Everything Is Driven ...

 ... by PR by people with zero understanding of the tactical-technical and operational realities of modern warfare. So, they lament and come up with BS. 

Australia’s controversial decision to transfer 49 retired M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine remains a source of contention among Western allies. That’s because the performance of those older Australian tanks has highlighted the weaknesses of MBTs in modern combat more generally, and, specifically, has shown that the vaunted Abrams MBT might not be the king of battle any longer.

Two points:

1. MBT is "weakened" in NATO (US) only whose staff structures do not understand that 404 poured Niagara of military BS into their ears, which tells you about a very low intellectual level of those staffers who missed the whole point that if anything else MBTs resurrected themselves as a critical element of modern battlefield and Russian tanks can take punishment no NATO tank can. But then again--NATO was building its fighting doctrine based on fairy tales from defeated Wehrmacht generals. I already elaborated on this matter here. 

2. Abrams IS vaunted, much talked up. It is not a good tank(c) per Colonel Macgregor who commanded a regiment of those. There is very little military (combat) value in blowing away backward monkey model (basic ballistic computer and basic optics) Iraqi T-72As and totally another meeting something like T-72B3 let alone T-90V Proryv which are fully netcentric systems with excellent optronic suite, comms and most importantly great gun and ability to launch ATGMs through it. 

So, it all comes down to PR and carefully constructed US military mythology which has very little if anything to do with the reality--only with this: 

Michael Bay has been tapped to direct a movie centered around Operation Epic Fury at Universal Pictures, the studio confirmed Wednesday. The untitled film tells the true story of a massive rescue effort to save two pilots downed during the April 2026 attacks in Iran. The film adapts a book from Mitchell Zuckoff coming in 2027 from Harper Collins.

Well, you get my drift, right? 

On A Pleasant Note...

... the world changed so much... Russia's favorite Aussie's  family got their green cards.

Turn on CCs. As I am on record--people from big nations (geographically) move in a very different plane. American West, Russian Altai--those are places for people who value real life. Yes, it is hard sometimes, but it is the same thing which makes me wonder at Montana and Glaciers National Park or Cascades--the scale. 

P.S. I am damn sure this wonderful Australian (now Russian) girl has about a regiment of Russian suitors, LOL)) 

Yeah, Good Luck With That.

France, as was anticipated, started to complain and take "actions". 

French shipbuilder Naval Group has said it will send a “detailed and calculated proposal” to Australia after Canberra canned a $40 billion submarine deal in favor of a new pact with the US and UK, much to France’s dismay. On Wednesday, Naval Group CEO Pierre Eric Pommellet told France’s Le Figaro newspaper that Australia would be receiving a bill for the submarine contract which was cancelled last week. Pommellet said a “detailed and calculated proposal” would be sent to Canberra in the next “few weeks” which sets out the money it expects Australia to cough up for cancelling the 2016 deal. The shipbuilder chief said that such an eventuality had been planned for by the French firm.The bill will supposedly cover costs already incurred as well as those to come, with some “linked to demobilization of infrastructure and IT as well as the redeployment of employees,” he said, adding that the company will assert its rights.

Any chance of me getting on the French legal team which will be dealing with this issue? I expect a financial bonanza for lawyers in this matter. But, on the other hand, one has to keep in mind that at this level, same as was with hapless Mistrals' deal (awarded to France by Russia for "mediation" after Russian-Georgian War of 080808), geopolitics and operational realities play as large, if not larger, role as financial considerations, however important $40 billion are. As I continue to stress for the last week: we still don't have all facts on our hands in terms of American-Australian intentions and I want to underscore--we are merely speculating for now. If lease comes through, things will become much clearer. Some are even suggesting the possibility of US converted Ohio-class SSGNs leased out to Australia. I doubt it, but I could be wrong. Obviously with a single Ohio-class SSGN packing 154 TLAMs this is a concern for China. But then again--I stress it--for now it is mostly a speculation. 

 

I personally lean towards SSNs on SLOCs, but we just have to wait and see. As for French grievances, well, what can I say--geopolitical weight of players is too different, not in France's favor, for France to have any reasonable chances on substantial compensation, not to speak of a wounded national pride. Thanks to Larch for pointing this out. 

HELSINKI, Finland (AP) — The top U.S. military officer met with his Russian counterpart Wednesday, against the backdrop of U.S. struggles to get military basing rights and other counterterrorism support in countries bordering Afghanistan — a move Moscow has flatly opposed. The meeting in the Finnish capital, Helsinki, between Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov comes at a crucial time in the wake of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Without troops on the ground, the U.S. needs to forge more basing, intelligence sharing and other agreements to help monitor al-Qaida and Islamic State militants in Afghanistan to ensure they are not regrouping and posing a threat to America and its allies. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said in July, however, that Moscow warned the U.S. that any deployment of American troops in countries neighboring Afghanistan “is unacceptable.” He said Russia told the U.S. “in a direct and straightforward way that it would change a lot of things not only in our perceptions of what’s going on in that important region, but also in our relations with the United States.”

As I am on record for years--I feel better when Russian and American militaries speak to each-other. Russia, obviously, is not going to allow US troops to be stationed in all those Stans, but I want to stress another tremendously important point: there IS a very real threat of Jihad and terrorism which should not be discounted against the background of the US escape from Afghanistan. We can only speculate (yet again) on a complexity of this issue, but it is an established fact that exchange between Russia and US regarding these matters exists and it is steady. Well, the United States can only blame itself for this development, with special thanks to Zbig, who due to him being a rather fanatical Russophobe and a pseudo-scholar thought that the United States can manage Political Islam it helped to create and fund. We all know how American political "science" works in real life, ask Fukuyama, late Huntington or present day Mearsheimer who got lost completely in their ignorance of the outside world.  But then again, it is a defining feature of American "academe" and elites. The proof, as it is known, is in the pudding, or as Hegel stated--practice is the criterion of the truth. Those who are not brainwashed are well aware of this truth.    

In related news, Russia continues to build and launch those pesky missile corvettes capable of carrying anything from 3M14M and 3M54M to Zircon, like there is no tomorrow. The latest one, two days ago was launched in Kerch, at Zaliv wharf. 

This one is named Askold after the famous Russian cruiser of Russo-Japanese war and of Gallipoli fame. It (she) still has to have navalized Pantsir and other systems installed. Can you imagine a ceremony at Zaliv when first project 23900 LHD will be launched? I hope to live to see this. I am sure HIMSELF will be present for this occasion. I am also in a desperate anticipation of Admiral Nakhimov getting more publicity and getting ready for sea trials in 2023. I cannot recognize this world anymore. The changes in the last 5 years are stunning and historic in scale and scope.

This Issue Is Not Going Away.

Well, then I might as well address it. I am talking about this whole AUKUS affair and France losing huge contact on submarines for Royal Australian Navy. At this stage I am not interested in technical minutiae of this whole scandal, because it is useless anyway to concentrate on technical details of something which may change many times before, and if, it comes to fruition. I am, however, as always, interested in fundamental factors defining the framework. Le Drian and anyone in France' political top can express their frustration and play geopolitical games whatever they want, such as running to India:

On Friday, France recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after Australia scrapped a major submarine program with France in favor of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines with the help of the US and UK. Paris furiously protested the new arrangement between Australia, the US and UK, known as AUKUS. Le Drian called the ditching of French-Australian submarine program “a stab in the back.”

It still doesn't change the fact that in the times of a severe, terminal crisis of Pax Americana and Western liberalism, France is not a global superpower and is only important as an attachment to the Anglo-Saxon world which is in a desperate fight for its survival as one of the global power poles. Simple as that. France is simply not that important for this existential struggle. In the end, D.C. and London care about themselves first, however distorted and delusional this care is, and Paris is viewed merely as a "food" and will be consumed if necessity and opportunity arise. You all may counter that France has her own nuclear deterrent, she has Renault and is the home for Airbus, she has her own space program etc. Right. It all is present, but let's not forget the definition, not West's political pseudo science BS, of global power. Right, the definition is Jeffrey Barnett's (not to be mistaken with Corelli Barnett) 14 points and allow me to remind you what they are. Barnett listed them in the US Army War College quarterly Parameteres in 1994.  No matter how France's achievements are considered, some of them with well deserved respect, France simply does not dominate any of those 14 points. 

France does not dominate access to space, US, Russia, China and India do, France doesn't control Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC), the United States, China and Russia do, France certainly does not provide the majority of the finished goods, China does and France certainly does not dominate the high-tech weapons industry, US and Russia do. Even if to imagine that tomorrow Marine Nationale will add two other nuclear powered aircraft carriers to its order of battle, this still will not make France a global power. Militarily and economically France is a second tier power, which surrendered part of her sovereignty to supranational organizations such as NATO and EU and thus fails in the most important criterion defining global or superpower--fully independent and protected global policies. France also is not capable to create and maintain any kind of meaningful alliance on her own. The United States and Russia can, while China, due to her economic and demographic enormity, is an alliance in and of herself. Plus China and Russia DO have alliance between each-other. 

So, in this case, being a second tier regional power, France cannot expect her interests to be seriously considered when one talks about such immense, financially, projects as AUKUS. Alliances are created not only against someone but also for an exclusive access to capitals and markets, especially weapons markets, within those alliances. In this particular case France is an outsider and no matter what hyperbole frustrated French politicians use describing "betrayal" of France by Anglo-Saxons, it is what it is. Scott Ritter may well be right when describing this AUKUS thingy as: this is a story of geopolitically driven military procurement gone mad. But when one considers US' economic state which can only be described as FUBAR or clusterfuck, all means are good for maintaining a cash flow and France was simply removed on the road to this cash flow. Simple as that. Desperate times, desperate measures. Truism, really. 

So, no matter how much we discuss technical details of this whole circus, some lessons from it are already obvious and here I subscribe to every word in Ritter's conclusion:

But the fact remains that the US has no meaningful military counter to China, the UK is not capable of sustaining any credible military presence in the Pacific, and Australia cannot afford to acquire and operate a force of eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The Australian nuclear submarine project is a dangerous joke that only further exacerbates the existing geopolitical crisis with China by injecting a military dimension which will never see the light of day. 

This whole AUKUS thing, as I already stated previously, is a great indicator of a waning power of the United States, which in desperate attempts to preserve the remnants of her once self-proclaimed global hegemony, will go to any length, hopefully, short of nuclear war, and if it takes to humiliate and "sacrifice" France, so be it. Western Europe should get ready to be, as I wrote for many years (I quote one from 2 years ago):

Macron makes one mistake here. Well, several mistakes, actually. For starters "Pushing Russia from Europe" was not a "strategic mistake"--that was the plan and main objective of Washington, headed then by Obama and being continuously implemented now by Trump Administration. Moreover, "pushing Russia" out is not just about Russia, but by implication about Europe itself. Europe as it exists today is of no interest to Russia in any metaphysical sense, except for purely economic interest as a market, but majority of Russians are counting their blessings now because of this "pushing out" largely succeeding. Europe, meanwhile, is a sacrificial lamb for the United States, which, in a desperate attempt to save herself, will demolish Europe economically because European elites are a pathetic parody on a required political leadership, some of them are outright imbeciles, not to mention that vast swathes of them are effectively products of the American selection. So, no--let Europe deal with the US, or vice-versa, and keep Russia out of it. 

So, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Oh, come on, the United States needs to eat too. The moment France reintegrated into NATO fully in 2009, a process championed by then President Sarkozy, it was all over for France. Too bad they didn't see it coming. Well, they see it now. As they say: better late than never. Tolstoy saw it long time ago:

A Frenchman is self-assured because he regards himself personally, both in mind and body, as irresistibly attractive to men and women. An Englishman is self-assured, as being a citizen of the best-organized state in the world, and therefore as an Englishman always knows what he should do and knows that all he does as an Englishman is undoubtedly correct. An Italian is self-assured because he is excitable and easily forgets himself and other people. A Russian is self-assured just because he knows nothing and does not want to know anything, since he does not believe that anything can be known. The German’s self-assurance is worst of all, stronger and more repulsive than any other, because he imagines that he knows the truth—science—which he himself has invented but which is for him the absolute truth. 

Well, what can I say. It is the 21st Century and France learned absolutely nothing since her last Titan and Hero departed in 1969. Or, rather, was forced out by what many still consider a color revolution organized by the US. Time to face consequences.  

Meanwhile Russia continues to build those missile corvettes as if there is no tomorrow, the latest one, Grad (Hail), was floated out at Zelenodolsk yesterday (video in Russian). 

With new 4,500 kilometer range 3M14M coming up, these ships can pretty much strike anything in Europe from some river or lake deep within Russia's territory. Just in case. In other rfelated news:

TEHRAN (Iran News) – Moscow Signs Deal With Tehran to Boost Aircraft Sales.The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) and the Civil Aviation Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on September 6, 2021, intended to “create favorable conditions for the approval of the standard design of Russian civil aviation equipment when exported to Iran.” The agreement is the result of negotiations that took place between the two aviation authorities in June 2021, Rosaviatsia explained in a statement.

Iran will get a large number of fully Russified SSJ-100Rs. MS-21 is in line, once Russia satisfies her internal commercial aviation needs.

Karmik Bitchitude.

Maria Zakharova certainly knows physical principles of boomerang and reacting to Australia "choosing" US-British nuclear subs instead of French diesel ones and we are talking about gigantic multi-billion dollar contract. 

МОСКВА, 16 сен — РИА Новости. Официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова, комментируя разрыв контракта между Австралией и Францией на создание подлодок, напомнила Парижу об их решении в ситуации с производством авианосцев "Мистраль".

Translation: MOSCOW, September 16 - RIA Novosti. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, commenting on the breaking the contract between Australia and France for submarines, reminded Paris of their decision in the situation with the production of the Mistral aircraft carriers.

Ah, the karma, what a bitch. Thankfully, Russia never got her Mistrals and that was a huge blessing in disguise, but then again, as I state in my video, it is about both shrinking financial pie of the combined West and about dropping non Anglo-Saxon "ally" of France in favor of the increase of the "cohesion" of Anglo-Saxondom in a face of a lot of geopolitical centrifugal forces exacerbated by the Washington's desire to "counter" China. 

Now French complain: 

France's foreign minister has spoken of his "anger" and "bitterness" and has criticized the US and Britain, after the allies agreed a deal to supply nuclear submarines to Australia, undoing Paris' $40-billion deal for French subs. "I am angry and bitter. This isn't done between allies," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio on Thursday morning, after the leaders of Australia, the UK and US convened a virtual press conference on Wednesday night, announcing the AUKUS pact and the delivery of conventionally-armed nuclear-power submarines to Canberra.The delivery of the nuclear subs under the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) pact means Canberra will scrap a 2016 deal with French firm Naval Group to upgrade its fleet with more diesel submarines. The scrapped deal was reportedly worth $40 billion."This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do," Le Drian stated. He also took aim at Canberra, "it's a stab in the back. We created a relationship of trust with Australia and that trust has been broken." 

I am really impressed with France's insouciance in the times leading to this breach of the contract--did Elysee Palace even try to figure out a pecking order recently? Nah, with people like Macron trying to play a big honcho, it is not surprising that France is bitter because she was decisively shown her proper place of a US lap-dog and that of merely regional power, despite France having her own nuclear deterrent. Macron and his people better wake up and face the reality or, for that matter, learn France's recent history when France actually mattered--yes, yes, I am talking about the times of Charles de Gaulle and France's independent foreign policy. Today, France is just another EU and NATO country living with the phantom pains of past greatness, with the rare exception of football. One had to ask the question, really, on why UK decided to leave the EU? For all degeneracy of British "elites" one cannot deny them some level of intuition and cynicism when deciding which camp to join: doomed EU with a bunch of continental nobodies when taken separately or the United States, which, while in a very rough clusterfuckish shape, at least has some shot at some future, plus London loves to think about itself that it matters, and within the framework of Anglo-Saxondom it does, unlike it is the case when global power balance is considered. 

 

Unlike the UK, France has nobody to run to. Moscow now puts a lot of popcorn in those Kremlin microwaves and is preparing for a circus and a delightful time of schadenfreude. I would. Especially now, when S-500s started to arrive to the front line units (in Russian) and if that wasn't enough, Borisov dropped another bomblet of sorts, when stated that potentially India may become a buyer of S-500s but only after Russia's Air Defense will have all of its needs satisfied (in Russian). After that he proceeded to underscore that Russia will preserve her lead in hyper-sonic weapons and with S-500s now in serial production and being procured to the front line units it becomes clear that any attempts to place any type of low orbit vehicles (that is why the Starlink constellation of mini-satellites is being developed really) and control them there will be, in case of, God forbid, war, stopped and any combat assets destroyed. These are the quickening times and Australia getting (or having them shoved it down her throat) nuclear subs is but one of the increasingly manifest signs of a new multi-polar world taking shape.  

She Is Not Alone.

I speak all the time about Westerners who are moving to Russia. Here is one such wonderful and charming girl from Australia who moved to Novosibirsk couple years or so ago and wants to stay in Russia. Here is adorable Sabrina doing her shopping (and you guessed it--in Auchan) together with her brother:

And now, sadly, this young woman and the family are under the threat of well... leaving and she posted today (in Russian) her plea to...Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to allow her family to stay in Novosibirsk and reunite with Sabrina's parents, who are in Australia now, and continue with their farming in Siberia. 

I know many people from Russia, some of them in the position of power and in media, frequent this blog, so I post it here and ask Russia to help these wonderful Russian Aussies with them staying in their new-found home and with reuniting separated by COVID family. Russia needs these kind of people. RT, where are you? I am sure, judging by the response from Russians, especially from Novosibirsk, the public opinion is firmly in Sabrina and her family's corner. So, I do here my small part. We may expect more people like that moving to Russia and I mean full blown "Westerners", people of European descent. 

We still don't know real numbers of such people moving to Russia but Maria Zakharova IS ON record during one of her briefings recently saying that she personally is besieged by inquiries about and requests for allowing to move to Russia from people from the US, UK, EU and, as this video shows, Australia. Well, Boers are already settling in Buryatia. The girls are adorable and learned Russian in...half-a-year just by watching Russian cartoons. 

I like how they say that Stavropol is "too hot". Well...Siberia, you know))) How strange, if not surreal, to read these great lines once written about America in modern context:

“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Freedom is the right to say two plus two make four. If granted, all else follows

The creek will turn into the river.