They Finally Have Shown Bastion's Innards...

And if anyone wonders, no, Onyxes (P-800)s from Russian Bastions have a range way longer than 300 kilometers. Say, ahem, 600+...or 800+...

Or maybe more, wink, wink. I heard Indians drove their Brahmos (a P-800 derivative) way beyond 800 kilometers.

WTF, WTF!!

Thanks to Arioch, who pointed this piece of news out, I am still trying to get my jaw off the floor. There are many instances of Russians being extremely industrious and creative when designing weapons but this one is close to the very top when describing Russian, how to put it politely, unconventional approach to defense. As the Co-Director of Russian-Indian Joint Venture Brahmos Alexander Maksichev told Ria today (in Russian) the plan for turning Brahmos cruise missile, known primarily for its anti-shipping role, into air-to-air missile to specifically shoot down enemy's AWACS aircraft has been adopted. The first reaction, of course, to this is WTF. Brahmos missile is an export version of P-800 Oniks (aka Yakhont) stand-off high supersonic weapon, with some bells and whistles for some specific India's requirements added to it and it is also a foundation for India's hypersonic program. 

Recently, India tested Brahmos  to 800-kilometer range and that may give us some clue on what is going on here. 400 kilometer range air-to-air missiles are nothing new such as Russian KS-172 which is in serial production and is called anti-AWACS missile for a reason. But since Indian SU-30s are designed specifically to carry Brahmos missiles, one can totally see a possibly 600-800 kilometer range M=3.5 missile to be used against AWACS when proper targeting is provided. Notable, on these distances AWACS wouldn't even know what his it. Moreover, a smaller version of such Brahmos doesn't need a rather massive 300 kilogram warhead of its anti-shipping variant which automatically avails an additional volume for fuel. Also, a complex electronics required for control of anti-shipping version of Brahmos, including its very complex flight profile, especially on terminal, should also reduce missile's weight in air-to-air version. Finally, the drag at the heights of few kilometers at which most AWACS operate is radically reduced when compared to a low (sea-skimming) profile for anti-ship versions. 

The question, thus, is next--who, or, rather, what will provide such a targeting. Well, it is 2020, folks, not 1980 and things changed rather dramatically and a variety of means exists today to make such targeting possible especially since most air-to-air missiles are shoot-and-forget systems which need only initial position of target, plus different variants of CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability) exist in advanced militaries. It is also obvious that such a Brahmos will have an active radar seeker with a good range which allows missile to conduct final (terminal) refined search and lock on a target. I'm telling ya, this whole thing is getting out of control, next thing you know--hypersonic missiles with the ranges in thousands kilometers... oh, wait! Wink, wink. It is jungle out there, folks, I'm telling you.   

I Wonder Why.

Nah, not really. The United States today imposed sanctions (a favorite pastime after baseball in the United States) on a number of foreign companies, among which three are Russia's. 

Imposition of Nonproliferation Measures Against Foreign Persons, Including a Ban on U.S. Government Procurement.  

Among them, one company, certainly, stands out. It is NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM), which is a legendary producer of some of the most advanced space systems and...drum roll, drum rolling, still rolling... Soviet/Russian most remarkable anti-shipping missiles such as P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 Shipwreck), P-800 Onyx and, of course, 3M22 Zircon. Of course sanctions themselves are nothing more than an attempt "to do something" because, obviously, they in no way affect such a monster as NPOM and, in fact, point #3 is down right hilarious:

3. No United States Government sales to these foreign persons of any item on the United States Munitions List are permitted, and all sales to these persons of any defense articles, defense services, or design and construction services under the Arms Export Control Act are terminated. 

This reminds me of an old Russian saying that one, to spite others, goes out in winter storm and makes sure his ears get frostbitten. That surely shows them, right? I am sure NPOM just sleeps and dreams of American "munition item" to be sold to them to accelerate NPOM's development of supersonic and hyper-sonic cruise missiles. Oh, wait, the United States doesn't have any. So, never mind. I think there are many people in US Military-Industrial Complex and Intelligence structures who would love to learn what Russians are doing with their dramatically superior cruise missile programs. The question which must be asked here is this: why now? Let us try to answer it. 

No, the answer is not in the fact that alleged Russian stooge Donald Trump still fights the remnants of Obama-Clinton operatives within Department of State who do their utmost to sabotage Russian-American relations. This is not the case at all. First, DJT is no Russia's fan and, in fact, he is one of the most anti-Russian presidents in history. Nor, even if that wouldn't have been the case, anything would change because the United States simply CAN NOT behave otherwise for a number of internal reasons. But, but...what's coming soon up in DJT's President's International Schedule, ah, here it is: 

Washington (AFP) - President Donald Trump will visit India, with stops in the capital New Delhi and the western state of Gujarat, from February 24-25, the White House announced Monday.  

Hm, but how this visit is related to  sanctions on NPOM? Very directly. Joint Venture between NPOM and India' DRDO is known to the world as Brahmos. It is the ONLY organization in the world outside Russia which produces the most potent and deadly anti-shipping and land-attack missile based on outstanding design of P-800 Onyx. It is a very-long range (800 kilometers) Mach=3 missile, which also is getting ready to go not only up to Mach=5, but full hyper-sonic by the year 2025 and, what is most interesting, this missile is getting ready for EXPORT (In Russian)! Now you can understand this clause in this sanctions declaration:

Scientific Production Association Mashinostroyeniya (NPOM)(Russia) and any successor, sub-unit, or subsidiary thereof;  

It is not about proliferation, it never was--it is an implicit admission of inability to compete with much better weapons Russia produces, especially in the nation (India) which was a recipient of this technology for decades and not only is expecting the start of the deliveries of S-400 AD complex soon, for which India payed $5 billion, but also has Brahmos missile as a mainstay of India's Navy. Now imagine the effect of even basic version of Brahmos going on sale for foreign parties. What if Mach=5 version goes on sale? I am not talking about full hyper-sonic variants, which, for now will remain only in Russia and India, once Brahmos JV finishes its development. This is the MAIN reason why NPOM ended up in this US Department of State list. 

As I say non-stop, ad nauseam--emergence of hyper-sonic long range anti-shipping missiles wrecks havoc with American naval strategy. It overthrows (well, it sort of did already) all traditional views and thinking modalities about modern war. At the center of it are those damn Russkies and their hi-tech corporations, such as NPOM, which produce the advanced military technology which changes global geopolitical landscape. It also changed geoeconomic one, once one considers that the United States increasingly is losing competitiveness to Russia in military technology. As one Russian (former naval officer) political observer noted--yes, Virginia-class SSNs are good submarines, yes, they are "fourth" generation, but their problem is that they carry obsolete weapons. Indeed, how should US Navy's excellent subs impress an enemy when the only things they carry are obsolete TLAMs and venerable subsonic AGM-84 Harpoons or possibly same subsonic LRASMs--an easy prey for any competent adversary with modern air-defense. But if even 30 years ago the United States could claim some leadership in enablers (from Combat Management Systems, to Sensors, to EW), this leadership is largely gone by now. And here we are--the need to stop competition by any means, including applying crude and always failing pressure--Trump's favorite and the only MO--on the so called American "partners", will only underscore an increased insecurity of the self-proclaimed hegemon, who failed time after time to demonstrate a viability of own doctrinal, strategic and technological views on modern warfare. And yes, do not forget shareholders, how can we forget them--it is for them that the US military-industrial complex exists.  

Yes, in related news:

The Philippines Army has zeroed in on purchase of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to be equipped on its first ever land-based missile system battery following extensive trials and the only thing that remains is finance aspect of the deal. “As far as the Philippines Army is concerned, the consensus on the BrahMos system is a done deal. Now, it’s all about the price negotiations and we hope the deal will be finalised next year,” a source familiar with the negotiations was quoted as saying by Hindustan Times on Monday.

Also in related news:

Washington (AFP) - US President Donald Trump dismissed concerns Wednesday about the Philippines canceling a major military accord, saying the decision would save Americans money. The 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) created a legal framework for the presence of US troops in the Philippines and for organizing joint military exercises. Manila announced its decision Tuesday -- a move the US embassy in the Philippines called a "serious step" -- touching off a six-month countdown to the end of the deal.

Make your own conclusions.

A Very Interesting Moment With Brahmos.

One of those A-ha (no, not the band) moments which clarifies a lot.  As TASS reports (in Russian), Russian co-director of Russian-Indian Joint Venture Brahmos speaking to reporters at Malaysia's LIMA 2019 military exhibition, stated that in the nearest future Brahmos missile (which is a version of Russia's P-800 Onyx missile) after some modifications will reach speeds of M=4.5-5.0, thus making it effectively a hyper-sonic weapon which, as you may have guessed it already, have the most serious operational and strategic ramifications. 

Rumor has it that Russia's 3M22 Zircon capable of M=9 is built on Onyx's design, but it is one thing to have a new missile such as Zircon, totally another--to be able to upgrade own whole "fleet" of missiles from simply deadly (M=3) to uninterceptable. It is also clear that laser weapons will not become a reliable and effective counter-measure for such a threat any time soon, and I mean not soon at all. In the end, issues of attenuation and counter-measures from missiles themselves (from rotating frames, to reflective surfaces, among others) are more than sufficient to keep laser weapons as a niche weapon primarily against slow unprotected targets, such as drones, for a very long time. But my point here is this (I write about it in my new book)--what about proliferation? 

I think proliferation of a hyper-sonic weapons is inevitable, both as a military product and as a geopolitical one. The demand for it is huge because it means safety of own littorals from any kind of forces and threats. There will be many, in addition to already huge number, statements, declarations and documents about A2/AD "bubbles" and how to puncture them, but without radical transformation of the surface fleets away from what they are today and introduction of real weapons systems capable of stopping hyper-sonic missiles tens kilometers away from ships, all this will remain an operational and strategic (and doctrinal) pseudo-intellectual masturbation for all kinds of military "analysts" for a long time. Think for a second what happens even if one "blows" M=9 or even M=5 missile in 2-3 kilometers from own ship? How about, in the best case scenario, a shower of the hyper-sonic fragments still capable to disable the ship? Questions, questions....  

So, It Is Naval Strike Missile For US Navy, After All.

US Navy chose Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile (NSM) for US Navy's LCS program. Kongsberg touts this missile in no uncertain terms as:

NSM is the only fifth generation long range precision strike missile in existence as per today. Already chosen by the Royal Norwegian Navy for its new frigates and new coastal corvettes, the NSM will be fully operational on these ships when they enter service in the near future. The NSM is also selected by the Polish Navy for use on its new coastal artillery installations. 

The immediate question one has to ask is this--what is "fifth" generation anti-shipping missile? What ARE real requirements for a missile to become "fifth generation"? Stealthiness? Well, F-35 is "stealth" and is "fifth generation", it flies, however, in such a way that makes all those 1960s and 1970s old timers sitting under the Arizona's burning sun in retirement laugh sarcastically. Maybe the fact that claimed "long range" of 100 nautical miles for such a missile is considered something special? I don't know. This is not impressive, even considering "stealth" and possibly improved signal processing and EW resistance for this missile's homing device. 

But the main issue is, of course, speed. It is again subsonic, granted presented as "high subsonic", and that means, even considering NSMs sea-skimming profile--the issue of modern and competent air defense comes up immediately. No doubt, such a missile will be very effective against commercial traffic and against naval targets with weak, or altogether absent, dedicated air defense but if this is a "distributed lethality", it is, certainly, not a very impressive one. I have, in this case, go with what is stated in Ronald O'Rurke's Report for Congress in which he states some rather startling facts about new FFG(X) ship (allegedly Frigate) which is supposed to be main carrier for this missile:

The ship is to be a multimission small surface combatantcapable of conducting AAW, ASuW, ASW , and EMW operations.

·

Compared to the FF concept that emerged under the February 2014 restructuring of the LCS program, the FFG(X) is to have increased AAW and EMW capability, and enhanced survivability.

·

The ship’s area defense AAW system is to be capable of local area AAW, meaning a form of area-defense AAW that extends to a lesser range than the area-defense AAW that can be provided by the Navy’s cruisers and destroyers.

·

The ship is to be capable of operating in both blue water (i.e., mid-ocean) and littoral (i.e., near-shore) areas.

·

The ship is to be capable of operating either independently (when that is appropriate for its assigned mission) or as part of larger Navy formations.

   

The new FFX(G) is supposed to have scaled Aegis and even Standard and Evolved Sea Sparrow missiles. This is all fine and dandy once one considers the next entry which, and I quote:

                     Follow-On Ships

The Navy wants the follow-on ships in the FFG(X) program (i.e., ships 2 through 20) to have an average unit procurement cost of $800 million to $950 million each in constant 2018 dollars. By way of comparison, the two LCSs that the Navy requested for FY2018 had an estimated average unit procurement cost of about $568 million each, and the two DDG-51 class destroyers that the Navy has requested for FY2019 have an estimated average unit procurement cost of about $1,764 million each.

Get it? Almost a billion a pop. Now get this simplest scenario: Littoral, say of some Zamunda, which has procured P-800 Onyx both on land (shore) and on some small 5-6 missile boats unit of its minute navy. And there is no any US Navy's CBG in sight--after all FFX(G) is supposed to be a bigger, better, badder LCS--that is LITTORAL Combat Ship. So, what are the chances of these FFG(X) getting into battle with such hypothetical "flotilla" which can launch a salvo of  Mach=3 capable sea-skimming missiles from 600 kilometers and surviving? What if this salvo consists of 8 P-800s. You know the probability of sinking such an FFG(X) in such a salvo? I don't, but my gut tells me that in case of even two FFG(X) group we may have a very high probability of a leaker, may be two. Remarkably, the only anti-surface weapon these FFG(X)s will have against Zamundian flotilla will be allegedly "long range" (that is less than 185 kilometers, compare to 600) and very slow for modern AD systems Naval Strike Missiles. We, obviously, can play here with salvo model and Fractional Exchange Rates (FERs) but this is beyond the scope of this piece. My point is very simple--unless one talks about sinking some third world weak navies, subsonic anti-shipping missiles become increasingly a niche weapon (for sinking smaller ships) and it is really strange how, yet again, US Navy immensely expensive combatant doesn't stack that well against what is en vogue today and will remain in a foreseeable future--these are high supersonic and hyper-sonic, long-range anti-shipping weapons. For such weapons sinking a billion or two of technology armed with a morally obsolete "fifth generation" missile will be not a big deal and this paradigm is not coming, it is here.