"Experts".

Kyle Mizokami, who "blessed" many of us at some point of time with his "expert" opinions while writing for tabloid The National Interest, does it again. This time in Popular Mechanics. He, obviously, doesn't get, which is expected from the guy with some funny background in some "security", that the main issue are not some "hyper-sonic" weapons related to a rather bizarre concept of Prompt Global Strike but a completely different fruit altogether.

As the Union of Concerned Scientists points out, hypersonic weapons traveling at Mach 5-plus experience a whole new level of heat buildup. While a ballistic missile warhead might spend only seconds exposed to air friction, hypersonic weapons experience air friction throughout their entire flight. Chemical reactions with the surrounding air even create a plasma around the hypersonic weapon, which can interfere with the object’s ability to reference GPS or receive outside course correction commands. That’s not all. Hypersonic travel is so brutal that an object traveling at such speeds slowly tears itself apart during flight as the speed magnifies heat, wind, and other environmental factors. This gradually alters a hypersonic weapon’s flight dynamics, making accuracy an increasingly difficult problem.

Based on that triviality, he concludes, that hypersonic weapons "are not accurate". There is one issue, though, with this whole "expert" opinion--not only those hypersonic weapons are very accurate and have confirmed their accuracy, but are already deployed on a combat duty. So, what's the problem then? The problem is that Mizokami writes about hypersonic gliders which in Russia are known as fully combat ready Avangard system and which the United States tried to create (still tries) under different programs. The fact that, as is now traditional, Mizokami has no idea what he is writing about is mentioning of GPS. Sure. But Mizokami, he is an "expert" after all, must know that both in ballistics and hypersonic weapons (call it a hunch) one of the main correction channels is optronic one, including, but not limited to, capability to get celestial correction, as well as final capture (lock) of the target. But even this is not the main point. The main point is THIS:

WASHINGTON — In a move with sweeping consequences for the U.S. Navy’s battle force, the service is canceling plans to add 10 years to the expected service lives of its stalwart destroyer fleet, a cost-savings measure that would almost certainly hamper plans to grow the size of the fleet. In written testimony submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Navy’s Assistant Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition James Geurts said performing service life extensions on Burkes designed to bring them up from 35-year hull lives to 45 years was not cost-effective.

One may ask a question--WHY? It is a good question and part of the answer to this question is undeniably fiscal. The United States realistically is bankrupt, while its technology, even a good one as those handsome Arleigh Burke-class DDGs, is insanely expensive. This is to put it politely. But the other huge part of the answer is in this passage:

Bryan Clark, a retired submarine officer and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said the cuts were a necessary step. Clark recently authored a study with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments that called for canceling the DDG service life extensions. “It’s crazy to throw good money after bad for a bunch of ships you say you don’t need,” Clark said. “I think the Navy is coming to grips with the fiscal realities; the unsustainable nature of their current plan; and the recognition it is going to have a need for fewer large surface combatants in the future and needs to husband its resources to build a larger fleet of smaller surface combatants. Those are going to be the bulk of the distributed force they intend to have.”

Ah, that is much-much warmer. The reason for that is a simple fact that large and expensive surface combatants are not survivable in the modern naval combat, unless they have weapon systems which can fight REAL hypersonic weapons such as fully combat ready and deployed Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon or even nearing M=5 X-32 anti-shipping missiles. That is the real hypersonic threat, not those exotic Avangard gliders which merely exist to forestall the appearance in the future of similar systems in the United States and, if it ever materializes (I doubt it, but who knows) some sort of strategic anti-missile system. Unlike Avangard, which is a nuclear deterrent, another one in Russia's arsenal, Kinzhal, X-32 and Zircon are actual weapons designed specifically to fulfill a classic Sea Denial (or, if one wants an exercise in Pentagonese from me--Battle Space Denial) in both conventional or nuclear variants. They, not the Avangard, are the weapons which, being tactical-operational ones, achieved already a strategic and even doctrinal effect and these weapons are extremely precise. United States knows that. Liana, as Shoigu reported recently, namely last Peon NKS is nearing completion (in Russian), that's what is going to complete creation of Liana, which will (already does) provide detection, tracking and targeting for hypersonic and supersonic weapons against any targets.  

Same way as creation of modern rifles and machine guns forced infantry to abandon linear tactics and reduce its battlefield "footprint" by spreading (distributing) itself over distance, inevitably same distribution over area, including reduction in size and, inevitably, tightest control of emissions is one of the ways for surface combatants to increase their chances of survival against weapons which cannot be stopped and will not be stopped for some fairly long time by the US Navy. This is why, the United States lacking those capabilities, is destroying START treaty by demanding to include in it such weapon as Kinzhal. US also increasingly nuclearizes its own posture precisely because it lacks those conventional capabilities. Russia was ready to talk about Avangard and even offered a "discussion" on Kinzhal, but all those "discussions" today come with many strings attached and price to be paid, and Russia, certainly, is not discussing Zircon.  The United States is not ready to pay this price. This is the point Mizokami misses when discussing hypersonic gliders, which are not even that important against the background of a real RMA which completely changed power balance globally. 

In related news, it will be Severodvinsk, not Kazan, which was initially planned, to launch Zircon soon (in Russian), while Admiral Gorshkov will continue testing of this weapon this year. Several launches are announced. Zirconization of the Russian Navy proceeds apace. Well, that, plus global de-petrodollarization. We are at the threshold of the brave new world, or should I say: Brave New World? No, not Huxley's novel, but Iron Maiden's album, wink-wink;) Judging by modern day "experts" this future seems assured for us and it will require a lot of bravery to face it. 

Severodvinsk

Some News For Tom Rogan.

Tom Rogan of Washington Examiner is a typical product of Western so called humanities "education" (that means no education or applicable skills), who, quite expectedly ended up as a "political journalist"--a euphemism for people who otherwise wouldn't be employable in any serious capacity in any serious field. He has some BS (yes, this abbreviation seems proper in this case) degree in War Studies--an eclectic mix of military-related non-operational and non-technological courses and as a result parading himself a complete fool and ignoramus. 

Tom Rogan is hurt, badly. He needs to vent his (negative) emotions by means of some pseudo-strategic and pseudo-technological psychobabble in his piece in Washington Examiner. He laments:

Russia retains growing capability in boutique war-fighting areas. That said, Russian President Vladimir Putin's newest missile system is designed to grab American attention far more than it is to advance Russia's nuclear destructive capability.I note this in light of Russia's apparently successful Avangard hypersonic weapons test on Wednesday. The Avangard is a hypersonic warhead re-entry vehicle that is designed to outpace and outmaneuver U.S. missile defense systems. Announcing that the Avangard will now be deployed with frontline units, Putin pledged that U.S. missile defense systems are now impotent. That's because the Avangard would supposedly allow nuclear warhead re-entry vehicles to escape any kind of U.S. interceptor vehicle. The extension of Putin's confidence is that Russia can now match or overmatch the U.S. in a full-scale nuclear conflict. 

A term "boutique" by Rogan is a very good indicator of Rogan's irritation, most likely with his own ignorance, because should  have Rogan had a real education in military, which includes studying a whole spectrum of extremely complex precise science and technological disciplines (many courses with Top Secret and above classifications) and the way those translate into tactics, operational art, strategy and doctrinal development, he would have known that hyper-sonic weapons far from being boutique are fast, and inevitably, becoming a mainstay of modern warfare and are specifically designed and employed to defeat legacy systems which 20+ years ago were declared, wrongly, a foundation of a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). 

There is some mentioning in Rogan's background of some study of "military history" and if he really studied it, however on a pop-culture level, he should have known the great Briton, when Great Britain was still a respected power, not a joke it is today,  Arnold Toynbee's dictum:

“In our human military history the analogue of the biological competition between the tiny soft-furred Mammal and the massive armored Reptile is the saga of the duel between David and Goliath; and if take this legendary Syriac combat as our starting point, we shall find the same drama acted and re-performed in a continuous series of matches between new fangled and old-fashioned military techniques.”

But judging by today's level of education of Western "elites" I wouldn't expect knowledge from them, including in the field of military history, which long ago turned in the West into a field of competing fairy tale narratives. Many people (yours truly included) warned about new emerging paradigm in weaponry for years with Avangard being just one of many of them capable to bypass any existing and perspective defenses thus dramatically altering both geopolitical and military balance globally. But, of course, those who dared to point out the passing of the age of aircraft-carriers, "Stealth" as a panacea, or of, in general, Western outdated view on the warfare were ignored, mocked and laughed at. Well, here we are today. But Rogan doesn't stop here, he continues to parade his complete detachment from military reality:

But Putin is only half right. While the Avangard is an impressive program that outmatches any hypersonic system in the U.S. military, Russian nuclear targeting, logistics, and strike capabilities remain inferior to America's (although the targeting element is improving). That's largely because Russian fleet ballistic missile submarines are too loud, Russian strategic bomber aircraft are too old, and Russian military professionalism is too unpredictable. In turn, the U.S. would likely be victorious in a nuclear war with Russia, even if the costs of that war to the U.S. civilian population would be utterly horrific.  

I don't know who Rogan talks to on such issues, but he obviously has no idea what targeting is and how it is provided. If he talks about, I assume, Circular Error Probable (CEP) of Russia's newest strategic weapons he should know that latest of them are very competitive; in fact latest missiles, such as RS-28 Sarmat, provide accuracy which is vastly superior to US main SLBM Trident II, it is 10 meters against 90 respectively. This is what called a full counter-force capability. But, of course, Rogan never heard about it. He obviously doesn't get another crucial fact that Russia solved issues of control (comm, correction, updates, target acquisition) for a whole host of hyper-sonic weapons, be it said strategic Avangard or 3M22 Zircon, or Kinzhal. This is a rather overwhelming proof of a great technological superiority in what Rogan defines as "nuclear targeting, logistics". But he doesn't stop here and continues to throw tantrum by simply inventing things--a defining feature of modern, still residing in a tender teenage phase, British and US "elites". 

Rogan goes for jugular and provides an astonishingly stupid bravado:

1. That's largely because Russian fleet ballistic missile submarines are too loud (c). Obviously it will be difficult to explain to our "expert" Rogan what is hydrology and how sound propagates depending on the  Diagram of the Vertical Propagation Speed of Sound in Water (in Russian it is VRSZ). This may have explained to Rogan how Soviet submarines did some really incredible things in 1970s in the times when it was universally agreed upon that they were inferior in terms of quieting to US subs. Well, it is 2018. But let us remind Mr.Rogan what Norman Polmar and Jurien Noot, both top notch naval analysts, thought about Soviet submarines in 1990s.

Polmar's and Noot's predictions panned out completely--the fleet of Russian strategic missile submarines be it good ol' Delta IVs, let alone Borey-class SSBNs are not only on par but superior to NATO SSBNs in terms of quieting. But it will take a really long time to explain to Tom Rogan some things related to operations of strategic missile submarines and the way they are protected. 

2. Russian military professionalism is too unpredictable.(c) Unlike Rogan who never served a day in any position where decisions have consequences for many people, I did, I also knew personally and was privileged to study in my naval academy under command of its superintendent Vice-Admiral Arkhipov, a man universally credited with preventing a nuclear war between USSR and the US. Sure, so much "unpredictable" (whatever that means) about Russian "professionalism", that it is Russia who is today responsible for keeping the world from sliding into the global war thanks to delusions and incompetence of Western elites who are on the same level of incompetence in military affairs as Rogan is. 

3. Discussion of a sheer idiocy of Rogan's statement on Russian strategic bombers is a waste of time. 

The rest of his piece is a butt-hurt lament and continuation of inventing bizarre things which are not even there, but the fact that this boy even decides to discuss American "victory" in the nuclear exchange with Russia is another, tangible, proof of a complete corruption and incompetence of Anglo-American media, who are responsible for fanning the flames of anti-Russian hysteria in the West, the likes which history simply has no record of, other than Nazi Germany dehumanizing Soviet people prior to operation Barbarossa unfolding in June of 1941. But I am sure they taught this in Rogan's "military history" classes, together with theory of operations, modern sensors, operational art and physical and mathematical principles on which modern weapons operate.  But, seriously, Tom Rogan, being out of his depth completely, should really find himself a more appropriate for his level employment in some local newspaper editing obituaries and For Sale section. Or, maybe dedicate himself to a career of Traffic Accidents lawyer, after all, he did obtain degree in law--I think he should try practice it and leave military and geopolitical analysis to real professionals. 

And She Huffs and Puffs.

In a continuous demonstration of US "elites" getting dumber with each passing minute, another former lawyer, TV reporter and, later, US Senator turned "diplomat"  comes out of the closet of mentally deranged and promises to bomb Russia. I kid you not. 

The US ambassador to Nato has warned Russia that if it does not halt the development of a new cruise missile in violation of a treaty between the countries, the US will “take out” the missile.

Kay Bailey Hutchison was speaking to reporters about a longstanding issue of contention, a Russian ground-launched cruise missile which Washington says breaks the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

Alrighty then, it seems they do have a contest on "dumb and dumber", with one cabinet member offering couple days ago to impose a sea blockade on Russia, now this. She went further though. Considering the fact that a lot of missile technologies R&D are done in and around Moscow "taking them out", considering a rather mediocre performances and ranges of current US TLAMs (not to mention the fact of very impressive air and missile defense around Moscow), the only way Kay Bailey Hutchinson will be able to have any chance on "taking out" Russian missiles will be to attack Moscow with nukes. That will require a substantial number of nukes. Of course, Russians in response will have no inhibitions of well... you know what. 

This whole fuss, mind you, is about the weapons which US initially labeled as myth. Morons in Washington Times go even further:

The new, nuclear-powered cruise missile was one of several advanced weapons Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled during a March press conference, designed to showcase the former Soviet Union’s military prowess

This whole "former Soviet Union" Freudian slip is very demonstrative of the intellectual "level" of people who formulate policies in D.C. and who are, for the most part, utterly unqualified for even basic mental and menial tasks but what do ya know--here we are. 

Desperation coming out of D.C. is palpable, apart from parading the US politics as a cesspool that it is around the world, globalists desperately need some victories, but those are very hard to come by and the swamp is hysterical. As I already stated, what happened on March 1st this year, with Putin's address to Federal Assembly was a complete reformatting of the world order with the tools which are simply beyond the reach of the United States. To counter them the US will have to spend enormous resources which she doesn't have. Now, Hutchinson wants to take Russian missiles out. Does she also want to take Brussels out, or Dallas? That is very easy to do, moreover, Russia can do it without any nukes, thus letting Brussels' civilians live but NATO HQs, certainly, can be dealt with. After all, something like M=20 hypersonic glider Avangard can deal with the issue in purely conventional way.  After all, Avangard is long past R&D stage and is actually deployed on full combat duty. 

The level of recklessness, incompetence and immaturity of current Washington is stunning. It is a collection of spoiled teenagers (despite sometimes advanced ages) who are absolutely unqualified to run such a complex country as the US and they continue to spoil for fight without understanding consequences for themselves. The fact that they don't give a damn about majority of Americans (aka Deplorables) is now well established. So, where does it leave us? It is a complex issue but as the events in Syria testify to, with Russia now really upgrading Air Defenses there, and US fate in Syria being sealed,  I can only forecast for you an increasing number of cognitive dissonances in coming weeks. And yes, Washington has no real answer to any of them. Well, except for that (Yvonne Lorenzo sent me this):

The Last Jedi accusation comes in a new paper by Morton Bay, a Research Fellow at the University of Southern California (George Lucas' alma mater). Bay analyzed all tweets sent directly to Last Jedi director Rian Johnson over a seven month period after the movie's release. 

His conclusion? More than 50 percent of the negative tweets aimed at Johnson came from "bots, trolls/sock puppets or political activists using the debate to propagate messages supporting extreme right-wing causes and the discrimination of gender, race or sexuality," Bay writes. "A number of these users appear to be Russian trolls."

So, next time you have plumbing broken in your kitchen, know--these are Russians who did it and they need to be "taken out".

UPDATE: Ah, good. Not perfect but good. Let's say--better.

I was not talking about preemptively striking Russia. My point: Russia needs to return to INF Treaty compliance or we will need to match its capabilities to protect US & NATO interests. The current situation, with  Russia in blatant violation, is untenable. 

As per INF Treaty and technologies tied to it--it is the topic for a separate discussion. It is important discussion and it has to be held but there will be no repetition of the "Soviet Union 1.0" willfully surrendering its legitimate national interests and extremely sensitive military technological advantages. In related news--please, try to express yourself clearly next time. Russians do not threaten the US nor like when being threatened.