Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Points Of Interest.

Yes, this is a great interview of Colonel Macgregor to Judge, but Judge's quip about Air Force and Army at 28:50 is as hilarious as it is accurate))


Now to a point that Acqua brought to our attention and that fits extremely well in my thesis that American "realists" are nothing more than collection of American exceptionalists--a euphemism for imperialists--with milder more aesthetically acceptable manners. These were and are the guys who played all along into the narrative of Russia's weakness and decline (no, Mearsheimer is not alone marked with this dubious distinction) which created the impression among uncultured and badly educated Washington establishment that it can fight and win a war against Russia. Now, that the outcome of the SMO (I stress again--Operation) is not (it never was) in doubt for the combined West, we have one of those "realist" outlets which is adorned in its writing staff with such amateurs and Russophobes as Anatol Lieven and others coping with the outcome. They wet dream, they wet dream big and here is a wowser from the (former) academic staff of the US Naval War College by Lyle Goldstein. Goldstein proposes to Trump Administration: 

Since Donald Trump’s reelection, his campaign promise to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine War has seemed increasingly out of reach as the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. It's hard to imagine that dispatching more arms to Ukraine and slapping more sanctions on Russia will be successful at achieving peace. The Russian army continues its slow but steady advance, so Putin may well have concluded that his country should push for a more complete Russian military victory and defy any near-term Western peace overtures. However, the incoming administration has an opportunity to break from the status quo and entice Russia to end the war. This should include incentives with respect to the Arctic — an issue guaranteed to capture Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attention. Such an option could also prove attractive to Trump, who approaches the world through the lens of a businessman looking to strike big deals.

Putin’s participation in a November ceremony launching the new nuclear icebreaker Chukotka elicited little notice in the West but demonstrated the Russian president’s laser-like focus on developing the Arctic region. The vessel is reported to be the largest and most capable icebreaker in the world at 567 feet in length and displacing 33,500 tons, with two nuclear reactors that provide 350 megawatts of power, allowing it to break through ice nearly 10 feet thick.

Such ships do not come cheap, and the Chukotka is priced at about half a billion dollars. The Chukotka is the fourth in a series of nuclear icebreakers, with another of the same class, the Yakutia, also nearing completion and a fresh keel due to be laid down in 2025. In October, an even more ambitious class of nuclear icebreakers received the green light for production in a shipyard near Vladivostok, costing $1 billion, an astronomical sum in today’s Russia.  The destination of the icebreakers is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shipping route that runs north of Russia and connects Western Europe to the Asia-Pacific. This year, a variety of new records have been set in the NSR, including for the largest ever container ship, which traversed the NSR in September, and the most oil ever transported. 

For starters, I have news for Goldstein: 

1. Do not measure anything Russia produces in US Dollars--it is a fool's errand, a method invented by the white board academic frauds from the Wall Street and Ivy League economics departments, precisely the thing which brought about geopolitical defeat of the combined West which turned out to be military and economic paper tiger.

2. $1 billion, while a large sum of money, is by no means something dramatic or astronomical for Russia and her budget. E.g. non-existent and over budget (and already delayed) US Navy's new SSBN of Columbia-class WILL cost around $9-10 billion per a single sub, for the same price Russians already built EIGHT (5 operational, 3 getting ready) state-of-the-art SSBNs of Borei-class, which carry weapons which make SLBM Trident -II D5 look like a backwater. 

Goldstein should know this, he taught at the USNWC. In the end, it is a respectable educational institution. And then there are THESE guys. 

And not only--Russia's Arctic research and development programs dwarf anything combined West can even dream about--after all; it is all about capability. Goldstein does refer to them, somewhat ... but then arrives to a completely out of the blue conclusion about North Sea Route (NSR). 

Yet despite incremental progress, Chinese and Russian analysts are aware that the Arctic passage will never achieve its true potential without Western backing.

What? I understand where Goldstein comes from and not all of it is bad, but that is a complete delusion. In fact, the growing Russia's military presence in Arctic, including both ground and naval component, is designed precisely to prevent the West from any "backing" of the Arctic passage. Russians know damn well what "true potential" of this passage is and are going it alone. Not to speak of the fact that Trump "lifting sanctions" on Russia (he was the one who boasted about being the most "anti-Russian President" in his first term) is altogether from a parallel universe. Russia is done with the West, period. Combined West lies, cheats, steals and will continue to do so and the only conversations with it is possible with these things in the background. 
Or these 
Or these. 
These are the only things that matter, no matter what Trump's plans are. He lied again today about "negotiations" with Putin (in Russian). He cannot live a day without self-aggrandizing. 

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