Fyodor Lukyanov Is Lost (Again)...

... in the forest consisting of four trees, or four geopolitical entities, if you wish, which are US, EU, Russia and China. In his latest in RT he continues to exhibit all traits of a discredited pseudo-academic field of political "science", in Russia aka politology, and its primary folly--lack of grasp of national power. The whole piece is a typical 4! (exclamation mark being factorial, that is 4 x 3 x 2 x 1= 24) ways, combinations, four things could be rearranged. This is a typical pol-sci approach and here is what especially stands out in Lukyanov's piece. 

Thus, when the Biden administration passes the Inflation Reduction Act, putting American citizens in a much better position than Europeans, it is perfectly in the interests of the US. So? Western Europe is caught in a trap and it’s unclear how it can escape. Absolute solidarity with the US on the Russian question implies subordination to a stronger partner. That said, the EU and UK are ready for this, but it means (for objective reasons): 1) that they must bear most of the costs, and 2) they should follow a common strategic position on the other issues of principle for their patron. And the main one here is China. Beijing will be Washington’s strategic rival for decades to come. However, it’s not a threat to Western Europe, and it’s not a challenge. Indeed, cooperation with it is advantageous. But why should the big brother allow his little sidekick to help someone who is at odds with him?

Lukyanov reads here from Washington's "strategic" script, which assumes, wrongly, that China's rivalry to Washington is somehow a preordained affair. I have news for Lukyanov--US IS NOT a strategic rival to Beijing, for all my rather stand-offish attitude towards China and being very far from Beijing's fanboy. The reason the US cannot be rival to China is in a simple fact of the US economy being dwarfed by that of China, even when considering some major structural issues of Chinese economy. The only venue the US can pursue, granted that the process of national degeneration can somehow be arrested, which is a huge question onto itself, is military-political, or, in other words, power politics which AUKUS is one manifestation of. Europe, meanwhile, was always on Washington's menu since 2014. But Washington has own serious digestive problems. Huge ones. 

I doubt that Lukyanov really has a grasp of these issues both economically, technologically, not to speak of operational part of them, and he, obviously, continues to reside in 1990s when speaking about modern US. But these are decisive factors which define the dynamics of modern world and power-struggle is NOT just between the US and China, economically the United States long ago lost this competition to Beijing, but between larger Eurasia and the US--the issue which cannot be resolved in the present state of the US military which lost the arms race not to Beijing, but to Russia. And these facts negate all factorial combinations of four entities, because each of them has its own dynamics and is decisively not static. And then comes this purely military issue which is beyond the grasp of graduates of philological faculty of Moscow State University (yes, that is Lukyanov's academic background) who try to comment on geopolitics which is driven by military might. 

Per the fate of Europe. Europe is being reduced to what it always was geographically--the appendix of a huge Eurasian continental mass and so will become its culture and economy, much of which, as is the case with the US, is nothing more than assets' inflation, service sector and expenditures which, somehow, are being counted as "product", when in reality detracting from it. But then again, the principle of Ellochka Schukina who was entranced by the gold plated tea strainer in Ilf and Petrov's immortal The Twelve Chairs, seems to be the main driving factor behind Moscow pseudo-intellectual Beau Monde saturated with journos, political "scientists", economists and similar types, thinking about modern West.

It doesn't take much to impress them with outwardly shiny manifestations of once West's glory and to blind them to these facts:

But then again, can you explain a toddler what factorial is? I thought so. 

Per Merkel. Bernhard penned a good piece on this issue:

I think that Merkel is obfuscating. Her original intent with Minsk II was not to buy time to arm Ukraine. Her intent was to prevent a further war and to make peace. The argument, that it gave time for Ukraine to arm, is only made now and only to save her political ass in the current political climate. The proof for that is in what she also brings up, Nord Stream 2, which has always had her full support. Its intent was to make Germany independent from the pipelines through Ukraine and Poland. But war came before the much delayed pipeline was ready. And any realistic alternative for Germany's current position was gone after the U.S. finally blew it up. Her answer with regards to Nord Stream 2 makes no sense if she, at the same time that Nord Stream 2 was build, had intentionally prepared Ukraine for war.

Read the whole piece. Bernhard makes some valid points. But they do not change the outcome of the whole PR snafu.  

In related news: huge congrats to Croatia for outstanding performance against Brazil.   

Moscow's (Pseudo)Intellectual Parnassus Gets A Clue.

I am on record, I do not hold much of the Moscow's "think-tankdom" in high regard, because as any "geopolitical" think-tanks anywhere they are staffed (and stuffed) with good ol' boys and girls whose only claim to any expertise is that of being from the "right" Moscow families and social circle, and their social agility when swimming in the murky waters of Moscow's "intellectual" Parnassus. Fyodor Lukyanov is one of them and he is a darling, together with a number of clueless humanities educated "experts", of RT. You can take a look at Lukyanov's bio and "credentials" here. Yes, yet another Kreakl who still didn't recognize that political science is not a science and that any discussion on contemporary geopolitics without a firm grasp of real economy and military power--two fields which require way more than a degree in philology--is nothing more than a demagoguery using big words. And here is the issue. 

Mr. Lukyanov, narrating beaten to death headlines, concludes:

Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia’s role in the global economic order has turned out to be more significant than the West believed 

It is one of those "Duh" or "No Shit" moments but I want to send you back a few years ago, namely 6 years ago, and remind you that I wrote and warned on the danger of Western, and Moscow's Parnassus, delusions about real economy for more than a decade. 

I write constantly about the parallel universe in which US main-stream media live when dealing with, well, just about anything and, especially so, Russia, but some of the brain farts produced by a bunch of hacks working for US media machine do deserve to be singled out. Here is a today's pearl from Boston Globe.  

The reason I warned and countered this delusion was and remains very pragmatic--US bullying's fundamental principle is "never get to fight a serious enemy". For decades pseudo-economic Voodoo about US (and West's) actual economy, the same as about that of Russia has created a false sense of both security and entitlement on the American part. The reality that US economy and its capability are vastly smaller than was declared, while Russia' economy and its capability are vastly larger than was declared by geopolitical "experts", never occurred to primarily humanities educated "masters of discourse" on the both sides of the Atlantic and that played a crucial role in the military-economic suicide of the United States which we observe right now. Recall, 8 years ago, and I will continue to repeat that ad nauseam:

I observed for decades now a consistent pattern of the wrong assessments, loony strategies and deliberate misrepresentation (lies?) of facts coming from the top of US establishment, which since 1991 lives in the make-believe world built by the triumphalists. It is difficult to explain to the average Joe that Baseball World Series, or Superbowl "World Champions" have no relation to the World and are purely internal American affairs. That there is a huge wide world outside  and that it lives and moves not in accordance to the American narrative. Explaining to American "elite" the fact that US didn't "win" the WW II, that "winning" the Cold War came about because Soviet people simply decided to end it, that Wall Street "economy" has no relation to real economy and that real wars produce misery and destruction on a scale which is incomprehensible for the "populace" of the Washington D.C. "strategists", it is not just difficult--it is next to impossible. So, the events must run the course. But it is already clear that by failing to achieve any sensible political objectives in Ukraine and in Russia, and, by this, starting a massive global re-alignment, the United States sustained a defeat. What will be the consequences of this defeat? I hate to speculate, I just know that they are already big and that the moment of facing the reality is coming.    

I didn't write it because I wanted to exercise my abilities or, rather, lack there of, in global "forecasting" but because I simply know about real economy and technological realities of the modern world just a teeny-weeny more than all those "experts" in Russia who continue to abuse their "intellectual" sinecures and wouldn't know the difference between sine and cosine, let alone between the icebreaker and the ice maker. Today, when some of them begin to wake up to the reality that Russia's economy is not just larger, but much larger than same of Germany--I warned about this fact for years--and that, for example, the United States cannot even develop, let alone produce a completely new Main Battle Tank (MBT) and they recognize that Russia commands an immense share of critical strategic resources, people like Lukyanov begin to write trivial pieces, when the main position and task of all this Moscow "expert community" for the last 10 years should have been a firm delivery to the combined West the facts about the true state and correlations of Russia and the US CINCs (Combined Index of National Capability) and the insistence on framing the academic discussion within those proverbial Barnett's 14 points. They failed miserably, being led on the primrose path by the Wall Street virtual economy and technological "expertise" limited by the knowledge of the brands of luxury cars and iPhones. Well, I am being unjust here: they, probably, have a good expertise in good booze too. 

But then again, can you imagine explaining to those people from Moscow's "geopolitical" Parnassus that the guidance and targeting systems of cruise missiles such as 3M14 or X-101, or satellite constellations of GLONASS and Liana, among many other things, the same as economy which creates them, are the main drivers of modern geopolitics and it is them on which the whole of modern Russian diplomacy and foreign relations are based upon, not some BS pseudo-intellectual constructs about geopolitics whose discussion without real solid expertise in manufacturing, including extraction, technology and weapons is the exercise in futility and demagoguery. And here we are today, the Captain Obvious discovered for himself that Russia's "economic role" in the "global" economy is more significant. I, of course, omit here the issue of military power of Russia which rests on a massive manufacturing, including dual purpose technologies. Enough to take a look at Russia's commercial aviation and the development of even SSJ-100 New. 

But, of course, these are new iPhones which really matter, right? I am sure UK citizens will have no issues with food and heat since they will have new iPhones, assembled in Asia. It is sarcasm, of course, but when I see such "experts" as Lukyanov making discoveries of what is obvious to anyone with a good mind and serious life and industry experiences, I have nothing but contempt and sadness that those "experts" never got their academic priorities straight. But then again, I wrote three books on this issue. Recall the title of the last one.

While They Count Votes.

An "interesting" piece from  Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP), and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club. SVOP is a cabal of politologists and "associated" people, such as late legendary Evgenii Primakov, but is mostly known today for a bunch of "liberals" such as slick opportunist Sergei Karaganov from VShE who pretend that they know how power balance is formed. Lukyanov is an epitome of humanities--uneducated "analyst" (not to mention being associated with a cloaca of VShE) and he doesn't disappoint writing on the issues he has no idea about. In fact, he is clueless. He makes an astonishing claim re: Russian-American relations:

Let's start with the current agenda. In the past, no matter the circumstances, the focus was invariably on the issues of strategic stability and nuclear arms control. Between them, Russia and the US possess over 90 percent of the world's nuclear arsenal, and both have the ability to physically annihilate one another – along with the planet. It was the need to manage these risks that gave rise to a system of special arrangements between Moscow and Washington.

I don't know what stone did Mr. Lukyanov sleep in the last 20 years under, but since Russia and the United States STILL possess 90% of the world's nuclear arsenal, the necessity to manage it still remains one of the major points on the agenda of Russian-American relations. He proceeds with elaboration on this point:

With the nuclear issue losing its pivotal role, there is practically nothing of substance left in US-Russian relations. Granted, there are some smaller-scale technical issues to take care of, such as avoiding accidental clashes in Syria or strengthening diplomatic cooperation to tackle the problem of North Korea. There would probably still be contacts on topics related to former Soviet countries, but that's more about making your intentions clear – not about agreeing on a common position.  

I understand that  Mr. Lukyanov was probably a good journalist for a bunch of rags in Russia and maybe even rubbed shoulders with some luminaries but specialist in modern power balance he is not and never was, and never will be, as will not be Karaganov or many other demagogues with egos larger than cathedrals populating this non-governmental org, SVOP that is. As such his assumptions are risible, because Russia is named in every doctrinal document in the US and is mentioned  as present and clear danger to America by every single US top echelon official, from Pentagon to Department of State. Yet, Lukyanov who wouldn't know the difference between anti-shipping cruise missile and motorcycle comes up with a typical incompetent BS:

For Russia, a critical aspect of this previous experience is its excessive fixation on the United States – to the detriment of other areas of development. This is something that must be thrown overboard, as quickly as possible.

I would suggest Mr. Lukyanov to conduct a forensic experiment and go out and piss off some crazy Caucasus (Chechen, Dagestani or Ingush) body-builder on the street and then remain not excessively "fixated" on his and his family's safety. The whole notion that some political "scientist" or journo who wouldn't be able to grasp nitty-gritty of running even WW II-era diesel sub, not to speak of division of nuclear ones or what is going on in terms of strategic stability on the level of modern weaponry and sensors, as integrated into the decision making on the highest military-political level, can have a competent opinion is risible. Yet, here we are--another ignoramus, who never got to serve even as a private in any capacity in any force waxes "strategic" by parading his ignorance reiterating the point:

For Russia, a new era will only begin once our leadership – who remain overly preoccupied with Russia's relations with the US, believing themselves to be in some sort of unique and historic position – listen to the Russian people, for whom America is just another foreign land. An important one, yes, but no more than that. When it comes to Russia's relations with the US, the less we get carried away by feelings of self-importance and misplaced superiority, the better it would be for everyone, ourselves included.

So, I don't know where Lukyanov gets his points of view, but somebody better whisper to his and his colleagues' ears that the political "science" is not science neither is profession of journalism a valid occupation. To pass competent judgement on issues of a strategic stability and actual power--this is beyond Lukyanov's competencies, even if he thinks that rubbing shoulders with Russia's national security professionals does provide rubbing off fundamental knowledge and competencies which allow people in Russia to make decisions which go radically counter to Lukyanov's platitudes presented as a deep thought, which it is not. In times like these only raw military-industrial power is a viable insurance against a variety of contingencies which end up in massive military clash. I think Lukyanov should take his advice to Russia and apply it to himself, like this:

the less I (Fyodor Lukyanov) get carried away by feelings of self-importance and misplaced superiority, the better it would be for everyone. 

Especially when trying to apply skills in philology to complex matters of national security of Russia whose people overwhelmingly view the United States as a very real threat for themselves. The only thing on which I agree with him--for Russia it makes no difference who comes to power in D.C. Russia will remain America establishment's main threat for reasons of which Lukyanov has very little, if any, understanding. But larger question in all that is how a person with minimal military-political credentials can pass for "expert" in Russia--the explanation to this is very simple, a putrid belch of Russia's "liberal experiment" of 1990s and 2000s when people like Lukyanov wormed their way into the lucrative sphere of Russia's "expertdom" by learning many buzz-words and catch-phrases without having a grasp of their real meaning.