"Escalation" around Donbass, Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) already has four open threads on this issue, he provided a good summary of this whole, frankly rather predictable, tempest in a teacup. Here is Andrei's elaboration (part of it).
- The West has already decided that Russia is the aggressor and Banderastan the victim of the Russian aggression. Even if the Ukies launch a massive artillery and armor attack on the LDNR (or even Crimea), the West will claim with a straight face that the evil Russkies attacked the innocent Ukrainians.
- I do not expect any NATO country to actually commit forces to to attack the Russian forces. At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).
- However, the USA is not only weak, it is fantastically incompetent, ignorant and arrogant: a lot of high level western officials have declared that the USA/NATO will not “allow” Russia to threaten or attack the Ukraine. To me, this tells me that there are those who believe that if the US/NATO actually do engage Russian forces Russia will “blink”, and cower down in fear. Clearly, these people have never read a history book.
- I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the command centers which gave this US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.
- The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia. They are missing the key point: Russia cannot and will not retreat further, she won’t meekly declare that the Donbass or Crimea belong to the Nazi regime in Kiev. Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.
It is a good itemization, especially pp.4-5. It is finally becoming a somewhat popular--which is a good sign--tune around at least some media quarters in the US that, as Matt Purple posits: Our Elites Couldn’t ‘Reset’ a Wall Outlet, Let Alone the Global Economy. Yes, not only that--Western elites have no clue on warfare. They really never had one in modern times and that is why they are dangerous. Can you imagine giving monkey a grenade? I doubt Ukies will launch much of anything but, honestly, if they did, especially against Crimea, it would be a fascinating bloodletting with the US leading Ukies to a slaughterhouse. But then again, for people in D.C. one hundred thousand more--one hundred thousand less killed means absolutely nothing because they lost distinction between good and bad long time ago, which is also, as stated above, amplified by a complete lack of the touch with reality especially in military aspect when related to Russia.
Russia confirmed today that:
...it was in high-level contact with the United States about tensions over Ukraine and dismissed fears of a Russian military buildup even as it vowed to respond to new Ukrainian sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden used a first phone call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday to offer "unwavering" support after Western nations and NATO voiced concern over Russian troop movements near Ukraine. There has been a recent spike in violence in Ukraine's eastern Donbass region where Kyiv's troops have battled Russian-backed separatist forces in a conflict it estimates has killed 14,000 people since 2014. "We are in contact with the Americans, this is happening at a high level," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. He said Moscow had rejected as "unfounded" concerns raised by Washington over the situation. He accused Ukraine of failing to implement agreements over the region. "If our American colleagues were concerned about this, it would really help stabilise the situation," he was quoted as saying.
Generally speaking, the job of Russian diplomats at this stage is both simple and near impossible to complete--they need to convince a bunch of ignoramuses from the top of Biden Admin that they better defer to US military, which is better informed and much more aware of Russia's military capability, that in case bunch of neocons and liberal interventionists think that they can unleash war in Europe only--they better think twice, because not only very many US troops in Europe will die, but the war will come to the US proper.
In related news, Marshal Shaposhnikov today completed a launch of 3M14, which, after flying more than 1000 kilometers, hit the target in Khabarovsk Region (in Russian). The frigate should join Russia's Pacific Fleet by the start of this Summer. Meanwhile Russian Baltic Fleet conducts drills of a surface group.