It Has Been A Long Time ...

 ... since I mentioned this cretin Harry Kazianis who is nothing more than credentialed fraud with no professional anchor in anything other than BS. 

The boy continues to cope by spreading BS, with no grasp of how mobilization works in Russia and what math is.

"Russia now has a military manpower problem Putin just can't solve." That's what a senior NATO offical told me last week when I plotted out this article. And he is correct. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia is losing soldiers on the battlefield faster than it can sign up new ones to replace them. This is the single most important development in the manpower story of the war, and it represents a genuine reversal of the arithmetic that sustained Russian operations for the first three years of the fighting. According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, for four consecutive months from December 2025 through March 2026, the arrivals-to-departures balance has remained firmly negative, with Russian losses exceeding the number of soldiers Moscow actually managed to mobilize.

Oh, we know what shifted--NATO lost, US sustained humiliating defeat in Iran (as was predicted) and now massive campaign of coping, including through inventing absolute BS has begun. Truth is, Kazianis wouldn't understand the first thing about war, because Pentagon doesn't understand it, so some media whore with no real education and expertise certainly wouldn't get it. Math, real math which is in foundation of operational and strategic planning and modelling, and combat control, is not taught in political pseudo-science. I omit here physics and serious engineering (especially as system integrations and their use is concerned) and the whole notion that some guy with "degree" in international relations and polysci can have any ideas about modern war without long years at officer billets is down right risible. 

And even that is no guarantee of anything, judging by the laughable generals and admirals from the US military who avail their "views" to members of Congress and US legacy media. With the exception, of course, of CNO Admiral Daryl Caudle who without mincing words delivered a startling truth about Strait of Hormuz. It looks very bad for the US. In fact, the optics is so bad--reality, actually is even worse--that mediawhores are in force trying to cover up a disaster by means of telling fairy tales ... about Russia, of course. Obviously, explaining to Kazianis what that is:

And why late Colonel Dupuy was mistaken in basing his calculations on lethality (not to speak of tactical-operational impact of modern weapons and C4ISR) of modern war purely on historic data, without critical factors shaping the framework:

Lethality removed from the tactical-operational framework of modern war says very little (with the exception of generic knowledge of artillery still dominating the battlefield) about effects produced. That is why US military convulses between necessity for artillery shells production and learning to its astonishment about ineffectiveness of its weapons' arsenal. E.g. US views on air defense have no connection to reality and the "lessons", especially as provided by 404, will not be learned. So ... Russia runs out of men. What else is left? Ah yes, Putin is about to be overthrown by hungry and poor Russian people and he already slipped on the stairs, fell and soiled himself--this is a fine tradition of many military "experts" in the West, who cannot resigned themselves to the fact that the shift, indeed, did occur and it is not the one Kazianis or Brussels like. 

Schumpeter saw it very early: 

All those who are unemployed or unsatisfactorily employed or unemployable drift into the vocations in which standards are least definite or in which aptitudes and acquirements of a different order count. They swell the host of intellectuals in the strict sense of the term whose numbers hence increase disproportionately. 

That's Kazianis and his ilk of butthurt redundant class selling BS. In related news--yep, they wouldn't understand this math:

No tool kit.