Now It Is Becoming...

 ... a comedy. 

It’s been two months since ex-American M-1s tanks arrived in Ukraine. And two months since we’ve seen any evidence of the tanks.  It’s not clear what Ukraine is doing with its 31 Abrams, but it is clear what it should be doing: up-armoring them to resist attacks by Russia’s explosive-laden first-person-view drones. FPV drones are everywhere all the time along the 600-mile front line of Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine. They now rival mines as the biggest threats to tanks on both sides. It’s all but inevitable that Ukraine will lose some of its four-person, 68-ton M-1s. The 2000s-vintage M-1A1SAs that Ukraine received are some of the best-protected tanks in the world, but they’re not invulnerable to attack.

In related news, it is also good for M-1s to lose a couple of pounds... ahem, I mean, 10-15 tons, to get a lower profile, to get new tracks with a better traction, get a turret's effective anti-FPV screen and, in general, to stop being M-1 and become something which is suited for modern war not for rolling over incompetent and demoralized Iraqi infantry in ideal desert conditions. 

Per sights and other "avionics"--they are all about the same in most modern tanks and Russian T-90M Proryv and T-14 Armata are fully netcentric tanks capable to communicate and even provide targeting not only within homogeneous tank (armor) unit but even for aircraft and AD complexes. Ah yes, all (ALL) Russian tanks are capable to launch a very nasty ATGM Reflex through their guns, M-1 cannot. So, the great military "expert" from Forbes David Axe can wet dream whatever he wants about those 31 VSU Abrams but they ain't getting to the battlefield where they will be blown up by Russians and then the pictures and videos of them burning will be gladly shared by Russian military with global community. 

I mean, for many going through the realization of NATO weapon systems being NO GOOD in modern war is a difficult moral journey, but, believe me, for me also when I fully realized the depth of Pentagon's incompetence it was a shocking discovery. Here are German Welt's journos and "experts" suddenly recognized that Patriots PAC-2,3 in 404... suck and cannot stop X-32 cruise missiles. Welcome to the Putin Krieg, morons.

Of course, X-32 while being extremely high supersonic and stand-off is still not hypersonic missiles. Here is me 4 years ago explaining this simple fact that and explaining that no NATO AD system, naval or ground based, can stop the salvo of X-32, which also since then underwent even deadlier modification.

The reason for that is a simple fact that large and expensive surface combatants are not survivable in the modern naval combat, unless they have weapon systems which can fight REAL hypersonic weapons such as fully combat ready and deployed Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon or even nearing M=5 X-32 anti-shipping missiles. That is the real hypersonic threat, not those exotic Avangard gliders which merely exist to forestall the appearance in the future of similar systems in the United States and, if it ever materializes (I doubt it, but who knows) some sort of strategic anti-missile system. Unlike Avangard, which is a nuclear deterrent, another one in Russia's arsenal, Kinzhal, X-32 and Zircon are actual weapons designed specifically to fulfill a classic Sea Denial (or, if one wants an exercise in Pentagonese from me--Battle Space Denial) in both conventional or nuclear variants. They, not the Avangard, are the weapons which, being tactical-operational ones, achieved already a strategic and even doctrinal effect and these weapons are extremely precise. United States knows that. Liana, as Shoigu reported recently, namely last Peon NKS is nearing completion (in Russian), that's what is going to complete creation of Liana, which will (already does) provide detection, tracking and targeting for hypersonic and supersonic weapons against any targets. 

People love to talk about hypersonic Kinzhal, which performed brilliantly, but the salvo of X-32s which actually carry false targets and extremely ECM resistant is also not survivable. Unless, of course, it is in 404 and Western media, but then again, they still cannot wrap their brains around the outcome of SMO which unfolds while I type it here. Russia also launched more satellites in the last couple of weeks and is gaining a much better situational awareness and targeting certainty in preparation for... what? Make your own conclusions. The SMO is a paradigm shift for which Russia was preparing since 2008. Recall, I wrote this book 5 years ago:
    

In it I explained that physics and mathematics for NATO' victory in modern warfare are absent and that combined West operates legacy systems based on self-aggrandizing mythology (a euphemism for lie) of its part in WW II and, of course, BS of the Gulf War. The worst part for the West (USA generally) is that this cannot be changed because the clockwork of Western views on warfare is broken and doesn't work. 

As Alexei Leonkov (aka Comrade Maduro) explains in Russian--the thesis which I advance for the last 10 years in my writing--US doesn't have great strategic analysis as such due to a complete degeneration of the American educational system, including military education, and belief in all kinds of equivalents of computer Teslas, not understanding that they operate primarily on myths. 

You cannot fix this system without destroying it and rebuilding it anew based on verified datasets and proper history and historical assessments. And here is what I noticed recently, once in a long while I go to the comments to my books on Amazon. And here is the comment to my first book. Take it for whatever it is. 

This first of Martyanov's three books is the most infuriating, aggravating, sickening and depressing book that I’ve read in years. He dispassionately debunks the myths of American exceptionalism and that of the US military as the finest fighting force in history. As a retired USAF pilot, this has been a bitter pill for me to swallow. At no time during my four years in the Pentagon in USAF Plans & Ops, as well as USAF Requirements, plus Armed Forces Staff College & Air War College, plus 15 years in the cockpit in both crew and command positions, none of the significant information he shares was ever made known or disclosed to me. His experience, knowledge and footnotes are impressive. Likewise his writing style is straightforward and to the point; no hyperbole. This book should be MANDATORY reading for EVERY senator and congressman, particularly those on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, as well as every US military officer, senior NCO, DoD, State Department, NSA and Executive Branch decision maker, especially the Offices of the President and Vice President. We are woefully unprepared to engage in a conventional conflict with either Russia or China and no one wins a nuclear war.

So, you see--I warned.  And just let me add--we ain't seen nothing yet. Or as Vladimir Vladimirovich said--we haven't even started yet.

Leonkov Doesn't Hold Back.

He gave a very substantive interview to Ukraina.ru, which I strongly suggest anyone who reads this blog to look at. Use Google Translate. Here is the piece which is of utter importance for Russia's strategic planning. No, not just land bridge to Transnistria--this has been discussed often, by yours truly too. But, get a load of this:

Сразу после окончания СВО Запад не сможет воевать с нами. У него нет подготовленной армии, он не накопит нужного количества ресурсов, у него нет планов войны с Россией. У него есть только обрывки домыслов и догадок. Эти три фактора делают войну с НАТО маловероятной. Понятно, что США могут подтолкнуть европейцев к безумным шагам. Но на экономическом и дипломатическом фронте у нас работают специалисты, которые постараются их от этого удержать. И СВО приведет к процессам, которые приведут к расколу Евросоюза и НАТО. Если мы пробьем сухопутный коридор к Венгрии, то на эту ось примагнитится Сербия. А за ней могут пойти Словакия и Румыния, где происходят очень интересные процессы. Восточная Европа начнет откалываться от старушки Европы, которая будет пребывать в сильной депрессии, связанной с экономическим положением. Ведь Европа не терпит поражение не только на восточном фронте, но и на глобальном юге (с Китаем у нее не так все просто).

Translation: Immediately after the end of the Special Military Operation, the West will not be able to fight with us. It does not have a trained army, it will not accumulate the required amount of resources, it has no plans for war with Russia. It only has scraps of speculation and guesswork. These three factors make war with NATO unlikely. It is clear that the United States can push the Europeans to take crazy steps. But on the economic and diplomatic front we have specialists who will try to keep them from doing this. And the NWO will lead to processes that will lead to a split in the European Union and NATO. If we break through a land corridor to Hungary, then Serbia will be magnetized to this axis. And it can be followed by Slovakia and Romania, where very interesting processes are taking place. Eastern Europe will begin to break away from old Europe, which will be severely depressed due to the economic situation. After all, Europe is  defeated not only on the eastern front, but also in the global south (it is not so simple with China).

 

Consider this: Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia have a combined population of roughly 42 million. This is substantial, it is also a promising market--make your own conclusion. As I already stated many times, Russia doesn't need love or obedience, Russia is interested in trade with people who still recognize that there are only two genders. Simple as that. Once the land bridge is built, European structure changes dramatically. Old Europe can go and die.