1. I hate predictions (or prognostication, or forecasts or....fill in the blanks). I am also not privy to any super-pooper info from Ukraine which would set me apart from the whole host of analysts, some of them good, others just being in it for the sake of being noticed. I merely use open sources of information which are widely, and wildly, available in Russian media space, which provides info stream on several orders of magnitude richer than whatever US media politburo can provide. In general, I do what many former military do--OSI--Open Source Intelligence.
2. Colonel Douglas Macgregor, whom I consider one of the most significant American military thinkers (together with incomparable Captain Wayne Hughes) of the late 20th--early 21st centuries wrote a significant piece in Time magazine:
In this article he makes a succinct observation:
"In 110 days of fighting the German army in France during 1918, the U.S. Army Expeditionary Force sustained 318,000 casualties, including 110,000 killed in action. That’s the kind of lethality waiting for U.S. forces in a future war with real armies, air forces, air defenses and naval power. Ignoring this reality is the road to future defeats and American decline. It’s time to look beyond the stirring images of infantrymen storming machine-gun nests created by Hollywood and to see war for what it is and will be in the future: the ruthless extermination of the enemy with accurate, devastating firepower from the sea, from the air, from space and from mobile, armored firepower on land."
Well, giving the credit where the credit is due--to Slavic (in this particular case--Ukrainian Army's) doggedness, one cannot fail to notice that the events which are happening in Novorossia today should be really closely studied in the framework of the Combined Arms Operations. War--is hell. Here is just a single snippet of it in the Donbass village of Nikishino--you don't need to know Russian to get it. That is how the REAL war looks like.
3. The reasons Ukrainian Army sustains one defeat after another (see how it looks above) against the enemy which is fewer (significantly) in numbers are simple:
a) Utter incompetence of the Ukrainian Operation's Planners (that means General Staff) and of those political, military and intelligence advisers (wink, wink) from some unknown countries (those we don't speak of) who "advise" Kiev's junta on how to prosecute the war;
b) A complete "communications breakdown" between Kiev junta and Ukrainian top command, who are both busy with the political (and physical) survival and making money on the Ukrainian cannon fodder, whose quality drops precipitously with every (failed) mobilization. Kiev simply has no clue (or have some suspicion, only) on what is going on.
c) That is important--Armed Forces of Novorossia have at their disposal one of the best (that is one of the two in the world) C4ISR complexes in the world. Yes, it is Russian. In fact, VSN (Armed Forces Of Novorossia) DO fight a Net Centric Warfare against the enemy who still lives in 1980s. While Russian General Staff plays a very long game and is relying upon the school of the Combined Arms Operations which is without equals in the world, Ukrainian Army fights its "own" citizens who DO defend their own land and many of those "citizens" have an excellent Soviet Armed Forces' school, which varies from good small arms handling to decent tank warfare.
4. For the first time, it seems, Kremlin is finally committed to clearing a Nazi (no hyperbolas here) regime away from its borders. If to believe some reports, VSN received Pantsyr C1 AD complexes--these are really bad news for Kiev. It is also an indicator of where this whole thing goes.
5. There are NO regular Russian troops in Ukraine. If there were some, we would be discussing how Kiev to be patrolled and what to do with the Western Ukraine. It is coming, though.
6. If Georgia War of 08-08-08 was any indicator to neocons, Continental Warfare never died. It is alive and kicking, and, being pressed down by nuclear weapons, remains one hell of a bloody affair which uses a whole spectrum of the modern warfare--from tanks, attack helicopters, ECM and ECCM and a serious planning for the movement of the tens of thousands of troops. The difference here? C4ISR--the thing which defines how forces approach OODA. VSN has it, Kiev--doesn't. But that is for the separate, purely political discussion.
I, meanwhile, "congratulate" Europe with her pathetic "accomplishment" in supporting Kiev's criminals and getting herself into the truly serious war on the Continent--courtesy of the pathetic "academe" and other "analysts" who thought that Sorbonne's or Harvard's degree in "humanities" buys one a knowledge and understanding of war. It doesn't.
We have "to see war for what it is and will be in the future: the ruthless extermination of the enemy with accurate, devastating firepower from the sea, from the air, from space and from mobile, armored firepower on land."