Predictable.

As was expected, Vladimir Putin wasn't impressed. 

Россию, по словам Путина, "просто вынудили" выйти из зерновой сделки: Запад продолжает блокировать ее реализацию в части российского аграрного экспорта, а также, "мягко говоря, обманывал" Москву относительно главной цели соглашений.

Кроме того, отметил президент РФ, Украина использовала гуманитарные коридоры в Черном море "для террористических атак против российских гражданских военных объектов": "Это не может быть терпимым дальше".

Путин опроверг утверждения о подорожании продовольствия из-за выхода России из соглашений: "Очевидно, что прекращение реализации сделки не отразилось на глобальных продовольственных рынках. <...> Цены на зерновые продолжают снижаться, физического недостатка в продовольствии нет".

Вместе с тем Москва "готова рассмотреть возможность реанимировать зерновую сделку", но только после снятия ограничений на собственный аграрный экспорт, отметил российский лидер.

Турция вместе с ООН подготовила "новый пакет предложений" по возобновлению сделки, сообщил Эрдоган. "Верю, что в ближайшее время мы сможем найти решение, которое будет отвечать ожиданиям Турции", - добавил он.

Translation: Russia, according to Putin, was "simply forced" to withdraw from the grain deal: the West continues to block its implementation in terms of Russian agricultural exports, and also, to put it mildly, deceived Moscow about the main goal of the agreements. In addition, the President of the Russian Federation noted that Ukraine used the humanitarian corridors in the Black Sea "for terrorist attacks against Russian civilian military facilities": "This cannot be tolerated any longer." Putin refuted allegations of a rise in food prices due to Russia's withdrawal from the agreements: "Obviously, the termination of the deal did not affect the global food markets. <...> Grain prices continue to decline, there is no physical shortage of food." At the same time, Moscow is “ready to consider the possibility of reviving the grain deal,” but only after the restrictions on its own agricultural exports are lifted, the Russian leader noted. Turkey, together with the UN, has prepared a "new package of proposals" to resume the deal, Erdogan said. "I believe that in the near future we will be able to find a solution that will meet Turkey's expectations," he added.

About highlighted: sure, sure, but only after it will meet Russia's expectations. So, no grain deal "extension" and Putin was explicit explaining why. 

In other news, Mr. Pashinyan works hard to finish off Russian-Armenian relations and this time even Russian Foreign Ministry was forced to react:

"В Москве крайне недовольны последними публичными заявлениями армянского руководства, включая высказывания премьер-министра Армении в интервью итальянской газете La Repubblica и комментарий МИД Армении от 31 августа, расценивают их как неприемлемые по тону и содержанию", — указал собеседник агентства. 

Translation: "Moscow is extremely dissatisfied with the latest public statements of the Armenian leadership, including the statements of the Prime Minister of Armenia in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica and the comment of the Armenian Foreign Ministry on August 31, they regard them as unacceptable in tone and content," the agency's interlocutor said. 

There are many venues through which wide swaths of Armenia's population try to commit suicide--the roles of French and US Armenian diasporas are of special interest here--but it is not an accident that the second largest US Embassy in the world, after Baghdad, is in Yerevan. One may ask what's deal with that, in the country with a population of barely 2.8 million and with virtually no resources. The answer is simple--Armenian diaspora, which is very influential. Most, not all, though, especially many Armenians living in Russia, of Armenian diaspora don't care about Russia and want Armenia fully incorporated into the "Western" fold. 

Russia has a 102nd military base in Gyumri in Armenia and there are still some significant portions of Armenian population who are closely connected to Russia in social, economic, cultural and family senses but Armenian "elites" are generally pro-Western and anti-Russian. That complicates Russian-Armenian relations, especially after the reaction of Russian Armenian diaspora to the war in Nagorny Karabakh and a serious backlash by Russians in Russian social media to that. So, it is complicated and Armenia is infested with Western NGOs which doesn't make things, always complex, any easier. In the end, Pashinyan enjoys a wide support in Armenia and he is a full-blown US asset. 

Of course, one should not forget a complex factor of Armenia's ally, Iran, here, but that is a whole other story altogether. Armenia will be used by the US to sabotage North-South Corridor and any kind of the solution in Caucasus and Moscow understands that and made her position clear on many occasions. Armenians, meanwhile, remain a torn nation spread all over the word with diasporas living anywhere from Syria and France, to US and Russia. Russian Armenian diaspora numbers, by different estimates, the size of the population of Armenia proper and many of Armenians left a profound mark in Russia's history and served historic Russia with honor and dignity.

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

For EU. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is in no position to comment on Türkiye’s relations with other nations, after the president rejected remarks the EU official reportedly made about Russian-Turkish ties. “...Borrell cannot appoint or regulate our relations with Russia. He has neither the quality nor the capacity to make such a decision on these matters,” Erdogan told news agency Anadolu. Speaking to journalists on Thursday on his way back from Turkmenistan, the Turkish president said Borrell’s position is on a par with Ankara's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, which made him unfit to pass judgment. Erdogan was commenting on a letter that Borrell reportedly sent to the European Parliament to express the European Commission’s concerns about continued Turkish-Russian cooperation. The document was covered by the German media group Funke on Sunday.

In diplomatic it means "go fvck yourself, loser". In general, the West's schizophrenia is reaching now grotesque proportions. Vladimir Putin speaking today at Russia's Strategic Development Council meeting stated:

“It’s interesting to observe that, despite the sanctions, over the first nine months of this year, deliveries of basic goods to the EU increased by 1.5 times. As a whole, exports increased by 42%, while the trade surplus was up 2.3 times, to $138 billion.” 

I totally believe this. Because there are many things political regimes in EU and UK cannot do without, without endangering political systems of their nations. Very many of those things are provided by Russia. The US will still overpower those losers and they will continue on the suicide path, but they will try to maneuver somewhat before they either have the US-inspired regime-change or people get cold and hungry, among many other inconveniences, and they grab pitch-forks. As I already stated--I thought the collapse of the Soviet Union was huge--it was--but what we observe today is a collapse of civilization, Western one. 

Meanwhile, the second regiment of strategic hypersonic Avangards will go full combat ready on-line tomorrow (Moscow time), the Commander of RVSN General Karakaev informed Zvezda TV (in Russian). Yesterday, the new regiment of mobile Yars ICBMs also went on-line. Just in case.

The Summit Thing.

Russians soon will have to really hide under the bed in order to avoid being stalked by the US and NATO and being subjected to incessant requests to hold summits of one form or another. If stalking Russians to get the Geneva summit out of them hasn't been enough, now Mr. Stoltenberg wants to hold a meeting of a de facto defunct (since 2014) NATO-Russia Council. 

BRUSSELS, June 7. /TASS/. NATO is currently holding contacts with Russia in order to convene the Russia-NATO Council at the ambassadorial level, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, speaking at the Atlantic Council Monday. "We have a standing invitation for Russia to participate in a meeting, to convene the Russia-NATO Council again. So far, they have not answered," Stoltenberg noted. "We are now in contact with Russia to convene the Russia-NATO Council," he said.

As I always state: to discuss exactly WHAT? NATO, which is the United States and a bunch of its vassals is not going to change and playing a willing side changes absolutely nothing because NATO lied to Russia and its word is worthless. As if giving Stoltenberg a bit of a cold shower, Russia's Foreign Ministry stated today:

MOSCOW, June 7. /TASS/. Sanctions against Russia have been enshrined in the legal acts of Western states and will last forever, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin told the parliamentary hearings in the State Duma (lower house) on Monday."The sanctions regime has always been in place. And it will remain so forever, let us be realistic. Sanctions have been enshrined in many legal acts, in the US and other states, and it is impossible to roll them back," the diplomat stated."All of them are illegitimate, they were slapped under very shaky pretexts, without any proof, but those facts, which are deemed as committed, cannot be rolled back," Pankin noted.The diplomat stressed that Russia would not ask anyone to lift sanctions and would not say sorry for what it is not doing.

So, Mr. Stoltenberg, it is what it is and Russia also will not miraculously stop her both military and economic development and transitioning into the new economic paradigm and increasing her massive military advantage over NATO. All what Russia does, she does in her territory and Russia's red lines will be articulated at Biden-Putin summit (if it goes ahead) and the opinion of some vassals doesn't really count. Plus, Stoltenberg better attend to a much more urgent NATO problems such as this one, because this is the level of military problems NATO is still capable to solve. 

BERLIN (AP) — The German military says it has found a solution for an unusual logistics problem its troops in Afghanistan face: a glut of beer. Defense Ministry spokeswoman Christina Routsi said Monday that a recent decision by the German commander in Afghanistan to ban the consumption of alcohol for security reasons had resulted in a pileup of beer, wine and mixed drinks at Camp Marmal in Mazar-e-Sharif. German soldiers are usually entitled to two cans of beer — or equivalent — per day. Routsi said the military had found a civilian contractor who will take the alcohol back out of the country ahead of the German troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan as the NATO mission in the country ends in the coming months. The German army said the 22,600 liters (almost 6,000 gallons) of alcohol — including almost 60,000 cans of beer — couldn't be sold in Afghanistan due to local religious restrictions, or destroyed for environmental reasons. Proceeds from the German contractor's sale of the beer elsewhere should cover the cost of transporting it out of the country, the army said.

I have to admit, though, that this is a very very German problem. It cannot get any more German than that. 

So, here we are, everyone wants Russia. It is Russia, Russia, Russia all day long and even booboo Zelensky is so hurt and confused because of Biden...well, ignoring him. I don't know what it takes to explain to Ze that his country is a third world shithole which tried to do the most stupid thing in geopolitics--to interject itself into the game of superpowers. The result was totally expected, just ask Poland which now begins to feel a bit of Germany's wrath. One doesn't play (with) big boys and expect to be treated as equal. 

Denmark's environmental and food appeals board has repealed a construction permit for the Baltic Pipe, which will connect Poland's gas market with fields offshore Norway. 

This is how it always worked and will continue to work because in geopolitics some are MORE equal than others. Those who do not like it--they can go and fuck themselves. Now, for some of my readers who love a tough talk and tough actions and want to see Russia going around smashing everyone's heads and thumping her chest with the triumphant screams. This is NOT how power-balance works. Listen to Alexander Mercouris about Turkey and listen attentively. That may explain to some how the political power and influence work. Especially when superpowers are involved. 

So, apart from steady stream of news from Russia regarding the development of a cutting edge weaponry and very interesting economic data, after listening to Alexander, ask yourself a question why Erdogan does what he does and why Stoltenberg wants to talk to Russians, like really-really bad. No, it is not because Russians want to "invade" Europe. Why? The reason is different.

When Even Douglas Macgregor Is Wrong Sometimes.

I have a profound respect for Colonel Douglas Macgregor, whom I count as one of the diamonds in a cesspool of US "elites", but even this exemplary American officer has his flaws. We all do. Yesterday Macgregor published a piece in The American Conservative which opens with a broadside. 

Putin’s Turkish Nightmare. The revived geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey spells trouble for Putin and his allies.

Here, we need to clarify some things immediately, because there is NO "rivalry" between Russia and Turkey for a simple reason that two countries are in a completely different leagues across the whole spectrum of nations' activities ranging from the economy, to military to science to what have you. The United States and Russia are rivals, China and the United States are rivals, France and Germany are latent rivals. Turkey and Russia are not, not even close. Turkey is a regional power with its own set of objectives, grossly embellished by Erdogans' personal ambitions and delusions but to be a rival to someone one needs to have an appropriate geopolitical weight. 

Here is a recent (warning: it is Bloomberg) review of Turkey's economy and here is how it is being assessed by Turks themselves, and keep in mind that the actual "growth" is not a rebound after Covid:

Gross domestic product rose 7% from a year earlier and 1.7% from the fourth quarter. The median of 22 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was for 6.3% growth compared to the same period in 2020. ...There is an “exchange rate illusion” in Turkey’s economic growth data, said Enver Erkan, chief economist at Istanbul-based Tera Yatirim. GDP per capita in U.S. dollar terms has dropped nearly 40% since 2013 to around $7,700 last year, making Turkey’s economic model unsustainable as the growth is mainly driven by government spending and efforts to boost lending, he said. The government encouraged banks to ramp up loans to help businesses and consumers ride out last year’s Covid-19 crisis. The credit boom was coupled with a front-loaded easing cycle. That growth push weakened the currency by 20% last year and kept headline inflation in double digits. The currency lost a further 10% against the dollar in the first quarter, particularly after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the central bank’s hawkish governor Naci Agbal in March. The decision to fire Agbal, who had sought to restore the central bank’s credibility, set off a swift reversal of investor enthusiasm, sending Turkish markets into a nosedive.

Moreover, the growth of a manufacturing sector in Turkey is a manufacturing sector of what used to be called in good ol' times a developing country. As you can see yourself, in the end government spending, services, agriculture with construction constitute a lion share of Turkish GDP. 

And when it comes to "developing" it means only one thing--either heavy licensing in what constitutes the foundation of military-industrial capacity or tier 2 and lower participation on joint projects without technology transfer. Such as F-35 in which Turkey participated as a wing and engine parts manufacturer.  In other words, even when one sees graceful Milgem-class frigates--an indigenous Turkish combat ship, one has to remember that much of these ships innards are not of Turkish origin. 

And this is here where Macgregor begins to lose the plot. He states that:

Ankara’s successful intervention to support Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian control has worsened the relationship. Armenia’s humiliation may shake the resolve of others allied with Moscow.  

Here is where he makes a huge mistake:

1. Starting with Turkey. Turks, as all people of the region, have a propensity for exaggeration of own significance and successes. Turkey was fast to assign the credit for Azerbaijan's success in Nagornyi Karabakh to itself, especially pressing grossly overrated Turkish UAVs' capabilities. In reality, while representatives of Turkish General Staff were present at a planning and execution stage of Azerbaijan's operations, a decisive factor in Azeri success were not Turkish UAVs but Azerbaijan's overwhelming advantage over Armenian forces there in terms of MLRS and artillery, ranging from a devastating Smerch 9A52 systems to good ol' self-propelled guns. This, combined with a decade long training of Azerbaijan's Army specifically for this operation and a flow (worth $4 billion) of advanced Russian weapons, including T-90 tanks, S-300 PMU2 air defense and all kinds of infantry weapons, assured Azerbaijan's success. 

2. Russia from the git go took a deliberate stand-off position on this matter and I will not delve into the list of all reasons for that, but this position was well calculated and, in the long run, served Russia's strategic interests against the background of crumbling Russian-Armenian relations. In other words--Russia tacitly allowed Azerbaijan to take what Azerbaijan counts as it's rightfully own. Needless to say, that President Putin was and remains a very good friend of Aliev's family (including both human and professional closeness with late Geydar Aliev) and has excellent relations with Ilham Aliev. This IS NOT the case with Armenia's leadership and especially Armenian diaspora. 

In other words, Russia doesn't see much danger from Turkey having presence in the region and what are the limits of this presence, I am sure, Putin and Ilham Aliev had a very constructive discussion on this issue. Needless to say, that for all assistance from Sunni Turkey, Azerbaijanis are Shiites and overwhelming majority of them lives in...Iran, in three provinces symptomatically named...Azerbaijan. Iran has an immense influence in Azerbaijan's politics and economy and this factor cannot be discounted against the background of Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation. In other words--it is much more complex than the black and white picture Macgregor draws and there was NO shaking of faith in regards to Nagorny Karabakh, which, incidentally, is not even recognized by Armenia proper. 

As for Turkish dramatically overrated UAVs' operations against what turned out to be a grossly outdated and untrained Artsakh air defense, and Turkey having, in reality, a rather mediocre military force when faced with determined and experienced enemy--Turkish operations' collapse in Idlib in 2020 once Syrians pulled in their good ol' Osas and Buks is an exhibit A of Turkey's military limitations.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:30 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has shot down another Turkish military drone over the Idlib countryside, marking the tenth time in 72 hours that they have downed one of Turkey’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the Turkish drone was identified as an Anka; it was shot down by the Syrian air defenses this evening.

Here is one of the vaunted Bayraktars. Russians themselves have no compaction about bombing the shit out of Turkey's supported anti-Assad formations and, in this respect, with Russia settling in Syria for a very long haul and Assad winning latest elections in Syria, well, too bad for Turkey because, in the end, Russia can always do the tomato and tourist trick and nothing Erdogan can do about it. Putin knows who Erdogan is. So, Macgregor's conclusion, while I understand where he is coming from, that:

If Biden were to ask Putin where the next Sunni Islamist Caliphate will arise, Putin would likely tell him: “Mr. President, it’s already here. It’s called Turkey, my nightmare.”

Is a bit too simplistic and Turkey for Russia is not a rival but possible minor spoiler, not to mention the fact that grandiose aspirations by Turkey usually (historically) have been cut down by the reality of military-political balance in the region which seldom favored Turks no matter what they tried. So aspirations of Erdogan, as Macgregor points out:

According to Erdogan’s critics, Erdogan’s strategic vision for the Turkish nation is to be recognized on the world stage as a global power. This means Turkey must become a Balkan power, a Mediterranean power, a Middle Eastern power, a North African and even limited African power, a Caucasian power, a Central Asian power, a Eurasian power, and especially a Muslim power.

Is a bridge too far in the 21st century, because to become all that Turkey needs to move in the direction opposite to what Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood preach and that runs immediately into the realities of modern industrial economy and the wall of Iran's own interests in the region and Russians know this damn well. That is why they sit above this geopolitical dance and observe, while contemplating what to do next and who to help. After all, Erdogan is mortal and is 67 and has a very nerve-wrecking life. Plus, it is good to have options. Simple as that. 

So, no, Turkey is not Russia's (or Putin's) nightmare, not even close. Psychos in D.C., however, are, because unlike Turks they are non-agreement capable 100% of a time.

Turks Destroyed 8 Pantsirs.

Yes, yes, that is what Turkey declared in Brussels and I think they, out of traditional humbleness, lowered numbers of destroyed S1 Pantsir AD systems dramatically. I think there were at least 25-30 those systems destroyed together with those 3,500 SAA soldiers and, probably, couple battalions of Russian SSOs. In related news, before lunch I was Napoleon, after lunch I became Marcus Aurelius. Turkish baloney and butt-hurt from what they experienced in Idlib is such that they don't see anything wrong with simply making shit up. So much so, that Russia's Ministry of Defense was forced to flatly debunk those fairy tales. In its statement Russian MoD underscored:

"Представленные главе Турецкой Республики оценки боевой эффективности применения ударных БПЛА в провинции Идлиб, якобы сумевших уничтожить восемь сирийских зенитных ракетно-пушечных комплексов "Панцирь", не соответствуют действительности и являются более чем преувеличением"

Translation:  Assessments of combat effectiveness of strike UAVs in Idlib Province, presented to the head of Turkish Republic, alleging the destruction of eight Syrian gun-missile complexes "Pantsir" do not correspond to reality and are more than just exaggeration". 

Truth is, only four S1s have been deployed around Idlib, two were damaged and repaired. Most of SAA's S1s remained deployed around Damascus and didn't take part in operations in Idlib. But never mind, as long as it is stated that it happened, it DID happen in accordance to NATO's combat doctrine which is rigged towards media and brainwashing, not fighting the actual war against competent adversary. The butt-hurt in Turkey is understandable, but it wouldn't be completed without this S-400 soap opera.

ANKARA (Reuters) - The United States has offered to sell Turkey its Patriot missile defense system if Ankara promises not to operate a rival Russian system, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said, in what he called a significant softening in Washington's position. Two Turkish officials told Reuters that Turkey was evaluating the U.S. offer but that Ankara had not changed its plans for the Russian S-400 systems, which it has said it will start to activate next month. In Washington, the Pentagon said that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper had not changed his position on the issue, which was: "Turkey is not going to receive a Patriot battery unless it returns the S-400."

Erdogan was in Brussels to "report" on Turkey's great victory in Idlib. Meanwhile lunatic "Ambassador" Jeffrey was thinking on:

Jeffrey also said they had considered possible responses should Russia and the Syrian government break a ceasefire in Idlib, officials said. He suggested other NATO states could individually or as an alliance provide military support to help Turkey. But he ruled out sending ground troops and said there still needed to be a resolution to the S-400 issue for the security relationship to move forward. "You can forget ground troops. Turkey has demonstrated that it and its opposition forces are more than capable of holding ground on their own," Jeffrey said. "The issue is the situation in the air and it's what we are looking at," he said. Washington did not believe that Russia and Syrian had any interest in a permanent ceasefire in Idlib, he said. "They are out to get a military victory in Syria and our goal is to make it difficult for them to do that," Jeffrey said. "Our goal is...to make them think twice. If they ignore our warnings and preparations and move forward, then we will react as rapidly as possible in consultation with our NATO and European allies on what the package of sanctions and other reactions will be."

Jeffrey is delusional and is very butt-hurt, possibly because of his utter professional and human inadequacy, which is expected from a man with background in management and a member of "National Security" team of W (we all know how "well" that played out) and a burden of "victory" in Vietnam War with which utter irrational hatred of Russians comes naturally and, in fact, is a requirement;  enough to recall another American Vietnam War "hero", late John McCain. Obviously Jeffrey's deal with Syria is not to fight terrorism but to support Al Qaeda (and its many iterations) operations there. In general--anything to not allow Syria (and Russia) to defeat Islamic terrorism there. He even speaks openly about it. Jeffery, an infantry officer in Vietnam, then some CIA "spook", in addition to his "diplomatic" background, is a 74 year old and, obviously, cranky man who does not understand modern warfare and, as is expected from US "experts" in Russia, has no knowledge of real Russia. Nor, obviously, he knows his own country, the United States that is, since he still thinks that the United States is this unstoppable military juggernaut which....lost most of its wars. That is why this senior citizen is so eager to start the war with Russia. There are many like him in all kinds of D.C. institutions. 

Highlighted in yellow is a very good indicator of a depth of a delusion this whole cabal of US "strategists" resides in: sanctions are good for Russia. But as was demonstrated in the last 72 hours, Russia can also "sanction" back and that shakes the bejesus out of not only the US, but global economy. But here is the larger issue: how many still rational and competent people are left out there in the US governing institutions? How many of them have real strategic awareness and I am not talking about Mnuchin suddenly having an urge to talk to Russians on "investments" and "sanctions".  Mnuchin is a bankster who understands only debit and credit, black and red, and when he sees red he (and his ilk) react, in pain. I am talking about people who have any strategic vision based on reality. Whole American geopolitical thought in the last 30 years is a permanent record of one failure after another. US "diplomacy" is a laughing stock of the world, US military, ask Iran. Economically? You all know what is going on. How this all could have gone so wrong, so fast? I have a metaphysical answer for that--exceeding established limit on a number of ass-holes populating governing institutions.  It all comes down, in the end, to how many decent, honorable, honest that is, people are still out there and I'd say not many. In final analysis these are always human choices we make, which count most towards the final outcome. Or, as beloved by me Barnett stated: 

… swift decline in British vigor at home and the failure to exploit the empire were not owing to some inevitable senescent process of history....That cause was a political doctrine.... The doctrine was liberalism, which criticized and finally demolished the traditional conception of the nation-state as a collective organism, a community, and asserted instead the primacy of individual. According to liberal thinking a nation was no more than so many human atoms who happened to live under the same set of laws.... It was Adam Smith who formulated the doctrine of Free Trade, the keystone of liberalism, which was to exercise a long-live and baneful effect on British power.... Adam Smith attacked the traditional “mercantilist” belief that a nation should be generally self-supporting. 

We all will pay one way or another for an expected and predicted and ongoing as I type it collapse of liberalism, it is just that one cannot escape a desire to see some of the most ardent enablers of liberalism, who have their hands soaked in blood, be seen behind bars or in a front of a firing squad. Some of them know today that this is not anymore beyond the realm of possible and will try to light the world on fire, thinking that under the cover of ensuing chaos they can make an escape. But I know for sure now that there are those who keep the score. Just listen about "We can repeat":

Entirely Predicable.

As was expected and predicted, a new truce in Idlib was agreed upon by Russia and Turkey and it couldn't have been otherwise.  

A six-kilometer-wide security corridor is to be established in the area, with the militaries of the two countries given a week to agree all the details. Russian and Turkish troops will also be carrying out joint patrol missions along Idlib’s M-4 highway. The document, signed after the negotiations, underlined that both Moscow and Ankara remained committed to maintaining the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria. Both leaders acknowledged that the conflict in the country has no military solution and that it was up to the Syrians alone to decide the fate of their country. It was also agreed to facilitate efforts to prevent the humanitarian crisis in Idlib, while also creating conditions for the refugees to return to their homes.

I will remind you, all my online buddies and readers, again, through Deng Xiaoping's rephrasing of Clausewitz' dictum: "diplomacy is a continuation of the war by other means". You win on a battlefield, you get more at the diplomatic table, period. SAA in the last couple of weeks, granted with some help from Russia's VKS and SSO, handed Turkey its ass on a platter, showing that Arabs, after all, can do combined arms operations and SAA definitely dispels this long living (and often justified) stereotype that Arabs cannot fight modern war. Syrian Arab Army sure as hell learned a lot and, hopefully, when all this will be over, I cannot imagine how many Syria's heroes and military leaders will have, justly so, monuments erected in their honor. 

Erdogan could not, as some "experts" predicted, "dictate" anything to Putin for a simple reason--Russia has a damn good satellite constellation and SIGINT capabilities and can, and most likely did, point to Erdogan when, how and how many of his troops joined forces with Al-Qaeda outlets, thus also stating not only the obvious fact that Sultan is directly culpable in supporting Islamic Jihad, but also was given a description of what kind of casualties Turkish Army (nobody counts jihadists) will sustain if it continues to do what it did in the last couple of weeks. As I state non-stop for a long-long time, often contradicting even real Russian experts, who, actually MUST know better, Russia's first salvo of stand-off weapons would be enough to completely "switch off" Command and Control structure of a corps size force. Simple as that. All this even before any Russian VKS aircraft get busy blowing the shit out of those who think that they are smarter than everybody else. So, it is good that deescalation was agreed upon, let's see now how Erdogan will deal with the reality of his XXI century version of Ottoman Empire going down in flames. In the end, it is, indeed, only up to Syrians alone to decide what to do with their country.   

Never Jump To Conclusions...

Based on some obvious social media propaganda and misinformation. These past days the ONLY question which realistically was at the center of the shitstorm with Turkey and Erdogan going off hinges was not of Turkey winning anything or dealing "catastrophic" (not really) damage to SAA but how to arrange a face-saving retreat for Erdogan. As was expected, SAA retook Saraqib today (in Russian, TASS), Erdogan suddenly expressed his love for Russia and Iran in Syria by declaring today that Turkey merely seeks her security and in no way aims at Syrian territory and especially not at Russia (in Russian), and, of course, those declarations came about, probably, after Russia, namely Command of Russia's Syrian Group nonchalantly stated that it cannot guarantee safety of Turkish aircraft over Idlib. Anyone needs any comments here?   

Putin-Erdogan meeting will proceed as planned in Moscow on March 5th (I think) and Erdo will have to endure a rather humiliating several hours when he will be read instructions on how to behave. As I said, he could have had a lot, now he will be forced to take what will be given to him. So, here is my advice to all who were making "conclusions" based on Turkish propaganda in social media: learn to be patient. Combined arms operations, especially with limited forces such as those of SAA take time and as any operation they have phases and are characterized by fluid tactical and operational situations. As per Russia, I repeat it again, as I did so many times before--Russia is in Syria not to fight the war for Syrians, it is their responsibility, Russia merely helps, including by providing safety for Bashar Assad's government, which is the only legitimate government in Syria. Simple as that. Now we have to be patient and see what Moscow and Ankara will arrive to on Syria. The process of clearing Idlib from jihadists must continue and it will continue after, most likely, some ad hoc short "truce". 

Fog Of War. Or Schrodinger's Erdogan.

Oh, goodness, Turkey's Defense Minister declared that Turkish Army "annihilated" 300 SAA's soldiers (in Russian). Why not 3,000 remains a mystery to me. Russia officially stated that the so called "observation posts" by Turkish Army are not targeted by either Russian VKS or SAA. Those 33 KIA Turkish soldiers and about the same number of wounded was a result of Turks being "deployed" within humanitarian jihadists rank and file and getting it as a result. Turks, certainly, are free to continue with this MO, but then they might expect even more casualties. Russians are unequivocal:

Damascus has the right to fight back when attacked by terrorists and Moscow is in no position to stop Syrians from doing what the UN Security Council endorsed, Russia’s foreign minister has said after the latest Idlib flare-up. 

As was expected, a shitstorm was unleashed in the analytical community about who, why, what and how will handle this situation.  Let's start with a simple fact: Turkey is attacking a sovereign independent country. Obviously, Erdo being Erdo, that means full of hot air, already stated that:

A member of an expert body advising Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that Ankara is prepared to go to war with Russia after tensions over Syria’s Idlib province escalated over the past 24 hours.Mesut Hakki Casin, who is a member of Turkey’s Security and Foreign Policy Board advising Erdogan, made his comments shortly after 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an airstrike by Russian-backed Syrian government forces in Idlib province. We have fought Russia 16 times in the past, and we will fight it again.The official pointed to Russia’s sizeable Muslim population and claimed that the country "will be shattered from inside” should an armed conflict break out between Moscow and Ankara.

My main concern here is whether this "expert" or Erdo himself looked at the "score" in those 16 "fights with Russia"? A hint--it is heavily not in Turkish favor, to put it mildly. Plus, there are serious misconceptions about Russia's Muslim population, but let's leave it to Turkish "expert's", hm, expertise. The point is, Erdo is not feeling well in his Syria's adventure for a number of operational and strategic reasons and Russia is getting ready to give Turkey more reasons for that--two frigates of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Makarov and Admiral Grigorovich,  are on their way to Mediterranean, to join Admiral Essen and other 3M14 carrying ships there. In other words, Russia makes her intentions to "influence" Turkey-supported jihadists' decisions. Plus, do not forget, there is always this pesky Caspian Flotilla and those Tu-95s and Tu-160s which carry many-many X-101 cruise missiles. So, the signal is clear: Turkey must "behave" or else.  

Nobody in Russia wants the war with Turkey but there is a legal matter involved here, with Turkey being an invader (will omit support for jihadists for the moment) and Turkey can appeal to NATO, to UN or to even Washington State Lottery board, she is in Syria illegally, even if to consider Turkey's legitimate concerns with Kurds. So, Erdo ran himself into the trap and now he has to deal with the situation he helped to escalate. I also do not share such point of view as:  

The threat of a Russia-Turkey-NATO hot war over Idlib is a godsend for US foreign policy.

It is, certainly, not the case because of military-political ramifications of such a war if it happens (hopefully not), because Turkey for Russia always was and remains merely a situational "ally", which, as a matter of fact, stands to lose not just militarily but economically. What also the author of this concept forgets in his rather emotional conclusion...

On the other hand, Moscow, a key ally of the Syrian government, is unlikely to stand by while Turkey insists on invading Syrian territory and defending the various jihadist groups which have wreaked havoc in Syria for close to a decade. Perhaps this is what Donald Trump was hinting at when he recently said he would pass the fight against IS over to Iraq, Syria, Iran and Russia while he focused on maintaining control of oil and resources. The US can sit on the sidelines and watch other nations fight among themselves, while the US concentrates on the spoils of war. The divide-and-conquer strategy of the American empire is still alive and well. Given the risk of a heightened conflict involving a NATO member who holds a significant stock of US nukes, one can only hope that cooler heads will prevail and avert the ignition of such a regional powder keg.

..is that it is precisely Turkey who is THE main destabilizing factor in the region and this alleged "divide-and-conquer" so called "strategy" is good only when not the other superpower is involved, the one which is fully capable of not allowing to "concentrate on spoils of war" (whatever that means) for already grossly overextended and bankrupt Empire, who, in the end, wasn't that effective in fighting jihadist forces (when not supporting them outright) anyway. As per NATO--the only REAL arrangements are possible between US and Russia and NATO here is but a PR front for US presence in Europe. France and Germany's puny attempts to make themselves relevant by trying to "mediate" (that means bite something off for themselves) is merely a diplomatic porn designed to cover own feebleness and a paralyzing fear of Turkey indeed opening the floodgates of refugees to Europe who, together with the United States, IS directly responsible for unleashing hell in Syria and Libya.  In the end, it is the battlefield which only settles the issue. As Deng Xiaoping famously rephrased Clausewitz' dictum: "diplomacy is a continuation of the war by other means". And so it is.  So, it is time for Erdo to decide what chair, or the box, if one wishes, he wants to put himself into, and in what state, politically, he wants to stay in the real world in which, unlike it is the case with Schrodinger' Cat, one cannot be both alive and dead. Not that Erdo is not trying. 

UPDATE: Scott Ritter penned an excellent piece for RT hust now. Here is his conclusion. 

While the US was vocal in its desire to support Turkey at the consultations, NATO is a consensus organization, and the complexities of Turkey’s Syrian adventure, which extend beyond simple Russian involvement to include issues involving the legality of Turkey’s presence inside Syria, and the fact that many of the armed groups Turkey supports in Idlib are designated terrorist organizations, precluded a NATO decision to intervene on Turkey’s behalf. Having failed in its effort to get NATO support in Syria, Turkey is now left with the Hobson’s choice of retreating or doubling down. Neither will end well for Turkey, and both will only further exacerbate that humanitarian disaster taking place in Idlib today.

In other related news.  

Putin and Erdogan MAY meet in Moscow on 5th or 6th of March (in Russian). 

As you can see yourself, Moscow is not very interested in "mediation" by France and Germany, plus Erdo called Moscow this morning anyway. And Erdo's algorithm is so obvious (such as blackmailing cowards in EU for them to press on Russia), that I am beginning to think that Putin, considering Erdo's capital of "trust" and goodwill in Moscow falling with the speed of the Wall Street stock market, may maximum offer some kind (as was done before) a "buffer zone" for Turkey, if that at all. What's the point of making deals with the guy who is not going to honor them? 

Two "No Shit" Moments In A Row.

The first "no shit" moment is when Erdogan figured it out that there is a war in Syria, namely in Idlib (in Russian). What do ya know, and I thought that Idlib was fully engaged in civilian construction of sports arenas, 5 star hotels and autobahns, instead of housing Al-Qaeda related and other terrorist outlets supported by none other than Turkey. Now that SAA got to Idlib and started clearing this Syrian territory from this jihadist filth, Erdo-dude suddenly felt the pain. Of course, he did--his Neo-Ottoman aspirations tell him that removing Assad and biting off a substantial piece of Syria's territory are imperatives, if not, of course, for those nasty Russkies and those Kurds, who those Russkies may suddenly find very instrumental in containing Turkey's expansionist agenda. 

Is Erdogan bluffing preparing for a full blown war in Idlib? Possible, but as a former military I need to consider worst case scenario that he does not and that he will decide to go in full force. Russian VKS already sent the message couple days ago when bombed the shit out of Turkey-supported "freedom fighters" who, accidentally, are now armed with manpads and it will be now a matter of time before some civilian aircraft will be brought down, who knows where. But Erdo, as vocal as ever, understands that he stands to lose a lot if Russia will get involved, and she will get involved, fully on Syria's side in Idlib, because the list of those losses is really large and it is large namely for Turkey--so, some kind of ad hoc arrangement might be worked out, possibly with Friday evening's call between Putin and Erdogan, but it doesn't change the strategic outlook in which jihadists of all colors must be annihilated. This is not negotiable. 

The second "no shit" moment is a piece the Vice President of US National Foreign Trade Council Richard Sawaya penned for The Hill in which he concludes that:

U.S. sanctions, as pressure tactics, demonstrably fail to achieve their intended objectives. To date, Russia’s conduct in Ukraine has not changed. As one observer put it, the sanctions were meant for Moscow but hit Houston. DASKA’s energy provisions would take collateral damage to new heights. For example, DASKA requires U.S. companies to withdraw from any energy project should a Russian entity hold even a minority stake. There are nearly 150 estimated energy projects in more than 50 countries that would be affected. These projects employ thousands of people and play an important role in the energy supply chain in global hydrocarbon markets. Any disruption to the operations abroad would have a domino effect and damage many small- to medium-sized U.S. businesses. 

While repeating same tropes about US "democracy" and Russian "aggression" in Ukraine, Sawaya, nevertheless, arrives to this sad (for the US) assessment:

Another (DASKA provision) would prohibit U.S. companies from engaging in transactions of Russian sovereign debt denominated in rubles, which would effectively stymie any U.S. company operations in Russia.  Though presumably intended to hurt the Russian economy, in fact, the measure would sanction U.S. companies to the benefit of their non-U.S. (read Chinese) competitors. Nearly 3,000 U.S. companies that operate in joint ventures with Russian firms could be forced to exit or shutter operations. More broadly, in the global economy with its complex network of multi-country supply chains, ever increasing U.S. sanctions cause U.S. companies to be regarded as unreliable partners.   

As many Russians repeat ad nauseam: yes, we are culpable in "meddling" in your (US elections), yes, we are dreaming about capturing Ukraine, yes, we are the ones who are responsible for every evil on Earth, please, keep the sanctions on. Russia already reduced her holdings in US Treasuries to a minuscule $9 Billion (as of today). It is obviously clear that Russia doesn't see the United States as any type of partner nor is interested in broader economic relations with it. While many, including Russia's own liberals, made fun of Import Substitution program and predicted its failure in 2014, they are not laughing anymore in 2020 and some are panicking. Enough to recall Siemens turbines affair. It is nearly impossible to explain to political "scientist", stock broker or banker that the nation which produces state-of-the-art weaponry or energy technology will have little trouble developing and producing own high pressure pumps for pipe-lines, liquification equipment or high-power turbines, among many other things. We can see results already today and that means only one thing--continuous shrinkage of imports from the combined West. So when Sawaya says this:

U.S. sanctions, as pressure tactics, demonstrably fail to achieve their intended objectives. To date, Russia’s conduct in Ukraine has not changed. As one observer put it, the sanctions were meant for Moscow but hit Houston. DASKA’s energy provisions would take collateral damage to new heights.

He needs to understand that Russia doesn't care about Houston, nor about "collateral damage" to US economy. Why should Russia care? Russians are keenly aware of the simple fact that there is NOBODY in D.C. to have sensible and productive discussions with. Zero, zilch, nada. Under any circumstances it will be a waste of time and effort. Such an outcome was totally predictable and US political class understood this too late. They really should improve their understanding of the surrounding world. I doubt they will. In fact, opposite is true--as Fred Reed defines it, enstupidation hit an overdrive. 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers last week that Russia is interfering in the 2020 election campaign by aiming to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote and boost President Donald Trump's re-election, a person familiar with the briefing said on Thursday. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity, said Trump's Republican allies on the Democratic-led House Intelligence Committee questioned the assessment presented by officials of the Office of National Intelligence last Thursday. "The Republicans responded as you would expect. They went nuts," said the person. "They questioned the intelligence."

The lights go out in America and this is not a "no shit" moment.  

Picture Speaks Louder Than Words.

This is Putin and Erdogan viewing SU-57 at MAKS-2019 (in Russian). It was announced yesterday that consultations on export version of SU-57s are already in progress. 

Courtesy of TASS.

Together with announcement of the start of the production of the mysterious PAK DA (new generation strategic bomber)--it all fits quite well into "revelation" mode by Russia regarding new weapon systems. I don't know what will the "export" version of SU-57 be, but I assume it will have "reduced" hyper-sonic package compared to domestic version, some "downgrades" to avionics and, possibly, will not have the ability to operate drones, such as the latest Okhotnik (Hunter). As was predicted before, Turkey will be afforded, apart from S-400, the access to export versions of Russia's advanced technologies. Implications and ramifications of this are immense, especially in geopolitical sense. 

UPDATE: don't forget to turn on English CCs. 

Does Russia Really Want To Sell S-400 To Turkey?

No, I get it, selling S-400 to NATO member is both good money and good image. But knowing Erdogan who always tries to play his own game, trying to leverage whatever is handy, I am sure some people in Russia are having a blast just observing this whole bargaining back and forth between Turkey and the United States. Today top military guy for Europe, General Curtis Scaparrotti weighted on that: 

Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, head of U.S. European Command, said Turkey, a NATO member, should reconsider its plan to buy the S-400 from Russia this year or forfeit other future American military aircraft and systems. He said Turkey's use of the Russian surface-to-air missile defense system would be a threat to the F-35. His comments are the latest in a series of warnings the U.S. has made to Turkey over its plans to buy the S-400. The U.S. and other NATO allies have repeatedly complained about the purchase, saying it is not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a security threat. The impending purchase has aggravated already souring relations with Ankara, including tensions over the war in Syria. Scaparrotti said U.S. officials are currently in Turkey explaining the potential consequences of the S-400 purchase. He said his best military advice would be that the U.S. not follow through with the F-35 sale and not work with an ally that's acquiring Russian systems that can threaten one of the American military's most advanced technological capabilities. "It presents a problem to all of our aircraft, but specifically the F-35," he said.

Russians know damn well what Erdogan is doing and they have no illusions whatsoever about the possibility of Erdo doing a radical 180 and then refusing to buy S-400 AD complexes. But here is the catch--Turkey is at civilizational cross-roads. She always was there geographically, but geopolitics wise she is facing a dramatic choice between increasingly degenerating Europe and some little, like you know, global, shift to the East of Turkey where new economic and geopolitical configuration is being driven by Russia and China. Erdogan, as any man of Asia Minor respects power and everyone knows today that Putin is not only powerful, but he is demi-God who is capable to elect and control the President of the United States, while personally killing Skripals and threatening all true (that is American and UK) "democracies" and in general, the guy is almost omnipotent. Erdogan likes this, but the most important question here is F-35. 

No doubt, before failed coup against this very same Erdogan (and there are rumors that demi-God Putin actually helped Erdo in saving his life) there would have been very little chance for any Russian weapon system entering Turkish military mind and praising mantras to F-35 and its allegedly super-pooper technology would have been heard in Turkey everywhere. Today things are slightly more complex. Of course, the United States sells to its allies first of all well-packaged commercial product and only then a weapon system. F-35 is the case in point since behind, sometimes preposterous, claims abaout its capabilities it is rather very expensive mediocre plane. VLO, aka Stealth, today is primarily for the consumption of housewives and fanboys from all kinds of military hardware masturbatory discussion boards, plus for the purpose of scaring the shit out of some cardboard dictators in third or fourth world shithole satrapies and only if those have anything of value to be declared a danger to democracy. Reality is, modern radar and signal processing methods, such as data fusion, and technologies of serious air-defense systems, and S-400, even in its export version, is a damn serious weapon system, basically spelled the end for this comfortable self-deluded paradigm of trading combat capability for a alleged "invisibility" and few kilometers, if that, of reduced range of detection and turned it into exercise in futility against modern integrated AD systems. I mean REAL weapon systems, not some commercial product.

I know Erdo knows this, plus, let's be honest--Turkey will never get F-35 technology transfer from the United States. Russia, hm, that could be an interesting arrangement, especially once one considers where this whole warfare business progresses in the last few years. Erdogan is not stupid, he is shrewd and he will continue to hold on to this bargaining lever for a long time, trying to milk both sides for everything they got, in his mind. But reality is, it is namely the United States which Erdo wants to milk, for now, before he will try to finally orient himself and Turkey somewhere. If he doesn't buy S-400, Russia loses nothing really, those batteries will be utilized elsewhere, but Turkey still will not get technology transfer for F-35 from the US. And here is this little detail. United States increasingly works as a runaway engine and considering who really runs US foreign policy (no, it is not Trump--let's face it, the guy is a real estate developer) there are absolutely no 100% guarantees that Turkey, at some point of time, will not become a possible target herself. One has to seriously consider this when reviewing some really bizarre facts of failed coup against Erdogan in 2016. And of the death of Russian Ambassador same year. F-35 is not a good defensive weapon, especially for the price. But, that is Turkey's conundrum and let her deal with it. I, honestly, do not see Turkey abandoning her NATO commitments but the whole affair is still very interesting to observe and, boy, do I recognize this whole methodology from my visits to so loved by me markets in Baku and elsewhere in Caucasus. 

Meanwhile, Scaparrotti draws this horrible picture of Russia, let the man talk:

The top U.S. military commander in Europe said Thursday that he is worried about the potential for new unrest in the Balkans, where there are signs that Russia is stepping up influence operations as the U.S. has lost focus on the region. “The area I am concerned about today is the Balkans actually,” U.S. European Command’s Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti said. “Russia is at work in the Balkans and we have kind of taken our eye off the area.” Scaparrotti, who testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Russia is posing challenges in several regions. Areas of intense focus for the U.S. and NATO in recent years include the Baltics and Poland, where NATO has deployed more forces in its largest reinforcement since the end of the Cold War.In the Arctic, Russia is building up and could be in a positon to control northern sea transit lanes in a matter of three years, Scaparrotti said.

Surprisingly, he is telling the truth about Russia's Arctic ambitions, while, of course, asking for more-more-more money. But Russia, indeed, does have infrastructure, and, most importantly, largest and most powerful ice-breaker fleet in the world for controlling Arctic. Well, that plus Northern Fleet and other heterogeneous forces. Meanwhile Zvezda already is cutting metal for the third Aframax-class tanker, while building a colossal dry dock. 

Ships are coming, big time.

This Is How Victory For Syria May Look Like.

I do not invent anything new here, I merely follow in the wake of Colonel Lang's post. But this is significant, very significant.

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey will have nothing left to do in the Syrian town of Manbij once "terrorist organizations" leave the area, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday, hours after the Syrian army said it had entered the town. Turkey has threatened an assault on Manbij to drive out the Kurdish YPG militia, which it regards as a terrorist group. Erdogan signaled on Friday that Turkey was not in a hurry to carry out the operation. "In the current situation, we are still supporting the integrity of Syrian soil. These areas belong to Syria. Once the terrorist organizations leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there," Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul. Earlier on Friday, the Syrian army said it had entered Manbij for the first time in years, after the YPG urged Damascus to protect the town from the threat of Turkish attacks.

I can only imagine this taste of a sweet-sweet victory for war-torn Syria for which, finally, there is a light in the end of a tunnel. It is also a good time to wrap this Western-inspired Arab Spring up. Its costs in blood and treasure for Middle East are horrendous, with hundreds of thousands killed, more wounded or maimed, millions of refugees--this must stop. Kurds in Syria will find no better deal around than with Assad and within unified Syria. And yes, US withdrawal will allow to finish off ISIS in the region. While Pentagon generals and neocon cabal in D.C. agonize, it is to the greatest credit of the American (real) public opinion and, in the end, POTUS himself, that: 

The Syria withdrawal affair is a dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in regard to ending the state of permanent war that previous administrations created. Although a solid majority of Americans want to rein in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and Africa, Trump’s national security team is committed to doing the opposite. Trump is now well aware that it is virtually impossible to carry out the foreign policy that he wants without advisors who are committed to the same objective. That means that he must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture. If he can fill key positions with truly dissident figures, the last two years of this term in office could decisively clip the wings of the bureaucrats and generals who have created the permanent war state we find ourselves in today.

Is it finally a time for Trump Coming Alive and draining the swamp of chicken-hawks in D.C. who sacrificed everything there ever was good and noble in America on the altar of greed, dubious loyalties and military adventurism? I, certainly, hope so. I have a very personal interest in this too, you know, if I live to ever see my pension and social security, I dream about getting a small RV and travel American West which I love so much, with family while simultaneously (maybe) writing a fiction novel. This dream may come true only on one condition--United States changing her course in full accordance to Donald Trump's campaign promises which gave so many of us a hope. Syria could be a good start. 

Yes, something like this (used, of course, you can get a good one for around 30Ks):

To sit in a view of Mt.Shasta, like here,

And contemplate (with a cigar and a glass of good bourbon) a human life, trying to find some peace of mind which no money can buy.

Plans Within Plans....

There is a reason I quoted Frank Herber's Dune in the title of this post. Sure, Erdogan arrived to St. Petersburg and  held meeting with Putin. Many general statements were made but nothing changed and it shouldn't. Here is a decent piece of analysis from TASS news agency:

Analysts: Strategic triangle of Russia-Iran-Turkey hardly on agenda.

Fact is, I don't know where did this "triangle" idea come from? Ever Eurasianism-mongering Alexander Dugin went as far as to claim that fates of nations and even of civilizations were being decided in St. Petersburg and that Erdogan-Putin meeting was "historic". Well, it certainly was not and for a simple reason--Turkey needs Russia for her bargaining with EU and US.  True, after the coup attempt and seeing its proxies being obliterated by SAA and Russian Air-Space Forces in Syria, and with economic noose around her neck as a result of reckless downing of Russian SU-24, Turkey needs Russia, but only so far.  Yes, there is a very lucrative deal in the offering--Turkish Stream plus some other economic projects, but Turkey still remains a NATO member and firmly in the grasp, however slightly weakened, of Atlantist structures and she will remain there for a foreseeable future. 

Once all this lofty rhetoric about Russians and Turks bound to be friends and even allies dissipates, the reality remains unchanged--no alliances of any kind are possible between Russia and Turkey. Milking each-other for economic and geopolitical benefits--that is a totally different matter and this is precisely what happened in St. Petersburg. Russia needs a leverage of Turkish Stream to both bypass Ukraine (or whatever it became now) and to improve her position vis-a-vis Europe and this has been, all things considered, achieved. Yes, this is, actually, huge but hardly historic let alone implying any possible alliances or "triangles". After all, Iran is not exactly Russia's friend either and the status of Caspian Sea is still being discussed. Plus Iran is a player in the region and does not always like Russian influence there. For now, what happened in St.Petersburg is mostly economic discussion with hard questions of war in Syria left to be discussed later. I would say--good movement, or, rather, step in the right direction but no more than that.  But there are plans within plans and we may only guess what they are, since the play with Turkey (and Iran) is merely an episode, however important. My guess is that, in the end, the big play is for Europe, the real one, and the only goal here is to save her from herself and those who see her as merely a marketplace. Call it a hunch but, in the end, Russia, like no other, has an experience of saving Europe and paying the price with others taking credit. How it will be done? I wish I did know what Putin does;-)