Larry Gives A Good...

 ... rundown on primary strategic considerations in the ME and elsewhere. 

While Israel is not letting up on its aerial bombardment of Lebanon, it is not rushing to attack Iran from the air, despite Netanyahu’s vow to do so in the immediate aftermath of Iran’s Monday 180 plus missile barrage. Why the delay? I doubt that the political extremists that surround Bibi are counseling caution. They are very likely insisting on striking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. However, I think some of the more sane military advisors are reluctant to pull the trigger because there are still too many unknowns other than Iran’s pledge to hit Israel harder if Jerusalem chooses to escalate. One consideration may be Israel’s concern about the reliability of its oil supply. At present, no oil is reaching Israel through the Red Sea because the Houthis continue to attack tankers trying to reach Israel’s Port EIlat or the Suez Canal. Israel’s oil lifeline, according to Pepe Escobar, runs from Azerbaijan, transiting Turkey, and arriving in Israel. 

Keep in mind, Azerbaijan does have its own problems, but President Aliev being a Soviet-educated diplomat from a family of a major political figure in the USSR, and a personal friend of Vladimir Putin didn't fail to recognize the so called "golden path" for Azerbaijan and it is certainly not with the West. Remarkably, Azerbaijan drifting towards BRICS, that is by default towards Russia, means also de facto a distancing in geopolitical terms from Turkey, despite a lot of serious economic, military and cultural ties between the two. But Turkiye herself, as much as her being a very important regional player, cannot solve her economic problems within Western framework, with Azerbaijan getting ready to be admitted into BRICS also spells the end to Erdogan's trans-Turkic ambitions, however unrealistic to start with in the vicinity of Russia returning herself into the exclusive club of global superpowers. 

There is a lot what is going on in the world today that is directly related to the upcoming Kazan BRICS summit and those anxiously anticipated historic steps which will be taken there. Meanwhile, just recently, Russian and Chinese navies wrapped up yet another exercise, this time in the Sea of Okhotsk, with both navies operating as a joint naval force. 

A lot is going on, a lot...