Publius Tacitus Brings Good Points.

For those who don't know, Publius Tacitus is a high ranking US military intelligence person whose identity is known to Colonel Patrick Lang. So, when Publius talks people better listen, since it is a high level real professional speaking. I give here the link to the original by Publius at SST but I would make some comments here too.

Trump's Big Flop In Syria by Publius Tacitus

I am not going to lie, I do not freaking enjoy writing on military and geopolitical issues—I would rather be writing about progressive rock, jazz and discuss architecture, nature and maybe write an article, here and there, on some strategic issues and history. I was denied this pleasure in 2014. I am, however, very encouraged by the fact that there are many American military professionals who are, well, professionals and as such remain true to their skills and knowledge. Doing so, they preserve their professional and human integrity which is not only admirable in itself but becomes increasingly important in the midst of media ignorant bacchanalia. Here is what Publius states in few quotes: 

Do not believe a word you have heard from the Pentagon and the White House about the "success" of the cruise missile strikes on Friday last. A fraud is being perpetrated on the American people and the world at large.

The second issue concerns the imagined success of the U.S. TLAM strike. Before General Mattis (retired) approached the podium Friday night, he knew full well that a significant number of the inbound missiles had been shot down inside Syria. That is why Mattis closed his press conference with the following comment: Based on recent experience, we fully expect a significant disinformation campaign over the coming days by those who have aligned themselves with the Assad regime. Give the old boy his due. He was inoculating the ridiculous operation against legitimate criticism by simply being able to point out that any information contrary to what the Pentagon said was "propaganda." Of course, the enlisted and officers that staff the CAOC know differently. The Russians and Syrians were not lying when they claimed to have downed more than 70 of the U.S., UK and French missiles. I understand the reluctance of the U.S. military leaders to admit the truth about this debacle. It would undermine the confidence of the American people is our supposedly invincible weapon systems and would embarrass and enrage the man child that inhabits the White House. Better to tell him lies and let him believe the fantasy.  

As I stated not for once, I wrote the book on what Publius very ably articulates in his piece.

A friend of mine who has expertise in these matters wrote me: Any air defense engineer with a security clearance that isn't lying through his teeth will admit that Russia's air defense technology surpassed us in the 1950's and we've never been able to catch up. The systems thy have in place surrounding Moscow make our Patriot 3's look like fucking nerf guns.Finally there is the matter of the Russians as a second rate military masquerading as a world power. Another friend who has spoken with military commanders in the CENTCOM AOR told me: All of the knowledgeable aircraft commanders are usually scared shitless about the prospect of a legitimate air-to-air skirmish with a SU-30 or any Russian air superiority fighter.But that is not what blowhards, like retired General Jack Keane, believe:

Publius nails it here:

General Keane is confusing restraint with weakness and incompetence. That is a dangerous and potentially deadly error to make.

But it is not only General Keane—there are armies of internet "warriors" and military faux "experts", most of whom would shit their pants by standing next to 30-mm AAA in action, who want, nay, demand the continuation of the show, now—with thousands military and civilian personnel killed, aircraft shot down, ships sunk. I am disgusted with this kind of armchair "strategists"—ignorant hacks who know not what they are asking for. They are present on both sides. There is one slight problem—real war is nothing like the computer games and the faster this will be understood by most the better it will be for everyone, literally, everyone. 

UPDATE: A little bit of "meat" from Russia's MOD and it is becoming more clear now that Syria's AD worked highly professionally and effectively.

As many as 112 surface-to-air missiles, including 25 Pansir missiles, were used by Syria’s air defense forces to repel the strike delivered by the United States, France and the United Kingdom, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said. "A total of 112 surface-to-air guided missiles were used to repel the strike," he said, adding that 23 out of 25 missiles fired from the Pansir-S1 system had hit their targets.

"Twenty-nine missile were fired from the Buk system, with 24 of them hitting targets. Eleven missiles were fired from the Osa system. Five of them hit the targets. Thirteen missiles were fired from the S-125 system, five hit the targets. Five missiles were fired from the Strela-10 system, three hit the targets, Twenty-one missiles were fired from the Kvadrat system, eleven hit the targets. Eight missiles were fired from the S-200 systems, none hit the targets," he said, adding that such poor performance of the S-200 system could be explained by the fact that it was meant to hit aircraft. Moreover, in his words, a missile fire from this system hit a fighter jet of one of the neighboring countries not long ago.

Some Appeals.

There are few appeals circulating now in US blogosphere and publications. First, is Colonel Pat Lang who I respect deeply despite not always agreeing with him. He doesn't mince his words and is very down to the point in his appeal to Mattis.

I beseech you, sir, to consider the possibility that the supposed chlorine gas attack at Douma, Syria may have been a carefully constructed propaganda fraud on the part of the rebels encircled in Douma.  Such a fraud would have as its purpose the elicitation of exactly the kind of response that we are seeing in the Western media.  The rebels have been defeated in East Gouta Their fighters and families are being evacuated to Idlib Province by air-conditioned bus.   How would it benefit the Syrian government to make such an attack in this situation? I hope that you will determine the exact facts of what occurred at Douma before any action is taken. I recommend that you send someone competent to Syria to make an on the ground investigation.  

I already expressed my deep appreciation of human and professional military integrity of Colonel Lang. The next appeal is by Daniel Larison who, while being moved by noble intentions, still thinks that Washington D.C. could be "reasoned with". 

The prospect of yet another illegal U.S. attack on another government is disturbing for several reasons. First, it makes a mockery of our constitutional system of government and blatantly violates the U.N. Charter. The U.S. no longer respects domestic or international constraints on the use of force, and most of our political leaders have long since surrendered to the idea that the president can initiate hostilities against anyone at any time for virtually any reason. Each new illegal use of force builds on the last one and becomes the normal practice. That’s a disaster for the cause of peace and restraint, and it needs to be opposed vigorously.

I think Larison is a bit too late with recognition of the fact that US Constitution today is nothing more than a fig leaf for a coterie of corrupt political demagogues and ideologists who do not possess a modicum of a statecraft which is required for anyone who gets into the politics of a nuclear superpower. This all is completely gone today from the US—it is literally run by disgruntled, sore loser, middle-school kids who do not understand what they are dealing with. And Larison is very incorrect in his conclusion:

Unlike the attack last year, there is a greater chance this time that Russian and Iranian forces will retaliate against U.S. or U.S.-backed forces. The potential for escalation is greater than it was in the past, and that threatens to drag the U.S. into a much bigger war. The U.S. has no vital interests at stake in Syria that merit taking such a huge risk, and there are no benefits to the U.S. from doing this. Our government is once again contemplating committing acts of war against a state that hasn’t attacked us and doesn’t threaten us or our allies. That makes no sense, and we will come to regret it.   

Such an attack makes a perfect sense for Washington crowd. It is akin to kids getting excited on the 4^th of July while starting a fireworks. That is until the big one explodes and kills them. This, plus a complete ignorance on anything real war related and a childish desire to prove that US can win a war—that is can look cool and mighty. It makes total sense because D.C. has no adults left in it. So, the question is:

                            Will Trump order an attack on Syria?

My take is that he will, because whole contemporary Washington's discourse is all about appearances and how one looks. Giving an impression of "weakness" is a no go among all those draft-dodgers, lawyers, journalists, political "scientists" and military brass good only for fighting in Appropriations, who constitute so called Establishment, or Deep State, or Borg, what have you.  In fact, it is precisely the environment Trump understands perfectly since he was (and possibly remains) a huge part of the American show-business. But in the end, it is all about sour grapes—the West is collapsing and Russia and China are ascending. As I already stated a year ago—the window of "opportunities" is closing. Something should be done about it the logic of the D.C. self-proclaimed "strategists" goes. It is, as I already stated not for once, is a case of Jeanna, from famous Russian power metal stalwarts Aria timeless hit The Rose Street, breaking the clock trying to extend own life. Obviously the only thing she achieves is—she breaks the clock, she cannot break or stop the time. Many in D.C. think that they can, if it requires wrecking the world, they think that Buck Turgidson had a point and that they have a chance. Of course, they don't.

So, at this point we have to wait and see how a "stellar" Trump's national "security" team would decide to drag this country to its end, while wrecking the rest of the remaining world order in the process. As ever brilliant Publius Tacitus noted couple of days ago:

If Trump goes down this road it will not only be the beginning of the end of his Presidency. It could be the end of the United States as a viable political entity.

On a more practical operational note, I, frankly, lost the count of what Russia stuffed Syria with in terms of Air Defense. What was revealed today was that Syria (not Russian contingent there) took the delivery of 40 Pantsir complexes, plus, as was stated before, there is confirmed presence of the unconfirmed number of advanced Buk-M2s, plus some other things of EW and Radar-Optronic nature. The question, however, is: if shit hits the fan, the probability of which is growing, will Russia use Kinzhal. But if the attack comes, and if we are still alive and relatively well after the events which will unfold, the first phase will be repulsing of TLAMs salvo. Let's hope that it will not come to this, but I do not hold much hope for any US Administration because the question in Russian media which circulates for days now is:

                         Are they really that incompetent?

Yes, they are.