No Shit! Pardon My French.

Somebody is "asking taboo questions"? Taboo? This must have been the FIRST question.  

Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

At this stage I am beginning to get a taboo idea. I still may turn out to be wrong, of course. But far from counting economic (economy was going to hell anyway) and political impact, one has to deal with verifiable data and that was in a very short supply. How many people are actually infected? We do not know this number, not at all. What is the mortality rate then, a real one? 

“Is it overkill?” he frequently asks himself. He is not certain. But if he weren’t quarantined, he acknowledged that he might drop in on his elderly parents, who are at higher risk of suffering the effects of the coronavirus. “We could look back at this time in four months and say, ‘We did the right thing’ — or we could say ‘That was silly,’” he said in an interview. Then he added one more likely scenario: “Or we might never know.”

Yes, we might never know. Israeli doctors are now speaking out. It is in Russian, but Google Translate is two clicks away.  

ТЕЛЬ-АВИВ, 17 мар - РИА Новости. Пандемия коронавируса проходит гораздо легче, чем предполагалось, при этом карантинные меры позволяют снизить нагрузку на систему здравоохранения, заявили ведущие израильские медики в интервью РИА Новости.

Translation:  Coronavirus pandemic progresses much easier, than was originally thought, quarantine measures allow to relieve load on healthcare system, leading Israeli medics stated in the interview to Ria. 

Read the whole thing, it will change your perceptions. Say what you will about Israel, by their medics and bio-research are top of the line, possibly top three in the world.  Israelis insist that actual mortality rate is much lower than it was reported from China. Yes, quarantine is good but look at the numbers again. It also becomes increasingly clear, even on the anecdotal level, that main demographics affected are really old people with a host of medical issues. Those people also have full right for a fighting chance for their life, same as people with deadly deceases such as cancer. But:

Up to 650 000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), the World Health Organization and global health partners.

How do you think I am supposed to think when the stream on YouTube I linked to started on 29 January 2020. We are almost 50 days into this pandemic. At 17:00 PST, this day of March 18, we are at 219,000 (most likely many times more in reality) cases with 8,956 deaths, with China, Italy, Iran and Spain being main contributors to this sad count, with China being by far (36% of all deaths) the largest contributor to this statistics. Make your own conclusions or find a statement to Fox few days ago (easy to do) by US Surgeon General in which he states, and I almost quote:"By the end of this pandemic (he was talking about the United States) we will have fewer Covis-19 infected people than the number of people who die every year from seasonal flu." But what does he really know, right? He is govmint and only a Surgeon General. What a loser, right? Currently, the United States is at 9,261 cases with 150 deaths and it seems that overwhelming majority of those are old and very chronically sick people. I have a taboo idea which I may share with, but it has to wait, I need to see more data.   

Milk.

No, not Harvey Milk dude known for his fight for the "rights" of gays, but milk, as in skim, 1%, 2%. Our local QFC (Kroeger) chain grocery store was without milk (not counting those ungodly varieties of soy and organic pseudo milk) for two days. I get it--panic rush on durable products such as rice, beans, canned food is to be expected. Understandable, those are staples which are getting swept from the shelves in times of panic. After all, Russians already have an anecdote such as: Russia just registered its first death from coronovirus. The dude was killed in his garage when the shelf with 400 kilograms of rice, beans, buckwheat and canned food collapsed on him. But milk, a perishable product which cannot be used much longer beyond its expiration date, yet, evidently some bunch of fvcking morons simply loaded on it. My question, how are they going to use this milk once it goes bad? 

This is the price we all pay for covid-19 hysteria amplified by media, those very same media which gave us Russiagate, Ukrainegate, which "predicted" landslide for HRC in 2016 and which continue even today. Especially European media whores who already came up with this:

When all else fails, blame Russia. That seems to be the EU approach to deflecting blame from its response to the coronavirus pandemic, no doubt because it has worked so well for Democrats in the US or London in the Skripal affair.As Brussels finally got around to locking down the EU borders on Tuesday, London’s Financial Times ran a ‘bombshell’ story blaming “Russian pro-Kremlin media” for a “significant disinformation campaign” to stoke “confusion, panic and fear” in the West and “aggravate the coronavirus pandemic crisis.” This is based on a nine-page report by the strategic communications division of the European External Action Service, the EU’s de facto foreign ministry.

As I speak non-stop about it, Europe is run by incompetent imbeciles heavy on Euro-left pseudo political theory and very light on actual statecraft. In this case, one can only extend condolences to Europeans, those who didn't lose their head yet, with the fact of them being run by cretins. It is also rather remarkable that it is China which is helping this "economically advanced" EU with covid-19 testing kits, masks and other supplies. Russia helped China, too. So, the question is then this: who are, exactly, those second or third world nations? I think we have the answer, EU qualifies quite well, because its response to covid-19 is nothing short of a disaster, with EU bureaucrats having no fvcking idea on what to do and how to do anything sensible in terms of facing down a health crisis. Now about crisis--so far the death percentage hovers just above 4% (4.001 to be precise) and there is another resource you all may check the data--Worldometers. In general, there are plenty resources now giving current spread, so to speak, which helps to see larger picture. 

Russia and China called on the US to lift sanctions on Iran:

We urge the US to immediately lift unilateral sanctions on Iran. Continued sanctions are against humanitarianism and hamper Iran's epidemic response and delivery of humanitarian aid," spokesman Geng Shuang said. Russia's Foreign Ministry made a similar announcement, calling the sanctions "anti-human". "Illegal unilateral US sanctions, imposed since May 2018 as part of the 'maximum pressure' campaign, are a powerful obstacle to the effective fight against the infection," Russia's foreign ministry said. 

So, you also have pretty good idea on who are real humanitarians in this world. Don't expect the United States doing anything in this regard. Sanctions are the only instrument the United States has to do anything about emerging new geopolitical reality. The more it uses this instrument, the faster the change is coming. It is a classic Zugzwang. Having said all this, I, however, still remain on the sidelines (or on the fence) in passing any judgement on covid-19 panic, not until I have a verifiable data on demographics and, what is even more interesting for me--I, being busy (lazy, actually) will wait for someone to do this--comparison of data on covid-19 and seasonal flu. The only thing to do here is to keep those medical professionals and volunteers on the front lines of fight against this pandemic in out thoughts (and prayers for people of faith).    

UPDATE: Per milk--evidently you can freeze it but, unlike ice-cream, one has to wonder what will be its taste after that. This, however, in no way takes responsibility off the shoulders of those hoarders. 

A Short Note On Covid-19.

I encountered this issue yesterday, people asked me why I am not admitting that this is pandemic. Don't misinterpret me, I definitely trust WHO to know way better than mere mortal me, but here is my reasoning on being cautious:

If the same WHO wouldn't have stated initially (you can easily find that statement) that very many cases are asymptomatic and people may never, actually, know that they had been infected by Covid-19, or whatever the hell it is called, I would absolutely believed every single piece of information they issue. I, however, don't take it all uncritically because I know that the actual number of infected is considerably higher than registered cases so far (see the real time picture in the video above). Because of this and knowing how "reliable" statistics is, my position is as simple as a toilet--I am waiting for the full and processed information with high degree of reliability to be eventually made public and from there making any kinds of conclusions. This my position in NO WAY is indicative of my criticism of measures being taken to prevent the spread of the virus, far from it--I support such measures, but here is the deal: if to take current (right this moment) data, say for Germany with its 8,750 cases and 20 deaths, one may conclude that 20/8750 x 100=0.22% of deaths in Germany's case is not a reason for alarm, since it is definitely no higher than rates of deaths from seasonal flu. But let me give you even better example, from yesterday: 

Tragic consequences: 21-year-old Spanish football coach dies of coronavirus 

Scary, eh? Well, until you get to the subject matter and read this:

A 21-year-old Spanish football coach, Francisco Garcia, who suffered from leukemia, has died having tested positive for coronavirus.

Seriously? He had a leukemia, which is a blood cancer and which, as any cancer, kills immune system first. So, he died from coronavirus, right? You decide. But here is even more serious consideration. Everyone now screams: ahhh, economy is crumbling because of coronavirus. Well, the real collapse started, for those who observed closely, way before anything was known about coronavirus and panic hit the fan. "Markets" were shaky already in November-December last year when it became clear to anyone with IQ above room temperature that it was the matter of when, not if. And by "when" I mean not years, but weeks, couple of months at most. Recall this among many other opinions I posted. So, as is the case with most things I do--I wait for a reliable data to appear. So, is it coronavirus which kills global "economy"? No, it is systemic acute crisis of liberalism which kills it, coronavirus is merely one of the factors among too many other ones. It is just the proverbial straw which broke camel's back. After all, this panic with coronavirus somehow obscured huge issues of oil war, or some military-political developments which are in the foundation. The current "system" is unsustainable, it was for decades now accelerating towards own demise. 

France may nationalize major companies amid market meltdown, finance minister says 

This is exactly what Russia did starting from 2008 thus economically saving herself. I am, however, not sure about France. I am generally not sure about West, it financialized itself into oblivion and who knows what would it take to survive. So, my suggestion--wait for reliable data before jumping to conclusions, on anything. This is what I do most of the time and that served me fairly well, but, of course, it is just the matter of preferences. As for "stock market", it will continue to fall and let it do so--it is not an "economy". 

UPDATE: this is 09:35 same date PST. We have currently: 7,537 deaths out of "recorded" 199,122 cases globally. This is 3.94% mortality rate. But the main question remains unanswered: HOW MANY people with virus are not in this statistics? I am going out on a limb here and propose hundreds of thousands who already went through illness or are in the process and are not counted. Deaths are EASIER to count than infection cases, for obvious reasons. Thus I propose: deaths statistics is much more accurate than the overall count of cases of coronavirus. But this assumption will dramatically drive mortality rate down. Considering the fact that MOST cases pass either asymptomatically or as light cold (or flu)--make your own conclusions. This is 2018:

“I’d like to see more people get vaccinated,” Redfield told the AP at an event in New York. “We lost 80,000 people last year to the flu.”

The Exemplary Entrepreneurs.

Ah, the pursuit of happiness at its best. Free enterprise in all its glory.

As cleaning supplies and hand sanitizer fly off grocery store shelves in a rush of coronavirus panic shopping, two Tennessee men are being ordered to stop hoarding and reselling in-demand products online. Noah Colvin, of Hixson, Tennessee, took a 1,300-mile road trip in early March across Tennessee and Kentucky, racking up thousands of bottles of hand sanitizer to resell online. Meanwhile, his brother Matt stayed at home, waiting for pallets of antibacterial wipes and even more sanitizer to be shipped, according to a New York Times article. The two then sold sanitizer online at a steep markup — $8 to $70 a pop. But Amazon quickly removed their listings amid a larger effort to stop coronavirus-related price gouging. Now, the brothers reportedly have more than 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizer — and two attorneys general who demand they stop buying more.

Evidently, now Attorney Generals of two states got interested in this community-oriented business by these two scumbags and it is all for the better. Good that the names of these two practitioners of free enterprise are well publicized--the country needs to know the names of its "heroes". The so called "price-gouging" or, in other words, primitive speculation always follows some emergency situations. I know, I have been there--"lovely" very late 1980s and early 1990s in Russia became famous for deficit of cigarettes and food. As a result, prices skyrocketed, until, as it was the case with cigarettes, early 1990s the deliveries of Western-made brands, ranging from mysterious Magna (pretty good, actually) to varieties of Pall Mall and venerable Marlborough and Camel flooded Russian market and relived deficit and a horrible state of smokers who were suffering in the absence of cigarettes, literally. That also killed speculation.  

But while at it, and having a clear understanding of these two as two of the major ass-holes populating the field of the crushing demand for toilet paper, hand sanitizers and other products, we should not forget our real "heroes" who reside not in Lexington KY, but in New York, namely at the Wall Street. Talk about speculation. These guys sold the whole damn country to the highest bidders, while having it for a fraction of price, and they did it fully officially and, in fact, even with the sound of deafening applause from all quarters, praising these guys' ability to sell and to make money out of a thin air. They also were encouraged, and while two scumbags were selling hand sanitizers at atrocious prices, Wall Street and its "investors" got $1.5 trillion issued to them to keep their ponzi scheme running for a little bit longer.  That's the scale! That's what I am talking about! And what is most interesting, bar some few exception such as Maddow's operation, no Attorney Generals anywhere in sight. Can this pandemic (is it really?) finally shed the light on the fact that the so called US "economy" is nothing more than a gigantic financial bubble driven by the irrational greed and paranoia, having zero relation to actual economy, which it tries to completely finish off. Even Fed's attempts, even those are met with this:

Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading: “They blew it. The Fed panicked and the market is spooked. The S&P 500 registered all time highs less than a month ago and the Fed has expended all its conventional and unconventional tools. The key takeaway will be that they have truly expended all of their ammunition and this is the action of a central bank that is scared.” Fiscal First. James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets: “The fact is global equities are still getting slammed. It shows markets worried more about infection rates and growth and need to see a large fiscal response. Monetary policy will not have the same potency for financial markets -- it is not enough on its own and there isn’t much ammunition left. The theme has been clearly on display in markets since the Fed’s first rate cut two weeks back. But this is not the end of monetary policy, not by a long shot. Fiscal policy announcements will now be watched more closely and discounted more quickly by financial markets.”

I have an immediate question: what "equities" this McCormick dude is talking about? What is equitable anymore in US economy with the exception of grossly (if not criminally) overpriced real estate, a financial fraud of shale oil and of the virtual paper of derivatives which are mortgaged, then mortgaged again and then again, and again. That's the only thing they know: "large fiscal response". One has to wonder at this point, when will there be any "large response" to America's continuing de-industrialization, collapsing infrastructure, grossly overpriced healthcare system, horrendous educational system and dying out white population. Anyone wants to give "large response" to that? Maybe, when AGs see those "financial markets" for what they are--a main engine of the American decline, financial Sodom and Gomorrah, or, if one wishes, Augean Stables which need to be either cleaned or burned to the ground.  Meanwhile, observe those one-trick ponies from Wall Street trying to figure out what may have finally bit their asses and starting to get a hint (maybe) that all their monetary theories are a pile of whiteboard steaming shit. 

Just Italy.

Humanity at its best and no surprise that it is Italy. Quarantined in their homes in Italy, which is paralyzed with Coronavirus, Italians decided to do what they do best--sing, from their balconies across the streets.  I have a huge smile on my face.

Ah, yes, it is Friday. Just a bit more of Italiano.  And Lovely Viola Valentino from 1980s (she is till lovely). 

Enjoy. 

First Results.

From where it really matters. As was totally expected, Russian national currency Ruble lowered itself somewhat, from ₽67 for $1, to 72, or by about 7%.  But this is not what really matters: yesterday someone started to preach the gospel of upcoming panic in Russia and even lines forming at currency exchange outlets. Well, as first business day after the holiday has shown--no panic and no buying of US Dollar or Euro out. Business as usual (in Russian). This is not to mention, of course, the fact that nobody in Russia really gives a damn about what is happening on Moscow Stock Exchange. Russia is wired differently. This, however, is not without some drawbacks: Russia is seriously dependent on imports of pharmaceutical products (from EU mostly) and this is one of those sectors which may see a growth of consumer prices. This problem is not new and that was true in USSR as well. Steps to address this situation, including developing own pharmaceutical industry, have been undertaken but as it is the case with any large national project--it takes time. I recall early 2000s demonstrations of diabetes patients because of the shortages of insulin and other diabetic care items. Not anymore, Russia produces a number of own insulin types and covers diabetic necessities well. 

In general, modern Russian economy is increasingly flexible and people on the streets of Russia do trust own economy and finances, well, with the exception, of course, of urban office plankton, who due to limited education and intellect, consider themselves all-knowing. But that is expected from this type. So, where are going from here, then? What these few last days are about? I think they are about what is known as tour' de force, commonly known as demonstration of force, by Russia who, as is the case since Putin's 2007 Munich Speech, wanted to remind everyone that present World (Dis)Order lived out its usefulness. Here is how it works:

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin quietly met with Russia's ambassador to the U.S. Friday morning as financial markets plunged – and the 'potential for trade and investment' was on the table. The meeting came Monday morning, when the Dow shed 7 per cent of its value and dropped 1,700 points in early trading. Russia revealed the meeting on its web site Monday, hours before the Treasury Department put out a release. 

Remember Gandhi?   

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

This is exactly what is happening. While I am not pushing here the point that the United States or US Dollar are about to collapse, this opinion cannot be ignored:

“The real problem in the US economy is all the debt. We have so much debt, not just in oil companies but in all sorts of companies and everybody is missing this,” Schiff said. Unlike during the 2008 financial crisis, the US is unlikely to be able to re-inflate the dollar, as it simply doesn’t “have enough bullets in their gun to reflate a larger bubble” and now is bound to “deal with a full aftermath of this coming crisis.” “In 2008 the dollar went up because everybody was buying it. This time, the dollar is going to tank, because everybody is selling it,” Schiff told RT. “And this commodity bear market, including what’s happening in oil, is going to be very short-lived. Because once the dollar starts to collapse, all these prices are going to rise including the price of oil.”

In other words, as Michael Hudson and many others warned--the crisis of 2008 hasn't been resolved, it was painted over. Banks were saved instead of saving US industries and labor. Recall what happened 24 years ago:

But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy? We as central bankers need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs, and price stability. Indeed, the sharp stock market break of 1987 had few negative consequences for the economy.    

Remarkably accurate, Alan Greenspan is not a stupid man. But in 2008, as was the case even earlier--it was real economy which was sold to financial "industry", not the other way around, and we know the story after that. Thus, the current belch of the "market" is not just about Coronavirus, the "Oil War" initiated by Saudis and having their bluff called by Russia, or, for that matter anything else in particular, it is the whole thing--it is a systemic crisis of the global financial oligarchic capitalism which DID escalate asset values and did even more to enrich a relatively small group of fat cats from Wall Street. We all live with the unfolding consequences of this global fraud, driven by petrodollar and perception of the American military might which served as the pillars of this increasingly unstable system. We all can see today how, quoting Greenspan, it not only threatens but already impaired "real economy, its production, jobs, and price stability".  

Methods to overcome this chaos, if someone in the West would decide to overcome it for real, will not be yet another mindless 'shock and awe' spending to avert global recession. These people calling for that, and that is most of Western "financial elite", are morons, since think that pouring gasoline on fire will extinguish it. You cannot expect anything else from them. The measures which really can avoid a complete collapse down the road, even when all current problems with virus and oil will fade away, cannot be and will not be coming from this "elite", they can come only from the State.  And that's what makes those needed measures virtually impossible, at least in the United States, albeit, Trump announced measures to deal with this situation remind me something, something which is on the tip of my tongue, ah, yes, state capitalism, also know as "socialism" (it is not really) among most ignorant parts of population:

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst drop since the global financial crisis after President Donald Trump said he would announce “substantial” economic measures on Tuesday to combat the fallout from the coronavirus. Trump’s economic plan -- which he said could include a payroll tax cut and paid sick leave -- does not have buy-in from Congress yet, though he is dispatching his top aides to start pitching the measures on Capitol Hill. The president dismayed some officials with an announcement during a Monday press briefing that he would unveil a plan in 24 hours, as they had vied for taking the plan to lawmakers first.

Funny how things work out, even if to consider that US Congress may sabotage this plan. As Dmitry Orlov once succinctly and sarcastically observed in a piece symptomatically titled Resurrecting the American Economy: 

But perhaps most importantly, it must be understood that repatriating production to the US and redeveloping the industrial base will not be a profitable venture, at least not initially. At the outset, and for at least the duration of the first Five-Year Plan, it will definitely lose money. Borrowing it is a bad idea; the federal government is already $21 trillion in debt. Instead, this money needs to be confiscated from the top 1% of the population which owns close to 40% of the country’s wealth. Doing so will yield roughly $50 trillion—more than enough to fund this project. This is best done as part of a Cultural Revolution: round up the one-percenters, make them wear dunce caps and march them through the streets while pelting them with fruits and vegetables and heaping verbal abuse on them. Oh, and take away all of their money and sentence them to a lifetime of free public service. These may seem like significant changes, and indeed they would be. But there are reasons to believe that if they are made and Stalinism 2.0 is imposed on the US and followed faithfully, then there is a chance that America can indeed be made great again. And so, good luck and God bless! 

Remember Obama warning in 2009 about people with pitchforks marching on Washington?  We are entering this time and we are pass the point of no return.     

Google Translate Will Help.

I think it is an important piece on coronavirus by Russian medical professionals. I, personally, largely agree with points they make. 

                     Fake of a Global Scale (in Russian).  

There is something fishy about this whole thing. Consider this crucial admission:

This flu season alone has sickened at least 19 million across the U.S. and led to 10,000 deaths and 180,000 hospitalizations.  

Mind you, we are talking about regular flu which I, as an example, had last year and ended up spending three days at home. The statistics is just for regular flu, NOT coronavirus. Yes, today one man (evidently with a serious medical condition) died in our Washington State, others, who contracted it (including in South Korea) improved completely on their own.

The other presumed positive coronavirus test was a woman in her 50s from King County. Health officials said the woman traveled to Daegu, South Korea Feb. 7-23 and returned to Seattle to work Monday before she felt symptoms Tuesday. She reported her symptoms to health officials Wednesday and was tested for the virus Thursday. Her results came back positive Friday.Health officials said she is improving without any complications

At this point one has to ask some serious questions. I have my theory but I will keep it to myself for now.