A Short Note On Covid-19-2.0

Let's recall what I wrote exactly one month ago on this Covid-19 pandemic. Let me remind you:

We have currently: 7,537 deaths out of "recorded" 199,122 cases globally. This is 3.94% mortality rate. But the main question remains unanswered: HOW MANY people with virus are not in this statistics? I am going out on a limb here and propose hundreds of thousands who already went through illness or are in the process and are not counted. Deaths are EASIER to count than infection cases, for obvious reasons. Thus I propose: deaths statistics is much more accurate than the overall count of cases of coronavirus. But this assumption will dramatically drive mortality rate down. Considering the fact that MOST cases pass either asymptomatically or as light cold (or flu)--make your own conclusions.

I am former military--I cannot act on unverified data, hell, I am presently (well, standby layoff) in aerospace and I cannot act on unverified data, because I am the one who decides what materials and parts are good and which are not, because people's lives depend on that. For that I ran a lab which has a shitload of funny technology which deals with uncertainties. So, if to put it into the most primitive form--I spent most of my adult life, from military to civilian capacity, dealing with the issues of metrology, statistical analysis and developing information into knowledge. Well, Stanford University has a world class medical school and look what they say:

Stanford researchers said they took blood samples from 3,300 volunteers recruited them from social media from all over Santa Clara County. They were recently tested over the course of two days at three different test sites. Researchers said that, while many who took the test were in fact concerned they had the the virus, it turned out that many of them did not carry the antibodies. The study also showed that the death rate may be lower than once projected — .12 to 0.2% compared to the state’s projection of 3%. Researchers said they hope to use the study to project death and hospitalization rates as the pandemic continues. Stanford’s research comes as state leaders begin to discuss the next phase of the stay-at-home orders and restarting the economy.

Guess what, the death rate is NOT lower, it is ORDER OF MAGNITUDE lower. Moreover, Russian Vzglyad today comes out with a piece titled symptomatically:  

Китай подставился в информационной битве с Америкой

       China framed herself in Informational battle with the US. 

Why, you may ask? Very simple--the issue is not that China under-reported the number of deaths from Covid-19, as it turned out by 1290, total number being 3,869. Those 1200+ Covid-19 related deaths were not included initially into statistics. But that is not what is a wowser. As it turned out, the Chairman of the National Health Commission Me Fen reported that only 20% of tested had symptoms while other 80% (five times more) were asymptomatic and were not reported initially, which makes the scale of pandemic much larger. It also makes it dramatically less deadly. Multiply those confirmed 82,000 with symptoms by five and you get 410,000 infected, and even this number can be grossly understated, but which also makes death rate from virus is 3,869/410,000 x 100 = 0.94%, more than 3 times lower than initially was projected. And this is, mind you, in an extremely dense population center in China. Many Russians are not happy. Understandably so. Initial numbers were in the foundation of many (not all) decisions which were made on state level. What are the sources of this virus is a whole other story, but as I stated, I concluded for myself that the Covid-19 is not a biological weapon. Evidently in Stanford statistics this "weapon" is less deadly than seasonal flu.    

As I stated earlier, I will still reserve my opinion on the origin of this Covid-19 situation but, if your read my comments, I was in no way distraught over the fact that Trump defunded WHO. Even RT gave the tribune to such an opinion. 

While Trump’s cut-off of the WHO was mainly to save his skin, the health watchdog is surely not above criticism. To repair its reputation, it should stop meddling in lifestyles & focus on health issues, and tackling pandemics.     

So, we may face ahead even larger adjustments which will change statistics of Covid-19 and social outlook dramatically. I don't think China necessarily lied, I think Chinese were simply trying to feed info as it was unfolding  and WHO did "cry wolf" before. Swine flu, remember? So, take it anywhere you want but do not forget which US political party is tightly connected to supranational structures under UN auspices and represents radically globalist.... Oops, I misspoke, never mind, never mind, wink, wink.   

GIGO.

Ah, now, some interesting facts about Italy's pandemic begin to emerge. As Russians say--it doesn't matter how many, it matters who (pun is unintended) counts. As Ria reports (in Russian) there is a teeny-weeny "issue" with the high mortality rate (emphasis on "rate") in Italy because, as it is worded, of the "method of testing" (in Russian). Namely, the issue I am writing about non-stop and appeal to everyone to wait for the larger data set. Well, guess what: as deputy director of WHO stated today, Italy changed the method of testing, due to, get this, shortage of test kits and counts only "confirmed" cases against deaths and here is the direct quote of this WHO deputy director: if the mortality rate would have been calculated against the number of actually infected, which, and I quote, would raise the number of infected many times--the mortality rate would have been much lower. Pardon my French, no shit! 

As was predicted (well, by me) we are dealing with a classic GIGO--Garbage In, Garbage Out. It absolutely doesn't mean that serious measures against Covid-19 shouldn't be taken, they should. But as it is always the case in operational assessments in military, one thing you always need is a reliable verifiable data. One cannot base decision on unconfirmed and un-weighted, that is processed for their probability of being accurate, reports based on opinions of limited number of observers (sensors), military people invented Sensor-Data Fusion for that and have well-agreed upon mathematical apparatus which accounts for probabilistic assessment. I can report that my forces destroyed 50% of enemy's forces based on observations of the front line, but they will tell me nothing (unless I am aware by means of ISR) about the state of reserves which are moving and, once reserves are counted, by percentages describing super-pooper "victory" will drop dramatically from 50% to much lower number.  Even in the old times of steam when navigating oceans, when using Sextant to get a position line form individual celestial body, navigators would take usually five-six measurements within equal short intervals of time to average (that is partially resolve uncertainty) the measurement before applying it. Similar algorithms today are realized in optronic means of navigation and targeting--non-stop measuring, with constant averaging. Of course, today it is done by modern processors. 

This all doesn't mean that Italy is not in danger, but it does raise the issue which I raised few days ago: we are yet to learn (hopefully) how WHO arrived to a decision to declare a pandemic globally. There ARE questions about this decision and the panic which ensued. Russia, meanwhile, is operating the air bridge to Italy, the tenth military cargo landed just very recently near Rome, and efforts to contain and prevent will continue in earnest.  But after all is done and over with, we must ask ourselves a question even maroons in NYT are beginning to ask themselves--didn't we all go a "bit" too far? Meanwhile in good ol' USA Congress, as is expected, cannot do anything of value, being embroiled in.... normal political process. 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate's drive to pass a $1-trillion-plus coronavirus response bill remained stymied late on Sunday, as Democrats held out for more money to help state and local governments and hospitals, while Republicans urged quick action to give financial markets a sign of encouragement. Earlier on Sunday, the Senate failed to get the necessary 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to get the Republican plan over a procedural hurdle after days of negotiations, with 47 senators voting in favor and 47 opposed. Later on Sunday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, announced he would hold a repeat vote early on Monday, only to be blocked by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.

Isn't it wonderful? I guess that is how it is supposed to work. Right? It is finally raining today around Seattle, after two very dry weeks. One of the main ways Covid-19, or any other virus, spreads, apart from direct contact, is a an air-droplet way. Rain is a welcome relief from early Spring allergies and raising humidity to levels which help blocking all kind of airborne shit. I am in the mood for the melody.