Thursday, December 27, 2018


I thought if I really need to even address the whole situation with Israeli Air Force attacking Syria on Christmas, but since things are slightly slower these days here are some thoughts. Omitting here a complete cowardice of Israeli military force using commercial air traffic as cover (September IL-20 tragedy becomes much clearer now) in Lebanon's air space, let's get to a man who has good clue on both what Israel's plans are and who is BiBi. Here is Yasha Kedmi stating explicitly  (in Russian) why Israel is so worried.
Уход США из Сирии разрушил планы руководства Израиля, и единственной страной, которая сохранит присутствие в САР, останется Россия. Говоря о том, как решение США о выводе войск из Сирии меняет ситуацию на Ближнем Востоке, Кедми отметил, что реальность для Израиля не меняется. Он подчеркнул: новая реальность в САР была создана в сентябре 2015 года, когда российские войска появились на двух базах в Сирии. С тех пор ВКС и ВМФ России в Хмеймиме и Тартусе – основной и постоянно присутствующий в регионе элемент. Руководители Израиля, в частности премьер Биньямин Нетаньяху, говорят неправду, когда утверждают, что знали об уходе США из Сирии. "Он не знал. Все в Израиле продолжали кричать, что американцы остаются в Сирии, что Сирия расчленится на несколько государств – и на этом строили свою стратегию. Когда ему президент США сказал "мы уходим", тогда до него дошло. Им хотелось, чтобы американцы остались – им удобно с ними. Но у американцев свои интересы"
Translation: United states leaving Syria destroyed plans of Israeli leadership, and the only country which will stay in Syria is Russia. Speaking about how US leaving Syria changes the situation in the Middle East, Kedmi noted that reality for Israel doesn't change. He underscored that the new reality in Syria was created in September 2015, when Russian troops appeared on two bases in Syria. Since then, Russia's VKS and Navy at Khmeimim and Tartus bases are the main and constantly present element in the region. Leaders of Israel, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, lie when state that they knew about US withdrawal. He didn't know. Everyone in Israel continues to scream that Americans will remain in Syria, that Syria will break up into several statelets--that is what they built their strategy upon. Only when POTUS stated "we are leaving" then it sunk in for Netanyahu. They wanted Americans to stay--for Israel it is comfortable with them. But Americans have their own interests.

Read the whole thing using Google translate--it is worth reading. So, the latest Israeli provocation against alleged Iranian "assets" in Syria on Christmas day didn't work out that well for Israel. Sure, BiBi, as he always does, tried to put a lipstick on the pig:
He forgot, of course, to mention this teeny-weeny fact that there are no "special capabilities" in either F-16 fighters nor in munitions they carry and that: 
On the evening of Christmas Day, six Israeli F-16 fighter jets used two civilian flights as cover to strike a logistics compound on the outskirts of Damascus from Lebanese airspace, the Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday. Thus, during the assault, the Syrian military was forced to restrict the use of air defense systems and radio jamming capabilities to avert a possible tragedy. Despite that advantage, only two of the sixteen Israeli-launched laser-guided bombs reached their targets, wounding three people, while the rest were intercepted.
Here we have to elaborate a bit more. This is especially important for Hasbara trolls and other uber-Israeli "patriots" who long ago lost any distinction between cowardice and courage, honor and disgrace. Judging by the stream of, well corroborated, reports on Syria's S1s shooting down 14 out of 16 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs, and minuscule damage the other two inflicted (3 wounded SAA soldiers, fast localized fire in the building which was hit), one can easily calculate that 14/16 x 100 = 87.5% of the munitions have been successfully intercepted. For people who watched recent Putin's performance during December 18 expanded Board of Russian MOD, he specifically pointed out low effectiveness of the modern (American) land attack weapons. He used the number of 30%, most likely based on April 2017 snafu with TLAMs.  Against modern multi-layered networked air defense the effectiveness, highly likely, will be even less.

It has to be understood that modern air-defense complexes when integrated into a network do see all and can develop solution on any type of the target which is not very high supersonic or hyper-sonic. Presently, S-300PMU2s which have been transferred to Syria's Air Defense are like a prod (or Damocles' sword, if one wishes) in Israel's side. What Israel really needs to do now is to abandon her regional supremacist plans and resign herself to the idea that either she negotiates in good faith or there will be ways to influence her more-or-less normal behavior. Unless, of course, Israel tries to do the unthinkable--but that is a whole other story. Israel supported ISIS and other terrorists in the region long enough. Time to stop pretending to be a great power (Israel is a regional military power totally dependent on the US and others) and face the reality, both military and geopolitical. In the end, Israel disgraced herself long enough, the last event this Christmas tops it off.            

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