For
those who don't know, Publius Tacitus is a high ranking US military
intelligence person whose identity is known to Colonel Patrick Lang. So, when
Publius talks people better listen, since it is a high level real professional
speaking. I give here the link to the original by Publius at SST but I would
make some comments here too.
I am not going to lie, I
do not freaking enjoy writing on military and geopolitical issues—I would
rather be writing about progressive rock, jazz and discuss architecture, nature
and maybe write an article, here and there, on some strategic issues and
history. I was denied this pleasure in 2014. I am, however, very encouraged by
the fact that there are many American military professionals who are, well,
professionals and as such remain true to their skills and knowledge. Doing so,
they preserve their professional and human integrity which is not only
admirable in itself but becomes increasingly important in the midst of media
ignorant bacchanalia. Here is what Publius states in few quotes:
Do not
believe a word you have heard from the Pentagon and the White House about the
"success" of the cruise missile strikes on Friday last. A fraud is
being perpetrated on the American people and the world at large.
The second issue concerns the imagined
success of the U.S. TLAM strike. Before General Mattis (retired) approached the
podium Friday night, he knew full well that a significant number of the inbound
missiles had been shot down inside Syria. That is why Mattis
closed his press conference with the following comment:
Based on recent experience, we fully expect a significant disinformation
campaign over the coming days by those who have aligned themselves with the
Assad regime. Give the old boy his due. He was inoculating the ridiculous
operation against legitimate criticism by simply being able to point out that
any information contrary to what the Pentagon said was "propaganda."
Of course, the enlisted and officers that staff the CAOC know differently. The
Russians and Syrians were not lying when they claimed to have downed more than
70 of the U.S., UK and French missiles. I understand the reluctance of the U.S.
military leaders to admit the truth about this debacle. It would undermine the
confidence of the American people is our supposedly invincible weapon systems
and would embarrass and enrage the man child that inhabits the White House.
Better to tell him lies and let him believe the fantasy.
As I stated not for once,
I wrote the book on what Publius very ably articulates in his piece.
A friend of mine who has
expertise in these matters wrote me: Any air defense engineer with a security
clearance that isn't lying through his teeth will admit that Russia's air
defense technology surpassed us in the 1950's and we've never been able to catch
up. The systems thy have in place surrounding Moscow make our Patriot 3's look
like fucking nerf guns.Finally there is the
matter of the Russians as a second rate military masquerading as a world power.
Another friend who has spoken with military commanders in the CENTCOM AOR told
me: All of the knowledgeable aircraft commanders are usually scared shitless
about the prospect of a legitimate air-to-air skirmish with a SU-30 or any
Russian air superiority fighter.But that is not what blowhards,
like retired General Jack Keane, believe:
Publius nails it here:
General Keane is confusing restraint with
weakness and incompetence. That is a dangerous and potentially deadly error to
make.
But it is not only General Keane—there are armies
of internet "warriors" and military faux "experts", most of
whom would shit their pants by standing next to 30-mm AAA in action, who want,
nay, demand the continuation of the show, now—with thousands military and
civilian personnel killed, aircraft shot down, ships sunk. I am disgusted with
this kind of armchair "strategists"—ignorant hacks who know not what
they are asking for. They are present on both sides. There is one slight
problem—real war is nothing like the computer games and the faster this will be
understood by most the better it will be for everyone, literally, everyone.
UPDATE: A little bit of "meat" from Russia's MOD and it is becoming more clear now that Syria's AD worked highly professionally and effectively.
As
many as 112 surface-to-air missiles, including 25 Pansir missiles, were used by
Syria’s air defense forces to repel the strike delivered by the United States,
France and the United Kingdom, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said. "A
total of 112 surface-to-air guided missiles were used to repel the
strike," he said, adding that 23 out of 25 missiles fired from the
Pansir-S1 system had hit their targets.
"Twenty-nine
missile were fired from the Buk system, with 24 of them hitting targets. Eleven
missiles were fired from the Osa system. Five of them hit the targets. Thirteen
missiles were fired from the S-125 system, five hit the targets. Five missiles
were fired from the Strela-10 system, three hit the targets, Twenty-one
missiles were fired from the Kvadrat system, eleven hit the targets. Eight
missiles were fired from the S-200 systems, none hit the targets," he
said, adding that such poor performance of the S-200 system could be explained
by the fact that it was meant to hit aircraft. Moreover, in his words, a
missile fire from this system hit a fighter jet of one of the neighboring
countries not long ago.
