Friday, February 6, 2015

How the "West" Was Lost. On the visit of Merkel and Hollade to Moscow.

As Karl Von Clausewitz stated in his most popular one-liner--War is continuation of politics by other means. What he forgot to tell to all those Ivy League or any other "exclusive" law-government-econ, what have you, "educated" morons is that politics is continuation of the war by other means. The moment Kiev junta army (VSU) got encircled (yet again) this time at Debaltsevo and is facing losing a quarter of its fighting force, and faces with it the disintegration of what remains of Ukraine into several fiefdoms run by criminal gangs,  this very same moment Washington's European puppets Merkel and Hollande hauled themselves to Moscow. Obviously they want to "negotiate" the "settlement" to a mess they, especially Merkel, helped to create. You see, the operational reality on the ground easily translates into the strategic maneuvering and, with that, into diplomatic, that is purely political, dimension. Voila', as they say in the land of Fifth Republic. 

Well, no matter the outcome of Frau Merkel's and Mr.Hollande's efforts, the cruel reality should set in Paris and Berlin once and for all--neither is the subject of international politics.  Both Paris and Berlin are objects and are being played for yo-yo by the power which actually sets their foreign policy for them. That is not to say that Berlin or Paris do not have at least some degree of freedom--they do. They can choose between badly damaging their own national interests and complete refusal to even formulate ones, leaving this task to the people in State Department, who, as we all know, keep the interests of their clients at heart and are ready to do their utmost to defend them. I heard Berlin is famous for its Gay-pride parades, while French are very good at rallying for....something, like...whatever they rallied for...after massacre at Charlie Hebdo by the unknown and unspecified, but I am sure very "spiritual",  people.  Will French rally in support of innocent and much more numerous victims of Donbass?  

No matter the outcome of their visit to Moscow it will have no real influence on situation in Ukraine until real players, Moscow and Washington, will see each-other face to face. But in order for Washington to understand the dynamics of what it directly created in Ukraine it has to understand two basic facts of current war:

1. Moscow, not Washington, dictates the military outcomes in Donbass. Contrary to (as always "insightful") many comments in "western" so called press, US supply of lethal help to VSU will only accelerate, not prolong, the end of Ukraine;
2. US cannot win hypothetical conventional war in Ukraine, if, God forbids, somebody will exercise this suicidal option in D.C. I stress--conventional, not even nuclear. Those who read latest edition of Russia's Military Doctrine will understand what is this all about. 

Once this will be internalized by whoever runs US foreign policy (or rather the absence of one), the real settlement can be reached. I will reiterate what I wrote many times before: the only thing which separates Kiev from sustaining a catastrophic strategic military defeat (what it is--is a separate issue) from VSN is....Putin and his willingness to play a long game and the fact that he remains a Europe-centric politician.  I don't expect Joe Biden to know Roger Scraton's definition of the Western Civilization. I know Putin knows it. 



  1. Congratulations to your new blog, smoothieX12. I always enjoyed your comments at the National Interest. The blog is even better!

    1. Current, neocon-dominated, Washington's ultimate nightmare is the axis Berlin-Moscow-Beijing. Germans and Russians are natural allies, France follows. Moscow already has a very good set up for China and India. Make your own conclusions. Sadly, Germany lacks politicians the scale of Helmut Schmidt. Hell, Shroeder had more guts than Merkel. As for France--Marine has to emerge.

  2. Putin's Europe-centrism is regrettable.
    Hopefully, his successor wastes no time on creating some special Euro-Russian "relationship".

  3. We are talking about Europe of Marine Le Pen and of nation-states here, not Europe of EU and multi-culturalism. Russia is European nation, no matter the geopolitical realities of the current moment. Everyone understands that currently Europe is very sick.

  4. Excellent piece Smoothy! I agree on practically everything. However I doubt this second Minsk attempts will end any better than the first one. i also think it is a big mistake for Donbass military to stop when enemy is on the run.
    I understands it is all about politic games but military it doe snot make sense to me.

  5. Some nice blog you got here. i am reading.

  6. "Russia is European nation"

    I don't think Russian elites believe this.

  7. Good post!

    I think you will like this blog below as well.