Monday, June 10, 2019

This Sounds Like A Desperation To Me.

Of course, Donald Trump is a classical bully but this is:

a) Forestalling what Trump actually afraid of and trying to look good in either case;
b) Does sound as a tantrum.

I am talking, of course, about this:
I, of course, do not want to delve into this "will never overtake the United States", since it already overtook it, not to mention gross, if not grotesque, overvaluation of US economy, but what do you expect? This is Donald Trump after all and the trade war against China, as is expected, doesn't go as planned. In addition, yes, I know, all this 5G thing--of course Huawei will hurt for a while, but, it already has some plans for Russia:
Blacklisted in the US and a number of Western countries, Chinese tech giant Huawei has announced an agreement with one of Russia’s leading internet and mobile providers to develop 5G networks in Russia.Huawei will assist Russian telecom company MTS in “the pilot launch of fifth-generation networks in 2019 and 2020,” MTS said in a statement. The parties signed an agreement at the Kremlin on Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, also attended the ceremony, as the latter is in Russia on an official three-day visit.Huawei’s deputy chairman, Guo Ping, said the company was “very happy” to seal a deal “in such a strategically important area like 5G.”
But as I always say, can we please, look at the larger picture--I understand that for Elon Musk-worshiping, Apple and Tesla consuming office plankton globally 5G may seem as a life defining "tech" (well, it is one of very many, actually), the truth is--it will be commercial aerospace where the impact on US could be devastating in a long run. After all, Airbus is already recalculating its bottom line against the FUBAR background of B-737Max and then, in 10 years, first serial CR-929 should take to the skies. But Trump, and those behind him, have no other choice but to try to stop China's economic expansion. I think it is too late. And then, of course, there is Russia with her military and energy might which is increasingly in China's focus. Russia is China's strategic rear and it seems the ties between the two only grow.
Five years ago many laughed at a promise of Russian-Chinese trade hitting $100 billion in 2018--today it is $108 and by 2024 should exceed $200 billion. In other devastating news for some, Russia for the first time in her history as a modern state has trade with Asia larger than that with the combined West. This is strategic. So, Trump is nervous--it shines through and it is difficult to hide. Russia moving closer to China, and vice-versa, is a first major indicator of the likely outcome of this so called "trade" war. Russia will be deciding now on how to keep this war merely a trade one and to avoid it turning into the hot one. In general, at this stage the United States is not in the position to dictate anything, let alone publicly demand anything from Comrade Xi--but then again, desperate times call for desperate measures. Zugzwang is a bitch.  

UPDATE 06/11/19. OK, didn't take long, no, really. A textbook case of bluff being called. 

But one fact which should have give a hint of a real state of the affairs: at SPIEF (St. Pete's International Economic Forum) 2019 it was not Chinese massive heavy weight delegation of more than 1,000  business captains headed by Chinese Leader Comrade Xi that attracted attention. No, that is expected. It was the fact that second largest delegation numbering more than 500 representatives was... from the United States. Isolation, you say, sanctions (wink, wink). Fact is, so called Davos Civilization is for losers who want to make only money and promote "liberal values", SPIEF is increasingly for those who want to build, produce, fly, ride, explore and develop. As per Huawei affair--does Trump understand what world he is living in? On the other hand--his "experts" team is just.... (fill in whatever adjective you want).   

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