Friday, October 19, 2018

It Is Friday, Your ROYALL Highness, Your Royal Lady, Incomparble Mrss. Tina.

How can I knell before you, Goddess of Rock'n'Roll..... 

Friaday... Pale Barman...

All this is a part of Universe... Rondo at its best.... 

 We rocked to these guys in 1984 in Baku's officer's club.... 


Islam And Christianity In Kazan?

I knew some Tatar girls who were drop dead gorgeous. But this piece, certainly, shows what Engels meant when he said: For all its Slavic dirt and baseness Russia still provides civilizational influence to its Asian underbelly. Tatars were not "underbelly"--they were as Russian as they came in Ivan The Menacing (I hate this Anglo version of "Terrible"), Grozny, capturing of Kazan which is today a world-class city. 

And then again, what is so "European" in Paris? Zero. My classmates, Tartars, went on fighting in Chechnya as battalion and regiment commanders of SOBR. So, it is more complicated. Actually, I knew also some Bashkirs who were damn good officers. Other than that--Kazan is stunning....

So? What's The News?

According to Guardian (yeah, I know, not the most reliable source of information or expertise), Trump's National Security Adviser John Bolton sabotages INF negotiations.  
The hell you say, draft dodger, neocons' neocon, war monger, a lawyer  and a coward, trying to get out of INF? I cannot believe this! Oh wait, I can, in fact I anticipated most of Trump's foreign policy agenda stated during election cycle to go down the drain pretty fast after he started firing his NS advisers left and right and, especially, turn it into the typical neocon delusion after DJT personally invited this Bolton guy to be in his Cabinet. 

As I, not for once, warned, Bolton is only good in operating within government bureaucracy, that is being a master of intrigue, manipulator and score-setter, with no actual expertise in any serious issue related to arms limitation, despite the fact that I know John Bolton not for once used bathrooms in both UN building in NYC, where he "served" as ambassador to...whatever, or in the buildings where the all kinds of arms limitations negotiations were held. Bolton, being a typical product of American political bureaucracy production line (Ivy League, "degree" in Law or Political "Science" or any other useless field) which is incapable of producing statesmen doesn't have any expertise in modern weapons nor fighting doctrine which they enshrine because Law Degree and knowledge of State Department bureaucracy are not good foundation for understanding a whole set of complex issues involved in arms limitations, even when one is "consulted" by actual experts from military to science-engineering filed. As empirical evidence demonstrates--in the US it doesn't work (not for once) in the last 70 years. Add here current POTUS, who loves military, precisely for the reasons of never serving in it, and now calling Jim Mattis a "Moderate Dog" and you get the picture. 

Russia knows that US in general, and Trump Administration in particular, are not treaty-worthy and there is no need to spend paper on signing any treaties with US, but what Bolton doesn't understand (he can't--it is beyond the grasp of people who have no serious military-academic and engineering background despite highest level of clearance) that posturing against Russia doesn't work. Trump, as usual, will huff and puff, and the US may even exit INF Treaty, or send whatever number of Carrier Battle Groups to Northern Seas across GIUK Gap--it all doesn't matter anymore. The issue is not just in weaponry which is simply beyond the grasp of US for many years to come, albeit there is an attempt to reverse decades of deindustrialization in the latest document. I didn't have the chance to review it in depth (just browsed it) but there are some good ideas in it but who and how will implement them is a whole other story. The issue is that Russia is a different nation--US elites simply are incapable to grasp it precisely for the reasons of them being badly educated, narrow-minded and very uncultured. Bolton is a perfect embodiment of that. So, let Bolton succeed. The results will be catastrophic for the US, not for Russia, but then again--inability to learn is a first indication of a very low intelligence and modern American elites have a very low intelligence. 

But look what real professional, US Army officer, combat veteran and former Professor in US Military Academy at West Point, Danny Sjursen wrote: 

Just read the piece by true American patriot and real professional, who risked his life (unlike Bolton, Trump, Hailey etc.) for what he thought was for his country. It is a bitter piece, and I, as strange as it sounds, feel Sjursen's pain--America I knew is gone. Just some islands, however substantial, of human integrity and decency remain. Let the INF Treaty fail and let Bolton's name be written all over this failure.

First Order Of Business.

Putin, yesterday, while speaking to Valdai conference, explained what is correct nationalism in his view. You can read it (in Russian) here. But one phrase stood out and not for a good reason. Responding to one of the journalists Putin stated:
Это наша культура, наша история. Сохранение народа, о котором вы сказали, вспомнив Солженицына, – это не только физическое сохранение, хотя, наверное, прежде всего и это имел в виду Солженицын, но и нашу идентичность как народа, иначе мы будем размыты, перестанем существовать.
This is our culture, our history. Preservation of people (nation) about which you spoke mentioning Solzhenitsyn--this is not just physical preservation, albeit Solzhenitsyn most likely meant just that, but also preservation of our identity as a nation, otherwise we will dissolve and cease to exist. 
I generally agree with Putin's definition of real Russian nationalism, but here is some info for a dumbass who mentioned Solzhenitsyn in the question to Putin--Solzhenitsyn has nothing, zero to do with the concept of preservation of Russian people. To his credit, however, in one of his faux-historic fantasies about Russia he does refer to some, other than him, Russian historic personality offering just that--preservation of people. Solzhenitsyn stole many things, such as massive parts of his GULAG Archipelago being a direct steal from Varlam Shalamov's diaries, which Shalamov categorically forbade to be exposed to Solzhenitsyn--he knew already then what "Genius of the First Spit" would do. But the truth is, before a humanistic and noble idea of preservation of Russian people was, as always wrongly, attributed to Solzhenitsyn, just couple hundred years before him a true Russian genius Mikhailo Vasilievich Lomonosov wrote his famous treatise On Preservation and Procreation Of Russian People.

So, can we stop finally crediting a shallow mediocrity and plagiarizer as a writer and an ambitious falsifier of Russian history Solzhenitsyn with things which were simply beyond the grasp of his feeble mind? If the trend continues, who knows, somebody will credit him, in the end, with invention of the wheel and writing War and Peace.  

Have you heard of Israeli attacks on Syria lately? Neither have I. Here is a bombshell explanation: Russia delivered three battalions (diviZions) of the S-300PM2 of full Russian version, with all netcentricity and modern signal processing. Take a seat not to fall to the floor--these are mid-2010 AD complexes with reliable range of intercept (shoot down) of targets of 250 kilometers. Any comments needed? Welcome to the no-fly zone over Syria (and, eventually, Lebanon), courtesy of the latest (hot, hot, hot) versions of S-300 which are vastly superior to what Iran received from Russia. For reference point: One diviZion (battalion) is somewhere between 8 and 12 launchers. If to take minimum of 8, then we have 8 x 4 =32 missiles per battalion. 32 x 3 = 96 missiles altogether. Per 12 launchers battalion size it grows to 144 missiles for 3 battalions.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Belousov's Gambit.

Paul Craig Roberts e-mailed me this morning the link to his latest on Russia and Alexey Kudrin based on John Helmer's (whom I do not read--I have my very serious reasons for this) yet another fantasy. Here is PCR's original post, some quote:
I totally share Mr. Roberts' feelings towards Alexei Kudrin, he is globalists' shill and a despicable human, but I have to state immediately:

1. Lesha Kudrin can pretend whatever he wants about his position but he has NO real levers in formulating any policies. So, he is free to spell out his own opinions any way he wants as a private citizen but he is nobody in the inner circle which sets those policies Kudrin and people like him don't like. We all know that he doesn't like them, and we all, Putin, especially Putin, know what he is up to. Putin most likely knows when Lesha Kudrin goes to restroom and what number, 2 or 1, he is going for.

2. I don't think he is Putin's friend. They know each-other, that's for sure, but friends? I somehow doubt it but it is just me--I merely speculate and have no reliable way to define their relations one way or another. 

3. Of course, Mr. Helmer goes to "interpret" very measured and smart response by Peskov where he states that he "only partially agrees with the fact that sanctions...", well you know what? Here is a direct speech by Peskov which is anything BUT what Helmer presents it to be, and I quote "On Friday Peskov encouraged Kudrin’s return to power, defending Putin’s performance “so far” – without rejecting Kudrin’s policy". Encouraged? Really? 
Пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков заявил, что отчасти согласен с мнением главы Счетной палаты Алексея Кудрина о рисках для российской экономики от американских санкций.Он уточнил, что на ситуацию в стране влияет не внешняя политика России, а международная обстановка. "Давление на Россию, принятие незаконных рестрикций, односторонние действия в торгово-экономическом русле, террористическая угроза, конечно, это все представляет собой вызов с точки зрения наших планов по развитию", — сказал Песков и отметил, что до сих пор властям удавалось успешно с этими вызовами справляться.
Let's see if Google Translate will translate this REBUTTAL to Kudrin before I will translate it. In related news--I know Russian language better than Mr. Helmer. See red in quote.
But, what this whole fuss with Kudrin talking to the collection of Russian fat-asses "industrialists" is all about? Well, methinks (and I merely speculate again) that it has nothing to do with sanctions but has everything to do with Belousov's Proposal for nationalization of super profits by energy, steel and chemistry companies. This Belousov's proposal created a storm among last remaining fat cats and Kudrin, of course, added his frustration to this chorus. Of course, the way Belousov proposed to deal with those so called "industrialists" was not accepted. No, no tax hike. Kremlin came up with better idea--those poor poor dears were offered to invest into the several dozen major national projects and were offered a list of those and most of those malnutritioned and suffering "oligarchs" invested those super profits into the nationally significant strategic projects ranging from transportation to infrastructure, to what have you. You see, Al Capone dictum works really well--one can get much further with the kind word and a gun than with the kind word alone. In the end, the guy at the top in Kremlin used to be a Director of what is considered one of the best, if not the best, spy agencies in history. 

So, this Kudrin's activity as well as squealing from all corners of Russian "liberal" media universe, especially such "esteemed" rags as RBC or Kommersant (or Novaya Gazeta)--all lap dogs of anti-Russian globalist cabal, are just hysterical screams of a rapist having his balls tightly in the bench vise and this vise being tightened with every turn of the screw.  Indeed, can you imagine a horror? No new latest Ferrari and Nice villa for some well paid whores serving this so called "industrialists" class. Belousov's proposal was a brilliant play and now we see some results already. I could be mistaken (so, please correct me) but from the top of my head 36 important national projects have been financed through Kurdrin's "friends". You may try (in Russian) to find the actual number of such projects in one of the last month editions here. Of course they are frustrated...

In related news--gigantic news--PD-14 has been certified (in Russian), now it will get EASA cert in 2019. One series engine is already made, by the end of this year another two series production engines will be manufactured and then onto new MC-21. It is a colossal event. 


On the Ukrainian SU-27 Crash.

But before I proceed with this sad occasion, I want to direct attention to the latest from Gilbert Doctorow who passes in US as Russia "expert" and who in his latest piece Propaganda and Posturing From All Sides... tries to pretend that he is somehow "objective" (quotation marks are intentional). In his piece we find this interesting statement:
As I stated not for once and I will continue to press my point in the next book--any talk about "economy" outside the military power geopolitical framework is an exercise in pseudo-intellectual masturbation and unicorn doctrine-mongering, and that is precisely what most economists have degree in. As this patently false Doctorow's statement so vividly demonstrates. Now, to the main course.

Here is a photo of Lt. Col. Seth “Jethro” Nehring, a fighter pilot with the California Air National Guard’s 194th Fighter Squadron who was killed in Ukrainian SU-27UB crash on October 16th while flying with Ukrainian officer under the auspices of "Clear Skies" exercises. 

It is always sad to see young life (only 44 years old) gone, even when one considers that these "exercises" had zero military value but were only to demonstrate NATO "support" for Ukraine in her existential struggle with Russia, which, as we all know, loses in Ukraine a division or two every single day. But let us continue. Here is a photo of an Ukrainian pilot with whom Lt.Colonel Nehring flew that day.

This is Ukrainian Colonel Ivan Petrenko (known for bombing civilians in Donbass before LDNR, well, Russia grounded Ukrainian Air Force completely). As you can see from his face, not touched by intellect, this "pilot" was morbidly obese--a first no-no for anyone getting into the cockpit of the fighter jet. But let's move even further, the SU-27UB these two pilots were flying that day. Well, here is the data: board number 963104240 SU-27 UB was built in 1991 and since then this aircraft, which was in and out conservation a few times, get this--NEVER undergone any repairs. The only thing which was done to this 27 year old aircraft--it was repainted. Do I need to go any further in explaining what was going on? Apart from inevitable issue of US still not understanding what they got herself into in Ukraine. Another interesting note: as one of the former Ukrainian Rada MP's (Kilinkarov) stated, the US was not really trying to fly "Russian" technology against ancient Ukrainian S-300P, albeit this too was secondary objective. The main one was to study psychology of Russian pilots since Ukrainian military, in American mind, is very close psychologically to Russian one. 

I have some news for those "bright" minds in US who came to this idiotic conclusion. Putting obvious serious national psychological differences between Russians and what today passes as Ukrainian nation apart, thinking that there is a viable technological, tactical and operational similarity between Russia's state-of-the-art Air Force and esprit de corps which exists there, as Major Filipov's act of unprecedented heroism has demonstrated, and a junkyard, demoralized, utterly corrupt Ukrainian military, have to be done by absolute cretins. And here we come to Doctorow's "insight". Well, apart from the fact that leading Russian specialist in Ukraine Rostislav Ishenko would destroy Doctorow's statement in under ten minutes, and Ishenko knows Ukraine on several orders of magnitude more than Doctorow ever will, apart from objective factors of economic decay across the board in Ukraine, not to mention internal political dynamics, I have to point Mr. Doctorow's attention to the fact that Ukrainian military was capable to "exercise" with the representative of worshiped in Kiev US military in 27 year old un-repaired junk of an aircraft piloted by the guy who is obviously not fit to be a pilot both physically and, most likely, mentally is a first indicator of a pathetic state Ukrainian military is in and that is the first indicator of the actual state of Ukrainian economy and State of Ukraine as a whole. I will quote myself yet again:
Military power in humanity’s conflict-ridden history mattered, matters and will continue to matter as one of the main, if not the main, pillars on which national power rests. It remains the case that, in the modern world, first rate military power is a function of a first rate nation-state which possesses the wherewithal to have such military power. Great military power by definition is a continuation of a greatly developed, economically strong nation-state.    

I don't think Mr. Doctorow understands this crucial determinant but then again, trying to convey these things to humanities "educated" products of liberal economics is virtually impossible--it is simply beyond their grasp that the nation whose armed forces are in the state of implosion, including from desertion, drugs, alcoholism; are armed with mostly obsolete or altogether ancient weapon systems and themselves know damn well that the only strategic operation they will mount will mean their utter destruction--all this reflects quite well on the state of Ukraine than any, traditionally cooked, "statistics". So, Mr. Doctorow, Russians know the state of Ukrainian economy better than you on several order of magnitude more, especially since the catastrophic dynamics of depopulation of Ukraine was admitted by Ukraine's very own government and Russia is dealing still with masses of refuges from Ukraine, EU does this too. It is the nation whose only representation is (was) this old unmaintained Soviet-built jet fighter and fat pilot who inevitably crashed it, taking with him the life of an American pilot.  

Important Addition (10/19/18):       

The moment  I mentioned Rostislav Ishenko in this post yesterday, he published his latest precisely on Ukraine. As always, succinct and precise. It is in Russian, but I suggest using Google--it is worth reading.  
                          How Civilizations Die. 

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Statement On Russia-Insider.

For a while now, the site Russia-Insider (RI) was using my name and some of my posts for the benefits of its readership. From the onset, the publishing policy of Russia-Insider seemed rather peculiar--they published a lot of materials from a so called Russian White Immigration's position and this position was primarily to present Russia's modern (XX century) history as a result of the Jewish conspiracy to overthrow some kind of Christian Orthodox paradise by Bolsheviks. In some sense Russia-Insider in this position is very close to famous falsifier of Russian history Alexander Solzhenitsyn. I looked at RI using my blog posts (renamed by RI) with little concern. Today, however, things changed. 

In today's publication at RI, titled:

This Acclaimed 1926 Novel by a Tsarist General Blames Jews for the Revolution (Double Eagle, Red Flag - Krasnoff)

RI and the author of this rubbish Mark Boden (whoever he is) not only continued a tradition of a-historic falsification (a method widely used by Solzhenitsyn) of Russia's history, they decided to do it by means of referencing Brigadenfuhrer SS Ataman Pyotr Krasnov. Here is this "White" general (who had no inhibitions of abandoning his Czar Nicholas II and moving easily to serve liberal government of Kerensky) on the service of Nazi Reich--exactly the same time when he was calling on "Russian Orthodox Hitler" and fought on Nazi Germany's side against, allegedly, so loved by him Russia. 
Brigadenfuhrer SS Krasnov
This fact of official WW II war-criminal serving as a very high-ranking officer of the war-criminal organization, SS, is no problem for whoever this Mr. Boden is. It is the same as no problem for fans of Solzhenitsyn-the-falsifier reading his statistical "sources" on Bolshevism which, for some unknown reason for the Nobel Prize Winner are merely a single "professor" Kurganov, Nazi collaborator and a good propagandist for Goebbels. Surely "reliable" sources. Somehow, RI and its Russia "historians" never heard of another representative of Russian White Immigration General Denikin who flatly refused any collaboration with Nazis despite very real threat to himself and his family. Not only was he a great writer, he was a Russian man of honor, unlike Nazi scum Krasnov, Shkuro or Vlasov. 
In light of this: I categorically forbid RI under any circumstances to use my name or any of my posts in this blog on their web-site. My family, as well of my wife's, as well as of tens of millions of other Russian families lost many our closest and dearest relatives as a direct result of war, both on the fronts and in the rear, because of the Nazi Germany and Axis genocidal war against historic Russia. I am not going to be associated with some money-grabbing self-proclaimed "insider" which has no even a remote grasp of Russia's XIX-XX century history, nor has required qualifications to make even remotely sound judgement on Russia's past, present or the future. 
I will expand on "Bolshevik Jewish" issue later. It seems this Jewish Question now got to me. If you want to see what it is to argue with brainwashed people, you may visit my discussion at Unz here.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Sad News.

Paul Allen has died. Young, only 65--in our times it is nothing. Undeniably, man of a great talent and in Seattle he will be remembered only in a good way. He did a lot for the community from numerous charities, to sports to exhibiting his collection of impressionists, to helping a wonderful WW II aviation and armor museum, including excellent Soviet exposition. He also owned MiG-29. Whatever we may say about Microsoft (and we all have a lot to say about it and not all of it positive), but Microsoft is one of those companies you cannot live without. I live just fine without Facebook and Twitter, Windows? Nope, can't live without. RIP, Paul. Hope you'll find a great continuation of your life in Tron reality.  

Friday, October 12, 2018

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. (c)

Above is the quote from Danish newspaper which, when translated, sounds like this in English:
We live in illiberal times. Group thinking, convergence and a steadily narrower sense corridor have highlighted public debate in Denmark. Each week brings new disturbing examples. Recent attempts to make the Danish opinion corridor narrower are a bill to "strengthen efforts against illegal influences from foreign intelligence services" with a maximum sentence of 12 years in prison if the crime is committed during an election campaign. The proposal is aimed at attempts to influence public opinion formation in Denmark and concrete decisions in both the private and public sectors.
 If you want to have a full English version of otherwise for pay article you may retroactively translate it in English from Russian here (famous Russian resource InoSmi-Foreign Media). It is stunning and it is full on 1984. Europe slides towards Orwellian reality for a long time now and it is getting there with acceleration. Prosecution for alternative political point of view not may but will become official in EU (of course, under pretext of Russian "hybrid war") soon. In fact, this practice is already partially implemented. 

This whole thing contrasts with recent statement by not very bright, as I stated many times before, Federika Mogherini who continues to live in La-La Land of refined drugs and insists that: 

I, of course, have some news for her--no, it is not. European Union may still produce some hip things and it is still a wonderful cemetery of fine things architecturally, art and food wise but it is not "cultural superpower" since in the foundation of the modern EU are degenerate values of multiculturalism, political correctness, emasculation, radical feminism, latent acceptance of pedophilia, complete sexual deviance, plus other things which culturally define European Union today. Europe is still capable of producing, here and there, some technological things but, as Elena Chudinova and, later, Houllebecq, wrote--it will end with submission to Islam in some places or with complete emasculation in others where the lines between man and woman will evaporate. After all the age of the third, fourth and even fifth gender is upon us. This is a cultural heritage European Union wants to leave to us all.

So, speaking in plain language, which sophisticated Mogherini can hardly understand--European Union is a cultural shithole and unless some nationalist forces come to power (it might be already too late) it will collapse completely first as a viable civilization, which is "culture writ large", and with it economic collapse will follow. I think, Donald Trump, at least partially, bets on this, especially hoping to shove down European "elites" throats his version of "energy independence" which must kill off any competitiveness of EU products, this is not to speak of China doing her thing with OBOR trying to overwhelm EU market with its consumer products. The piece in Danish newspaper is just another, using Pink Floydian language, brick in the wall. The wall will have to come up eventually to protect what's left of European civilization in Eastern Europe from the filth trickling from EU towards Urals. But yes, new Bill in Danish Parliament will be a great tool to beat down any voice of dissent among cowardly European population (with pleasant exception of Germans from former GDR, namely Chemnitz) on the way to the dystopian apocalyptic nirvana. 

But that is what also comes to mind in relation to the US--there is STILL a Constitution and there are those amendments which are the last barricade on the path of utter political degeneracy which threatens to abolish not only free thinking but free will as well. But that is what makes America worth at least trying to save, to right it. I don't see same for Europe, at least not yet. But in a bizarre and grimly ironic twist of my life I am forced to repeat again--I never thought that I would feel free in Russia. But modern Russia is freer than EU on so many levels that it, indeed, becomes an existential question--how could we admire them in 1970s and 80s? And yes, in good ol' USA I still can blow the brains out of any intruder and not face punishment and I can still say things I think because the US is also much freer than EU, at least for now.         

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Some Fast Info On My Book.

Evidently, there will be an audio version of my book (seems a done deal) for very busy people who prefer listening to reading. Understandable. I asked specifically for Betty White to narrate the book--they declined;)

It Is The Devil You Know--II.

Let's continue a bit of rationalization and reasoning which we started in the previous post with the same title  and get back to our global commercial airspace matters. Here is the MC-21 cockpit:

here is more:

This is largely Honeywell avionics and Honeywell is extremely proud to be a part of MC-21 program as main avionics and some other aggregates provider. For now. Honeywell is proud to be part of Chinese aviation too. For now.

This is how MC-21 or, for that matter, any other commercial aircraft flies. Straight and slow.

For this kind of flying commercial aircraft need all kinds of computerized on-board systems which control all mechanics and engines, which also provide monitoring and representation of the state of on-board systems visually. They also require radar, collision avoidance system, altimeters, navigation (usually inertial navigational complex with various correction systems, GPS, GLONASS Et all)  and the list goes on and on this is what Honeywell, plus some Israeli and French avionics companies pride themselves on doing it better than anyone in the world. When speaking about Russian commercial aircraft, however, one should be fully aware of the presence of Western avionics and some other systems not because Russians are so dumb and can not make their own, but primarily because having Western "partners" helps the process of certification and of reaching foreign markets. After all, there is also a reasonable want of many potential customers to deal with avionics, aggregates' and engine packages they got used to. But let us continue:

Here is a standard cockpit of SU-35:

 here is more:

This, meanwhile, are SU-35 (and SU-30SM) engines, or rather engine exhausts:

And this is how this damn aircraft flies:

If you want to get the point without watching the whole thing, get to 6:30 mark and try not to drop your jaw to the floor. Avionics of SU-35 presented in the photos above is 100% Russian-made and overwhelmingly, including elemental base, including processors, Russian-designed and produced. So now, let's cut to the chase. Not only modern combat aircraft such as SU-35 can do any commercial aircraft type flying easily (well, without passengers, of course) but they fly in such a way and carry an astonishing array of cutting edge sensors and weapons, that any commercial aircraft avionics and what it can do compares to SU-35 avionics as a horse and buggy compares to the top of the line Ford truck. In other words, try to develop AI based software and then realize it in own produced hardware for all-aspect thrust-vectoring engines. I can tell you immediately, it is much harder than producing pretty much unified and fairly boring avionics package for commercial aircraft. 

Here we are coming to this very important juncture at which we have to ask this straight-forward question: if KRET (part of Rostec mammoth corporation) is capable to make avionics which makes SU-35 fly like an alien spaceship while simultaneously using fully integrated sensor and weapons suite which commercial pilots (unless they are former military) have no grasp of, isn't it reasonable to assume that, say, KRET and UAC will have no serious problems removing US (or Western) made avionics from Russian made aircraft, together with 100% Russian designed and made engines, thus removing them from the sanctions which are coming? What sanctions you may ask? Well, the US has the right to prohibit any sales of aircraft to anywhere if they contain more than 10% of US-made parts. And this is the next step Trump Administration will take against Russian airspace.  

Russian know it. But once you remove P&W engines and Western avionics and aggregates from MC-21 (and, accidentally, SSJ-100) you get almost fully Russian-made aircraft which will not be affected by sanctions, at least not this way. And here is the trick. Look at PD-14--not a single foreign piece in it. In fact, this engine pushes boundaries of what is possible and promises enormous savings for customers. Some say as high as 17% over any Western analogue. Well, even if it is 10%--it is gigantic in commercial aviation terms. US plane makers know it. Moreover, PD-14 already launched another mini-revolution of sorts in commercial engines design (is it possible that it is somehow connected to Russian combat aviation, wink-wink) and materials. So, make your own conclusion if the makers of avionics and aggregates for SU-35 or SU-57 will be able to replace western parts on commercial jets? I guess it is always harder coming up in complexity than down and that is your answer. But perspective is even more threatening for the end of the next decade once PD-35 and CR-929 go on-line. 

If Russian commercial aviation market is large--its loss for Western commercial aircraft manufacturers is painful but survivable, the loss of Chinese market, on the other hand, talk about tectonic shift in commercial aviation and that is what CR-929 will do. Well, that plus I have some difficulty believing that all issues with COMAC 919 will be solved in timely manner (they will be solved eventually) but one way or another it is not real competitor to MC-21, A-320 Neo or B-373 Max 8. So, it's impact will be limited. The reason? China does not have modern engine, Russia does and, in fact, it is being certified as I type this. So, the trend is being set and, considering the fact that DJT doesn't control his own government, there is very little necessity of any kind of cooperation, especially with upcoming November sanctions and, I don't think, Putin really believes Trump anyway. But it was stated many times before--sanctions are good for Russia, well, except for the last vestiges of some so called liberal (in reality criminal) and so called "business" (mostly money making and laundering) circles of Russia who, as I said many times before, should worship Putin who is the only obstacle between this public and lamp posts on which they might be hanged the minute he steps down if they trespass. But that is a separate topic altogether. 

To Be Continued...

N-th Battle of the Atlantic.

I hate historical parallels, I especially hate them in military history and operational art. Yes, I know--we should learn from history and I totally support that and do it myself. But for goodness sake, what is the operational and tactical value of the Battle of Lepanto for modern naval combat? What is the value of lessons of Peloponnesian War for modern world? US as Athens? Or as Sparta? Really? A collection of contrived "analogies" (same as the US being a Rome) good only for consumption of uneducated pundits. Thucydides Gap? Isn't it all what is in the foundation of a disastrous US military and foreign policies written by none other than all kinds of neocon "scholars" trying to find historical symmetries where there is none?  And so it continues:
My quarrel with otherwise grimly (almost) realistic piece on US Sea-lift, symptomatically titled You Are On Your Own, is not even in the absurdity of NATO "fighting" Russia in Europe even under the assumption of fully secured Atlantic SLOCs--US military professionals (not some political D.C. generals) they know the conventional warfare score in Russia's vicinity and no amount of boasting and bluster can hide a simple fact that any configuration of NATO forces around Russia will be decimated conventionally. This is  not to mention the obvious fact that Russia has no intentions whatsoever to attack Europe, so the scenario can only be discussed within the framework of NATO attacking Russia. My quarrel is with this:
The lessons from World War II are on the minds of many in the U.S. military’s high command when it comes to logistics.
And what those lessons might be, may I ask? What, building Mulberry? I don't know what those people think but even the strictest of EMCON is not going to make much difference in case of NATO's (well, mostly Anglo-American) war against Russia, since no one as of yet knows how to deal with Liana, specifically designed for targeting and what to do with the ranges of modern anti-shipping missiles which are now in many hundreds and even thousands of kilometers. So, I may ask, and how does this relate to tactical and operation reality of the naval combat of the 21st century?
In an Oct. 5 presentation at the Atlantic Council, Foggo pulled up an image of the immense landing and sustainment force on the beaches of northern France in 1945 to demonstrate what was made possible by containing German submarine activity in the Atlantic.

“Operation Overlord. Look at all that stuff,” he said, pointing at the picture. "That would not have happened if we had not won the Second Battle of the Atlantic. That battle raged during the first few years of the war and the Germans almost brought us to our knees using the Wolf Pack tactics.”
Now they propose the Fourth Battle of Atlantic. Well, will Russia try to interdict Atlantic SLOCs in case of aggression against herself? You can bet your ass she will, but that will have very little to do with "Wolf Packs" and their "tactics". In fact, submarines will play only limited role in that. Today, any target, especially large merchant ships, is detectable and targeting information is provided in real time to weapon systems instantly. Not even strictest EMCON will prevent passive over-the-horizon means detecting and developing targeting for the opposing (well, Russian) forces. And then, of course, apart from modern C4ISR complex come all those funny high-supersonic or hyper-sonic missiles. That is where all those WW II "lessons" become absolutely irrelevant since ranges and velocities of modern cruise missiles is an entirely different combat paradigm which makes operational experiences of the past simply obsolete and inapplicable.

Indeed, it is possible to play with simplest Salvo Equations numbers when one begins to consider that most anti-shipping cruise and aero-ballistic missiles are launched beyond the ranges of carrier aviation, granted that carriers and their battle groups survive. In the end, it all comes down to how many bombers (and fighter bombers, such as SU-34) and their fighter escorts will Russia be able to provide. Something tells me that the number will be substantial, especially with mobile S-400s being redeployed closer to Russia's borders thus providing additional security for air-deployment from airbases in Russia. I guess simple middle-school compass and decent map will do in giving an idea that approaching Western Europe for any vessel will be an ordeal with very high probability of a tragic outcome. Any "flank" port facilities in Mediterranean and Baltic Sea become a complete exclusion zones, thus leaving only West-most extremities of French and Dutch port facilities tentatively (well, mostly theoretically) available for any kind of supply of this hypothetical US force which will be deployed in Europe to fight those aggressive Russkies. So, in this case, the title of the article is correct. One is also forced to appreciate Russian base at Khmeimim and the role it may (will) play in shutting down approaches to France and Portugal. Just as a reminder, the distance between Akrotiri AB and...well, let's put it this way--it is not going to last long. The question in this case which matters most is--because conventional campaign in Europe against Russia is unwinnable, when will the US in this scenario decide to use nuclear weapons as the last resort? We may only guess...  

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

It Is The Devil You Know.

I wanted to post it a week ago, when it just came out but I got overwhelmed with work. Now is as good of a time as any. Listen attentively to what Putin has to say at 5:55 at Russia's Energy Week summit. The whole piece is worthy of attention but what Putin says about sanctions is massively important in a grand-strategy framework:

Fact is, for a leader of a nation to state that it is preferable to be under the most severe simultaneous actions, since it unties the hands, is a wowser of a statement and it gives some insight into Russia's political and economic kitchen. Well, this plus Putin speaking in the beginning (from 2:00) about failing to comprehend why the United States destroys the US Dollar. I too, to be frank, fail to understand from a basic rational position why the US works so hard to finish off the last vestige of its power--the trust in US Dollar. But that is if one uses basic principles of rationality. But, of course, Putin does know why and I, at the risk of sounding as an arrogant a-hole, also have an idea. Obviously not as comprehensive of an idea as Putin has (after all--he has one of the best, if not the best, intelligence-analytical apparatuses in the world working for him), but an idea nonetheless.    

Only sublime people (or morons) would deny that today we face a gigantic geopolitical shift and global turbulence--all that, the resulting effect of an implosion of a liberal capitalism (aka globalism) which has no national and cultural attachment other than to itself and to the process of making money, while increasingly failing to deliver an actual value. Indeed, consumerism ran into the most horrifying (for shareholders) financial wall--it reached consumer plateau. People, some people, either "overate" in developed countries or will never be able to afford standard of living so well "presented" in commercials--it does not work like this anymore and the American Dream is, frankly, dead. It was dead for sometime. I know, I remember America of 1990s and I can compare. The contrast is startling and not for good reasons. Fact is, I have all reasons to suspect that the situation is even grimmer than it is being reported.

So, is there any chance that America will improve? Some think so, by applying the very same methods that are in the foundation of collapse of liberalism. One of them is, in Russian-American case, the fight with competition for the markets by means of sanctions against Russia. This is not to mention a rabid Russophobia of Western elites, which helps them commit irrational and suicidal acts. One of those suicidal acts is precisely squandering of own reputation as business entity worthy of trust. All that is in the past for the US and the same is approaching US Dollar.

Consider $5.43 billion Russian-Indian contract for S-400s. Let us be frank here and I understand that it may sound harsh but in simple language the US has nothing comparable to S-400. Not even close. In other words--US wants India as US own market but has nothing competitive to offer.  So, what does it do? US does "convincing" (well, blackmailing) of other nations to not buy Russian weapons. It is pretty much the same situation as to offer a car buyer with $40, 000 budget a brand new top of the line Toyota or used Tesla with broken batteries. It is kinda obvious what normal rational people would choose. The same goes for Russian-Indian other aerospace projects and technology transfers. Absolutely the same situation is with energy supply with US being in a constant bipolar state threatening and then recanting, then threatening again and recanting yet again, to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Any companies which want to cooperate with Russia on extraction are under the threat of sanctions. Good for Russia, since she was able to substitute key imports in hi-tech extracting and gas liquefaction equipment with Russian-made equally good analogues. 

So, not only Russia remains immensely competitive on gas market, she continues to supply the US with LNG. Thus the question: are they that dumb in D.C. that they do not understand that sanctioning half-of-the-world left and right they exhibit not US power but ultimate weakness to compete and doing so destroy reputation of US (well, it has been destroyed) as a reliable partner? With Russia in particular, the US is not competitive anymore across the whole spectrum of crucial military (and not only) technologies. In some, US simply has nothing, zero, to offer--such as non-nuclear submarines, cutting edge missile technologies and it increasingly falls behind in combat aviation. Now comes this MC-21 "thingy". 

One of the massive fields in which the United States remains highly competitive and a global leader is commercial aviation. I do like Boeing commercial aircraft, I will be missing a beauty and a queen of the skies B-747 once it is removed from the passenger service, I recall warmly B-727 and I have no problems with taking ever-reliable B-777 over Atlantic. In other words, I am a fan and admirer of the American (primarily Boeing) commercial aviation. But the juiciest part of Boeing's commercial contracts is medium range B-737 and it is precisely this segment where main money to be made. Now get this: Boeing fights with Airbus (with its A-320 series) for this immense market. Russia is not Boeing's significant market but Russian carriers surely bought many B-737s. Enough to take a look at Aeroflot fleet--42 B-737s, fewer than A-320-1, but still. But the rightmost column of Aeroflot shows 50 of Sukhoi Super Jet 100s which increasingly begin to fly (there are other carriers operating them) routes which used to be serviced by Boeing and Airbus mid-range aircraft. Here is Russian carrier Azimuth flying its SSJ -100 from St. Petersburg to Krasnodar. So, the shorter mid-range routes in Russia already see SSJ-100s substituting Western mid-range aircraft (B-737, A-320+1). Now imagine what happens when MC-21, especially with Russian PD-14 engine makes it to market? Yes, the removal of B-737s and A-320s will start in earnest. 

MC-21 is enormously competitive and it is significantly cheaper that either B-737 or A-320. So, the Russian state will have to do very little convincing of Russian carriers to buy MC-21. In fact, Russian commercial aviation is in full anticipation of this aircraft which was created specifically for this purpose--to compete with Western mid-range commercial aircraft and, eventually, come out on the global market. 

This video gives a pretty good feel about advantages of MC-21 over its direct B-737 Max competitor. It is very clear that MC-21 will have home field advantage in Russia, but MC-21's potential global appeal where the real danger to Boeing and Airbus monopoly is. How? Very simple: start from Iran and then, even despite own COMAC-919 (very slow and troubled development) there will be takers (possibly) in China and even in Europe. After all, nobody took SSJ-100 seriously too, initially. Now this aircraft flies in Europe and Mexico and people love it.

MC-21 is a much more serious competitor for a much bigger market segment and latest sanctions on Russian companies involved in MC-21 program are just a first salvo. But at this point, one has to understand why Putin wishes all sanctions, all of them severe, now. Russia, it seems, has already found or is very close to an economic model which works and this one has nothing in common with liberal capitalism. This model has no title yet but it is clearly some kind of fusion between state capitalism, socialism and free enterprise and it will be very interesting to see how this model will evolve. But all seems to point to the fact that it is already largely in place. After all, Russia openly proclaimed she will become number one arms supplier in the world and this, ladies and gentlemen, is as high tech and cutting edge as it comes. Ah, yes--dedolarization is in full swing, while President Trump threatens (in Russian--fresh) India and Russia. Evidently they have no idea of effects of a quicksand in D.C. For some odd reason this comes to mind:

To Be Continued...

Friday, October 5, 2018

As Was Expected.

India and Russia on Friday formally sealed the USD 5 billion S-400 air defence system deal and signed eight pacts at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi even as the US gave a guarded response over the development. The signing of defence deal between India and Russia may invite US sanctions. However, in a guarded statement, the US embassy in New Delhi said that its intent to slap sanctions against Russia was not aimed at imposing damage to the military capabilities of its “allies or partners”, PTI reported.  The US reaction came shortly after India concluded a deal for purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia. After wide-ranging talks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed the defence deal despite the US warning. Both the sides also talked about taking “decisive” action without “double standards” to tackle the menace of terrorism. 

The actual number (sum) of S-400 contract is quite a bit more (in Russian) but no matter--one way or another, the Russian Air Defense complex with the moniker "Triumph" is definitely triumphant both as a weapon system and as a hi tech commercial item. Of course, expect now all kinds of media military "experts" pretend that they know what it all means and how this means nothing but the truth is simple: Russia gets to keep her clients and she gets them all over Eurasia. Eight other major agreements, ranging from shipbuilding to space, have been signed between Russia and India and, something tells me (wink, wink) that the project for India's fifth generation fighter is far from dead. And, of course (rumors are already in the air) T-14 Armata is supposed to be also on a shopping list...somewhere. All in all, productive summit and, I am sure, new sanctions will follow if not now, then later. It is all about business, folks. 

Now, one is forced to ask a question--what future holds for arms trade. I already know at least partial answer to this. Russians when promising to become number one in arms sales are not bluffing, nor US is slapping sanctions on Russia left and right non-stop just because US elites are viscerally Russo-phobic, which they are, but that is not the only factor. The competition in real hi-tech markets--aerospace, weapons, energy extraction, just to name a few--is heating up. And while Wall Street is busy pretending that Walgreen's or Amazon really matter, the actual and reliable indicator of economic development is good ol' military and actual capabilities it generates. This explains well why the US slapped recently sanctions on Russian companies which are involved in MC-21 manufacturing, such as AeroComposite. US will try to sabotage MC-21 getting anywhere near international market, especially with PD-14 engine. One of the ways to do so is to slap the breaks on, as one of the desperate measures, sale of MC-21 with Honeywell avionics. Sure. The problem, of course, in this approach (for Honeywell) is that the nation (Russia) which produces 100% domestic avionics for SU-35C or SU-57, which makes any commercial aircraft avionics look tame compared to military one, will have no (in fact it is NOT having) problems with fully domestic substitutes which are already available for MC-21. So, who loses? The answer is self-evident. But about this later.  

Meanwhile Russian evilness and monstrosity have no limits, now Russians are guilty of creating a deficit of.... chocolate. The depth of Russian depravity is literally--limitless.        

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Lost In Translation?

Somehow, in the midst of all this FUBAR with US bureaucrats threatening Russia to start the war for whatever reasons, and the ongoing mass hysteria around new SCJ nomination, with new rape victims which Kavanaugh may have heard about once or saw on TV, "stepping out", one piece of real news got lost. It is huge:
See dynamics here. It doesn't stop there and it goes even further:
He also said the trade dispute was forcing China to seek soybeans from suppliers other than the United States, adding that China now bought most its soybeans from South America. 
Make no mistake, I get it, MAGA, Trump's "tactics" (capable to impress only sophomores from business schools) in "negotiating" the deals. But my question here, granted, now adjusted for Trump's foreign policy "accomplishments", such as allowing, in fact, initiating,  infestation of his own administration with lowest of the low neocons, is this: are they out of their freaking mind? Again, I get it, Trump thinks that he can convince China to "do better" in economic relations with US. Sure, but here is a very interesting dynamics from the other economic "front", this one is Russian.  

Even morons from US Treasury begin to suspect that this whole "trade war" and, especially, sanctions not only do not work--in fact, they hurt the US more and more. While giving its due to "evil, aggressive Russia" about to take over the world, US Treasury suddenly "discovered" for itself why US sanctions do not work on Russia. 
Obviously US Treasury must pander to such neocons as  Menendez and Corker, but behind this fluffy rhetoric is nothing more than admission of a failure and fear. In what sense, you may ask? Well, consider this: President Putin today is in India. After immense pressure on India the US applied in the last months the deal on S-400 is on and it is massive--worth $5 billion. Turkish intentions to buy the same system and even SU-35s in themselves could be a PR disaster for both US and NATO. Russia continues to press hard on immensely lucrative hi tech arms market with cheaper and better, sometimes much better, weapon systems than the US can offer. 

And then, of course, there is Russian energy--pipe gas, LNG, oil and nuclear--and here is the deal: the US is simply not competitive in this market. It is not even a debatable point, it is a hard fact of life and, like a victim caught in the quicksand, instead of limiting one's moves in order to slow down sinking, the US, it seems, is hell bent on destroying own economy and sinking the country with it.

It is a known fact today that US elites, with few exceptions, do not understand what IS US economy today, nor do they have understanding of its real size and capability. Russia, through the words of its high ranking representatives not for once expressed openly an intention to remove the US as number one on the arms market, now, China is not worried too much about energy issues with the US (to the US loss, of course) since massive energy infrastructure between Russia and China is nearing its completion. So, instead of finding compromises, Trump Administration thinks that it has wherewithal to be aggressive. Even if to adjust our train of though for alleged Trump's desire to extricate the US from "bad deals", one has to ask this question:
                               What about US Dollar?    
Well, even Bloomberg sensed something. As an example, Russia made dedollarization its official economic policy. And the issue is not anymore good ol' dilemma between weak or strong dollar which, supposedly, will make, in case of being weak, US products stronger while simultaneously providing for the US re-industrialization--this is not the case anymore because the world does not operate like this anymore. And while the bunch of ignorant US foreign policy "experts" pass the gas on how to preserve this "liberal world order", they should pay attention to the fact of real competitiveness of  the nations US declares trade wars and slaps sanctions on and why those nations are not enthused about this mythical "liberal world order", which is as liberal as I am Chinese. I have my very serious doubts that adequate assessment of reality by US elites is possible anymore and that is very bad news for America. I will make a review of commercial aerospace outlook soon--it is a wowser.   

UPDATE:  No comments are necessary.