Tuesday, March 21, 2023

A Picture Worth A Thousand Words.

Here is a photo from Syria, from Aleppo. Syrians doing their own version of Immortal Regiment carrying photos of Russian servicemen who died fighting for Syria's independence and clearing it from ISIS plague.  

This is everything one needs to know about new world Russia and China are building. In related news, the names (identities) of foreign "volunteers" in 404 who executed Russian POWs in September 2022 in the town of Petropavlovka have been revealed--primarily citizens of the US, Poland, Finland and South Africa. One of them is a porn "star". I guess they better start thinking about laying very low for the rest of their lives.

In Order To Not Misread Things.

This is regarding Chinese peace plan. Read attentively Putin's words: 

Translation: “Of course, we have not ignored the situation around Ukraine. We believe that many of the provisions of the peace plan outlined by China are consonant with Russian approaches and could be taken as the basis for a peaceful settlement when they are ready for it in the West and in Kiev. However, so far we are not seeing such readiness from their side."

Moreover, yesterday's statement from Russian Foreign Ministry reacting to some initiatives from the West leaves no doubt about the nature of "negotiations" (a euphemism for articles of capitulation) which may precede any "settlement". 

МОСКВА, 21 мар — РИА Новости. США, Великобритания, Франция и Германия не могут претендовать на роль нейтральных посредников в мирном процессе по Украине, поскольку они участвуют в конфликте с Россией, заявили РИА Новости в МИД. Так там прокомментировали предложение бывшего главы Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности Вольфганга Ишингера создать контактную группу по Украине, чтобы "запустить мирный процесс". Участвовать в ней, по его мнению, должны Вашингтон, Лондон, Париж и Берлин. "Официально нам об этой инициативе ничего не известно. <...> Тем не менее идея Ишингера вызывает закономерные вопросы. Прежде всего потому, что все упомянутые четыре страны сами являются участниками конфликта с Россией, который продолжается на территории Украины", — сказали в МИД, уточнив, что узнали о предложении из прессы. 
Translation: MOSCOW, March 21 - RIA Novosti. The United States, Great Britain, France and Germany cannot claim the role of neutral mediators in the peace process in Ukraine, since they are involved in a conflict with Russia, the Foreign Ministry told RIA Novosti. So they commented on the proposal of the former head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, to create a contact group on Ukraine in order to "launch the peace process." In his opinion, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin should participate in it. "Officially, we do not know anything about this initiative. <...> Nevertheless, Ischinger's idea raises legitimate questions. First of all, because all the four countries mentioned are themselves participants in the conflict with Russia, which continues on the territory of Ukraine," the source said. Foreign Ministry, specifying that they learned about the proposal from the press.
 
So, the SMO continues until utter destruction of remaining VSU and their NATO "volunteers", and Russian Army continues to gain new territories. Moscow's position on any Ukrainian "settlement" is well articulated and reiterated by Kremlin on many occasions. Those are de facto articles of capitulation for the remnants of 404 and, by extension, of the West: demilitarization, non-block neutral status of Ukraine, acceptance of the territorial realities, removal of all sanctions from Russia etc. These are key points, there are many other ones, including implied, such as respect for Russophone population in the remnants of Ukraine, which by implication means autonomy and eventual declaration of independence for such oblasts as Nikolaev, Odessa and Kharkov. 
 
As much as Douglas Macgregor doesn't know the history of WW II (he could be surprised to learn that the kill ratio between Axis and the Red Army on the Eastern Front was 1.3 to 1 in favor of Axis), he is absolutely correct in pointing out that Ukraine already de facto ceased to exist as a viable state, and that it seems that the order "to disengage" was given in the combined West and the US is desperately looking for exit. Yes, the signs are already in place. As per review of the outcomes, many good ones, of very busy work of both sides in Moscow, I will try to make video tomorrow, but it is already clear that the break of Russia from the West has been accomplished, and Russia supported Chinese Yuan as the other intermediate reserve currency (Russian-Chinese payment are now 65% in Yuans and Rubles) before, I guess, new currency will be worked out. I know that Washington and Brussels are looking at the events in Moscow in sheer terror. This is your primer for Tuesday.

Monday, March 20, 2023

Same As With "Iranian" Drones.

To close this stupid issue of "Chinese weapons to Russia". When even these cretins cannot confirm it:

У Евросоюза нет доказательств того, что Китай поставляет оружие России, заявил глава дипломатии ЕС Жозеп Боррель на пресс-конференции по итогам заседания Совета ЕС в Брюсселе. Также, по словам Борреля, нет доказательств и того, что Китай планирует это делать, передает ТАСС. Ранее The Wall Street Journal писала, что Китай может  рассматривать возможность передать России беспилотники и артиллерийские системы для использования в зоне СВО. Напомним, Пекин заявлял, что Китай не является стороной конфликта на Украине и не поставляет никому оружие.

Translation: The European Union has no evidence that China is supplying weapons to Russia, EU diplomat Josep Borrell said at a press conference following the EU Council meeting in Brussels. Also, according to Borrell, there is no evidence that China plans to do this, TASS reports. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal wrote that China may consider transferring drones and artillery systems to Russia for use in the NWO zone. Recall that Beijing has stated that China is not a party to the conflict in Ukraine and does not supply weapons to anyone.

I repeat, again: every single US (or Western) MSM is a primitive propaganda outlet and tabloid. All of them, without exceptions. I hope we will stop asking these frivolous questions about Iran, China, Brazil, Zamunda, what have you trying "to supply" Russia with weapons.

China's Naval Problem.

I already mentioned it many times, including today in my latest video. 

Here is the illustration to China's naval (maritime) problem, and to how military professionals think. 

I deliberately chose the range of roughly 1,500 kilometers measured form Shanghai. As you can see yourself CBG-1, 2 and 3 stand for the US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups. Three of them deployed in shaded rectangles. Now comes the problem, it is purely operational and mathematical one. If one believes in accuracy of China's DF-21 ballistic anti-shipping missiles with their range declared as... 1,500 kilometers, it is their opinion and they are welcome to have it. But, if one considers this:

Which is, of course, good ol' carrier-borne F-18 Super-hornet and a missile known as AGM-158 JASSM, one should immediately get the pen and a piece of paper (or calculator) and should start counting. Each US Navy's Nimitz-class nuclear powered carrier (CVN) carries around, here is the data:

In other words, an average TACAIR has around 48 carriers of this said JASSM, whose range varies from 950 to 1,900 km (for XR version), which also is "extended" by the range of the carrier, which is a said F-18 in its different versions. Add here those roughly 600-700 kilometers and you get the picture: the air wing can launch a salvo of JASSMs BEYOND the range of the anti-CBG DF-21 missiles. Simple arithmetic: 950+700=1,650 km, or, in case of JASSM XR, 1,900 + 700 =2,600 km. But that is in case of the attack of the ground targets in the mainland China. JASSM, however, is also and even primarily so--anti-shipping missile. Yes, it is a typical American anti-shipping missile--subsonic and not particularly maneuverable. But... as you can count, JUST three US Navy CBGs you can immediately recognize that in their alpha-strikes, those three can have 48 x 3 = 144 strike aircraft simultaneously and each of those F-18s can carry... 4 JASSMs. Let's not be primitive and imagine that some of those F-18s will have pure air-defense configuration. So, let's say that we will have on average not 4 but 3 JASSM per F-18. Multiply: 144 x 3 = 432 JASSMs in the first salvo. 

Do you know what those are for in the first run? No, not Shanghai--those are for PLAN's surface fleet which will have to face this salvo. What do you think, will they successfully repeal it? Wanna try Salvo Model with coefficients which DO NOT favor Chinese surface fleet? Or, have you heard about USAF being trained with carrying same JASSMs (look up numbers of B-1Bs and B-2s). You may counter--but what about PLAN's carriers. Well... with 11-14 Virginia-class SSNs in the theater it is a very risky proposition for Chinese carriers to venture beyond First Island Chain.  So, that IS the naval (maritime) problem for China in case of even conventional attacks. Sure, the US will sustain losses here, but those shaded rectangles are still away from the A2/AD bubble. 

Now, Xi is in Moscow. Four and a half hour they talk with Putin God only knows what about. Tomorrow the "narrow format" meeting heavily dominated by Russian Military-Industrial Complex people and something tells me that this will be on the table:

This is sheer 1,000 kilometers dash at M=2.5 and then the launch of M=9 Kinzhal with the range of 2,000 kilometers. The targeting for the strike on CBGs is not such a big of a deal anymore. Chinese have their own thing, Russians have Liana operational. So, 1,000+2,000 = 3,000 kilometers and you cannot shoot down Kinzhal, unless it breaks down by itself, but the salvo of 6-8 Kinzhals. Boy, I do not envy those people on the carriers. You see how simple it is? China desperately needs to sort this issue out and I am anticipating first official statements tomorrow anxiously. It doesn't mean that hey will come up with the list--no, absolutely not, but we need to look for those subtle signs and words which will allow us to conclude that some huge steps have been undertaken by Putin and Xi. 
                          
                             Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum 

They Spoke...

...tete-a-tete for... four and a half hours. As Ria reports:

МОСКВА, 20 мар — РИА Новости. В Кремле завершились неформальные переговоры президента России Владимира Путина и председателя КНР Си Цзиньпина, они длились 4,5 часа. По окончании встречи российский лидер вышел на улицу проводить китайского коллегу. Они кратко пообщались у автомобиля и пожали руки на прощание.
Translation: MOSCOW, March 20 - RIA Novosti. In the Kremlin, informal talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended, they lasted 4.5 hours. At the end of the meeting, the Russian leader went outside to see off his Chinese counterpart. They briefly talked at the car and shook hands in farewell.
 
How I wish I was a fly on the wall in the room where this "informal" 4.5 hours long marathon was held. Can you imagine now US media-intelligence complex wrecking their brains trying to figure out what did they discuss there? I want to point out, however, that Putin marked the territory when stated that (in Russian) Russia respects China's position on Ukraine, that Russia attentively studied this proposition and... that it will discuss it later. In diplomatic lingo it means: we appreciate your effort but... Recall that Russian diplomacy repeated, again, fundamental demands for peaceful settlement in Ukraine: demilitarization, non-block (neutral) status and acceptance of the territorial realities on the ground. As you may have guessed it, Chinese proposal or no Chinese proposal, it is a no go. 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is authorizing another $350 million in military aid for Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, as Kyiv builds up its arsenal for an anticipated counter-offensive against Russian forces. "This military assistance package includes more ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS and howitzers that Ukraine is using to defend itself, as well as ammunition for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, HARM missiles, anti-tank weapons, riverine boats, and other equipment," Blinken said in a statement. The United States has provided more than $30 billion in weaponry to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, which invaded its pro-Western neighbour on Feb. 24, 2022. The latest U.S. assistance was announced days after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley held a call with their Ukrainian counterparts and spoke of their "unwavering support" for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had also joined the end of that call on Friday, the White House said.

This is your answer and, I am sure, Putin explained it to Xi in detail. The question is not about defeating 404--for all intents and purposes it doesn't exist as a viable state anymore. At issue is a demolition of the remnants of Pax Americana, and that means rearranging contemporary combined West into the entity, or entities, which will forget about causing wars and violence around the world for a long while. That's the prize and Russia is succeeding in capturing it. Xi knows it, he is a very smart and educated politician.

Sunday, March 19, 2023

From Indian Diplomat.

Doctor Bhadrakumar doesn't mince words when speaking about Washington's paranoia. In fact, it is one of his more aggressive pieces in a while. 

The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Vladimir Putin can only be seen as a publicity stunt by the Anglo-Saxon clique, with the US leading from the rear. Ironically, though, the ICC acted on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the Anglo-Saxon invasion of Iraq in 2003, which led to horrific war crimes but the “judges” at Hague slept over it. Both Washington and London admit today that the 2003 invasion was illegal — based on trumped up allegations against Saddam Hussein. There’s no chance, of course, that the ICC warrant will ever be taken seriously. ICC has no jurisdiction in Russia, which, like the US, is not a signatory to the Rome Statute. But the intention here is something else.

The mud-throwing at Putin is yet another display of President Biden’s visceral hatred towards the Russian leader that goes back to a joust in Moscow well over a decade ago when Putin told him off brusquely, and is timed to distract attention from the state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow on Monday, an event that not only has spectacular optics but is sure to intensify the “no limit” partnership between the two superpowers. The Anglo-Saxon clique is watching with dismay the talks in Moscow tomorrow. To be sure, Moscow and Beijing have decided to stand together to bury the US hegemony.

Bhadrakumar finds a superb definition to American, or, in a large sense, Anglo-Saxon clique's foreign policy or what passes for it anyway in the deep recesses of Anglo-Saxon geopolitical misery--mud throwing. It is, and as my previous post about miserable lies of Senator Kelly states--this misery begins to manifest itself through a complete loss of always in deficit professional and human class. 

But Bhadrakumar goes further and concludes, as many of us also did, that the game for the West is up. 

Again, Biden would have thought he was putting Putin on the mat with the Reaper stunt and the ICC scam. But Putin is nonchalant, choosing today to make his first-ever visit to Donbass. Putin toured Mariupol, the port city that was bitterly contested by the NATO operatives in league with the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi brigade, drove a vehicle along the city streets, making stops at several locations and surveying reconstruction works. It was a defiant signal to Biden that NATO has lost the war.

The desperation is palpable, and the anticipation for the results of tomorrow's summit in Moscow is filled with dread for a bunch of villainous amateurs who through electoral legerdemain occupied positions of power in Washington and not only drove through sheer malice and stupidity their (their??) own country into the ground but put the world at the precipice of a global war, without even understanding that they are completely exposed to a devastating response and those who will survive will be hunted down as war criminals.

As new Russian meme reads:

"If you don't understand what you are doing, neither does you enemy." (c) Joe Tzu.

Boy, The Guy Is A Sore Loser.

This is what happens when NASA has to catch rides to ISS on Soyuz ships and Kelly flew "combat missions" against non-existent Iraqi Air Force and Air Defense. 

This is really sad when the guy with Kelly's C.V. lowers himself to a petty exhibition of own complexes, but this is a reaction of classic sore loser, because Kelly wouldn't be able to fly real combat missions in SU-30SM, SU-35 or SU-57 because he simply doesn't have skills and experience to operate such technology. Now, seeing how Russian Air Force downs dozens upon dozens of Ukie combat planes beyond visual range got to him and his complex of inferiority reared its ugly head. Obviously, when the USAF tried to repeat that:

They really couldn't and fell far short. Kelly also has to recall that USSR ended WW II with the largest tactical operational Air Force in the world and with an incredible combat score. Same goes for outstanding operational tempo Russian Air Force demonstrated in Syria and in 404 despite the fact of flying in an extremely hostile air defense environment--the experience Kelly simply doesn't have and probably still has some reservations about him never graduating from Air Force academy instead of his merchant marine academic background. 

But, in the end, here is a whole regular tactical wing of SU-34s and SU-30SMs flying in formation in the weather conditions which would ground most air forces.


But Kelly, of course, knows all about it, right? He flew once 20 years ago with somebody. As I already stated, the way American institutions delegitimize themselves through incompetence, ignorance and down right sour grapes is not surprising. What is surprising is how many US military people lost completely all pretense of professional honor and reserve which characterizes real military professionals. Senator Kelly is an Exhibit A of this sad trend.