Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Paul Craig Roberts' Interesting Piece.

I liked PCR's new piece on American Civil War, despite the fact that I disagree that it was NOT a Civil War--it was by all measures of nationality defined primarily for centuries as ethnicity-culture. Yet, it still caught my attention in a sense that United States was a very different country then and people did view themselves differently governance-wise, with states being a much larger players then than they are today.
I know this feeling when "new" history is written by amateurs with ideological agenda, not desire to seek the truth. In this piece Paul Craig Roberts nails it and exposes utter lies by the author. It is about identity politics and about Orwellian reality and it has nothing to do with real history. United States is becoming more and more the nation with unpredictable past. Soviet Union and Russia paid dearly for allowing demagogues and pseudo-historians, many of them being direct operations of influence assets, to "write" Russia's history of the 20th century. Only now Russia finally begins to deal with this baggage of ideological anti-Russian BS perpetuated under the guise of the "fight against communism". The United States seems to be hell bent on repeating this story in regards to own Civil War history, which is a complex history with very many shades of grey in it. 

As late Alexander Zinoviev pointed out, after seeing Russia's catastrophe in 1990s, "we aimed at communism but hit Russia." Same can be applied today to all those so called lefty "intellectuals"--they aim at, allegedly, racism, they will hit America. In fact, the destruction only accelerates--those people have no clue what they are in for. As per real history and what drives it--indeed, who needs facts when they contradict the narrative. It is important to address them since the United States, for all of her major faults and crimes in 20th and 21st centuries, is not the country which can be simply dissolved. Using false narratives to widen already huge split in the society is not the way to address injustices and grievances, many of them contrived, of the past. I will conclude with PCR's conclusion:
It would have been better for the South to say that secession was based on the North’s exploitation of the South. If Karl Marx had published Vol. 1 of Capital in 1857 instead of 1867, the South would have had a popular basis for its exploitation case. But the southern states could not see into the future. The southern politicians did not know that whites would become self-hating people who would empower black Americans and illegal immigrants as victims of white people and misuse southern secession arguments as proof of white racism. The British today have made the identical mistake as the South made by trying to buy their way out of the European Union instead of just leaving on the grounds that membership is a violation of British sovereignty and law accountable to British citizens. Government works to expand centralized control. Lincoln succeeded in shattering the 10th Amendment’s limit on central power. The real achievement of the War of Northern Aggression was to centralize power over the American people. All of them.   

Pot Calling The Kettle.

By now no one should be surprised with the trade wars waged by Trump Administration on anyone. In many respects Trump's approach to international relations and trade is reminiscent of chaotic convulsions of the seriously injured ER patient and should not be treated as thought-out strategy. As I stated not for once--there is none. So, yet again threats and sour grapes:
What this piece forgot to mention, of course, is a symptomatic US reaction, which seeks to mitigate the effect of 800-pound gorilla in the room--a major FUBAR by Boeing with 737 Max. It is all about Boeing and Airbus:
No matter how one wants to spin this whole situation but there is no doubt whatsoever about Airbus benefiting from 737Max situation which has been, as bad as it was with so many human lives lost in two crashes, exacerbated by inept behavior of Boeing's PR people who dragged the issue for too long to have a sensible recovery--instead of admitting problem with 737 Max and rushing to fix it with maximum publicity, Boeing got embroiled in the PR disaster which IS having serious ramifications for Boeing's main money-maker, no matter how one tries to spin it. This is not to speak of those proverbial "subsidies". It is just the matter of perception and of newspeak--Boeing is also "subsidized" by government contracts. Nothing is wrong with that. So this whole "subsidies" thing is nothing more than a PR BS for consumption of free trade fundamentalists. US accusing Airbus of subsidies is akin to pot calling the kettle (black). Boeing should recall its "win" over Airbus.

Needless to say, Boeing commercial aircraft are main, together with cars and semi-conductors, United States global hi-tech industrial export. It is also most prestigious and image-supporting article of US economic clout. Now it suffered a major blow and Trump decided to deal with the issue in the best traditions of New York real estate shyster. Obviously, global community does not operate on such principles and Washington is getting messages about that with increasing frequency. Enter Russia. 
Could Russia offer Turkey SU-57 fighter? Possible. Erdogan says Turkey would love to have S-500 in the end. So, who knows what Putin and Erdogan discussed behind closed doors but it is clear that even S-400 can close skies over Turkey for any contingency, including Ankara or Istanbul being bombed by Turkey's very own allies from NATO. This issue, with Turkey's S-400 purchase, however is just one of many other gigantic irritants for the United States, be that Egypt's purchase of SU-35s, US sanctions, sure as hell, will follow, or India, apart from buying those pesky S-400, adding today additional batch of T-90 tanks, to already contracted 464 units (in Russian). So much for Russia being isolated. But that is the whole point: Trump and his advisers act as if the United States is an industrial powerhouse it used to be in the immediate post-WW II period. These United States do not exist anymore and are gone for good. Even the United States of 1990s are not here anymore. Trump may start with getting an accurate assessment of American economy, real economy that is, and figuring out how come that the United States is the largest importer of finished goods in the world--$2.1 trillion

But, of course, there is a political downside to all these trade wars--people around the world are not stupid and they see these convulsions, erratic behavior and threats from the US as a sign of weakness and they are absolutely correct. Tariffs and trade wars are not going to help the US out of her deep economic hole, but it seems that Trump doesn't understand this, as well as the process of the United States declining into geopolitical irrelevance in a face of the fait accompli of multi-polarity and Eurasia going her own way in development in which the United States has only two options: join or try to sabotage it and we all know where it is going so far. It may change but not till present US "elites" are in power. Do they even know where they are today economically and geopolitically? Some of them surely do know. But even those who know--they have no ability, intellect and passion to steer America in the right direction for the sake of majority of her people. And so the bullying, threatening, hand twisting, sanctioning continues and will continue with less and less effect. The main issue today is to prevent, once those in power in the US understand completely that their gig is up, a global war which the US may initiate as the last resort. I guess, and I only guess, that Putin didn't say the last word on newest weapons. Something tells me that the season of surprises is only at the very beginning.   

Friday, April 5, 2019

Irina Alksnis Hits It Out Of The Ballpark.

Notable Russian journalist Irina Alksnis wrote a wonderful metaphysical piece on the fate of superpowers. I don't have time to translate it all but, apart from really universal perspective on the existence of real superpowers, she delivers both moral and, in a sense, sympathetic response to the the fate of the United States. I highly recommend, even if using crude Google Translate which will most likely degrade a wonderful emotional message of this piece, to read it by Americans and others. I will translate just conclusion:
Однако чтобы услышать эти немудреные советы – и тем более последовать им – Соединенным Штатам надо остановиться, хотя бы на мгновение, и замолчать. Прекратить сотрясать воздух заявлениями, требованиями и угрозами, которые выглядят то странными, то откровенно смешными из-за все более явной неспособности сделать их реальностью.А вот именно этого они, похоже, сделать никак не могут. В результате продолжается бесконечная громкоговорящая карусель: Москва, Асад должен уйти! Русские, мы накажем вас за защиту Мадуро! Россия, мы обеспечим свободу мореходства в Керченском проливе!А самое обидное для американцев, что только Россия может их понять. Потому мы помним боль, стоящую за этими словами.
Translation: However, to hear this simple advice--not to mention  following it--the United States need to stop, at least for an instance, and silence themselves. To stop shaking air with statements, declarations, demands, and threats, which come across as either strange, or outright silly because of their obvious inability to ever become a reality. But it is precisely, it seems, what the US is not capable of doing. As a result--the continuation of never-ending declaratory carousel: Moscow, Assad must go! Russians, we will provide for freedom of navigation in Kerch Strait! Russians, we will punish you for support of Maduro. But the most insulting for Americans is that only Russia can understand them. Because we remember the pain behind those words. 

I always said--genuine superpowers move in their own world and they have their very own, unique, complexes and "disabilities" only other superpowers can understand, even when being enemies. Irina Alksnis completely and masterfully conveyed this in her article.   

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Some Signs Of Life or Just Another Ploy?

Fact is, people like Tulsi Gabbard and Daniel Larison should be credited with this: 
The US House of Representatives has voted in favor of ending US involvement in the war in Yemen, but the bill is expected to be vetoed by President Donald Trump as the White House cites “serious constitutional concerns.”The House voted 247-175 in favor of the resolution to direct Trump to end US military involvement in the war within 30 days and to end support for the Saudi-led coalition that it has been backing.
Trump will veto this most likely and then there is another small twist to all that:
Congress is “no longer going to ignore its constitutional obligations when it comes to foreign policy,” said Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, adding that the war in Yemen, now in its fifth year, “demands moral leadership.”
My issue is this:
Article I of the Constitution enumerates several of Congress’s foreign affairs powers, including those to “regulate commerce with foreign nations,” “declare war,” “raise and support armies,” “provide and maintain a navy,” and “make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces.” The Constitution also makes two of the president’s foreign affairs powers—making treaties and appointing diplomats—dependent on Senate approval. 
But here is this constitutional conundrum, I omit here the impetus of Saudis greatly publicized slaughter of opposition journalist Khashoggi, in this matter: US Congress can not make treaties but it can and it did, in fact, it de-fanged Trump. Remember?

Public Law No: 115-44 (08/02/2017) Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act

So, as I wrote in 2017: 
But as of now--it is as good time as any to get pop-corn out and see, sometimes with pain, sometimes with amusement, how a bunch of morons in some Congress in D.C. just created America's worst case scenario with Russia and China all but becoming a full fledged allies (once Power of Siberia is launched in 2019, Europe can go to hell), with Iran now, inevitably, moving closer to this alliance. Talk about shooting oneself in a foot--but that was my position from the inception of this blog: the level of ignorance about outside world in D.C. is unbelievable and is clear and present danger to real American interests in staying much relevant and important major power in emerging new world geopolitical and economic order.  
Trump is really NOT in control of US Foreign Policy and a single occasion on which US Congress raised its voice allegedly for moral reasons, doesn't change situation with US foreign policy being ultimately controlled by neocons both in executive and legislative branches. While Saudi's genocidal war against Yemen must stop, this all is as far as it goes. American political machine and, especially, its foreign policy establishment are broken and I don't see how this could be fixed.

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Kay Bailey Hutchison Has Issues.

She is not very bright and not for once was noted to speak on issues of which she has zero understanding, including suggestions to bomb Russia into oblivion. They really do grow (some of them) dumb in Texas. She is a raging Russophobe, American exceptionalist and she is the US ambassador to NATO. Her latest? Let's start WW III. 
This is a very good demonstration of my theorem that lawyers do not make good military thinkers or leaders. In this sense she is no better than other "strategist" Dr. Blank who really needs some basic course in navigation and naval geography, which may provide some basic understanding of what Black and Azov Seas really are in a larger scheme of things, including, apart from overwhelming missile salvo Russia can provide against any combination of surface targets, such teeny-weeny problem for NATO as these seas being part of Russia's Southern Military District which, accidentally, has those wicked MiG-31Ks armed with hyper-sonic Kinzhals on combat station precisely around Black and Azov seas. If Hutchison wants to start World War Three, she may as well start it with a major Kaboom, or...just hear me out...why doesn't she ask for a personal participation, preferably on board of NATO's flag ship, and be there in person when "ensuring safe passage" for Ukrainian vessels. I think her wish will gladly be granted by NATO's naval group sent to Kerch Strait to teach those arrogant Russkies. 

But we have been through this before--appointing ignorant and unprofessional people to important public positions is a fine tradition of American governance especially in XXI century, especially when talking about any diplomatic positions which are occupied by people with zero skills. Oh, come on, look at Michael McFaul, an alleged Russian "scholar" or at a general "level" of US Department of State. But Hutchison is just a symptom of a serious illness which afflicted American politics which can not produce anymore anyone other than aggressive ignoramuses who may, at some point of time, help to unleash hell. The only upside of that will be that together with us, deplorables, those jerks will vanish too. In fact, they might be first to do so.

Monday, April 1, 2019

No Comments, Just Shaking Head.

Why the modern West is done? 
Liberalism is a mental illness and we are just beginning to see a full scale of a decline. 

I Don't Think So.

US halts deliveries of F-35 "equipment" to Turkey over S-400 contract. This is how F-35 soap saga is justified:
There is one problem, actually two, with this "justification". I'll start with a lesser one.

1. Patriot is not a peer to S-400. Nothing personal, but US AD systems are not "quite there" despite massive propaganda campaigns extolling their combat virtues. Turkey knows this. Turks have a good idea about how its own Air Force was grounded after shooting down Russian SU-24 in November 2015, and who and what actually provided targeting to Syrian AD on April 13, 2018 against Trump's "very smart missiles". Plus, in general, Russian record in this field speaks for itself.   

2. The most laughable in all that, however, is the fact that people still use this beaten to death argument about Turkey magically learning about how to shoot down allegedly super-pooper-duper invisible F-35 and then, of course, giving desperate Russians this information. Well, I have some news for those people who still reside in this bubble--to shoot down F-35 one has to have two different bands radar, good sensor-fusion algorithms and decent signal processing protocols and voila'. S-300 PMU2 Favorit can do this, certainly S-400, and its inevitably coming iterations for which there is literally a line of customers, can. In general, this whole BS about "stealth" should end at some point of time--it was a good propaganda while it lasted. Reality is, with modern processing power and radar design F-35 is not survivable against modern cutting edge air-defense and air-forces. 

I can totally understand the irritation Washington feels about this whole situation, after all Turkey is a key NATO member with actual army, and seeing NATO member going for such a weapon systems from Washington's prime time arch enemy--this is a no-no. But then comes this question: so, the United States will stop (will it?) F-35 and associated technology deliveries to Turkey, then what? Do we really want to open this can of worms? Turks are not idiots, by far--they can calculate and while Erdo might still do rapid 180 degrees maneuver, he also can not fail to consider the fact that instead of F-35 Turkey may get her hands on, say, some decent version of SU-35. Possible? Possible! How probable? I don't know. But Obama should have thought twice when unleashing, or pretending that he didn't know,  a coup against Erdogan in 2016. Or, for that matter, a bloody overthrow of government in Ukraine in 2014. But current American elites have no concept of own actions having consequences.

Meanwhile India also signed $5 billion contact for S-400, also against the background of Washington's pressure not to buy things from those pesky Russians. But behind all those maneuvers one fact remains unchanged and I was writing about this for years--Russian weapons systems are created to kill and do that very effectively. Unlike American military-industrial complex Russian military-industrial complex is not jobs program or corporate welfare system, it never was.  Allow me to quote myself:
For a nation with such a military history as Russia’s the issue of military technology is an issue of survival. As such, weapons in Russia are sacralized because behind them are generations of Russians who shed blood to make those weapons what they are. They have become a part of the culture to such a degree that commercial considerations take a very distant second place to a main purpose of these weapons—to actually defend the nation. This is absolutely not the case in the United States, with some exception for its Navy, with Americans having no knowledge or recollection of what real war is and what instruments for fighting and winning it are needed. Those things cannot be paid for in money, they are paid for in blood.
I guess this should help explain why Russia is so successful on the international market with her weapons. They are simply good, in fact, the best and people know that.