Finally! The Truth ...

 ... is revealed and we can accept reality))

Putin is defeated: Russia has already lost the Ukraine war, no matter who gets what territory.

I like hedging though, LOL. 

Summary and Key Points: Whenever the fighting stops, Russia will still be sitting on a slice of Ukrainian territory, and many observers will read that as a win for the Kremlin. It is not. -Measured by the things that actually make a country powerful — its people, its economy, its credibility, its alliances, its independence — Putin has left Russia worse off than the day he invaded.

I can feel Kazianis' pain. It is sore, it hurts in the butt, so this loser continues to publish alternative reality descriptions. I spoke today with Brandon Weichert (also with The National Interest pedigree), our conversation will be available soon. Brandon, who gets around quite a bit and takes part in all kinds of panels, including at military gatherings, told me today that there is a large segment of the US military which are spoiling ... to fight Russia. That tells you a lot about professional level of those people who have no a faintest idea about what real war is. Their tours in Iraq or Afghanistan are irrelevant in any operational-strategic sense and most of those military people are driven by professional jealousy, envy and sense of inferiority. You can convince yourself about being the best only so much, before you launch yourself into late McCain, present Kelly's "universe". 

Speaking of which. This is how VSU treats its personnel who refuse to pay their officers.

Yes, corruption in what's left of VSU is astonishing, those who do not want to go into meat storm and die from Russian fires are shot in the back. So, these guys are at least alive, for now. 

In related news, Vladimir Putin celebrates the International Children's Day in Kremlin, celebrating and awarding a highest Order of Mother Heroine for mothers with many children.

Including an amazing French family with 10 children. Yes, Russia opens her arms for European brethren who share traditional, normal human values which sustained civilization for millennia. Putin had another much more somber meeting, that one was a discussion of fate of 404 behind closed doors. 

It Has Been A Long Time ...

 ... since I mentioned this cretin Harry Kazianis who is nothing more than credentialed fraud with no professional anchor in anything other than BS. 

The boy continues to cope by spreading BS, with no grasp of how mobilization works in Russia and what math is.

"Russia now has a military manpower problem Putin just can't solve." That's what a senior NATO offical told me last week when I plotted out this article. And he is correct. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia is losing soldiers on the battlefield faster than it can sign up new ones to replace them. This is the single most important development in the manpower story of the war, and it represents a genuine reversal of the arithmetic that sustained Russian operations for the first three years of the fighting. According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, for four consecutive months from December 2025 through March 2026, the arrivals-to-departures balance has remained firmly negative, with Russian losses exceeding the number of soldiers Moscow actually managed to mobilize.

Oh, we know what shifted--NATO lost, US sustained humiliating defeat in Iran (as was predicted) and now massive campaign of coping, including through inventing absolute BS has begun. Truth is, Kazianis wouldn't understand the first thing about war, because Pentagon doesn't understand it, so some media whore with no real education and expertise certainly wouldn't get it. Math, real math which is in foundation of operational and strategic planning and modelling, and combat control, is not taught in political pseudo-science. I omit here physics and serious engineering (especially as system integrations and their use is concerned) and the whole notion that some guy with "degree" in international relations and polisci can have any ideas about modern war without long years at officer billets is down right risible. 

And even that is no guarantee of anything, judging by the laughable generals and admirals from the US military who avail their "views" to members of Congress and US legacy media. With the exception, of course, of CNO Admiral Daryl Caudle who without mincing words delivered a startling truth about Strait of Hormuz. It looks very bad for the US. In fact, the optics is so bad--reality, actually is even worse--that mediawhores are in force trying to cover up a disaster by means of telling fairy tales ... about Russia, of course. Obviously, explaining to Kazianis what that is:

And why late Colonel Dupuy was mistaken in basing his calculations on lethality (not to speak of tactical-operational impact of modern weapons and C4ISR) of modern war purely on historic data, without critical factors shaping the framework:

Lethality removed from the tactical-operational framework of modern war says very little (with the exception of generic knowledge of artillery still dominating the battlefield) about effects produced. That is why US military convulses between necessity for artillery shells production and learning to its astonishment about ineffectiveness of its weapons' arsenal. E.g. US views on air defense have no connection to reality and the "lessons", especially as provided by 404, will not be learned. So ... Russia runs out of men. What else is left? Ah yes, Putin is about to be overthrown by hungry and poor Russian people and he already slipped on the stairs, fell and soiled himself--this is a fine tradition of many military "experts" in the West, who cannot resign themselves to the fact that the shift, indeed, did occur and it is not the one Kazianis or Brussels like. 

Schumpeter saw it very early: 

All those who are unemployed or unsatisfactorily employed or unemployable drift into the vocations in which standards are least definite or in which aptitudes and acquirements of a different order count. They swell the host of intellectuals in the strict sense of the term whose numbers hence increase disproportionately. 

That's Kazianis and his ilk of butthurt redundant class selling BS. In related news--yep, they wouldn't understand this math:

No tool kit. 

Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant-II, Or China The Omnipotent.

Two things coincided today after I and Arctic Fox had short exchange on the issue of US Navy and WestPac and I think it is a good idea to give this issue a separate post and discussion. First, what attracted attention was this piece in Russia's Vzglyad with a symptomatic title of Real Combat Capabilities of China's Navy Are Obviously Exaggerated (in Russian). The piece is written by a Russian naval architect Alexander Shishkin and, despite some debatable claims, raises some very important questions about what I was writing for years now and what my second book is about—that is the REAL balance of (military) power. Enough to quote here Shishkin's conclusion which I support completely.

Проблема № 1: подводные силы

В ходе строительства Большого флота у Китая не все идет гладко. Китайцы строят его, широко применяя испытанный метод «клонирования» (реверс-инжиниринга). Однако для этого необходимы исходные образцы, которые в ряде случаев невозможно получить ни за какие деньги и никакой хитростью. Прежде всего сказанное относится к технологиям, связанным с атомными подводными силами. По данным военно-морской разведки США (ONI), современные атомные лодки ВМС НОАК (пр. 094 и 093) по уровню шумности сильно уступают даже советским аналогам третьего поколения (пр. 667БДР и 671РТМК), в то время как у нас уже серийно строятся корабли четвертого поколения (до которых китайцам как до Луны) и корректируется аванпроект ПЛА пятого поколения.

Все объясняется просто: начав проектирование первой отечественной атомной лодки еще в 1952 году, мы уже не останавливались, несмотря ни на какие невзгоды, включая обрушение судпрома и обвальное сокращение ВМФ в «смутные времена». Да, корабли почти не строились, но в боровшихся за выживание НИИ и КБ, зачастую на чистом энтузиазме, продолжались работы над усовершенствованием паропроизводящих установок ядерных реакторов, паровых турбин и редукторов (ГТЗА), подшипников, гребных винтов, насосов, вентиляторов, амортизаторов, звукопоглощающих покрытий, гидроакустических комплексов и много чего еще. В результате в муках был рожден «Северодвинск» – возможно, лучшая многоцелевая атомная лодка в мире и родоначальница серии себе подобных, а китайцы остались далеко позади. Ходят слухи о готовящемся прорыве, начале крупносерийного строительства китайских атомных подводных сил. Бесспорно, производственные и финансовые возможности для этого есть, но как обстоят дела с техническими решениями? В научно-технический гений ученых и конструкторов КНР, способный обеспечить паритет по ТТХ с Россией и США, верится с трудом – иначе китайские товарищи не закупали бы и не копировали образцы иностранного вооружения и военной техники. Возможно, прорыв действительно произойдет, но уж точно не завтра, а когда в Китае появится Наука с большой буквы, на что уйдет не один десяток лет. А пока атомная подводная армада, представителей которой противник будет обнаруживать значительно раньше, нежели они его, будет играть роль бумажного тигра, пригодного разве что для парадов

Translation: Problem #1: submarine forces. Not everything is going according to plan in Chinese building of a Big Fleet. Chinese build this fleet using widely proven method of cloning (reverse-engineering). For this method, however, one needs source specimens, which are often impossible to obtain no matter how huge the sums of money or ruses are involved. This is especially true for nuclear-powered submarine technologies and forces.  In accordance to US Naval Intelligence, PLAN's modern SSNs of types 093 and 094 in terms of quieting are lagging substantially even behind Soviet third generation subs such as SSGN pr. 671 RTM(K) (NATO: Victor III) and SSBN of pr. 667 BDR (Delta-III), all this is while Russia builds series of 4^th generation nuclear subs, with China being nowhere near (in text: as far as the walk to the Moon) these technologies, with Russia already working on a technical project of the 5^th generation SSN.

The explanation to this situation is simple: We (Russia) started working on the first SSN in 1952 and since then never stopped, even despite all calamities, including the collapse of shipbuilding industry and precipitous reduction of the Navy during 1990s (Dark Times).  Yes, few ships were being built in those times, but often through sheer enthusiasm, the work on improvement of steam generators, nuclear reactors, steam turbines, gear systems, bearings, screws, pumps, fans, acoustic coatings, sonars and many other systems continued in many institutes and design bureaus. As a result, through hard labor, the Severodvinsk-class of SSGNs has been born—possibly the best nuclear submarine in the world today. Chinese were left far behind. The rumors of a coming breakthrough in a large series construction of Chinese submarine forces have been circulating for a while. Undeniably, manufacturing and financial capabilities are in place for this, but what about technological solutions? It is difficult to believe in scientific-technological genius of Chinese scientists and designers, which will be able to achieve tactical-technical parity with Russia and the US—otherwise Chinese comrades wouldn't be buying and cloning samples of foreign military technology. May be the breakthrough will happen eventually but assuredly not tomorrow but only when the Science with the capital S will appear in China and that will take not one decade. Meanwhile, PLAN's submarine armada which will be detected much earlier than it will detect the enemy, will continue to play the role of the paper tiger good only for parades.

There are many other valid points, including the issue of operational experience, which Shishkin makes in his rather very symptomatic piece and here is the REAL issue: yes, China is an economic giant with some of her achievements inspiring nothing but admiration. But being a military superpower is a very special kind of superpowerdom and especially within naval affairs where one faces, depending on geopolitical scenarios, such a massive naval superpower as the United States. Yes, US Navy has many problems, no larger ones than the issue of a doctrine and force structure, but as I stated not for once—the US Navy's crown jewel of its submarine forces is so impressive and is so much more advanced, for a foreseeable future, than its PLAN's counterpart, that it allows to speak of PLAN mostly in terms of A2/AD (much of which is dependent on Russian technologies). 

Impressive On The Surface

Yes, PLAN is able to build a tonnage equal to that to US Navy's, especially with PLAN investing hugely in its DDG and FFG surface force but HOW good is this surface force—nobody knows for sure. Yet there are reasons to suspect that Chinese weapon systems, which are knock-offs of Russian and Western technology, deployed on those ships do not have any record of combat use whatsoever and, actually, are not that good. Once all those factors are considered, I, personally, don't see (God forbids, of course, such a scenario ever becoming a reality) any way of how PLAN can possibly push US Navy (I omit here legal and moral issues) out of Western Pacific. This is an interesting issue to ponder, of course.

The second thing which coincided was, oh goody, Harry Kazianis, whose writing I described as alarmist 6 months ago precisely on the issue discussed above, yesterday went even further in envisioning a Russian-American Alliance against China. No doubt, China is a huge global player today but Kazianis goes a little bit overboard here, me thinks.

Next, there is the unfavorable balance of military arms that, as the years go on, will not favor Moscow. As China continues to receive some of Russia’s most advanced pieces of military equipment, like the S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jet, China will most likely pilfer and reproduce such technology as it has done in the past—only to include it in indigenous weapons systems or sell it for far cheaper prices, competing directly against Russia in the lucrative arms sales market. Even more dangerous is that Russia’s own military technology could be used against it if a clash between the Russians and Chinese ever occurred—and history shows that is not out of the question.

I am sure Russia is very grateful to Mr. Kazianis for his sincere concern for Russia's competitiveness against China on the international weapons' markets but I am sure those in the know would still prefer a "Real McCoy" whenever deciding to buy big items such as state-of-the-art air defense systems, cutting edge fighter aircraft or submarines. It is simply the matter of quality and reputation. Russia's quality and reputation in this field are well-established. Moreover, I don't see how Russia and the US, after what have happened in the last 10 (in reality 25) years, can possibly be allied in any meaningful sense. For now avoiding a war could be a huge achievement in itself. Could China possibly, in the future, become a threat to Russia? Absolutely, and Russians know this but this does not necessarily involve the US. In the end, Russia finally has her civilizational project—Putin at Valdai was explicit about it. And, as is being discussed above and in a number of my posts in this blog, and in my new (hope to finish earlier next year) book on Balance of Power, China, for all her massive achievements is not yet true military superpower and it has nothing to do with the ability to project force, after all—Russia cannot do it globally too. Yet, few would doubt that Russia is a military superpower. 

So, Alliance between Russia and US, the thing of my naïve dreams in 1990s and early 2000s, the alliance which is predetermined historically and geographically, yet…here we are. The world as we know it is collapsing, the new, truly multi-polar world is emerging. In this world new balance of power will be very intricate and it will take some time and effort in allowing this new world order to settle without unleashing Armageddon—this is the most important foundation on which any kind of trust between US and Russia could be rebuilt. About alliances--later. 

Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant.

Remember a couple of years ago I posted this thing?

Run To The Hills, The US Military Is Doomed. No, Wait...

Well, nobody anymore denies a set of very real force structure, readiness, technological and operational problems and challenges US military faces. After all--a lot has happened in the last two years, not least strategically but I still stand by my assertion:

1. US Armed Forces still remain the most potent force in the world, especially US Navy. 

2. American soldiers and sailors are among the best in the world. 

I periodically browse The National Interest to mostly get a chuckle or two and, if I am lucky, to catch some redeeming (for TNI) and competent thoughts of Lt.Colonel Daniel Davies. Today I stumbled upon  Harry Kazianis' a pearl of a strategic thought titled in a good tabloid tradition of TNI:

Exposed: Why China Would Lose a War against America

I don't know what American military "experts" mean when they talk about "WAR" but instead of writing some long text Kazianis could have limited himself to a two very simple points:

1. Non-nuclear war (controlled escalation to a threshold)  between China and US in the air has 50-50 percent chances of either side "winning" in China's vicinity.

2. The same, but naval confrontation... and here, with all my deep respect to Chinese culture and strides in modernization, PLAN is simply NOT a competitor to US Navy beyond the First Island Chain and the issue has NOTHING to do with a number of DDGs or CBGs. The issue is plain and simple THIS:

To be a real contender--one MUST have a world-class nuclear attack submarine component and here the US Navy holds an overwhelming superiority over anything PLAN has both quantitatively and, most importantly, qualitatively in its nuclear power sub inventory. Yes, PLAN did declare recently on a number of occasions that its newest SSNs in terms of quieting begin to catch up to first versions of Project 971 Akula and Los-Angles-class SSNs. But quieting, while being very important, is just one of many things which are required for a nuclear sub to be a true killer weapon. Once fleet gets away from A2/AD zones controlled by modern SSKs which guarantee against penetration of something like Virginia-class SSNs, such fleet will require a top-notch SSN, SSGN escort--PLAN doesn't have this. Plain and simple. There are also some very serious issues with Chinese ASW. 

Yes, China may (MAY) hold an advantage deep within First Island Chain over US Navy and she may even increase this advantage but PLAN has no realistic way of surviving US Navy's nuclear subs in any remote or blue water zone. But Russia is not selling her Project 885 Severodvinsk nor is sharing with whatever work is being done on what is known today as Husky unified SS(G)N--SSBN platform. Here, China will have to develop a true competitive technology on her own. Doing so in nuclear power submarines field is immensely difficult, expensive and it takes time. And while amateurs point their sights towards US Navy's visually impressive CVNs, currently what dooms PLAN and completely prevents it from any serious challenge to US Navy in a remote ocean zone is underwater and is not heard or seen.  

On the other hand, any land combined arms war against China in her vicinity will see US Army decimated and ultimately ground to a halt or defeated in a conventional conflict, no matter what advantages US has. No matter if a Chinese Army is "unprofessional" as Kazianis states, since Chinese will be fighting for their motherland, which US military "professionals" never did in their life and that changes a lot. So, the only thing which comes from this is a need to really find some kind of peaceful arrangement between big kids on the block. No matter how good is US Navy, and it is, despite its problems, a magnificent force, the United States is not in a position anymore to dictate anything to anybody as it was the case 20 years ago. This time is simply gone.