Sunday, August 29, 2021

When Shoigu Speaks... listens. Or, using the old Russian proverb: if there is a gun hanging from the wall on the stage in the first act of the play in theater, in the last act this gun will shoot. It was clear that if anti-shipping and land-attack cruise missiles appeared in the first act of a massive geopolitical play in 1950s (a venerable P-15 Styx), and continued to hang on the wall throughout a whole play, in the final act of this particular play they were supposed to shoot. They did. Speaking to Vladimir Solovyov Shoigu stated some pretty obvious truths, simple ones, really, as TASS reports:

Translation: If to speak about what we have in the nearest future, it is increase in ranges of hyper-sonic weapons. This also means increase in speeds (!!!!), if to talk about these hyper-sonic weapons, it is increase in accuracy, this, also means adaptation of carriers to these new weapons systems.   

OK, we know that Kinzhal alone has a range of 2000 kilometers on its own (without the range of carrier--MiG-31K), 3M22 Zircon has a range of 1000+ kilometers, while upcoming GZUR has a range of 1,500 kilometers. All of it at speeds of M=9+ (GZUR M=12+). So, what Shoigu is talking about then? Recall, I asked this question for years, the last time--exactly a year ago. 

What's next, ASM with 3,000 kilometer range? Absolutely. This is the reality of the Real Revolution in Military Affairs and it completely rewrites tactical, operational and strategic manuals and directives. It completely redefines naval (and other three domains) warfare and don't tell me that I didn't warn you.

I would say that I am still pretty conservative in my estimates of 3,000 kilometer range ASM, because judging by the dynamics of hyper-sonic weapons' development in Russia, it is highly likely that within next few years (3-5) we will see M=15+, 5,000 kilometer anti-shipping missiles (with land-attack capability) which will further redefine the outlook for surface fleets and will mark the start for a very protracted period for the combined West, primarily the United States, attempting to develop at least something which can be presented to public as "effective" air-defense means against such threats, which, of course, will be primarily PR.  As I warned for years--the warfare between state actors as we know it is no more. 

Shoigu, however, being in the top three trolls in Russia after Putin and Lavrov, answering the tongue in cheek question on why he still didn't present himself to Ukrainian Court which demands Shoigu to appear personally in a front of it and be sentenced for Crimea's return, admitted:

"Виноват, исправлюсь" (Guilty, I will correct that). 

Ukraine, of course, when trying to state her case in such terms as it did with Shoigu, should always question what does she wish for, since, at some point of time, her wishes could be granted, which, in case of Shoigu, could mean, indeed, appearance in person together with couple of combined arms corps at the steps of Ukraine's whichever court will hear Shoigu. 

Just for fun, ARMY-2021 took place all over Eurasia and in China (the Chinese part of ARMY-2021 has a title of Clear Skies), one of the competitions was a use of the manpad (in our case Igla) against fast aerial target. Here is the ONLY guy (Russian officer) who managed to shoot down Chinese TY-300D target missile. 

This whole thing is now circulating all over the internet, so I decided to circulate it further. It is fun and good military porn.      

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