Why? Would You Ask?

Very simple--embarrassment. 

MOSCOW, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia on Friday accused the United States of brazenly threatening it after a senior U.S. general said Washington had drawn up a plan in case it needed to destroy air defences in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave in Europe. U.S. General Jeffrey Harrigian said on Tuesday that "If we have to go in there to take down, for instance, the Kaliningrad IADS (Integrated Air Defense System), let there be no doubt we have a plan to go after that," the Breaking Defense magazine reported. Kaliningrad is a Russian region that lies on the Baltic Sea between EU members Lithuania and Poland. Moscow captured the region from Germany towards the end of World War Two. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticised the comments by Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, at her weekly briefing in Moscow. "Firstly we consider this a threat. Secondly, we consider such statements to be absolutely irresponsible," she said. Russia's Ministry of Defence rejected Harrigian's assertion and said the region was well defended."The region of Kaliningrad is reliably protected from any aggressive 'plans' developed in Europe by U.S. generals passing through," it said in a statement.

Actually, the response in Russia was much harsher than reported and included this:

Поставленные в Турцию зенитные ракетные системы С-400 способны «десакрализировать» американские истребители F-35, заявили в Минобороны России. Ведомство заявило, что Калининградская область надежно защищена от любой агрессии, подчеркнув, что возможности системы ПВО «хорошо известны всем натовским пилотам, приближавшимся к воздушным границам РФ на Балтике», передает РИА «Новости».«В полной мере это касается и «невидимых», только для американских налогоплательщиков и зарубежных покупателей, американских истребителей 5-го поколения. Трепет и волнение Пентагона по поводу вероятной десакрализации истребителей F-35 турецкими же расчетами ЗРС С-400 небезосновательны», – отметило ведомство. 

Translation: "S-400 systems delivered to Turkey are capable to desacralize  American fighters F-35 was stated in MoD of Russia. MoD stated, that Kaliningrad Region is reliably defended against any aggression and underscored that capabilities of Air Defense System there are known to NATO pilots approaching Russia's air border over Baltic Sea, RIA News reports. In full measure this also covers "invisible", primarily for American taxpayers and foreign buyers, US 5th generation aircraft. Pentagon's trembling and worries about possible "desacralization" of F-35 by Turkish combat teams operating S-400 are not without justification."

But why such a spike of militant rhetoric? Here is why:

courtesy of Ria.Ru

The area of oil refineries had a complete radar field with excellent overlap (redundancy) by: Patriot PAC-2, PAC-3 and Aegis. Not a single missile was launched at relatively slow (subsonic) and fairly conventional drones. Not a single one! OK, I get it, I am not politically correct and I never hid my contempt for Saudi military and their modern war skills or, rather, lack thereof. But there was a number of modern detection and AD systems in the area which failed to react!!! How could this be? Russia MoD was flat out unemotional when stated yesterday (in Russian): because they do not match declared capabilities. And in English, here.  Attack on Saudi oil facilities became a dramatic confirmation of this fact. I can wax technical whatever I want here, including discussing dead (blind) zones on elevation for Patriots with 7 degrees on elevation above horizon, or about the fact that sector aiming is still needed to be performed, as opposed to Russian S-series AD systems where missiles are launched vertically and then take "a ride on the beam" towards target.  

Is this whole affair an embarrassment? Of course it is, especially when such people like Mike Pompeo begin to come up with technically illiterate lame excuses thus rubbing salt into already badly wounded ego. Can he at least shut up for a minute? Now, we are all not kiddies here, we all understand that ramifications are much greater that even rising risks of war in the Gulf Region, albeit give DJT a credit where the credit is due--he at least holds his ground, for now, in terms of attacking Iran. No, I am talking about the mid to long term ramifications for American military technology and, as an inevitable result, further acceleration of a departure form already lost to a large degree position of only superpower. So it is not surprising at all that Saudi Prince called Moscow immediately after the attack. Evidently General Jeffry Harrigian could not control his frustration and spilled the beans in a sense of classic Sun Tzu: paraded his weakness. Recall this great quote from Senator Fulbright: 

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”   

The doubt has turned into a strong conviction globally now and this has all signs of an impending and recognizable complete collapse of the remnants of Pax Americana.

Patriot's SNAFU.

Make no mistake, any complex military technology is usually very difficult to use unless one becomes a true professional and, as it is often the case, such complex systems are prone to failures. Such as S-300 here:

Yet, it seems US-made Patriot anti-missile system is unable to catch any break in terms of performance as of lately. First it failed to intercept ancient Yemeni SCUD, now this. The video is startling. 

I can only speculate on what made this missile "go back", but I experienced a friendly fire in my life and it is an incredibly unpleasant experience the moment you recognize that things get FUBAR really fast.  It was one of the closest (not the closest, though) brushes with death which I experienced as a military professional and it is definitely unique.  

This video is dramatic, indeed. As some news agencies report--one man was killed and several others were wounded on the ground in Riyadh because of this situation. So, one may then understand why both Saudis and Turks bought S-400. I have to, however, account for a recognized low standard of maintenance in Arab militaries in general and it seems with Saudis the pattern with Patriot system begins to emerge. 

In some sense this SNAFU and missile trajectory are emblematic of US foreign policy in a sense that Donald Trump and his national security people, obviously, have some bizarre understanding of the events outside the White House and if POTUS thinks that shutting down Seattle's Russian Consulate and sending 60 Russian diplomats out of the United States on a.. hm... trumped up charges in Skripal Affair are improving US-Russian relations, as he called for four days ago, one is forced to contemplate a possibility that those people in and around White House are indeed delusional. Obviously Russia's response will be symmetric and most likely US Consulate in Yekaterinburg or St. Petersburg will be shut down. There is even a probability, however low, that diplomatic relations can be completely shut down by Russia but we have to wait and see. Britanistan obviously wanted to feel in control and important when unleashing Skripal's false flag I see no harm for Russia in stopping any diplomatic relations with UK. In the end, British Defense Minister--Gavin Williamson--a guy with a vast military experience through his adult-life long managing a pottery and a fire-place manufacturing company, in a fine British tradition of Dickens' and Jerome K. Jerome's wit and elegance, demanded for Russia to "shut up and go away". I think Russia should do just that and break any contacts with UK. 

Sorting things out with the US may take longer but there is no doubt at this stage that Russian-American relations are damaged beyond repair and it would take a completely new crop of competent and non-corrupt American political leaders--a very remote perspective and prospect, if possible at all--to try to repair these relation. Trump is certainly not in this league, in fact no one is in the current American political top.  Russia, meanwhile, already did what Colin Powell wisely suggested for the US to do in 1990s--"We simply must nail a shingle to our door with the words "Superpower lives here". This is exactly what Russia did and that is why so much hysteria. But, as we all know, this too shall pass either by means of curing the patient or by means of patient's death. Looks like nobody in Russia gives a damn anymore what it should be.