Fast Thoughts On The Issue Of Projection (and Learning). A Bit of a Rant.

I would have loved to write articles on geoeconomics and some geopolitics, discuss some industries and write about culture, in the end--writing sophomoric prose on jazz fusion and progressive rock would have been wonderful. I was forced, literally, by circumstances to recall (yes, like in Total Recall) my past life and start writing... well, see the very beginning of this blog. Each time I want to concentrate on some large, important matter, I find myself explaining pretty basic things, such as this tragedy with Russian IL-20. 

Here is one thing which people should understand about me--I don't know everything. What I do have, however, is the ability (this comes with the territory for most former military professionals) to single out immediately a real professional. Not just with the military rank (after all, Colonel of Medical Service doesn't know how weapon systems integrate or how to calculate probability of a leaker) but with actual technological, tactical and operational background. I can single (recognize) these people out most of the time. So, my advantage here is that I am "jamming resistant" (that is to say BS-resistant) to a certain degree. But even I have my limits intellectually and emotionally in my attempts to bridge the gap between Western (and American) and Russian understanding of things. That is why I have to state this:

American political reality and decision making processes DO NOT correlate with the same in Russia. As this latest event with IL-20 has shown, projecting American, or generally Western, experiences onto Russian geopolitical and military reality is useless. It only confuses people, many of them honest and decent people, others simply deranged, who must keep in mind Sir Bernard Pares' almost 90 years old truism about Russia, if those people want to understand:

"And knowledge alone is not enough without understanding, which is much more hardly won. To no country does this apply more than to Russia....This gap has to be filled, or will it cost us dear."

And that is why sometimes I get frustrated when totality of facts still fails to create a reliable whole picture for so many. No greater gap exists between American patriots who, understanding the baneful effect of pro-Israeli NGOs on the formulation of the US domestic and, especially, foreign policies fail to recognize that:

1. Same doesn't apply to Russia (never did);

2. Modern Russian history (20th century on) was not formed by Jewish influences--they were merely few among a myriad of other complex geopolitical, cultural and economic factors which brought Russia to a catastrophic "reset" in 1917--first through open palace coup by Russian liberals (February) and then Civil War when in October, Bolsheviks literally picked the power from the ground--nobody wanted it anymore by then. Many people still do not know that first Sovnarkom was overwhelmingly Slavic, many with nobility ranks and the only Jew who was present there was Leon Trotsky.

Only knowing, as in having the ability to see not just facts but reliable causality behind them, will one be able to see Russia in a proper light and understand her. Granted one also learns Russian language, reads massive Russian literature, especially 19th Century classics, travels to Russia often, talks to real people (not urbanite hipsters), and then, discarding pretty much anything (almost) what is taught about Russia in the Western universities, will one be able to start gaining this Pares' understanding. I write about this non-stop for almost five years now. Russians do not play for media-appearances when it comes to national security and war, they play for result--such is Russia's history. And no, there is no such "animal" in Russia as Christian Zionism, a purely Anglo thing, which in US provides a good breeding ground for American neoconservatism ideas and loyalty to Israel, as US Vice President Mike Pence so enthusiastically supported Israel at CUFI gathering in 2017. Particular military breed of American Old Testament Christianity doesn't help either. These things are completely alien to Russians, their country and their history and bar some unhinged Russian "patriots" (and ignoramuses), Russians do not blame Jews for GULAG, nor do they blame them for October 1917 Revolution. 

This fact that some arrangement between Jews and other people, other than it is set up in the United States, can exist is simply beyond the grasp of many in the US. And the nauseating tune continues to play non-stop. Jews control everything in Russia--no they don't, Putin bows to Jews--no he doesn't, Jews are responsible for millions (tens of millions, hundreds...) Russians killed in GULAG--no, they are not. There is no New York, and with it Brooklyn and Brighton Beach, in Russia, there is a 850 years old young Russian city of Moscow, there is a newbie (merely 315 years old) St. Petersburg, there is massive Russian culture which has some Jewish influences, but it is Russian culture, which also has Tatar, Caucasus (Rasul Gamzatov, anyone?), yes, Jewish--incomparable Yan Frenkel, Armenian--Arno Babajanyan, Azeri-Muslim Magomaev influences, and I can continue this list--all that was completely integrated in a larger Russia culture and remains there as an everyday given for most Russians. 

Russian culture, especially Russian culture of the 20th and 21st centuries is UNKNOWN in the West, bar some Hollywood caricatures and fairy tales (well, Bullshit) by Western court "dissidents" such as Solzhenitsyn or, today, whoever passes as Russian "expert" in whatever media sewage outlets they work for. And here is a thought: no, I am not going to rub into faces of many, who unleashed hysteria after IL-20's tragedy, the fact that what happened today (yesterday) with Russia delivering S-300 and more to Syria was predicted by me within first three-four hours of tragedy. No, I just want to say--stop projecting, Russia is NOT the United Sates and the way the process of the decision making is set up in Moscow is something US political system has no experiences with. No, Putin is not a hostage of Russian military--decision on Syria's air defense was made, most likely, within first minutes of reports on IL-20s loss. And no, calling for thorough investigation, for a bullet proof case, is evidently not in American media tradition anymore. But here is the main strategic trick:

Russia needs Israel, healthy, prosperous and reasonably well-protected but also reasonably well-behaved. Why it is so--is a long story but I totally agree with this Russian position. How all those complex ME issues will be resolved, well--the proof is in the pudding: many Arabs know that Kremlin doesn't hold AIPAC conferences in Moscow, nor there are Christian Zionists in Russia, unless, of course, they travel to Russia from the West. That in itself makes Russia a prefect arbiter in the ME and... but I will simply stop here for now. A scale of global realignment today is such, that many simply fail to comprehend that their, often justified, scores with Israel are but a small fish in the ocean of a great turbulence and it takes this Putin's wisdom and cool to guide Russia where she and the world needs to be. In the end, Russia consistently continues to be a cat.   

Some Fast Thoughts On IL-20.

And so it starts. Russia must attack Israel, no—she must obliterate it, Putin is "soft", the world is coming to an end, Zionists are in control of Kremlin, Russia turns another cheek. And on, and on, and on. The chorus of noble warriors with the evils of Zionism is getting louder with each day. Behind this hysteria surrounding the tragedy of Russian VKS' IL-20 somehow crucial and widely publicized news have been ignored completely. It is no surprise they were ignored by all kinds of "specialists" in strategy, politics, and armchair strategists (I am one myself). The news are pretty simple. Lt. General Alexander Ionov, former Deputy Chief of Main Staff of Russian Air Force from 1991 through 2001, stated to popular Russian media Zvezda that it is guaranteed that Syrian Air Defense forces were not provided with compatible IFF equipment and codes. 

For those who don't know what IFF (Interrogator Friend-Foe) is—it is electronic system which provides both a defense against friendly fire and easy radar identification of friendly forces. On older radar friendly forces would usually be marked with arches (below or above) radar marks of the targets and that is how one knows how not to shoot at them. The IFF technology is extremely sensitive as are the "codes" on which it runs. It wasn't provided, and for a good reason, to Syrian Forces. So, the question, in this case which will be asked by laymen is: but what about "full integration" of Russian and Syrian Air Defenses. It is a legitimate question. Without going into much detail how a key aspect of this integration is provided—in Western parlance it is called CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)—there are reasons to assume that in case of older S-200s the targeting data could have been provided by radio-voice commands. But here comes this most important fact—Syrian S-200 and its radar did have a track and, possibly, a lock on the Israeli F-16s. The certainty of this fact, as in old proverb about the proof being in the pudding, is in all advanced aircraft being equipped with Emission Detectors which are a warning system and Israeli aircraft using available "screen" in a form of Russian IL-20 on its approach to Khmeimim Air Base. 

In other words, Israeli aircraft were forced to seek a cover and one can only imagine how warnings were screaming in their cockpits. They saw IL-20 with its huge Radar Cross Section (RCS). For those with a short attention span it is worth reminding them that Syrian Air Defense does have a track record of shooting down or damaging IAF's aircraft.  In fact, apart from actually admitting their losses, IAF is still mum on the fate of "damaged by birds" F-35. In other words, Syrian AD does track and locks on Israeli combat aircraft. S-200 missiles are what is known SARH—Semi-Active Radar Homing, meaning that missile needs the illumination of the target by the air defense complex radar and that is where the professionalism, especially at the significant engagement ranges (tens and even hundreds of kilometers), becomes absolutely crucial. But so does a protocol, or ROE (Rules of Engagement), for people in control of any particular AD complex which is not "inside" the loop of highly sensitive IFF. At this stage, I do have reasons to believe that under a huge pressure of the situation unfolding in what used to be a calm sector of approaches to Khmeimim Air Base, which was agreed between Israel and Russia, and where IAF's aircraft were not supposed to be, the Syrian crew simply went for the target which was clearly visible and shaded smaller RCS Israeli planes. 

Israel violated in this case not just an ethical norm by hiding behind IL-20, it violated much more—it flew it planes into the area which was specifically designated as "out of reach" for IAF. As former Israel's Service Nativ' Yakov Kedmi stated after the events, all this tragedy became a result of Israeli recklessness and unprofessionalism, he called this mistake by Israeli generals a doom-spelling one. Reaction of Israel following the events is telling—she went into the full damage control mode with Netanyahu urgently calling Vladimir Putin. He offered the Commander of Israeli Air Force to be immediately on his way to Moscow, all diplomatic, informational, government channels between Israel and Russia got immediately engaged. This was a very telling sign of a real panic and confusion on the Israeli side which also immediately offered condolences. This is not an act of war, as many would love it to be, some out of often justified hatred of Israel hoping for Russia to dispose of this "evil", others purely out of adrenalin rush in anticipation of TV picture of people killing each other. 

But the issue of interaction between Russia and Syrian forces is real and it is not easily addressed for a number of purely military and cultural reasons. But some conclusions can already be made:

1. There will be no "annihilation" of Israel, nor will there be any shooting war between Russia and Jewish State as many would love and lust it to be;

2. There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone and as Vladimir Putin stated Russia will take “the steps that everyone will notice.” Obviously this important statement by the head of Russian State got drowned in the ocean of rage and speculations, and confusion I may add, but this has become a familiar pattern by now.

3. Issue of ROE and interaction—the most important one. Specialists must review protocols and tactical procedures. Engagement caveats must be strictly enforced. 

4. Training of Syrian personnel and, obvious now, necessity, once advanced S-300s (PMU) are additionally delivered to Syria, to have Russian advisers full time in any Syrian Air Defense crew dealing with much more advanced technology than old S-200s. 

In the end, this tragedy, should serve as a real serious lesson and, in a military sense a warning that one better stick to the agreements or things may spiral out of control very fast. Israel decided that it is allowed to break agreements. Israel should ask Turkey what happens when one does Russia wrong—Turkish Air Force knows it too well after shooting down Russian SU-24. It got grounded. Now Turkey is a situational ally of Iran and Russia in the region. As per larger geopolitical sense—just wait and see. But I made myself explicit on that matter not for once. I might as well repeat myself—dogs bark, but caravan passes on.  

UPDATE(S): Superb updates from actual Russian very real officers (Google, Google Translate, dive, dive) through famous military observer Viktor Barantez (former senior officer) in response to Viktor Alxnis emotional piece in Vzglyad. Response of serving (active) senior officer of  Main Staff of VKS, Colonel Sergei Paramonov in an interview:

         Why We Couldn't Defend IL-20 

A superb professional response to all those trolls and internet "experts" who, as was expected, are already painting new "rich" picture of massive Israeli-French-Russia military-geopolitical conspiracy. We ain't seen nothing yet from them. But Paramonov literally sinks all arguments in favor of all kinds of conspiracy theories. 

Moreover, Lieutenant-Colonel Victor Haustov, Deputy Commander of the Air Defense Regiment fresh from Syria gives explanation on tactics and technical means involved. 

   Why IFF Didn't Prevent The Tragedy of IL-20 In Syria.  

Victor Baranetz and Komsomolka (Komsomolskaya Pravda) deserve only the highest praise for them for releasing these interviews with real professionals and solid reviews (within allowed for open press framework) of the whole situation. I will translate only one phrase from Haustov's interview:

К тому же, не забывайте, что С-200 - оружие старенькое. А подготовка сирийских спецов ПВО, мягко говоря, часто оставляет желать много лучшего...

Translation: Moreover, do not forget that S-200 is an old weapon, while training of Syrian Air Defense specialists leaves a lot to be desired.   

UPDATE: Russian Ministry of Defense today put to rest all those speculations and confirmed what Ionov stated from the get go, hours after IL-20 was shot down. As Konashenkov stated:

There was NO any IFF involved, because Russia DOES NOT supply it to foreign customers (in Russian). 

I can hear already desperate moans and screams of utter suffering from the vast armies of couch warriors and conspiracy theorists, because once IFF issue is removed, the picture becomes very clear. As I stated in first couple of hours of this tragedy:

INTERMITTENT SUMMARY:  So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing--so very Israeli--and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. Yes...one minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming.

Let investigation now proceed with normal pace and decision be made on facts, not some fancy technophiles' incompetent theories.