Ah, capitalism is a bitch when you lose in competition.
WASHINGTON — Unable to fly through
Russian airspace because of the war in Ukraine, U.S. airlines are
stepping up a lobbying campaign on Capitol Hill and at the White House
to address what they say is a growing problem: They are losing business
to foreign competitors who can take passengers between the United States
and Asia faster and more cheaply. Effectively
banned from the polar routes that save time and fuel between the United
States and an array of destinations on the other side of the world,
U.S. carriers say they are being forced into an aeronautical version of
Twister to get passengers where they want to go without taking undue
risks. They have altered trans-Pacific
flight plans to ensure they would have somewhere to land in an
emergency, reduced passenger and cargo loads to hold down costs as they
fly longer distances, and put on hold more than a dozen planned new
routes to Mumbai, Tokyo, Seoul and other cities.
Did they try lobbying on Capitol Hill for the remnants of a common sense and a removal of corrupt chickenhawks? No? Well, there you go. They shoulda and woulda while they coulda, but they didna. Now they go traditional way of sore losers of trying to spoil it for everyone else instead of facing the music. Read the whole piece in NYT, it is free, unlike US sanctions on Russia. Cannot wait for Monday and hearing news (possible? who knows?) of a possible BRICS currency. We know it is coming sooner or later. Pop-corn time.
You all know the meaning of this by now, now with a simple crossword, wink, wink.
Wall Street Journal unleashed on unsuspecting "investors" (meaning a speculative capital which destroyed US economy) a marvel of an "analysis" which should be filed under the "No Shit, Duh!" title.
I have news for WSJ's editorial board which, evidently, is packed with Captains, Majors and Generals Obvious--the United States couldn't compete with Russia in this field to start with. I clearly remember all these business "analysts" from all US MSM outlets, more than a year ago, having an acute and irrational outburst of schadenfreude expecting Russia's economy to collapse because of the oil war and oil prices being driven into the ground. I was flabbergasted by a complete lack of self-awareness of those "analysts", because it was clear from the git go that Russia will be just fine and it was the United States which would experience, which it did, a very rough awakening and facing a reality of energy markets where the US had a very weak hand.
U.S. producers reduced investment during the pandemic as demand plunged.
While prices have since recovered to a two-year high, a larger U.S.
retrenchment driven by government and progressive investors is on the
way.
Let's start with two simple facts which were known since... forever:
1. US fracking was never economically viable. But "fossil" energy will be needed for a long time because "alternative energy" cannot provide even a small fraction of the growing demand. It simply can't in this technological paradigm, period.
2. US "anthropogenic climate change" hoax is as American as baseball and apple pie--it is a result of the US being always vulnerable to paranoia and most radical anti-scientific ideas.
It was very easy to predict where the US will progress under these circumstances as well as geopolitical consequences. Yes, guys, this is how competition works: I have what you need, you don't. It was always like that. I know, it is unpleasant to be on the receiving end but we all live with our own limitations and vulnerabilities and we make do as much as we can. Same applies to the nation-states. If those nation-states go bananas and become irrational like the EU which wants to turn "green" by 2050 and plunge hundreds of millions of people into economic misery--let them, let's see how long those cretins will survive before a raging hungry mob with pitch-forks (or AK-47s) will start hunting their asses. You can bet your ass on the fact that Russia and China will be watching this clusterfuck from a distance in total amusement.
So, WSJ laments now that Putin is happy? Well, why not? Russians know how high a price is paid for ideological orthodoxies. West's ideological orthodoxies from institutionalizing a sodomy, sexual deviancy, obverse racism, cultural and moral relativism to pseudo sciences of gender, MMT and MMGW--hey, all ingredients are in place to see the whole goddamn thing implode with catastrophic consequences for Western people. Remarkably, WSJ helped to further this agenda, which, of course, its editorial board would deny. But facts are stubborn thing--WSJ is an utterly globalist rag on the service of the same cabal which for decades promoted crazy economic, geopolitical and moral ideas. So what's the problem? I don't see any. After all let's recall the name of this rag--Wall Street (mind you, not the Main Street) Journal. And that in itself speaks volumes.
A very interesting report on MC-21 by AirInsight. Analysis, however, presents MC-21's performance with Pratt and Whitney engines (even with those it is broadly superior), not with PD-14, which should improve performance even more. As analysis states:
The Report itself is expensive ($ 500) but they still provide the table:
Plus, makes this important conclusion:
The MC-21 is the first of the next generation of narrow-body
aircraft, competing primarily with re-engined models of aircraft that
first entered service 51 and 29 years ago.
It is a crucial distinction since MC-21 is the only fully new and thoroughly contemporary mid-range aircraft on the market, including its latest state-of-the-art composite wing and systems. This adds additional "angle" on the issue of Russian sanctions--nobody likes strong competitors. It is very clear where the arms market goes with Russia "coming out" with a whole new cluster of weapon systems. Now, commercial aviation? There are many unhappy campers out there. This market segment is the juiciest one.
Let's continue a bit of rationalization and reasoning which we started in the previous post with the same title and get back to our global commercial airspace matters. Here is the MC-21 cockpit:
This is how MC-21 or, for that matter, any other commercial aircraft flies. Straight and slow.
For this kind of flying commercial aircraft need all kinds of computerized on-board systems which control all mechanics and engines, which also provide monitoring and representation of the state of on-board systems visually. They also require radar, collision avoidance system, altimeters, navigation (usually inertial navigational complex with various correction systems, GPS, GLONASS Et all) and the list goes on and on this is what Honeywell, plus some Israeli and French avionics companies pride themselves on doing it better than anyone in the world. When speaking about Russian commercial aircraft, however, one should be fully aware of the presence of Western avionics and some other systems not because Russians are so dumb and can not make their own, but primarily because having Western "partners" helps the process of certification and of reaching foreign markets. After all, there is also a reasonable want of many potential customers to deal with avionics, aggregates' and engine packages they got used to. But let us continue:
Here is a standard cockpit of SU-35:
here is more:
This, meanwhile, are SU-35 (and SU-30SM) engines, or rather engine exhausts:
And this is how this damn aircraft flies:
If you want to get the point without watching the whole thing, get to 6:30 mark and try not to drop your jaw to the floor. Avionics of SU-35 presented in the photos above is 100% Russian-made and overwhelmingly, including elemental base, including processors, Russian-designed and produced. So now, let's cut to the chase. Not only modern combat aircraft such as SU-35 can do any commercial aircraft type flying easily (well, without passengers, of course) but they fly in such a way and carry an astonishing array of cutting edge sensors and weapons, that any commercial aircraft avionics and what it can do compares to SU-35 avionics as a horse and buggy compares to the top of the line Ford truck. In other words, try to develop AI based software and then realize it in own produced hardware for all-aspect thrust-vectoring engines. I can tell you immediately, it is much harder than producing pretty much unified and fairly boring avionics package for commercial aircraft.
Here we are coming to this very important juncture at which we have to ask this straight-forward question: if KRET (part of Rostec mammoth corporation) is capable to make avionics which makes SU-35 fly like an alien spaceship while simultaneously using fully integrated sensor and weapons suite which commercial pilots (unless they are former military) have no grasp of, isn't it reasonable to assume that, say, KRET and UAC will have no serious problems removing US (or Western) made avionics from Russian made aircraft, together with 100% Russian designed and made engines, thus removing them from the sanctions which are coming? What sanctions you may ask? Well, the US has the right to prohibit any sales of aircraft to anywhere if they contain more than 10% of US-made parts. And this is the next step Trump Administration will take against Russian airspace.
Russian know it. But once you remove P&W engines and Western avionics and aggregates from MC-21 (and, accidentally, SSJ-100) you get almost fully Russian-made aircraft which will not be affected by sanctions, at least not this way. And here is the trick. Look at PD-14--not a single foreign piece in it. In fact, this engine pushes boundaries of what is possible and promises enormous savings for customers. Some say as high as 17% over any Western analogue. Well, even if it is 10%--it is gigantic in commercial aviation terms. US plane makers know it. Moreover, PD-14 already launched another mini-revolution of sorts in commercial engines design (is it possible that it is somehow connected to Russian combat aviation, wink-wink) and materials. So, make your own conclusion if the makers of avionics and aggregates for SU-35 or SU-57 will be able to replace western parts on commercial jets? I guess it is always harder coming up in complexity than down and that is your answer. But perspective is even more threatening for the end of the next decade once PD-35 and CR-929 go on-line.
If Russian commercial aviation market is large--its loss for Western commercial aircraft manufacturers is painful but survivable, the loss of Chinese market, on the other hand, talk about tectonic shift in commercial aviation and that is what CR-929 will do. Well, that plus I have some difficulty believing that all issues with COMAC 919 will be solved in timely manner (they will be solved eventually) but one way or another it is not real competitor to MC-21, A-320 Neo or B-373 Max 8. So, it's impact will be limited. The reason? China does not have modern engine, Russia does and, in fact, it is being certified as I type this. So, the trend is being set and, considering the fact that DJT doesn't control his own government, there is very little necessity of any kind of cooperation, especially with upcoming November sanctions and, I don't think, Putin really believes Trump anyway. But it was stated many times before--sanctions are good for Russia, well, except for the last vestiges of some so called liberal (in reality criminal) and so called "business" (mostly money making and laundering) circles of Russia who, as I said many times before, should worship Putin who is the only obstacle between this public and lamp posts on which they might be hanged the minute he steps down if they trespass. But that is a separate topic altogether.
