Thursday, July 12, 2018

Helsinki, The 16th.

Ok, since everyone writes about Putin-Trump summit, I might as well put my 5 cents into it. I do not want to do "analysis", nor "synthesis" on this media frenzy which surrounds this upcoming event in Helsinki on 16th, but here are some points which are worth considering:

1. Trump and bluster are two sides of the same coin. It works on such people as European patsies. Putin is not the guy who will be impressed by that in any way. And NO—Trump IS NOT going to pull out of NATO.

2. The US which IS NATO, needs NATO to control Europe for a number of primarily economic reasons since, as I stated not for once, Europe is the only remaining global market with real strong purchasing power. This power is viewed by collective "Trump" as a key to restoration of the American economic might by means of coercing Europe to:

a) Buy US LNG (yes, Poland and other newbies);
b) Buy American-made weapons (You know, this 4% of GDP for "defense" against aggressive Russkies)
c) Buy American manufactured goods, from commercial aircraft to cars, to electronics. 

3. Trump is under serious pressure from US Israeli lobby and the pivotal issue of the upcoming summit will be Israel and its relation to the war in Syria. In fact, no less important than upcoming Trump-Putin summit was Bibi's, yet another, visit to Moscow and the statement which is a tacit admission of R+6 victory in Syria. So, it is Iran in the end, and Russia is trying to arrange some kind of "acceptable" to all parties presence of Iran in Syria. The issue is immensely complex but it is Moscow, not Washington, who has a shot on resolving it.  That is the position obtained by the skillful application of military power. 

4. There will be NO grand "Deal" between Russia and the US—Russians do not count the US as a reliable partner or, in other words, treaty-worthy party. Trump may have whatever good intentions but American establishment is inherently, on a cultural DNA level, not only anti-Russian but Russophobic in the extreme. Trumps come and go, Washington's political machine continues to reproduce "elites" which are… well, many here know my writing and what it is about. 

5. There will be NO lifting of the sanctions on Russia, nor are Russians really that interested in this. Russians know that US will stop at nothing, short of the all-out war, in trying to salvage itself. 

6. There will be some negotiations on START issues but again—somebody should have briefed DJT on the fact that Russia holds a decisive strategic and technological advantage in weaponry and will not necessarily agree on limiting any of her new weapons such as RS-28 Sarmat or Avangard—Gorbachev and Yeltsin times in Russia are long over. 

7. Ukraine? It will dissolve eventually one way or another and at this stage Russia is really not that interested in paying for maintenance of hostile, third-world shithole. Europe and the United States must pay for dissolution of this dysfunctional state they created. How? It is a separate issue. 

So, what's then so important about this summit? I think, if after this summit both sides will finally agree on these three points below, we may say that it is successful and I will be cheering on it and will extent the credit to DJT as to true American statesman:

I. There must not be any war between Russia and the United States under any circumstances;
II. Both sides are not enemies but competitors;
III. Russia is a superpower with her legitimate primarily regional and some global interests, the same must be recognized towards the United States. In general, limits must be negotiated.

This is it, I guess… Oh, wait, China! About this later, and no, Russia is not going to "sell" China out, but there are real issues there which must be addressed.

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