Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Ramzan Is Fine.

He was in Moscow today and his visit was to his uncle who undergoes, obviously serious, treatment for some illness. Izvestia published the story today (in Russian) and showed video with Ramzan Kadyrov and his uncle (very touching in the end when Ramzan kisses his hand). Ramzan looks healthy and in good spirit. In related news.

Rumors which seem to be not rumors at all have begun to circulate in Russian media sphere. It is about X-BD (or Kh-BD) cruise missile and its combat radius is stated as UP to 8,500 kilometers. As you may recall, Russian MoD merely stated that its range is "above 6,500 kilometers"). It is this very missile, including its earlier X-101 version which is being carried now by SU-34 fighter-bombers. Now, take the news from July (in Russian) that Russia ramped up production of SU-34s (and SU-35s) two times and make your own conclusions.  Keep in mind that SU-34 went into full serial production in 2008 and since then, in 15 years, Russia produced 155 of them. That means--using basic math--Russia was producing 155/15= roughly 10 a year. Just this January three new SU-34 have been transferred to Russia's VKS, more followed later. Even if Russia produces 20 of them a year, that means that by 2030 Russian VKS will have 300, give and take, of these aircraft and they will be able to carry X-BD. 

This is a strategic nightmare for the US and NATO, considering accelerating rate of production and (or) modernization of TU-160(M), TU-22M3M and even good ol' Bears. ALL of them capable of carrying strategic cruise missile, in addition to a variety of hypersonic weapons ranging from Kinzhal to air-launched 3M22 Zircon and other new systems which are coming. Most importantly, with this missiles, any carrier will not need to even exit Russia's air space and will be able to launch at any target in Northern Hemisphere. Well, Ramzan is doing great, let's wish his uncle full recovery. 

Karabakh, Armenia and... Chatham Circus.

They really do think that they are smart in UK. Dunning-Kruger all over. 

When one has nothing to say--they go for all kinds of rating: Top-5, Top-10 or Top-100 of all kinds of BS. It is the symptom of being hollowed out.

Practical Geopolitics.

It is not about "feelings", it is about doing what works for great empires. E.g. US and Russia are great empires, the US is in decline, though. South Korea is not--it is US vassal. 

For South Korea it is not just about "military cooperation", especially considering the fact that South Korea doesn't speak in her own voice. It is about Russia giving North Korea, finally, the real, huge I may say, chance on economic development. Especially when considered in terms of massive development programs for Russian Far East. Now, about Karabakh--I will put up my latest video where substantial part of it is dedicated to the issue.  

Meanwhile, enjoy NK's docs about Kim's visit.

It is in Korean, but you gotta love the pathos of the narrator, LOL)) Well, guess what--opening of NK to the emerging huge Russian Far Eastern and Asian markets will inevitably, over time, mitigate the most rigid manifestations of Juche ideology.

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Update On Sub Damage.

Which explains the cropping of surrounding in the photo, to avoid identification of the place which IS NOT Sevastopol--because it is photoshop. Russian submariners already pointed that out, especially this side "hole", plus, the "base photo" is taken from... the dock in either St. Petersburg or Kronshtadt. There your go--the "price" of Western "naval experts".  Most likely the damage in a front of sail is the only thing which did happen, but I already elaborated on it.

Two Points.

1. Good on Doug for rejecting Patton as some kind of example, and bringing in Ike, though, yes this non-flamboyant and thoughtful Ike, is great!

2. SM-3 cannot shoot down ANY hypersonic missiles, no Western AD missile can. Doug mistook ballistic missiles, which are NOT technically hypersonic while flying with speeds which are above M=5 primarily in the vacuum of  near Earth space. Two different animals. But it is good that he (and Pentagon) acknowledges Russian arsenal of hypersonic missiles. 

And, of course, Russia is not freezing the SMO. Good video, but still with some confusion about real impact of Scalp-Storm Shadow issue. Same goes for ATACMS.

Does It Surprise Anyone?

Except that it wasn't "errand" but deliberate, which is MO of Kiev regime and its Western curators. But at least it is something, isn't it? 

The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.  Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, soldiers shelled homes and a preschool, killing six. But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

No, there was NO "tragic mishap", it is as certain as NYT being enablers, together with other corporate media, of war crimes and crimes against humanity--the only skill they teach in journo schools in the West. Not to mention the fact that nobody, zero, among shysters and media whores who work for NYT can conduct any "investigation" into anything other than lingerie of presidential candidates. It is just that the time to face reality has come and they follow orders from "owners" of the "free press" in the West. 

Meanwhile America's greatest military minds, Austin and Milley call on support of 404 for a "Winter War". Absolutely, who wouldn't love to support 404, right? Meanwhile aggregate of VSU's KIAs for September alone crossed the number of 12,000. Somebody should tell Milley to pick up pencil and calculator and do the simple math and then project it n the US capabilities, or, rather lack thereof. Now to Rostov-on-Don submarine in Sevastopol. The photos of the sub, allegedly "not doctored" started to circulate n the web. 

While the damage is substantial, it is NOT a write off as, and you have guessed it: 

It has to be stated upfront, that neither of them are "authorities" on Russian submarine fleet, with H.I. Sutton being altogether a shady "expert" primarily about browsing Russian open source media, while Amick simply lacks basic engineering knowledge with his NCO level service on subs and community college level of education. But here are two points which are crucial in all this:

1. Neither Sutton nor Amick will be allowed anywhere near defectation (or damage assessment) commission of Russian Navy, which will be the only authority which will make assessment and propose the further course of actions. Judging by the announcements of Russian MoD, the sub will be restored. In other words--they have neither qualifications, nor access. But that brings us to the other issue...

2. Most what all kinds of Western "experts" continue to BS about is this "successful" salvo by Storm Shadows (Scalp) cruise missiles. But here is the issue, Russian MoD merely pointed out that among MANY missiles, not just Storm Shadows, which attacked several positions in and around Sevastopol 7 out of 10 namely Storm Shadows have been shot down. But here is the thing which none of the "experts" want to note--the salvo was much more numerous and involved Ukie made missiles married to boosters of S-200 AD complex missiles. 

And that brings us to the point: Storm Shadow's "payload" is 450 kilograms of explosives. This is nearly half-a-ton. Let me demonstrate what a single half-a-ton explosion does to a ship. 

This is HMAS Torrens getting acquainted with 290 kilograms (1.5 times smaller payload than that of a single Storm Shadow) of explosives, granted blown under the keel, of MK-48 Torpedo. And here is the issue--Rostov-on-Don damage IS NOT consistent with Storm Shadow but is clearly a result of surface explosions of a much smaller charge.
 
And that means only ONE thing--those have been most likely much faster supersonic, but also much lighter, cottage industry missiles by 404. Moreover, even a first year enlisted moron would see the lack of deformation of submarine's hull which is the first indication of a limited explosive impact, which was primarily limited to... drum roll--light hull of a submarine, because ALL Russian SSKs of pr. 877 and 636, same as second and third generation of Russian nuclear subs have a TWO hull design--light (outside-лёгкий) and hard (жёсткий) hull, where all systems are. But, of course, neither Sutton nor Amick, who have zero knowledge and experience, unlike me, with Soviet/Russian SSKs can recognize the damage to the LIGHT hull which took the brunt of explosion, which, BTW, almost fully intact sail testifies to.  

Not to be overly offensive to these so called "experts", here is Yegorov crawling precisely in the межкорпусное пространство (the space between two hulls) of the SSBN pr. 667 BDRM (Delta IV) Tula which explains to you what it is. 

Russian Navy went for one and a half or singe hull designs only recently. But, of course, these "experts" have a very weak "expertise" on the issues of weapons systems and their impact, as well--cannot recognize that, while the damage looks dramatic for a layperson, it is the damage primarily to the OUTER hull which is highly repairable. And yes, God forbids those "experts" to ever experience a hit by a half-ton explosive charge of anti-shipping 3M54 Kalibr into the hull of a ship the size of a frigate.

Monday, September 18, 2023

Couldn't Let This Slide.

I love Roger, while not agreeing with him on many things. I also understand that Dave's daughter in law is... Ukrainian (what are the fvcking odds), and the only good thing Dave ever did was play guitar. Some of it--pure genius.  

That is why Roger, being a man of class (Roger's slippers testify to it), didn't do Comfortably Numb in classic Pink Floyd's version during his recent tour, leaving Dave's solos alone--a work of pure genius--to Dave.

BTW, fucking Firefox has issues playing UTube videos.