A Profound Duh.

You all know by now that I do not trust practically any think-tank, be it a public one with a rather open (or semi-open) agenda or even more "mysterious" (and "secret") think-tanks that are closer to governments, especially if they are US think-tanks operating within American cultural milieu, which has a tendency to dumb things down  until they turn into a grotesque. One of the reasons, apart from incompetence of a majority of cadres in those "think-tanks", is the fact that in such fields as history, public or even military policy, any person with IQ slightly higher than the room temperature, given appropriate time and resources, can arrive to two mutually exclusive conclusions based on absolutely same set of data, which, in the end underscores the fraudulent and pseudo-academic nature of the field of a political "science." Take me personally, for example, albeit this applies equally to many people with a professional background. I can, with numbers and models, prove simultaneously that, say, Tomahawk missile is both an awesome weapon, while being simultaneously an obsolete and highly ineffective. 

I can make many of such mutually exclusive claims but I personally don't do that because of a simple golden rule--I am a public person and there are people out there who will, unlike it will be the case with most civilian people who wouldn't know the difference, call my BS and will ruin my reputation, which is dear to me, because it allows me to periodically publish books and buy good sour mash and good cigars on royalties from sales. This, plus, I, frankly, respect myself and people who read me too much to feed them an absolute BS and pretend that this is the way it is supposed to be. It is not. There are two ways of going about it--you either produce what can convincingly be proven to be the truth or very close to it, or you come up with a very convincing and professionally tailored BS, which will pass for the truth. Examples of former are numerous: I (not me only, this is just for illustration) state that hypersonic weapons are revolutionary and changed warfare. US pundits initially state that it is all just smoke and mirrors, two years later the US is trying desperately to develop own ones. You see how it works? Life itself puts everything in its place. But the latter one is a complex issue, when we talk about US vast think-tankdom and all those cadres abusing their sinecures in them only because they are ideologically pure not because they are competent. Listen to this:

Brookings Institution, the cabal of double-speaking neocons and liberal interventionists all of whom are rooted ideologically in DNC's insane irrational world of Comeys, Strzoks, Clappers and other creeps such as Brennan, all of who wouldn't qualify for a lawn mower position in apartment complex in any normal country, yet, here is this one of the America's "preeminent" think-tanks which is an originator of a "dossier", which, shouldn't it has been a reason for and foundation of America's national insanity and hysteria, would have been laughed out of the office of a low level operative or analyst in Zimbabwean or Papua New Guinea intelligence services. Not in America where "intelligence professionals" and "sources" create an alternative reality which, finally, did an irreversible damage to a country which becomes more and more incompetent across the board exponentially. 

No, of course, there was a laughter and an amusement, slowly turning into a worry, that nuclear superpower was turning itself into a global Jerry Springer Show. I can only imagine people in FSB, SVR or GRU having their eyes popping out while observing how a bunch of losers, including ones with Pulitzers, as Maria astutely observed in a video, assembled a pile of a steaming shit, such as Russia Collusion, aka Russiagate, so unbelievable in sheer cretinism of its assumptions and fantasies that one has to pinch oneself to make sure that one is awake and is not having some kind of Kafkaesque nightmare. Russians and Chinese didn't have to do anything but to sit back and observe how a bunch of creeps, from, now a global laughing stock, aka US "intelligence community", to a cesspool of US main-stream media were dragging the whole country into the tar pit. They DID succeed. The US today is damaged goods, ungovernable and spiraling down into economic oblivion. Nor do I have anymore any faith in AG Barr or Durham's investigation--it was ongoing now for far too long and, most likely, will end up not with a bang but with a whimper. 

But there is more even to Nunes's hints that Brookings is a beneficiary of Chinese "grants." Possible? Yes, undeniably possible, but how probable--that is yet to be determined. I have my ideas but I will not disclose them. Plus, even if it was true, China is steadily removing the United States as main market for her goods and, frankly, I am getting tired pointing out that Chinese economy dwarfs that of the United States and China has a shitload of US dollars and other "instruments" to simply buy the US, or destroy it. US convulsions in trying to stop the Nord Stream-2 or decouple from China (something tells me that China does the same), or trying to unleash new Cold War--are all signs of the situation which now is a meme and is usually accompanied by this caption: "seriously?" 

I guess the United States needs to really try to actually uphold its own Constitution and law and order. The more talking, as opposed to putting perpetrators behind bars, is done on American TV, while the country burns, the clearer it becomes that nothing can be discussed with these people. Plus, American "think-tanks"? They are tanks, all right, with no think involved. What did you expect from people with Ph.Ds in political "science"?   

In related news, Russian Ministry of Defense announced yesterday that trials of 3M22 Zircon are winding down and tests are successful.  

The recent dry runs, which were performed from aboard the Admiral Gorshkov frigate, have “confirmed the unique tactical and technical characteristics of this missile, as well as its ability to travel at hypersonic speeds,” the MoD said in a statement. The Zircon will be able to reach speeds of up to Mach 9, nine times faster than the speed of sound. It will have an operational range of 1,000km, capable of hitting both water and land-based targets. The Defense Ministry said the Zircon is going to be placed on nuclear submarines and surface ships, but there are also plans to develop a ground-based version of the weapon. Tests of the Zircon kicked off late last year, with Deputy Defense Minister Aleksey Krivoruchko saying that the missile is expected to come into service sometime in 2021 or 2022.

There was a lot of festivities on Russia's four Fleets and one Flotilla yesterday due to Navy's Day celebration and Sevastopol was deliriously happy from seeing Fleet growing and doing its thing, as I remember it from 50 and 40 years ago. 

The only thing different today is that the explosion from torpedo was done then way outside of the Northern Bay and that one usually was gigantic and loud as hell. Well. If you are a kid--this is precisely the moment you decide to get into naval academy.

Roman Empire? Again?

I disagree with Pat Buchanan on his "history". It is not really a history but a rather tedious narrative of the American exceptionalist who knows many facts and still cannot properly juxtaposition them to establish this crucial casualty which is, allegedly, the focus of a serious historical study. Even when Buchanan makes sound observations, he often, as do most American pundits, ends up with this: 

How great a burden can even an unrivaled superpower carry before it buckles and breaks? We may be about to find out. Rome was the superpower of its time, ruling for centuries almost the entirety of what was then called the civilized world. Great Britain was a superpower of its day, but she bled, bankrupted and broke herself in the Thirty Years War of the West from 1914-1945.

I totally understand natural human desire to draw parallels with history's important events and subjects but this becomes, by now, simply nauseating. Roman Empire and the United States have zero commonalities in their histories and modus operandi. Bar some superficial political symmetries such as being a "Republic" and, in the end, being run and populated by humans, any appeals to the fate of the Roman Empire in relation to the fate of the United States is not only a-historical, it is down right risible.  

I already addressed this point before. While one may continue drawing wrong parallels and, as a consequence, conclusions on the fate of empires, I can only paraphrase Valery Gerasimov's dictum on war:

“Each war represents an isolated case, requiring an understanding of its own particular logic, its own unique character.”

Same applies to empires--all different, all unique and all go through rise and fall. So does sun and waves at sea. In fact, the difference between Roman Empire and the US couldn't be starker in the most profound way for a simple reason that, unlike Roman Empire, the United States can consistently be obliterated by "rivals" and, frankly, has a dismal record of military interventions and conquests. What could hit closer to home is, of course, relation of the United States to British Empire on which sun never sets, but did anyway. But explanation to the the collapse of British Power, which is much-much closer to us in historic terms than Roman Empire was given already and this one DOES apply. And I repeated this Barnett's brilliant insight in this blog and elsewhere numerous times, because it is spot on:

"… swift decline in British vigor at home and the failure to exploit the empire were not owing to some inevitable senescent process of history....That cause was a political doctrine....The doctrine was liberalism, which criticized and finally demolished the traditional conception of the nation-state as a collective organism, a community, and asserted instead the primacy of individual. According to liberal thinking a nation was no more than so many human atoms who happened to live under the same set of laws....It was Adam Smith who formulated the doctrine of Free Trade, the keystone of liberalism, which was to exercise a long-live and baneful effect on British power....Adam Smith attacked the traditional "mercantilist” belief that a nation should be generally self-supporting…"  

This has to be internalized by any political and intellectual elite of any great nation in the world, if one wants to continue to live as a legitimate geopolitical entity. The United States cannot continue to live and, in fact, it doesn't want to live as a viable geopolitical entity because they do not teach how to US "elites" and, in fact, feed them a steady diet of self-medicating narratives which are as related to reality as I am being a Chinese. 

While Buchanan narrates America's ills and states that:  

The Old Republic is facing a stress test unlike any it has known since the Union was threatened with dissolution in the Civil War. 

He fails to understand that balance sheet is so not in US favor that any comparisons and parallels to Civil War are also a bunk. The US is utterly bankrupt today and she cannot do a thing about it other than continue printing money and exporting hyperinflation outwards. Big geopolitical player who really matter--they know that US IOUs will never be paid, at the agenda today for the United States is the last chance to prove that she is worth something is to unleash a Cold War 2.0 against the enemy whose economy dwarfs that of the United States and it has a preeminent military power of Russia backing China and the US simply has no resources to "buy" Russia out. Nobody needs funny green papers from people who have a reputation for breaking every single promise they give. 

As if trying to prove the immense scale of the American imperial farce and demonstrate utter impotence. Pompeo called for alliance against China in his speech:

Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, called China a "Frankenstein" country and appealed to America's allies to join the struggle against a "new tyranny”. In rhetoric that echoed the Cold War, Mr Pompeo compared China to the Soviet Union and declared decades of US engagement with it a dismal failure. He said Nato, the United Nations, the G7, and "freedom-loving nations" must use "more creative and assertive ways” to pressure the Chinese Communist Party to change. It was time for a "a new grouping of like-minded nations - a new alliance of democracies" to oppose China.

For starters one has to define who those "freedom-loving nations" Pompeo calls on are. Secondly, one has to explain to Pompeo, after all he is a graduate of the West-Point and former CIA Director, how power balance is formed globally nowadays. I know, could be futile but still. Sharp-tongue Zaharova already expressed (in Russian) Russia's attitude towards Pompeo's grandiose statement--no cigar, Russia backs China an it is Russia and China who are, in effect, guarantors of the global peace and stability. Come to think about it, yep, very much so. Kremlin also had a similar reaction and underscored that "Russia doesn't develop friendships against someone."  

Truth to be told, I can understand US desire to de-couple from China and from the strategic point of view, in the long run, it makes some sense. The problem in this whole process, though, is a grotesque manner in which Washington tries to accomplish it. Trump may talk to Putin whatever he wants, as he did yesterday, but he needs to take into account that Russians, as in overwhelming majority of Russians, do not want to deal with Washington at all. Putin knows that and no, Russia is not going to be discussing arms treaties with the US until the United States shows any signs of being trustworthy. So, this may take generations and a removal of a completely corrupted US elite top-bottom, from Congress to media and having competent people getting to power. US literally has nothing to offer to Russia--zero. It is astonishing that we are witnessing such weakness and impotence of the empire, which still thinks it is so great--delusion is a hard ailment to beat. I would suggest for the US to continue with sanctions on Russia and simply call Moscow when Washington gets its act together, internally, at least. 

In related news, USAF "buzzed" Iranian commercial flight from Tehran to Beirut. What's next? Empire getting "victories" by bombing peaceful weddings (oh, wait...), destroying barber shops with stand-off munitions, shooting down commercial aircraft and blowing up nursing homes? As Larison notes:

Centcom confirmed that U.S. jets were involved, and claimed that they were conducting a routine patrol in connection with the al-Tanf base in southeastern Syria. This latest incident is another reminder that the U.S. military presence in Syria is unauthorized and illegal. U.S. jets have no business operating in Syrian airspace, and U.S. troops have no business being on Syrian territory. The jets were operating illegally to safeguard an illegal base, and in the process they nearly caused a terrible accident. U.S. jets shouldn’t be interfering with civilian flights over Syria. They shouldn’t be there at all. Just imagine how the U.S. would respond if the positions were reversed and a U.S. passenger plane were harassed in a similar fashion by fighters from a hostile government in another country’s airspace. This incident is bound to increase tensions between Iran and the U.S., which were already quite high following the acts of war that been carried out inside Iran in recent weeks. Since the jets were there to protect the al-Tanf base, it is worth remembering how useless the al-Tanf base is as a military outpost. It is supposedly there to block the so-called “land bridge,” but Iran can still send men and supplies into Syria by air. Even if the mission served some U.S. interest, this base can’t achieve it. The base serves no purpose except to occupy Syrian territory on a mission that Congress has never authorized. All U.S. forces in Syria should be withdrawn as soon as possible before something worse happens.

So, if anyone thinks that people who matter today want to negotiate anything with the US, they better start thinking hard. The Empire disintegrates in a front of our very own eyes and, unlike in the Civil War, the driver behind a chaos descending all over America has a very different origin than mere fight of US "elites" for the power--this one is of total insanity. 

In related news, Russia put afloat (in Russian) yet another Karakurt-class missile corvette (Cyclone) and is getting ready to take in yet another Project 636 SSK for Pacific Fleet. The Navy Day is coming and Russian Navy, certainly, has very many reasons to celebrate. 

 Ah, yes, Cyclone was built in Kerch in Crimea, same Zaliv Wharf where few days ago two newest Russian LHDs have been laid down. Yes, this image seems to be an official one and these are really handsome ships. 

There is a lot to discuss regarding Russia's armament programs and I will try to get to that soon.