In Continuation Of The "Realist" Logic.

Here is an example of John Mearsheimer talking to Col. Daniel Davis today and starting immediately with the right conclusion based on a completely false premise. See for yourself--this is the start of the discussion. 

He is absolutely correct stating that Trump will not get ceasefire, but it is not because "Russians are on the roll". Here we have, AGAIN, a complete confusion re: Russia's intentions and how General Staff works. For starters, Russians were on the roll the moment in 2023 it became clear that not only much touted "counteroffensive" has been defeated (with up to 200 000 casualties for VSU and their NATO curators), but because of HOW it was defeated--VSU forces have been demolished in the forefield (a "security zone" per the US Army's Field Manuals). Let's rewind back to January 6, 2023, Orthodox Christmas time. Here is Dmitry Medvedev verbatim: 

The Ukrainians were extended a hand of Christian mercy on the Great Feast. Their leaders rejected it. I think most of our servicemen taking part in the SVO breathed a sigh of relief upon hearing the refusal of the main Ukrainian clowns to cease fire on Christmas. Less problems and deceit. It's a pity for people who have lost the opportunity to go to church. But pigs have no faith and no innate sense of gratitude. They understand only brute force and shrilly demand food from their owners. This is the basis of training. And it will be continued by Western swineherds. Even the illiterate German granny Baerbock and a number of other overseers of the European pigsty managed to yelp about the inadmissibility of a truce. Well, the heirs of the Nazis have never pitied either people or animals. They are used to it...

I think it is clear that in 2023, and that was even before catastrophic "counteroffensive", that Russians have anticipated this suicidal move on part of Washington, and it was after this disaster for Washington and Kiev that General Staff issued forecast, extremely precise, that VSU lost any ability to conduct strategic offensive operations (in Russian). They still could do suicidal PR actions such as invasion of Kursk Oblast, where they lost a whole combined arms army, but for some reason most American "realists" and "experts" never studied Eastern Front in WW II properly (hard to do so in the West) and missed completely Russian Army setting into the strategic defense in the end of the 2022 which was the worst possible news for NATO planners who, due to them being mostly educated on Hollywood movies such as Patton, did not recognize that Russians haven't been into this business to capture territory--they are in this business for physical annihilation of the enemy, while preserving own forces. 

And it was after the strategic catastrophe of VSU in 2023 that it became absolutely clear that there will be not any "ceasefires" nor any "negotiations". Moreover, it is difficult to explain to people who grew up on American post-Vietnam military mythology (such as John Mearsheimer) that American war metrics simply do not apply to SMO, especially when for many in the US it becomes a complete revelation that Russian Army never lost operational initiative. So, the argument, that Russians are on a roll is merely an outdated geographic metric which obscures real reasons for no ceasefire. Here are the numbers again--they are beyond the grasp of any graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College: 

Москва. 20 февраля. INTERFAX.RU - Потери Вооруженных сил Украины в ходе контрнаступления в 2023 году составили свыше 166 тысяч военнослужащих, более 800 танков, почти 2,4 тысячи боевых бронированных машин, заявил министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу.  "Задействовав такие огромные силы, противнику не удалось дойти даже до первой линии обороны. До первой линии обороны, а их дальше еще две. Потеряв 166 тысяч убитыми и ранеными, (...) более 800 танков, почти 2400 боевых бронированных машин", - сказал Шойгу в интервью российским журналистам. Шойгу также заявил, что российские войска уничтожили больше половины танков Leopard, поставленных ВСУ.   

Translation: Moscow. February 20. INTERFAX.RU - The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the counteroffensive in 2023 amounted to over 166 thousand servicemen, more than 800 tanks, almost 2.4 thousand combat armored vehicles, said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. "Having deployed such huge forces, the enemy did not even manage to reach the first line of defense. The first line of defense, and there are two more of them. Having lost 166 thousand killed and wounded, (...) more than 800 tanks, almost 2,400 combat armored vehicles," Shoigu said in an interview with Russian journalists. Shoigu also said that Russian troops destroyed more than half of the Leopard tanks supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

That's the main reason and that is what being on the roll is. Some time, I think, they have issues with basic math. 

Highlighted in yellow (in fact the whole column) is the main reason why there will be no ceasefire. This is also why I question basic military professional skills of Kellogg, who believed Kiev's propaganda BS about losses. They know very little about real war and they are terrified of a moment when they will have to face a reality--reality of who they are, not to mention always huge issues with causality.  

P.S.  "You cannot trust Americans and their word"(c)