Short Note On Russia's ASAT and Iran.

1. Let's remember that both USSR and USA were into ASAT (anti-satellite) business really early (since 1960s) and first.  

2. This latest mass-hysteria as usually fanned by US establishment and its media is not accidental. Once one discounts a normal (for the US) practice to spin anything Russia does into some propaganda BS, this hysteria has a lot more to it than mere completely unfounded concerns about the safety of ISS etc. 

3. The main reason for hysteria is the fact that it was A-235 Nudol which destroyed an old recon Tselina-D satellite (a symbolic message for professionals) which was at the 645+ kilometers high orbit and judging by Shoigu's obvious satisfaction (in Russian) with this, we may assume that Nudol is ready to go big time, including its mobile versions. 

4. This whole thing is about Starlink and, in general, US space recon assets. For people who still believe that Elon Musk is a genius, stop reading here. For those who do not think so, it is no secret that Starlink's main purpose is to place as many recon assets into orbit as possible at, and you may have guessed it already, of 550 kilometers or lower. 

That is the main reason for hysteria because Russia will not allow the wet US dream of controlling space and thus monitor launches of all serious Russia's weapon systems to come to fruition. This latest launch was a message that the "envelope" is covered and if Nudol itself is an expensive machine (which, btw, reaches Mach=16 in first 3 seconds) which is capable of reaching way higher than 645 kilometers for expensive recon assets of STSS or comms such as Iridium, it merely shows that missile technologies to mass-shoot Starlink spies and everything else in case of war are already in place. Well, S-500 for once, and things of other nature such as laser weapons plus who knows what. That is why such a hysteria. Recall this:

Can this thing fly to 1500 km? Why not? So, this also means the end of the US low orbit system for monitoring launches of hyper-sonic weapons. I have been writing about Russia getting into the revelation mode for years, here is one of the latest ones from 2019. I called that a Real Revolution in Military Affairs for a reason, because it is, and when we talk about ASAT weapons recall what is the full name of this Russian service--Air Space Force (VKS), it wasn't just a new cute title, it was a new force structure designed to fight everything that flies be that in atmosphere or in space. As a saying, a very popular and widely used, for Russia's Air and Space missilery goes: сами не летаем и другим не даём--we don't fly ourselves and do not allow others (c). A classic case of Dog in the Manger. 

This is why such a hysterical reaction and a pile of BS (because ISS measures were taken because of the old Chinese satellite which was threatening ISS), but at this stage Russians don't care. In related news of Russia declining especially strongly and having her economy in "tatters"(c). Some guy laments that Russians control now Iran's gas fields. He even cries that:

A deal finalized last week to develop Iran’s multi-trillion dollar new gas discovery, the Chalous field, will see Russian companies hold the major share in it, followed by Chinese companies, and only then Iranian ones, sources close to the deal exclusively told OilPrice.com. This is despite Chalous’s position unequivocally within the Iranian sector of the Caspian Sea, over which the Islamic Republic has complete sovereignty. Billions of dollars in additional capital investment are scheduled to come from financial institutions in Germany, Austria, and Italy, as the indications are that the size of Chalous’s gas reserves are even greater now than initially thought. According to one of the senior Russian officials involved in negotiating the deal: “This is the final act of securing control over the European energy market.”

But even he admits: 

Although the IRGC has stated in a series of internal discussions within the Iranian government recently that the new terms of the Chalous deal that have placed Russian and Chinese interests above those of Iran are ‘the price we have to pay for Iran’s access to the technology and manufacturing capacity required for our missile program’, the ramifications of it are much greater than the size of future IRGC slush funds in Shanghai and Macau. 

I'll give Mr.Watkins, who penned this piece, a hint--he needs to read Iranian Constitution which explicitly states that Iran wants to be a developed country. Combined West will never allow this, while Russia, who is a close neighbor, will. Money is not everything and often they cannot buy technology in the West. Well, Iran tried, alright. In Russia? Boy, judging by the air-show in Dubai, many Gulfies would love to have things like that: 

I Hope Iran learned her lesson few years ago after the short "lifting of the sanctions". Russia was just waiting in the wings. Plus, of course, India also couldn't resist and sanctions do not really work, in fact, they often achieve the opposite effect.

Rule Of Thumb.

Western media are abuzz--the main dictator of this planet, the abuser of Russia and underminer of the American democracy, the evil Putin has spoken. About hyper-sonic weapons.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will soon be in a position to counter hypersonic arms deployed by other countries, President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday, adding that Moscow was ahead of the United States in developing new types of weapons. Hypersonic glide vehicles can steer an unpredictable course and manoeuvre sharply as they approach impact. They also follow a much flatter and lower trajectory than ballistic missiles. Washington and Moscow have been expanding their defence capabilities as some Cold War-era arms control agreements collapsed during worsening of Russia's ties with the West. Last year Russia deployed its first hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles, while the Pentagon has a goal of fielding hypersonic capabilities in the early to mid-2020s.

In Russian version of Putin's interview he actually spoke (sarcastically) about "pleasant surprise" for the US once it will, eventually, get its hands on some sort of hyper-sonic weapon. And, of course, Reuters lied (I am sure without any malice, wink, wink) or is simply dumb to understand the difference of which I write non-stop. While hyper-sonic "nuclear capable" gliders are cool and are "strategic" it is not them which are the focus of the modern arms race.  The real deal are what broadly could be defined as operational-tactical hypersonic weapons designed to be used at the modern battlefield against variety of the enemy's military targets. Russia has one such weapon, hypersonic Kinzhal in IOC since 2017 and in full combat deployment since 2018. 

The United States undeniably will be able at some point of time to develop some sort of a glider but I doubt it very much that US military will have anything comparable to 3M22 Zircon or even same Kinzhal anytime soon. Rule of thumb here is this: a generation of weapon systems. The United States lags behind Russia in hyper-sonic battle-field weapons not just by generation, but by two. She simply doesn't have any, while Russia already has Kinzhal in action for 3 years and Zircon is nearing its IOC. That means a NEW generation of weapons is already on the drawing board or even in prototype stage. Ad nauseam, again, not only the United States doesn't have a working prototype of such weapon, including a latest snafu with losing one. The issue, ad nauseam again, here is that the US doesn't have any experience with high super-sonic (M=3+) missiles at all, unlike Russia who deploys an astonishing array of such weapons from 3M54 Kalibr, to P-800 Onyx, capable to attack pretty much anything on land and water, and, of course, X-31, not to speak of deadly X-32. And then, of course, comes this issue of anti-missile systems. 

Butt-hurt (nothing new here) Mark Episkopos (another humanities-"educated" so called "expert" from, and you guessed it, The National Interest) already tried to spin BS about S-500. 

Russian media and military experts believe that the S-500 will be the first missile defense system able to reliably target and neutralize fifth-generation stealth fighters like the F-35, a claim too early to meaningfully evaluate at this stage in the S-500’s development cycle. 

Mark Episkopos, being an "expert" he is, and citing Sputnik, for some reason, arrives to a strange conclusion about S-500 capability to "reliably" detect F-35. Obviously for people not acquainted with modern battlefield, netcentricity  and sensor fusion it may come as a surprise that modern truly integrated AD system sees any so called "stealth" targets and is able to develop targeting for Buk-M3, S-300, S-350, S-400 etc. Moreover, ancient Soviet S-125, when used by skillful Serbs in 1999, also had little problem shooting down what then was advertised as "invisible" F-117. The persistent of "Stealth" myth, and meme, in the US is astonishing, to the point of folly. It is especially true for people in US media who, by definition, are completely removed from analytical apparatus required to understand a complexity of modern warfare. 

But what Putin was talking about in terms of a defense from future hyper-sonic weapons, most likely are not just S-500, which is stated to be able to detect, track and shoot down hyper-sonic weapons, especially ones which will be flying at Mach=5-6 (S-400 can do this already). He was most likely talking about defense against what could be defined as "strategic" hyper-sonic gliders which fly at M=20+ and that is a completely different type of weapon and requires a different, from merely hard-kill by anti-missile, approach. Obviously, Russia deploys, now world-famous, meowing A-235 Nudol, and this system becoming mobile is a serious step in countering pretty much any type of exoatmosperic or atmospheric high-velocity and maneuvering targets. But rule of thumb tells us that we, in addition to such missile systems as S-500 or Nudol, may expect appearance of something truly revolutionary which is still hidden behind curtain of secrecy in Russia. Lasers? Sure, we already know about them, like Peresvet, but something tells me some other physics could be involved. In the end, many still cannot get a full meaning of this demonstration which speaks volumes for professionals.

We just have to wait and see.