They Say The Second ...

 ... F-15 was shot down. Here are some visuals ... I don't know which--the first or the second. 

Yes, those air-defense sandals. 

It Is Always About Math ...

 ... Larry gives some good "spread" about Houthis. 

The Mk 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) is a modular, multi-mission missile launcher widely used by naval forces worldwide. Let’s review its key features and capabilities: The Mk 41 VLS was initially developed for the U.S. Navy’s Aegis-equipped guided missile cruisers to enhance air threat protection for naval battle groups. It has since evolved into a so-called versatile system supporting multiple mission areas, including anti-aircraft, anti-surface, anti-submarine, ballistic missile defense, and land attack. Only one teeny, tiny problem — the VLS cannot be reloaded at sea. Once the supplied quantity of missiles are fired, the ship — a destroyer or a cruiser — has to go to a port in order to reload. That is why the CSGs could not remain in the Red Sea during the Biden administration’s execution of Operation Prosperity Guardian. And I believe the Trump administration is going to encounter the same problem.

So, counting counts a great deal when counting for required force (wink, wink) and even simple straight-forward math gives one some impression. 

Was Difficult To Imagine Otherwise.

Pretty clear. 

МОСКВА, 7 мая - РИА Новости. Переговоры России с Украиной возможны на условиях Москвы, при этом готовности как Киева, так и его западных кураторов к переговорному процессу пока не видно, заявил РИА Новости лидер ЛДПР Леонид Слуцкий. "Возможны - на наших условиях. Украина и нацистская идеология, носителем которой этот марионеточный режим является, проигрывает. Поэтому если они готовы к переговорам на наших условиях - полная денацификация, демилитариация и многое другое, что мы уже выдвигали как требование в 2022 году - в этом случае, можно об этом думать", - сказал Слуцкий РИА Новости в ответ на вопрос, возможны ли, на его взгляд, переговоры с Украиной. Он отметил, что пока еще действует указ Владимира Зеленского, который ему самому запрещает любые переговоры.

Translation: MOSCOW, May 7 - RIA Novosti. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are possible on Moscow’s terms, while the readiness of both Kyiv and its Western curators for the negotiation process is not yet visible, LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky told RIA Novosti. “Possible - on our terms. Ukraine and the Nazi ideology, of which this puppet regime is the bearer, is losing. Therefore, if they are ready to negotiate on our terms - complete denazification, demilitarization and much more, which we have already put forward as a demand in 2022 - in In this case, we can think about it,” Slutsky told RIA Novosti in response to the question whether, in his opinion, negotiations with Ukraine are possible. He noted that Vladimir Zelensky’s decree is still in force, which prohibits him from any negotiations.

 

I want to remind people who continuously worry about Russia somehow yielding to combined West and starting negotiations. Apart from the obvious ad nauseam statements from Moscow that the West is not ready to negotiate, keep in mind this critical clause--with the consideration of the realities on the ground(c). This is critical, because this is the condition which terrifies West (nobody counts 404 and what it wants), because it is the doorway to de jure unconditional surrender. I am not talking about just geography, I am talking about operational-strategic situation on the theater of operations and we know now that the West exhausted its resources completely. It was de-fanged in the most brutal and merciless manner. It still can send a few tanks or artillery pieces here and there, but proverbial COFM (Correlation of Forces and Means) is decisively on Russia's side. 

 

Now another set of lamentations follows. Walter Russell Mead demonstrates yet again that all those "shiny" degrees in "strategy" from any US higher learning institutions aren't worth shit and are nothing more than degrees in hodgepodge collection of military-political facts, much of which are not even facts at all. Walter Russel Mead is a classic example of such ignoramus--a requirement for writing for WSJ. 

The Houthis May Embolden Beijing. In the Indo-Pacific, doubts emerge that the U.S. can manage simultaneous crises.

Seriously? Somebody has to explain to those "academics" that it is fucking 2024 and not 1924 with those magnificent iron ships of the line with their 16 inch guns blowing the shit out of defenseless tribes. The United States wanted the war--she's got one. Technological reality is a bitch and two can play the game of proxies. If you know what I mean. Recall this wonderful definition of the change in the negotiating position:

Did Walter Russel Mead and his colleagues shyster-"strategists" watch this wonderful movie? It is very instructive. 

Why? Would You Ask?

Very simple--embarrassment. 

MOSCOW, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia on Friday accused the United States of brazenly threatening it after a senior U.S. general said Washington had drawn up a plan in case it needed to destroy air defences in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave in Europe. U.S. General Jeffrey Harrigian said on Tuesday that "If we have to go in there to take down, for instance, the Kaliningrad IADS (Integrated Air Defense System), let there be no doubt we have a plan to go after that," the Breaking Defense magazine reported. Kaliningrad is a Russian region that lies on the Baltic Sea between EU members Lithuania and Poland. Moscow captured the region from Germany towards the end of World War Two. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticised the comments by Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, at her weekly briefing in Moscow. "Firstly we consider this a threat. Secondly, we consider such statements to be absolutely irresponsible," she said. Russia's Ministry of Defence rejected Harrigian's assertion and said the region was well defended."The region of Kaliningrad is reliably protected from any aggressive 'plans' developed in Europe by U.S. generals passing through," it said in a statement.

Actually, the response in Russia was much harsher than reported and included this:

Поставленные в Турцию зенитные ракетные системы С-400 способны «десакрализировать» американские истребители F-35, заявили в Минобороны России. Ведомство заявило, что Калининградская область надежно защищена от любой агрессии, подчеркнув, что возможности системы ПВО «хорошо известны всем натовским пилотам, приближавшимся к воздушным границам РФ на Балтике», передает РИА «Новости».«В полной мере это касается и «невидимых», только для американских налогоплательщиков и зарубежных покупателей, американских истребителей 5-го поколения. Трепет и волнение Пентагона по поводу вероятной десакрализации истребителей F-35 турецкими же расчетами ЗРС С-400 небезосновательны», – отметило ведомство. 

Translation: "S-400 systems delivered to Turkey are capable to desacralize  American fighters F-35 was stated in MoD of Russia. MoD stated, that Kaliningrad Region is reliably defended against any aggression and underscored that capabilities of Air Defense System there are known to NATO pilots approaching Russia's air border over Baltic Sea, RIA News reports. In full measure this also covers "invisible", primarily for American taxpayers and foreign buyers, US 5th generation aircraft. Pentagon's trembling and worries about possible "desacralization" of F-35 by Turkish combat teams operating S-400 are not without justification."

But why such a spike of militant rhetoric? Here is why:

courtesy of Ria.Ru

The area of oil refineries had a complete radar field with excellent overlap (redundancy) by: Patriot PAC-2, PAC-3 and Aegis. Not a single missile was launched at relatively slow (subsonic) and fairly conventional drones. Not a single one! OK, I get it, I am not politically correct and I never hid my contempt for Saudi military and their modern war skills or, rather, lack thereof. But there was a number of modern detection and AD systems in the area which failed to react!!! How could this be? Russia MoD was flat out unemotional when stated yesterday (in Russian): because they do not match declared capabilities. And in English, here.  Attack on Saudi oil facilities became a dramatic confirmation of this fact. I can wax technical whatever I want here, including discussing dead (blind) zones on elevation for Patriots with 7 degrees on elevation above horizon, or about the fact that sector aiming is still needed to be performed, as opposed to Russian S-series AD systems where missiles are launched vertically and then take "a ride on the beam" towards target.  

Is this whole affair an embarrassment? Of course it is, especially when such people like Mike Pompeo begin to come up with technically illiterate lame excuses thus rubbing salt into already badly wounded ego. Can he at least shut up for a minute? Now, we are all not kiddies here, we all understand that ramifications are much greater that even rising risks of war in the Gulf Region, albeit give DJT a credit where the credit is due--he at least holds his ground, for now, in terms of attacking Iran. No, I am talking about the mid to long term ramifications for American military technology and, as an inevitable result, further acceleration of a departure form already lost to a large degree position of only superpower. So it is not surprising at all that Saudi Prince called Moscow immediately after the attack. Evidently General Jeffry Harrigian could not control his frustration and spilled the beans in a sense of classic Sun Tzu: paraded his weakness. Recall this great quote from Senator Fulbright: 

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”   

The doubt has turned into a strong conviction globally now and this has all signs of an impending and recognizable complete collapse of the remnants of Pax Americana.

And The Trolling Starts.

On the other hand--why not? As you may have noticed, I didn't write a thing about attack on Saudi oil facilities by allegedly Houthis' drones (cruise missiles?). First, I have no free time to pour over every single piece of text and visual info to do post battle assessment If one is interested, one can easily download Methodology For Combat Assessment (CJCSI 3162.02) and have a go at it. Secondly, there are people who would do a better job than me anyway, such as Bernhard of Moon of Alabama, or my virtual acquaintances from Colonel Lang's Blog. Plus, I don't think that the stream of info on that matter stopped. We may yet hear some more on this operation by Houthis. And then, of course, my well justified lack of trust in Middle Eastern media sources. 

One thing which is clear here, if to assume Houthis' salvo (who supplied then with what is a separate matter), is the fact of the failure of the Saudi air-defense (US produced Patriot PAC-2 and ancient Hawk complexes) to do much about this attack. Well, guess what, Russia is ready to pick up a slack, especially against the background of impenetrable wall Russian AD systems created around Khmeimim air base in Syria against precisely the types of weapons all kinds of jihadists are trying to use. Vladimir Putin, being Vladimir Putin simply flat out offered Saudis to buy Russian S-300 and S-400 systems (in Russian). He even quoted Quran. Well, there is an English version now available.

(Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin said Russia is willing to help defend Saudi Arabia by selling it the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system after major oil facilities in the kingdom came under attack at the weekend, halting half of its crude production. “For self-defense, for the defense of one’s country, we are ready to provide help to Saudi Arabia, the political leadership of Saudi Arabia,” Putin told a joint press conference with the leaders of Iran and Turkey on Monday in Ankara. “It is enough to take a wise government decision, as the leaders of Iran did before, buying the S-300, and as President Erdogan did, buying the latest air defense system, S-400 Triumph,” Putin said, referring to the Turkish president. “They will protect any infrastructure objects in Saudi Arabia effectively.”

I can only imagine the face expression of some people in current US government and legislature when they hear (or read) this.

But truth is, we need to be cautious before jumping to the conclusion on who actually executed the attack and if it was, which is possible, a false flag. This thought, of course, doesn't prevent shiny military toys freelance masturbator and self-proclaimed "security expert" Kyle Mizokami already declaring B-2 "Stealth" bomber to be the asset Donald Trump can use to strike Iran. But what if it wasn't Iran behind that? But never mind--there is nothing more nauseating than some dude (or gal) with degree in English Literature, journalism or political "science" waxing "operational" and "tactical". What can possibly go wrong? Ah yes, late Tom Clancy.

As per S-300 and S-400 for Saudis, I don't know--it is, of course, a good business (money-wise) and Russia was in negotiations with Saudis on this matter for some time now. This attack, if it has been done by Houthis, who have all reasons to hate genocidal regime in Riyadh, then Saudis, indeed, may seriously consider switching to Air Defense systems which actually work. This brings us to a second, short point of Bibi visiting his "buddy" Vladimir in Sochi, where, according to many, including Israeli, sources Bibi was warned to stop exercising an illusion that Russia will not shoot down IAF planes if they strike SAA's personnel and facilities.                            

Netanyahu gets little from Putin in Sochi meeting

So, who knows, but rumor has it that Russia's VKS in Syria intercepted IAF's aircraft on three occasions. Is it true? Possible. Russians seldom advertise their power actions when diplomacy may follow after that. But, I guess, we will learn about all that in a due time. Israeli elections are tomorrow.   

I Would Love To Celebrate North American World Cup 2026, But I Can Not.

Both Bernhard of Moon of Alabama and Daniel Larison of The American Conservative to their highest human credit are ringing in all bells to attract attention to a possible famine and genocide which Saudi Arabia, with the help of UK and US, is about to unleash by attacking Hodeidah--the only port-city which provides delivery of food to Houthis. 

Here is Larison:

The Saudi coalition has waged their war on Yemen with flagrant disregard for the lives of the civilian population, and with the attack on Hodeidah they are doing the same thing on a larger scale. The U.N. and aid agencies have all warned against this attack because of the horrific consequences that will follow, and as usual the coalition governments have ignored those warnings and pressed ahead anyway. The U.S. has been a major enabler of the coalition’s war effort for the last three years, but instead of using its leverage with the coalition to prevent this atrocity the Trump administration is going along with and actively helping the attack. The Saudi coalition has been imposing collective punishment on the people of Yemen for three years in their bid to starve the country into surrender, and by attacking the port that the vast majority the population relies on for their food, fuel, and medicine they are intensifying their efforts to strangle Yemen to death. We are witnessing a massive crime being committed against the people of Yemen, and once again the U.S. is aiding and abetting the governments responsible for it.

It is important to understand that the Saudi coalition would not have made it this far without U.S. military assistance. The U.S. is not simply an indifferent bystander. Our government is an active participant and belligerent in this shameful and atrocious war. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of Yemenis may die in the coming weeks and months because our government values good relations with reckless despots much more than it values their lives.

I have nothing to add here, other than this atrocity being a direct and completely justified case for R2P and by the Right to Protect I don't mean a casuistic cynical imperial action which American interventionists are so fond of, especially when bombing with impunity innocents. I mean literally--a protection of population of Houthis from deliberately induced famine by a Saudi regime of head-choppers and sponsors of terrorism, who also happened to be America's "dear allies". Obviously, very little could be done to stop this atrocity at this time, but documenting it becomes a very important task.  As well as keeping it visible in media.