Tuesday, June 22, 2021

And So It Starts.

As I said it many times, such as I reiterated it recently, and I quote:

I also love to use Andrei Andreevich Gromyko's famous dictum that ten years of negotiations is better than one day of war. United States desperately needed a summit with Russia after the events around LDNR in April this year. The United States needed this dialogue for a variety of reasons and Russians, as I state non-stop for many years, will talk to the devil himself if need be, because Russians know what real war is better than anyone in the world, let alone American politicians, and Russians are, obviously, keenly aware of the fire power they have at their disposal. At Geneva both sides agreed to talk about "strategic stability". 

So, now the dance starts. Speaking today at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made a number of interesting points, albeit I cannot even imagine what poor Ryabkov should have thought about this gathering at CIA... pardon me, ahem... Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (LOL))), since at 2:00 after Ryabkov's keynote address, this "esteemed" org had this event planned:

Toward Equity and Antiracism in Nuclear Policymaking. Many national security institutions—including those in the nuclear policy field—are strengthening their diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts. Such efforts focus on the important goal of incorporating diverse voices in spaces where they have historically been underrepresented, but what else should equity in nuclear policymaking entail? What are the barriers to achieving equity?  How could diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts contribute to achieving an antiracist foreign policy? And, how might such efforts ultimately affect policy outcomes on contemporary nuclear issues, including Iran, North Korea, nuclear weapons modernization, and disarmament? 
So, nuclear power is now racist. Poor Ryabkov, poor Lavrov--now you understand why Lavrov is a chain smoker? You would become one when you have to deal with woke imbeciles who have nuclear weapons and nuclear power at their disposal--a classic case of a monkey with a grenade. I am sure they need diversity officers on US Navy's SSBNs of Ohio-class and operators of US nuclear power stations should only be judged and allowed to carry out their duties at the controls of nuclear power stations only after they pass Critical Race Theory exam, which, of course, automatically opens many vacancies for "diverse voices". The US is becoming a third world country with an astonishing speed. So, famous Lavrov's meme is perfectly applicable to this situation. But, moving on. 
Ryabkov stated, as Ria reports:
"В самом ближайшем будущем наши страны приступят к новому раунду многоуровневого стратегического диалога. Мы выразили готовность приступить к этому диалогу энергично и без промедлений. Надеюсь, что уже очень скоро переговорные команды начнут консультации"
Translation: In the immediate future both our countries will undertake a new round of a multi-level strategic dialogue. We expressed our readiness to undertake this dialogue energetically and without any delay. I hope that in the nearest future negotiating teams will start consultations. 
What consultations you may ask. Let me me give you my impression--those consultations will start with defining red lines for Russia. Russians have a very good idea about those red lines and what they want to accomplish. 
1. Not to stumble into a direct military conflict, which will have catastrophic consequences for the world. Evidently now the American side also wants this.
2. Russia is ready to discuss US' main concern of Russia's arsenal only so far and even that "so far" will require from the US very serious quid-pro-quo but will not change the balance of power. 
3. No negotiations on China-Russia alliance, period.
This will be the start of the dance. The United States desperately needs to win some time, because it thinks that slowing down what I describe for years as Real Revolution in Military Affairs driven by Russia, it has a chance to address at least some exponentially growing gaps in crucial military systems. United States needs to at least try (it is trying now) to get near actual workable hyper-sonic weapon and, possibly, some directed energy weapon. This may happen but even the brief review of preliminary results and progress confirm what many Russian weapons specialists stated many times: probably around 10 years before IOC for such an American weapon. By then Russia will be in the new generation of such weapons and the issue of anti-missile defense inevitably comes forth. 
Well, frankly, I don't see how the United States can close this ever-widening gap. With A-235 Nudol and S-500 effectively in IOC and S-400 incorporating S-500's newest radar Yenisey and sharing long range missiles with it, not to mention a plethora of advanced air-defense systems (such as S-350) being deployed--the United States will try to slow down next generation of Russian ABM, Anti-hypersonic and similar systems as much as it can, but Russian advantage here is so massive, that it is difficult to imagine what can the US even propose. When I write that the United States lost the arms race I really mean it, because this is exactly what have happened. The United States bases around the world, as well as the US proper are simply defenseless against Russia's arsenal. The United States wants to talk about it. It also wants to talk about Petrel (Burevestnik) and Poseidon which destroy any hope for the crazies in D.C. to survive. But in general, the MAIN driver in this dialogue for the United States is this: the fear of Russia reaching eventually the threshold beyond which, as American "thinkers" perceive it, she will be able to destroy the United States with a minimal or acceptable damage to herself. This is what really drives many D.C. politicos and is the main reason why the United States literally imposed itself on Russia in Geneva. 
But here is the point. Russia will reach this threshold, especially when one considers America's dramatic departure, across the board, in civilizational competition from a position of leadership but here where it all doesn't fit Western logic. Russians abhor war, they hate it, they cannot stand it. Arguably the greatest prose ever written is about hatred of war. It is Russian prose. Today, is the 80th dark anniversary of the unified forces of Europe headed by Nazi Germany committing what Leo Tolstoy wrote about the other war which took place 129 years earlier:
On the twelfth of June, 1812, the forces of Western Europe crossed the Russian frontier and war began, that is, an event took place opposed to human reason and to human nature. Millions of men perpetrated against one another such innumerable crimes, frauds, treacheries, thefts, forgeries, issues of false money, burglaries, incendiarisms, and murders as in whole centuries are not recorded in the annals of all the law courts of the world...
Change the date to June 22, 1941... The whole notion that Russians, who came to abhor war on a genetic level would want to attack first the United States and kill millions upon millions of innocent people: women, children, old people defies imagination and fits perfectly the perverted minds of US establishment none of who ever saw their own wives, children, dear ones killed by being bombed. Yet, when I write about Russia's history being solzhenitsified and being non-existent in any operational sense in the US, here is what the United States "knows" even today. In fact, this is the only thing they know.
You can read this Solzhenitsyn's unhinged rant, which was used by this US propaganda film to call for bombing the USSR here (in Russian). These are West's views of Russia, they never change, they never will until new generation of American leaders emerges, IF it emerges.
This is what Russians grimly mark today on the 80th--their fallen boys and girls, a generation almost entirely wiped out by the combined Europe in 1418 days of WW II. And that is why Russians will negotiate for ten years because they know, unlike their ignorant and uncultured counterparts, that those ten years are better than one day of war. And that is why Russia will never allow her weapons to fall behind. As it is known to every Russian: nobody is forgotten, nothing is forgotten. Simple as that. 
UPDATE: Here is Putin today:

 In related news today.

She is a magnificent ship (ship, not the air wing) but her CO's cliche about Cat and Mouse game is a bit dated. It was possible to play that in 1970s and even into the 80s. Nowadays, with modern sensors and space-based means of recon--easy to track and develop firing solution on anything above the surface, let alone such a huge ship. Even under the severest of EMCON procedures.

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