Saturday, January 1, 2022

Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Related Directly.

To the news below about Zircon. As RT reports:
The US has declined an invitation to hold a formal meeting to discuss the legal details of extending the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which is due to expire in a year, a senior Russian diplomat has said.Washington has decided to ditch important talks on the bilateral treaty's fate, the Deputy Director of the Foreign Ministry's Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Department, Vladimir Leontyev, told a strategic arms-themed event in the Russian parliament on Thursday.
Two things must be considered here: 

1. Trump and his Administration are trying the only trick they know--to bully and apply max pressure (threats) to get whatever they seek (such as China joining, why?) and then, in the last minute, extend START Treaty. It is obvious that this so called "policy", if it is indeed A policy, doesn't work and will not work with Russia, not to speak of China whose nuclear arsenal is much smaller than that of US or Russia's;

2. Trump, actually wants START to expire--the point of view which I hold so far--which will untie America's hands in building up the only real power tool she has left, nuclear weapons. It is because the United States lost a conventional "arms race", albeit I don't like this term and prefer "being late" for the Real Revolution in Military Affairs. 

As was stated many times, the field in which the United States currently may have some extremely narrow lead or barely parity with Russia is in SOME, I underscore, only SOME, enablers in terms of American developed computational abilities, which derive from still impressive semi-conductor (microchip) industry. Sure, but, as I also repeat ad nauseam, no matter how good your enablers are, if they do not command state-of-the-art weaponry, their value drops dramatically. E.g. LRASM may be everything it is stated to be, long-range, stealthy, smart anti-ship cruise missile, but it is still sub-sonic weapon whose parameters allow modern AD systems develop firing solution, in the worst case scenario, within very few seconds (implying LRASM being detected already within radio-horizon). Consider this simple fact, Russia readies Pantsir SM with hyper-sonic (that is M=5+) missiles which will have no problems dealing with high super-sonic or even low hype-sonic targets at ranges of 40 kilometers, not to speak of a slow subsonic targets even in salvo, since hyper-sonic interceptor missiles shorten the "busy" time of a missile-control channel of AD system dramatically, thus allowing to switch to dealing with other incoming threats much faster.  

This is just a simple example, there are plenty of those, not to mention open admission by leading Russian specialists in early-warning and radar technologies, such as NPO Vympel's own Sergei Boev, about ROFAR (or Radio-photonics) systems getting ready soon to be deployed. Go to minute 31:00 in the video (in Russian). So, no matter how productive one's computer is, if it cannot control weapons capable to reliably, with good level probability, say Pk=0.7 and higher, kill the target it doesn't matter how sophisticated your microchip is, let alone how much your enabler costs--in real war with the peer it will be reduced to a passive expensive equipment. No American weapon in existence can intercept any modern Russian missile systems such as already fully deployed strategic Avangard or anti-shipping (or land-attack, depending on the task) M=9+ Kinzhal or just successfully tested 3M22 Zircon. So, let's drop any pretense of politeness here and admit that in a strategic sense the United States currently is in a very unenviable position, to put it mildly. The nation which US "elite", at least its largest part, and we can state this confidently, hates viscerally, Russia that is, not only called US strategic bluff, but doing so revealed a very real "missile gap" which for the United States will be very difficult, if possible at all, to narrow, forget about closing it. 

So, what's left then for the United States under these conditions? Right, bluff again--because it is the only thing which is left for an enormously expensive and highly ineffective American military machine. One of this bluffs is actual expiration of the START and then attempts to nuclearize US "posture" to the utmost, including manufacturing whatever the strategic and mid-range nuclear missiles the United States will be able to afford and hoping that Russians will buckle and submit to the American demands. Right. It is all from the same opera as current NATO exercise Defender 2020, which is built around "Kaliningrad" scenario and Russians already voiced their concern with this NATO "defending". The essence of the concern is not that some 40, 000 NATO troops can "capture" Kaliningrad exclave--they can't, unless they want to sustain catastrophic casualties--but in the fact that desperate bunch of losers in NATO who cannot win a single war in generations and are clamoring for showing NATO's (that is US presence in Europe) "relevance" may accidentally cross the line and force Russia to, indeed, rearrange stones both at NATO's front lines and in a deep rear. That, of course, reeks of a possibility of a nuclear exchange because the United States (other NATO members are military dwarfs) is inherently nuclear-biased nation because it knows, at least some in Pentagon do, that it cannot fight and win conventional conflict against Russia in her geographic vicinity in a classic combined arms warfare scenario. 

Thus, the United States will continue on a path towards complete nuclearization of its foreign policy, because at this stage the Empire has very little in terms of what can actually fight and win a conventional war with real opponent. Such a posture requires all strategic nuclear weapons limitations treaties to be disposed of. Plain and simple, but that goes far into the American history as a nation which didn't realize itself as a continental military power. Without this realization, even considering American glorious and rich naval history and global naval supremacy in the late XIX and good part of the XX century, we should always remember geopolitical strategic truism: the seat of the government is always on land--just ask Russians, they know.     

And It Flies.

Frigate Admiral Gorshkov successfully launched hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon missile from Barents Sea at the target at North Ural range. The missile flew over 500 kilometers (in Russian from TASS). I wrote so much about it that no matter what I write now--it all will be redundant. As was already stated, this year Zircon also will be launched from Kazan SSGN

Gorshkov. Courtesy of TASS.
I know there will be now very many incidents of a severe butt-hurt but we all have been warned in 2018 and in related news:
Translation: Krasnoyarsk (Kansk) air regiment will be fully equipped by Kinzhal hyper-sonic missiles by 2024. 

As you may have guessed already, those Kansk's MiG-31Ks (currently there are MiG-31BMs serving there) with Kinzhals could easily be deployed to forward Russia's Pacific Coast airfields (there is only 2,000 miles, as crow flies, between Krasnoyarsk and Vladivostok) and you know what that means. As I already stated many times--naval warfare as we know it is over. It was for some time already, but this time it is official.    

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

All That Jazz.

You may ask: why am I not writing about stock market. Well, now I am. The "market" got slaughtered in the last 2 days by losing 1,800, or whatever the number, points. So what? We have to accept two major truths about stock market:

1. US stock market is not just "overvalued", no, this is not the term--it is grossly and criminally overvalued;
2. US stock market has a very remote, if any, relation to actual real economy of the United States--it long ago became a place where financial speculations and fraud became Modus Operandi; 

Yet, there is a degree a practical purpose in this, allegedly Corona virus-inspired,  spiraling down because one can trade all kinds of shitty financial derivatives for only so long before the actual house of cards comes down. 
It really doesn't matter how the stock market behaves itself--in the economy where General Electric, granted financialized into the ground, is replaced by Walgreens at Dow, anything can happen. Economics based ONLY on bottom line or profit-only ideology is fragile by definition. Is coronavirus as dangerous as it is claimed to be? One cannot fail to notice that majority of people who died from it are of Chinese ethnic (genetic) origin. Some people go as far as state that it was a some kind biological weapon unleashed on China, well, I don't know about that. Now, what are the real chances that this thing becomes a pandemic? Let's relive those wonderful times of SARS panic. Origin--China again and, yet again, bat-related. Anyhow, this was expected by many and as one observer puts it:
One doesn't have to be a stock-broker to understand this.  

David Porter Of FBI Got One Thing Semi-Right.

I don't know what FBI does nowadays, I guess it defends US "democracy" against evil doers but here is the news story: 
I think that Mr. Porter doesn't understand the zest, so to speak, of this historic moment because he is correct that Russia is "watching" how America "tears itself apart", but he avoids, for some reason, mentioning of the fact that in this case ALL FBI counter-intelligence resources should be concentrated on investigating Democratic National Committee (DNC), which, together with Democratic Party's many rank and file DO "tear" America apart and thus, by definition by Mr. Porter, must be considered Russian operatives. If Mr. Porter doesn't believe me, he surely should listen to his very own direct big boss, POTUS: 
But while repeating delusional BS about Russia "wanting to watch" and "conducting brazen operations" Mr. Porter, accidentally, gets one thing semi-right:
“To put it simply, in this space, Russia wants to watch us tear ourselves apart, while it seems that China would rather manage our gradual economic decline over the course of generations," Porter said.
Semi-right Porter is because he thinks that only China wants to manage "gradual economic decline over the course of generations", because Russia not only wants but already DOES manage this decline in a number of different military-political ways, some of which are beyond the grasp of even China. But it is good that Mr. Porter at least acknowledges that there is some "decline" (granted a very speedy one on a historic time scale--within single generation) of the United States and this one is primarily due to a roughly 30 year-long very acute (End of History) delusion about America's real place in history and greed and utter incompetence and malice of US "elites" who, not Russia or China, screwed their own country royally and continue to do so non-stop. But then again, me writing this, could be construed as Russian "interference" or, Tucker Carlson could easily be accused and charged with being a Russia's asset because Tucker is exploiting "lines of division".  And, in fact, "exploited" those even more maliciously by publishing NYT's #1 gigantic bestseller precisely about how America tears itself apart. 
Did Mr. Porter and FBI ever try to investigate, as an example, some US neocons for warmup? Hm, I don't think so they will--otherwise Mr. Porter's career will go down really fast. So, back to fighting Wind Mills with all  Quixotic zeal and looking for the lost key in the dark alley under the lamp post merely because it is well lit there. 

Monday, February 24, 2020

FYI.

Just for you to know, I opened not exactly the mirror but same vector blog in Russian as Russmoothiex12. You can find it here. It is, of course, Reminiscence of the Future (in Russian). Same topics, same ol', same ol' with a slightly bigger emphasis on Russia's affairs, e.g. I long ago wanted to express my opinion on Russia's liberda in my own, very specific way, including, possibly, quantification of their imbecility and depravity--now I will be able to do so. I don't think that for the majority of my international non-Russian speaking audience those issues will be of any significant interests but, as always, you, guys, are all welcome to partake in my Russian writing using Google Translate and I think that Disqus engine is now working there too. Without going there first, guess what my first post there is about;))