyone. 

So, here is a primer for this Monday. Crude at $300 per barrel in the West, woo-hoo, they really want to bury us all (in the West, I mean). 

UPDATE: A-ha, I found it--that's the title on the "front page". 

In related news, Russia is short on crude oil and beer.