Showing posts with label Alex Vershinin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Vershinin. Show all posts

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Even WITH the US ...

 ... no chance. But you cannot explain this to some dumbass from BI who repeats a drivel from Washington. 

Without the US, NATO allies in Europe largely lack a key capability needed to fight Russia. If President-elect Donald Trump cuts US military cooperation with Europe, its NATO allies there would lose a key capability needed to resist Russian aggression.

The United States didn't have this capability either for at least a decade and now it is simply in a much lower league in terms of combined arms operations, and the only "war" the US can conduct is terrorism and nuclear. Moreover, why would rich and getting richer Russia which sits on at least the third of all world's natural resources and which increasingly begins to make Europe look like a technological backwater and a shithole which it increasingly becomes attack it? To get what? A bunch of freeloaders? What a load of malarkey. Europe is a used condom thrown into garbage can, the only thing Russia needs to worry about is (not if) when Europeans will be driven into real poverty and economic destitution (they already progressed far) that they are not brainwashed into yet another march on Russia. It will be the final one for Europe, and majority of Russians would prefer the Europe to cease to exist as it exists today completely. It could be done without nukes, and the trophy teams will make sure that real European treasures of the past are secured. Russians will allow what will be left of London to enjoy gay Swan Lake though--that is appropriate for London's elite, and it is their cultural level anyway.     

Larry gets it. 

... they blame Ukraine’s impending defeat on the tardy delivery of weapons and Ukraine’s dependence on the West. That is not why Ukraine is losing and destined for defeat. Not only did Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) shred three different iterations of Ukraine’s NATO-trained-and-supplied army, it also exposed the West’s hollowed-out defense industry, which proved unable to produce and supply war-time quantities of artillery shells, artillery, Patriot missiles, HIMARS and ATACMS. Once the first Ukrainian army was eviscerated, Ukraine entered a downward spiral of having to rush untrained reserves to that front. Without having adequate training for new recruits and newly-formed units before they were thrust into battle, Ukraine lost its ability to field a force capable of maneuver and one qualified to effectively use the NATO weapons that were flooding Ukrainian supply bases. 

Moreover, Mr. Vershinin goes full Captain Obvious))

No shit, pardon my French. But to understand the nature of REAL war, of which yours truly writes non-stop for more than a decade, one must study REAL war, not Hollywood crap about such mediocrities as Patton or the tandem of sweet darlings such as Churchill and Monty who talked up a rather merely good Rommel to such heights that it became a meme already in Soviet military circles. One has to rephrase famous Clausewitzian truism that the main object of any war is to compel the enemy to do our will into Gerasimov's stratagem, especially as related to blood-soaked West: the main object of any war is to physically annihilate the enemy and then dictate our will. The main question remains--what are you going to do about this, when your bluff has been called, and operational and especially strategic amateurism has been exposed completely? 

But that is the issue of the continental standing armies of scale and the culture they generate of which most in Pentagon have no clue and readily believe any kind of a-historic BS and propaganda to cover up own military and economic impotence spurred by the "hyena appetite" of ignorant, uncultured, uneducated and greedy class of West's rentiers, all of who are past their expiration date and their legions turned out to be fit only for policing backward fringes of the crumbling empire. And even that they cannot do properly. They never could. So, The Enemy at The Gates 2 is in order, make it a mandatory viewing in history classes in Ivy League and Oxford ... together with gay Swan Lake. 

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Getting The Math Right...

 ... I repeat--Russian MoD gives numbers of VSU losses based on objective control. That is physically identifying bodies of VSU KIAs and wounded primarily at the line of combat contact. Russian MoD does not give estimates of KIAs and wounded in the tactical, let alone operational rear of VSU because it cannot reliably count them. E.g. couple of days ago VKS dropped two 1,500 kg KABs on top of Kraken Nazi battalion. The only thing which was known is that there have been 300 of them--nobody survives two KABs, so MoD stated with a degree of reliability that UP TO 300 of Nazis have been wiped out. But, as I repeat ad nauseam--the real number of VSU KIAs is much-much higher than total number of losses Russian MoD estimated at 444,000. 

And here is the professional who says the same, and he is from NATO. 

And here is the part which matters:

“They are missing over 10 million people. I estimate that the losses should be counted in the millions, not hundreds of thousands. There are no resources in this country, there is no one to fight.”
The point I make non-stop. Considering forces involved, fire density, stand off weaponry, duration and length of front it is clear that KIAs alone are above one million. How much above--I don't know, but the same way that "Stalin" couldn't have killed or imprisoned "tens of millions" people in the USSR, because it defies basic statistical methods and math and empirical evidence of 150 million living Russians, the same is true for the numbers by Russian MoD which are issued strictly on confirmed data with any, even highly justified, assessments removed due to insufficient probability. Numbers will change and will grow dramatically, the more Russian Army moves to the West.  

Meanwhile RUSI's US Army's Lt.Colonel Vershinin has a DUH! moment--LOL)) 

"In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state's ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres," retired US Army lieutenant colonel Alex Vershinin explained in a Royal United Services Institute commentary, "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine," published Monday. Unlike maneuver warfare, which is aimed at quickly and violently defeating an enemy, the attritional fight takes time, maybe years. "The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win. The West is not prepared for this kind of war," he said. Vershinin noted that Western militaries have long seen attritional conflicts as exceptions to be avoided at all costs in favor of the shorter, maneuver-focused clashes. Rather than a "decisive battle" through maneuver warfare, "attritional warfare focuses on destroying enemy forces and their ability to regenerate combat power, while preserving one's own," he wrote, noting that a successful attritional strategy "accepts that the war will last at least two years."

I have news for Vershinin, in conventional war with Russia there will be NO NATO maneuvers--there will be wiping out of C2 in operational and strategic rear and after that, after mighty F-35s will be shot down, any large enough formations will be detected and then annihilated by stand off weapons. Thus for the US Army alone 3,600 casualties a day--well, good luck sustaining this for more than two weeks. I repeat: Gulf War was anomaly sold to unsophisticated public through media as some kind of future warfare which it was not. One cannot learn real war from that turkey shoot. And they didn't.

P.S. An immensely important statement by Putin today:

Путин: Россия помнит о преступлениях власовцев и не простит новых предателей

Putin: Russia remembers crimes of Vlasovites and will not forgive new traitors.

Somewhere Solzhenitsyn choked in hell.