This Is How Victory For Syria May Look Like.

I do not invent anything new here, I merely follow in the wake of Colonel Lang's post. But this is significant, very significant.

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey will have nothing left to do in the Syrian town of Manbij once "terrorist organizations" leave the area, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday, hours after the Syrian army said it had entered the town. Turkey has threatened an assault on Manbij to drive out the Kurdish YPG militia, which it regards as a terrorist group. Erdogan signaled on Friday that Turkey was not in a hurry to carry out the operation. "In the current situation, we are still supporting the integrity of Syrian soil. These areas belong to Syria. Once the terrorist organizations leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there," Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul. Earlier on Friday, the Syrian army said it had entered Manbij for the first time in years, after the YPG urged Damascus to protect the town from the threat of Turkish attacks.

I can only imagine this taste of a sweet-sweet victory for war-torn Syria for which, finally, there is a light in the end of a tunnel. It is also a good time to wrap this Western-inspired Arab Spring up. Its costs in blood and treasure for Middle East are horrendous, with hundreds of thousands killed, more wounded or maimed, millions of refugees--this must stop. Kurds in Syria will find no better deal around than with Assad and within unified Syria. And yes, US withdrawal will allow to finish off ISIS in the region. While Pentagon generals and neocon cabal in D.C. agonize, it is to the greatest credit of the American (real) public opinion and, in the end, POTUS himself, that: 

The Syria withdrawal affair is a dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in regard to ending the state of permanent war that previous administrations created. Although a solid majority of Americans want to rein in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and Africa, Trump’s national security team is committed to doing the opposite. Trump is now well aware that it is virtually impossible to carry out the foreign policy that he wants without advisors who are committed to the same objective. That means that he must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture. If he can fill key positions with truly dissident figures, the last two years of this term in office could decisively clip the wings of the bureaucrats and generals who have created the permanent war state we find ourselves in today.

Is it finally a time for Trump Coming Alive and draining the swamp of chicken-hawks in D.C. who sacrificed everything there ever was good and noble in America on the altar of greed, dubious loyalties and military adventurism? I, certainly, hope so. I have a very personal interest in this too, you know, if I live to ever see my pension and social security, I dream about getting a small RV and travel American West which I love so much, with family while simultaneously (maybe) writing a fiction novel. This dream may come true only on one condition--United States changing her course in full accordance to Donald Trump's campaign promises which gave so many of us a hope. Syria could be a good start. 

Yes, something like this (used, of course, you can get a good one for around 30Ks):

To sit in a view of Mt.Shasta, like here,

And contemplate (with a cigar and a glass of good bourbon) a human life, trying to find some peace of mind which no money can buy.

ISIS Was Defeated, Alrighty Then.

People much more experienced in ground warfare than me wrote it not for once, albeit I wrote this too, that US position (Al-Tanf and around) is not tenable for a number of major reasons. Plus, R+6 victory over not just ISIS but whole Jihad Internationale became clear some time ago. Now, Trump promises US withdrawal from Syria. 

President Donald Trump will announce that the U.S. will withdraw troops from Syria on Wednesday, two U.S. officials confirm. There is no timeline yet for the pace of the withdrawal, the officials said. There are about 2,000 U.S. troops in eastern Syria advising and assisting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against ISIS. The first U.S. troops arrived in Syria under the Obama administration in October 2015. The original force of 50 U.S. advisers grew to an official level of more than 500, though it had actually grown beyond that figure to approximately 2,000 over the following year.

If true, these are really good news for Syria and really-really bad news for Kurds who may face Erdo-dude's wrath, plus, as usual, experience the sense of betrayal by so many "allies". 

As Bernhard of MoA writes:

With the U.S. moving out there will be a race to take those parts of Syria that the U.S. leaves. Turkey is likely to stick to its invasion plan. The Syrian government must now race to take back the Raqqa dam, the rich agricultural land north of the Euphrates and, most important, the oil and gas field near the Iraqi border which are needed to finance the country. It must also move parts of its army to the northeast Euphrates area to isolate and finally defeat the rest of ISIS that the U.S. seemingly leaves behind.

The deal between Erdogan and Trump is obvious, as is obvious a withdrawal of many Russian troops, with the exception of the contingent in both Khmeimim and Tartus, and a dramatic reduction of sorties by Russian VKS from 100 per day down to 2-4 a week now. The game for post-war "configuration" of Syria starts. There was another event which went almost unnoticed but was highly significant:

“Following the conversation between the Israeli PM & Minister of Defense and Vladimir Putin, senior IDF officers led by the Head of the Operations Directorate, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, will go to Moscow tomorrow.”Advertisement“During the day-long visit, the delegation will brief their Russian counterparts on Operation Northern Shield and other operational issues,” the tweet concluded.

As great Ray Charles sang: everybody doin' the mess around. But inevitable question arises: who won? Syria defended her independence and that is what matters the most now. Russia, who contributed mightily to Syrian victory certainly benefits greatly too, both geopolitics and reputation-wise, Iran, however, will have to limit its freedom of actions in Syria which will be contingent on Russian-Israeli arrangements and this is the work in progress, granted greatly augmented by S-300 and S-400 complexes at a disposal of a greatly improved Syrian Air Defense. I am sure Syrian Arab AD professionals such as Akhmed Petrov, Mustafa Sidorov and Hafez Ivanov approve. But what was projected in 2015 by many, once Russia got involved in the fight against terrorist armies in Syria, she brought with her, inevitably, once the outcome became obvious, a massive geopolitical influence and earned a position of a primary broker in the Middle East. A significance of this is difficult to overstate--it has massive global ramifications. Behind that is Russia's military and economic power. 

What's next? The remnants of ISIS (and other unicorns) will move and join earlier arrivals of Jihadists from Syria to Afghanistan where the US will try to play another act of a Big Game against Russia. Maybe, China.  But we will see how the US will stick to its (now it was articulated) 60 to 100 days timeline, with US State Department "operatives" to be withdrawn within 24 hours. As I said, we'll see. Now, will Kurds, in a face of Turkey's military action against them, turn their sights to Damascus and Moscow for help? If they are not stupid, they will. You can not bargain with Erdogan, you can only move him into desirable position and then squeeze things from him. Meanwhile, Trump declared US victory over ISIS:

"We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency,"

And that too was expected. Of course, who else but the US. Russians got used to this by now. After all, the US also defeated Hitler, if you know what I mean;) meanwhile, in a fine tradition of The Family Guy expressing the state of the affairs with someone else' art, enjoy: