Wednesday, November 9, 2016


Those who read my blog from the inception, recall how many (and it is many) times did I labor to point out a huge difference between information (data) and knowledge. Also, recall how many times, in fact, constantly, I reiterated, and will continue to reiterate, that all this political "science", journalism and other similar degrees, are degrees in nothing and are not real professions or viable skills. I also never hid my contempt for the (many, not all) representatives of these so called "professions". Now, the shit started to surface and some begin to ask questions (as was expected).  

This statement: Donald Trump's astonishing White House victory over Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton produced another demonstrably clear loser in the process: US polling. Such was the scope of pollsters' and forecasters' failures Tuesday night that the future of the entire industry was being thrown into question. Of the 20 major polling institutions including national networks, prominent newspapers and news wires that conducted more than 80 polls since mid-September, only one organization -- the Los Angeles Times paired with USC Tracking -- consistently gave Trump the edge.

I have some news for the author of this piece and to those in this so called "industry". Flush all of your diplomas and Ph.Ds or whatever degrees in humanities you have down wide enough toilet because they are not worth the paper on which they are printed. Sure, one has to have data--but data itself means absolutely nothing until it is fitted into the Procrustean Bed of strict causality. It is only then when these data may become a knowledge. The problem for this "industry" and the whole class of parasites who suckle from American political class fat teet, is that they don't care about causality and consistently misread or, otherwise, influence public opinion to express itself in a direction which political class, not voters, need. You think it happened during this campaign only? No, it is, in fact, Modus Operandi of this industry--it was always like that. Another matter that only with the Trump's decisive victory the monstrous scale of the abyss which separates these "forecasters" and "pollsters" from the real America has been revealed. Indeed, when one thinks that the wind blows because trees are moving, that is has a causality exactly the other way around, what result can one expect from the decisions made on such false premises? Well, in order to develop knowledge, not some fraud (well paid, I may add), in order to be truly situationally aware, one has to work his ass off. Like in military. Now, I am trying envision how those pollsters and "forecasters" develop it. I have an idea--they don't. Most of those organizations (institutes, whatever) run a rigid routine of hiring some students and call centers to do the "polling", while fat cats of polling business discuss what needs to be made public and how to manipulate data with those who pay them, somewhere in fancy restaurants over good steak and nice whiskey or wine. But this is the MO of not only polling industry. This is how US political establishment operates in general--look at the results all around us. 

Will Trump victory, which dealt a crushing blow to the so called "establishment", lead to a considerable changes, I don't know. I still maintain my position that this establishment lives in a parallel universe precisely because it can only see one or two dimensional data and is incapable to see a great depth, a complex 3-dimentional picture. If new US Administration wants to really develop a knowledge of the outside world--it would require more, way more, than just data. It will require understanding, which is a highest form of knowledge. I hope that this principle will be applied to negotiations with Russia and will lead to de-escalation and working out of some geopolitical compromise which will sustain moderately peaceful and prosperous global order for a good long while. It seems possible now. If imbeciles from the so called establishment and its pollster lap dogs didn't get the message--real America voted yesterday for no more wars and for badly needed clean up of America's own house. This is a causality and I am sharing it for free with everyone. I conducted this personal poll through my 20 years of living and driving all around US and I don't mean interstates only, I love my back and country roads and mid-towns USA, where real people still live in vast numbers as the result of these elections so vividly demonstrated yesterday. I hope this America, which I love dearly, finally found its voice.    

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