They Finally Have Shown Bastion's Innards...

And if anyone wonders, no, Onyxes (P-800)s from Russian Bastions have a range way longer than 300 kilometers. Say, ahem, 600+...or 800+...

Or maybe more, wink, wink. I heard Indians drove their Brahmos (a P-800 derivative) way beyond 800 kilometers.

WTF, WTF!!

Thanks to Arioch, who pointed this piece of news out, I am still trying to get my jaw off the floor. There are many instances of Russians being extremely industrious and creative when designing weapons but this one is close to the very top when describing Russian, how to put it politely, unconventional approach to defense. As the Co-Director of Russian-Indian Joint Venture Brahmos Alexander Maksichev told Ria today (in Russian) the plan for turning Brahmos cruise missile, known primarily for its anti-shipping role, into air-to-air missile to specifically shoot down enemy's AWACS aircraft has been adopted. The first reaction, of course, to this is WTF. Brahmos missile is an export version of P-800 Oniks (aka Yakhont) stand-off high supersonic weapon, with some bells and whistles for some specific India's requirements added to it and it is also a foundation for India's hypersonic program. 

Recently, India tested Brahmos  to 800-kilometer range and that may give us some clue on what is going on here. 400 kilometer range air-to-air missiles are nothing new such as Russian KS-172 which is in serial production and is called anti-AWACS missile for a reason. But since Indian SU-30s are designed specifically to carry Brahmos missiles, one can totally see a possibly 600-800 kilometer range M=3.5 missile to be used against AWACS when proper targeting is provided. Notable, on these distances AWACS wouldn't even know what his it. Moreover, a smaller version of such Brahmos doesn't need a rather massive 300 kilogram warhead of its anti-shipping variant which automatically avails an additional volume for fuel. Also, a complex electronics required for control of anti-shipping version of Brahmos, including its very complex flight profile, especially on terminal, should also reduce missile's weight in air-to-air version. Finally, the drag at the heights of few kilometers at which most AWACS operate is radically reduced when compared to a low (sea-skimming) profile for anti-ship versions. 

The question, thus, is next--who, or, rather, what will provide such a targeting. Well, it is 2020, folks, not 1980 and things changed rather dramatically and a variety of means exists today to make such targeting possible especially since most air-to-air missiles are shoot-and-forget systems which need only initial position of target, plus different variants of CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability) exist in advanced militaries. It is also obvious that such a Brahmos will have an active radar seeker with a good range which allows missile to conduct final (terminal) refined search and lock on a target. I'm telling ya, this whole thing is getting out of control, next thing you know--hypersonic missiles with the ranges in thousands kilometers... oh, wait! Wink, wink. It is jungle out there, folks, I'm telling you.   

I Wonder Why.

Nah, not really. The United States today imposed sanctions (a favorite pastime after baseball in the United States) on a number of foreign companies, among which three are Russia's. 

Imposition of Nonproliferation Measures Against Foreign Persons, Including a Ban on U.S. Government Procurement.  

Among them, one company, certainly, stands out. It is NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM), which is a legendary producer of some of the most advanced space systems and...drum roll, drum rolling, still rolling... Soviet/Russian most remarkable anti-shipping missiles such as P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 Shipwreck), P-800 Onyx and, of course, 3M22 Zircon. Of course sanctions themselves are nothing more than an attempt "to do something" because, obviously, they in no way affect such a monster as NPOM and, in fact, point #3 is down right hilarious:

3. No United States Government sales to these foreign persons of any item on the United States Munitions List are permitted, and all sales to these persons of any defense articles, defense services, or design and construction services under the Arms Export Control Act are terminated. 

This reminds me of an old Russian saying that one, to spite others, goes out in winter storm and makes sure his ears get frostbitten. That surely shows them, right? I am sure NPOM just sleeps and dreams of American "munition item" to be sold to them to accelerate NPOM's development of supersonic and hyper-sonic cruise missiles. Oh, wait, the United States doesn't have any. So, never mind. I think there are many people in US Military-Industrial Complex and Intelligence structures who would love to learn what Russians are doing with their dramatically superior cruise missile programs. The question which must be asked here is this: why now? Let us try to answer it. 

No, the answer is not in the fact that alleged Russian stooge Donald Trump still fights the remnants of Obama-Clinton operatives within Department of State who do their utmost to sabotage Russian-American relations. This is not the case at all. First, DJT is no Russia's fan and, in fact, he is one of the most anti-Russian presidents in history. Nor, even if that wouldn't have been the case, anything would change because the United States simply CAN NOT behave otherwise for a number of internal reasons. But, but...what's coming soon up in DJT's President's International Schedule, ah, here it is: 

Washington (AFP) - President Donald Trump will visit India, with stops in the capital New Delhi and the western state of Gujarat, from February 24-25, the White House announced Monday.  

Hm, but how this visit is related to  sanctions on NPOM? Very directly. Joint Venture between NPOM and India' DRDO is known to the world as Brahmos. It is the ONLY organization in the world outside Russia which produces the most potent and deadly anti-shipping and land-attack missile based on outstanding design of P-800 Onyx. It is a very-long range (800 kilometers) Mach=3 missile, which also is getting ready to go not only up to Mach=5, but full hyper-sonic by the year 2025 and, what is most interesting, this missile is getting ready for EXPORT (In Russian)! Now you can understand this clause in this sanctions declaration:

Scientific Production Association Mashinostroyeniya (NPOM)(Russia) and any successor, sub-unit, or subsidiary thereof;  

It is not about proliferation, it never was--it is an implicit admission of inability to compete with much better weapons Russia produces, especially in the nation (India) which was a recipient of this technology for decades and not only is expecting the start of the deliveries of S-400 AD complex soon, for which India payed $5 billion, but also has Brahmos missile as a mainstay of India's Navy. Now imagine the effect of even basic version of Brahmos going on sale for foreign parties. What if Mach=5 version goes on sale? I am not talking about full hyper-sonic variants, which, for now will remain only in Russia and India, once Brahmos JV finishes its development. This is the MAIN reason why NPOM ended up in this US Department of State list. 

As I say non-stop, ad nauseam--emergence of hyper-sonic long range anti-shipping missiles wrecks havoc with American naval strategy. It overthrows (well, it sort of did already) all traditional views and thinking modalities about modern war. At the center of it are those damn Russkies and their hi-tech corporations, such as NPOM, which produce the advanced military technology which changes global geopolitical landscape. It also changed geoeconomic one, once one considers that the United States increasingly is losing competitiveness to Russia in military technology. As one Russian (former naval officer) political observer noted--yes, Virginia-class SSNs are good submarines, yes, they are "fourth" generation, but their problem is that they carry obsolete weapons. Indeed, how should US Navy's excellent subs impress an enemy when the only things they carry are obsolete TLAMs and venerable subsonic AGM-84 Harpoons or possibly same subsonic LRASMs--an easy prey for any competent adversary with modern air-defense. But if even 30 years ago the United States could claim some leadership in enablers (from Combat Management Systems, to Sensors, to EW), this leadership is largely gone by now. And here we are--the need to stop competition by any means, including applying crude and always failing pressure--Trump's favorite and the only MO--on the so called American "partners", will only underscore an increased insecurity of the self-proclaimed hegemon, who failed time after time to demonstrate a viability of own doctrinal, strategic and technological views on modern warfare. And yes, do not forget shareholders, how can we forget them--it is for them that the US military-industrial complex exists.  

Yes, in related news:

The Philippines Army has zeroed in on purchase of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to be equipped on its first ever land-based missile system battery following extensive trials and the only thing that remains is finance aspect of the deal. “As far as the Philippines Army is concerned, the consensus on the BrahMos system is a done deal. Now, it’s all about the price negotiations and we hope the deal will be finalised next year,” a source familiar with the negotiations was quoted as saying by Hindustan Times on Monday.

Also in related news:

Washington (AFP) - US President Donald Trump dismissed concerns Wednesday about the Philippines canceling a major military accord, saying the decision would save Americans money. The 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) created a legal framework for the presence of US troops in the Philippines and for organizing joint military exercises. Manila announced its decision Tuesday -- a move the US embassy in the Philippines called a "serious step" -- touching off a six-month countdown to the end of the deal.

Make your own conclusions.

A Very Interesting Moment With Brahmos.

One of those A-ha (no, not the band) moments which clarifies a lot.  As TASS reports (in Russian), Russian co-director of Russian-Indian Joint Venture Brahmos speaking to reporters at Malaysia's LIMA 2019 military exhibition, stated that in the nearest future Brahmos missile (which is a version of Russia's P-800 Onyx missile) after some modifications will reach speeds of M=4.5-5.0, thus making it effectively a hyper-sonic weapon which, as you may have guessed it already, have the most serious operational and strategic ramifications. 

Rumor has it that Russia's 3M22 Zircon capable of M=9 is built on Onyx's design, but it is one thing to have a new missile such as Zircon, totally another--to be able to upgrade own whole "fleet" of missiles from simply deadly (M=3) to uninterceptable. It is also clear that laser weapons will not become a reliable and effective counter-measure for such a threat any time soon, and I mean not soon at all. In the end, issues of attenuation and counter-measures from missiles themselves (from rotating frames, to reflective surfaces, among others) are more than sufficient to keep laser weapons as a niche weapon primarily against slow unprotected targets, such as drones, for a very long time. But my point here is this (I write about it in my new book)--what about proliferation? 

I think proliferation of a hyper-sonic weapons is inevitable, both as a military product and as a geopolitical one. The demand for it is huge because it means safety of own littorals from any kind of forces and threats. There will be many, in addition to already huge number, statements, declarations and documents about A2/AD "bubbles" and how to puncture them, but without radical transformation of the surface fleets away from what they are today and introduction of real weapons systems capable of stopping hyper-sonic missiles tens kilometers away from ships, all this will remain an operational and strategic (and doctrinal) pseudo-intellectual masturbation for all kinds of military "analysts" for a long time. Think for a second what happens even if one "blows" M=9 or even M=5 missile in 2-3 kilometers from own ship? How about, in the best case scenario, a shower of the hyper-sonic fragments still capable to disable the ship? Questions, questions....  

Not Really A Surprise.

Hindustan Times reported this on January 20th : 

800-km range BrahMos missile to be tested this year

As the newspaper reports:

“The Sukhoi has a range of 3,600 km. Arming it with an 800-km range missile will increase its reach tremendously, and even more, considering the option of midair refuelling,” the official said.

The missile’s land and naval variants are already in service. At least two Su-30 squadrons with 20 planes each are likely to be equipped with the air-launch variant BrahMos missile, 500 kg lighter than the land/naval variants.

Two Su-30 jets have been modified by the Nasik division of the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to carry the 2.5-tonne missile that flies at nearly three times the speed of sound.

BrahMos, being a derivative of Russia's P-800 Onyx missile, pretty much demonstrates an inexorable step of anti-shipping missile weapons' development, in which range and speed will continue to increase dramatically. Part of the answer to this development is, of course, in fuels and materials. With hyper-sonic Zircon 3M22 being already in IOC stage and having new, very high impulse, fuels developed for it, it is no surprise that very soon, if not already, we will see high supersonic weapons such as Onyx being capable to cover distances in 1000+ kilometer range and that changes naval warfare completely. Just to give an idea what it means to search and "secure" (in civilian lingo) the area of operations for, say, Carrier Battle Group, we may say that it will require a coverage of the area: 3.14 x 1000^2= 3 140 000 square kilometers, within which the salvo of such missiles can be launched by a single or combination of platforms. This is about the size of India and only if the launch is done by submarine or surface ship.

So, you get the idea. Modern space and over-the-horizon reconnaissance systems can provide real time picture of the surface and targeting pretty reliably. And then, of course, comes the issue of missile-carrying aircraft's ranges and that gets us altogether into the very remote sea and ocean zones. For India and her Armed Forces such a capability comes very handy if one considers that India views Indian Ocean as her internal lake and is not very happy with China being present there.  In related news, as Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov stated two days ago, Russia's Pacific Fleet will get all four modernized Project 949A Oscar-II SSGNs by 2021, with the first modernized one, Omsk, delivered this year, one year earlier than planned. Each of those subs will carry 72 3M14 and 3M54 Kalibr-family missiles and who knows what else--we may only speculate.