There Is Really Nothing To See There.

Trump is an empty suite and hot air balloon, who never controlled any of his administrations which are nothing more than collections of shysters with competing interests. Only cretins from the US pundits' class could hypothesize about some "strategy" and "balances" from such "composition" of Trump's "team", not seeing that the only purpose of Trump's presidency is self-aggrandizing and serving people who own him. 

Someone in Washington could be trying to undermine US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov has suggested, commenting on the recent leaks of his conversations with the envoy. At least some of the purported leaks are fake, he added. Speaking to Kommersant newspaper on Wednesday, Ushakov defended continued contacts between Moscow and Washington, including by phone, and maintained they are needed to build trust between the two nations. He also said that neither side was interested in leaking the contents of the conversations. According to the presidential aide, the incident might point to infighting in Washington. “Do you remember the case of [former National Security Adviser] Michael Flynn? This case could be the same,” the official said.

Ushakov is being diplomatic here, of course. The US is ungovernable and this chaos will continue. Which brings us to this: 

The Navy is walking away from the Constellation-class frigate program to focus on new classes of warships the service can build faster, Secretary of the Navy John Phelan announced Tuesday on social media. Under the terms negotiated with shipbuilder Fincantieri Marinette Marine, the Wisconsin shipyard will continue to build Constellation (FFG-62) and Congress (FFG-63) but will cancel the next four planned warships. “We are reshaping how the Navy builds its fleet. Today, I can announce the first public action is a strategic shift away from the Constellation-class frigate program,” reads the statement from Phelan. “The Navy and our industry partners have reached a comprehensive framework that terminates, for the Navy’s convenience, the last four ships of the class, which have not begun construction.” A senior defense official told reporters Tuesday that the cancellation of the ship program was part of the Navy’s latest effort to build and deliver new ship classes faster. “A key factor in this decision is the need to grow the fleet faster to meet tomorrow’s threats. This framework seeks to put the Navy on a path to more rapidly construct new classes of ships and deliver capabilities our war fighters need in greater numbers and faster,” the official said. In tandem, the wider Pentagon is retooling its acquisition system to emphasize speed. 

What you witness here is a bankruptcy of the whole acquisition and procurement policy not just in the US Navy, but US Armed Forces as a whole. For starters, it is inconceivable that the ship such as Constellation, carrying a rather timid air defense and strike packages--same ole', same ole' VLS with SM-6 and TLAMs, with subsonic Naval Strike Missile with the range of around 300 nautical miles, cost more than $ 1 billion dollars. 

It is a beautiful ship, but it is obsolete on arrival due to a new warfare paradigm driven by the ability to develop firing solution for long-range supersonic and hypersonic weapons 24/7. It is an anathema for the average US admiral and general to grasp a very simple truth. This, $100 million small ship:

Can sink in one salvo both Constellations, and it will have targeting and develop firing solution even before any of the modern US Navy ships can get into range. But here is the deal--for the price of a single Constellation Russia builds 10+ of these guys. Or, about three of these:

These ARE game-changers capable of sinking the whole CBG in a single salvo while staying way beyond the reach of anything CBG can launch back. But then again, unlike SM-6 and SPY-1, 2, 3 ...6, Poliment-Redut, known in its ground-base version as S-350 Vityaz is known for its outstanding real combat performance against every single stand-off weapon in NATO's arsenal. I guess, you get this simple math here, right? These are realities which the US military is simply incapable to face. And so, as they say:

“Sometimes, you’re just better off designing a new ship,” Navy’s former top acquisition executive Nickolas Guertin said at a conference in February. “Turns out modifying someone else’s design is a lot harder than it seems.”

Well, good luck spending another 10 + years designing a frigate while continuing with building unfit for combat LCS and fast becoming obsolete TLAM-carrying platforms such as good but insanely expensive and, as already stated--nearing obsolescence, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Late Admiral Rickover once stated that "The US Navy is used to traveling first class"--meaning the fleet of very large (and visually impressive) ships which today turned into a menagerie of very expensive white elephants good only for blowing up some third rate opposition from a safe distance. Read the comments to the USNI article I linked--they are very instructive. Always remember--it is COFM (Correlation Of Forces and Means) which is in the foundation of modern forces. 

UVZ

This acronym strikes terror into the hearts of Russia's enemies. 

The acronym stands for Uralvagonzavod--literally Ural Railcars Works. And, boy, look at them those "railcars" produced in the city of Nizhny Tagil. 

Not only those "railcars", starting from legendary T-34s, first of which rolled off the conveyor in 1941, to T-72s to T-90M Proryv, continue to roll off assembly lines today, but UVZ produced now undeniably the best tanks in the world--real combat in SMO left no doubts about it. Moreover, Russia is unbeatable in terms of quality and numbers of these tanks produced. By a mile, more than whole NATO combined. Today, UVZ celebrates its 88th anniversary. These are state-of-the-art, netcentric tanks which are capable to take on any self-proclaimed "best" Western tanks and defeat them, in fact--they did it many times already. 

Dmitry Orlov in his latest, symptomatically titled Uncontrolled Chaos, notes today:

It was a disaster 80 years in the making. At the end of World War II, the United States stood virtually alone as an economic power. Accounting for 50 percent of global GDP, it held 80% of the world's hard currency reserves. Fast-forward to 2024 and the share of the US in the world economy has shrunk to 14.76% (calculated from figures provided by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund). But even this number is misleading, for fully 20% of the US economy is made of what goes under the acronym FIRE: finance, insurance and real estate. These are unproductive parasites on the productive economy. Another unproductive parasite is health care: ridiculously overpriced, it amounts to almost a quarter of all spending in the US. Neither the resources consumed by FIRE, nor by health care spending, contribute much of anything to the standing of the US within the world economy. Adjusted for these, the US share of the world economy dwindles to just over 8%. While hardly negligible, this share is nowhere near sufficient to give the US anything like a majority vote or veto power in world affairs. The tragedy of the situation is that the mindset of Americans, particularly those occupying positions of authority in Washington, has been unable to adapt to this development. Their mindset appears to be fixed for all time: they believe that they can still dictate terms to the whole world and finding it increasingly awkward to cover up for the fact that almost the whole world (with some notable exceptions) now feels free to ignore them.

Here, you can see yourself overwhelmingly non-productive nature of the US economy. 

Get it? They consider a third world economy "based on services" a sign of a "developed nation". No wonder, when one looks at such "developed nations" like UK or Germany which increasingly look like a third world. Which also explains why the US is incapable of producing a new Main Battle Tank, with the reputation (primarily through Hollywood and propaganda) being blown up to smithereens by good ol' UVZ's T-72. Remember this? 

Well, in related news... Another SSK of pr. 636 Yakutsk (for Pacific Fleet) was floated today. 

But, but, I am sure that capitalization of the St.Petersburg's Admiralty Wharfs which builds those subs is nowhere near the capitalization of any business consulting company in the US. Hey, what do those losers at UVZ have on this monster--they'll tell you how to run business, right? Right?  

SVR Makes Statements.

SVR or Service of the External Intelligence or Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia through its representative colonel-general Matveev issued some interesting statements. 

МОСКВА, 16 авг — РИА Новости. Западные кураторы практически списали киевский режим со счетов и уже планируют раздел Украины, заявил представитель Службы внешней разведки генерал-полковник Владимир Матвеев на Московской конференции по международной безопасности."Очевидно, что Запад обеспокоен не судьбой киевского режима. Как видно из поступающей в СВР информации, западные кураторы уже практически списали его со счетов и вовсю занимаются разработкой планов по разделу и оккупации по крайней мере части украинских земель", — сказал он. Однако, по словам генерала, на кону стоит гораздо большее, чем Украина: для Вашингтона и его союзников речь идет о судьбе колониальной системы господства над миром.

Translation: MOSCOW, August 16 - RIA Novosti. Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Vladimir Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.

 

Among many things Matveev articulated, one stands out especially and this is about US detachment from reality and dogmatic approach to its, now former, colonial possessions, which today are reduced to Europe. That explains the cognitive dissonance in the US which increasingly creates chaos in desperate attempts to preserve already lost global dominance. As Matveev says (in Russian) such an approach is risible but also--dangerous. As he underscored:"The West is getting weaker, it stumbles but still thinks itself as mighty...", which is absolutely true when one looks not only at what the combined West does but also who is at the helm. So, a very interesting set of statements from SVR. 

 

In related news, Army 2022 exhibition has opened in Russia. I cannot access the site of this exhibition--forbidden, of course--but Reuters reacts like this, LOL:

Ignoring Ukraine setbacks, Putin touts 'superior' Russian weapons exports. 

Sure, sure, Russia is about to lose in Ukraine and run out of ammo. But truth is, Putin did state that a lot of Russian weapons will be offered for international sales which means to underscore his earlier, February this year, statement that Russia will unveil soon some weapon systems which are revolutionary. But one photo from allegedly Army 2022 is interesting. 

The boat in the rear is pr. 955 A (Borei-A class), but in the front is this much talked about, I guess, Husky-class platform which could be used both for new generation SSGNs and SSBNs. Looks cool.

I Do Not Have Much Faith Anymore...

In France for a number of reasons among which is my complete lack of confidence in French demographics statistics--I think France is more "culturally enriched" and Islamized than it is officially reported, second--French elected Emmanuel Macron. They might as well have elected Ken, Barbie doll's male companion--the result would have been pretty much the same with France descending into the chaos. Fact is, be that Sarkozy, Hollande or the current President of the Fifth Republic--one has to ask a question if France even has anyone of scale in the mainstream politics. Well, I, certainly, have a natural gravitation towards Marine Le Pen, but I am not French and I do not follow French politics that closely unless some notable France's "cultural enrichment" event, such as Chechen and Arab drug traffickers enrich the hell out of French, such as the enriching events in Dijon, occurs and French show themselves completely impotent and scared. 

Now, evidently, people in French Military and Law Enforcement elite had it. 

Twenty retired generals and scores of ex-officers have sparked a political furore in France after calling on President Emmanuel Macron to stop the country from descending into chaos and “civil war” at the hands of Islamists. Led by Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, a retired Gendarmerie general, and signed by 80 other retired officers, the open letter to Mr Macron was published in Valeurs Actuelles, a right-wing news magazine, last week. Strongly supported by Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally and presidential candidate, the text was this week dismissed by Mr Macron’s government as a diatribe from a bunch of military pensioners who “only represent themselves”.

As always, it takes people who are professionals in facing death and calamity, not some bankster globalist boy-toy, to point out the evident. Considering the level of French media, which is about the same as the US media's level, that means being staffed with mostly uneducated morons and globalist shills (usually, globalism is a symptom of undeveloped mind) we get, and you guessed it, completely false historic parallels. 

It was, it said, sadly reminiscent of the Algiers putsch - an attempt to oust Charles de Gaulle 60 years ago by retired generals who opposed moves towards granting Algeria, then a French colony, independence after a bloody civil war.

I wonder who said so, because last time I checked, 60 years ago, for all her colonial troubles, France proper still remained France, populated with the majority of French people and Paris still had this aura about it because it hasn't been turned into the urine smelling shithole yet.  Like this: 

Since then things got worse, much worse and I will abstain from commenting on Marseilles, which IS NOT a French city anymore, or other places which under Macron "leadership" went from places "still having potential" to complete dumps. The statement proclaims:

Under the influence of Left-wing dogma France was “disintegrating with the Islamists of the hordes of the banlieue [suburbs] who are detaching swathes of the nation and turning them into territory subject to dogmas contrary to our constitution,” they warned. Failure to act now could see “an explosion and then intervention by our comrades on active service in the dangerous mission of protecting our civilised values and the safety of our compatriots”. “There is no time to waffle, or tomorrow civil war will put an end to this growing chaos and the dead, for whom you will bear responsibility, will be counted in the thousands.” Without citing any political figures, the generals said that they were “ready to support politicians who take into account the safety of the nation”.

Will their comrades "intervene"? I don't know, but what they forget to say is that European "left wing dogma" is, actually, a mental illness and no people coming from be that nominal European or American "left" are capable of any kind of real statecraft. They just cannot govern, they don't know how and the issue is not just the "left-wing". When one looks at, say, American so called "conservatives" they are hardly better, because the issue is systemic and cannot be resolved within the framework of current political and economic system. Well, even if to imagine that Marine wins, what can she do? Apart from a hostile governing apparatus she will inherit a media, packed with new iteration of French hippies and perverts of all colors, and she may end up as Trump, granted Trump was so inept and cowardly in his governing that Marine comes across like a real stateswoman with the balls of steel, pardon my French.

Mr Macron has come under a barrage of criticism for his perceived “lax” approach to immigration and security in recent days, buoyed by polls suggesting 65 per cent of the French do not think his government has a handle on crime.

Aw, French are learning now about this simple fact that all actions have consequences and I can only say here that each nation deserves government it elects. I am sure they will elect some globalist shill again and the cultural enrichment will continue. Elena Chudinova was prophetic, let's face it. The Western Europe is finished and it has no idea how to stop committing a suicide. 

In fact, it has no desire to do so. And no, Chudinova's book is not a "dystopia". Western "liberalism" killed what used to be known as Western Civilization. Coroner!   

 

P.S. Remember when Paris "sounded" like this? 

Why Mathematical Models Break Down. And Why Our Life Depends On That-5. What Is Probable.

So, consider now a simple problem (such as it is taught in War Colleges in Russia) for a simple tank (or even ship) scenario of shooting at target. This is an actual problem and it is excellent for demonstrating how non-linear war is. Recall, we already know a little bit about Osipov-Lanchester equations, whose solution is quadratic. So here it is:

In a combat the blue tank (ours) detects red tank (bogey) and the blue crew is given an order to dispose of bogey red tank in three shots max. You may apply this to, for now, ship on ship artillery duel.  Here immediately comes a scientific assumption—we, for the simplicity of experiment, assume that we already know the actual probabilities of each of the three shots. Those probabilities will be described by a much complex interaction (will see how in Salvo Model) of crew's level of training, ballistic computer properties and myriad other things, which are not the point now. So, say we know that the Probability P₁ of the first shot hitting the target (red bogey) is 0.6, consequently P₂=0.75 and P₃=0.85.  We also know our crucial Omega, ω, a mathematical expectation, or, speaking in layman's lingo—the weighted average of hits required for disabling such type of a target as our red bogey. Say, our ω=1.2. So, for this particular tactical task what will be the probability of killing the (red) bastard? It is warranted to say that Probability of this "kill" is also THIS very important and dominating parameter which defines what is known as a decisive element of any commanding decision, be it on one-on-one battle or in a very complex, multi-level operation—Criterion of Effectiveness. Criterion of Effectiveness is, most of the time, a probability of killing enemy SOB thus completing the task and attaining our objective(s).

The solution is very simple:

For this kind of task the Probability of a "kill" P_k from three shots will be:

 We plug in our numbers and get:

  

So, the probability of out tank killing the evil bastard is very high and pleasant 0.95. Good job! Death to occupants! 

Of course, one can also go exactly 180 degrees and using desired probability, say I want to defeat SOBs who deployed their MLRS launcher about to blow us up with the probability of P_d = 0.97, which is THE Criterion of Effectiveness, and get the number of required forces (tanks, ships, missiles etc.), aka in Russia as Naryad Sil (literally—forces which are "dressed"). Of course, in this case one will have to consider such things as probabilities of, say, tanks hitting the enemy with the first shot. So, say in this case, we need to count how many tanks we need to blow enemy's missile launcher (MLRS) up and then repulse enemy's counterattack. If we consider that the probability of hitting the target with the first shot will be the same (for simplicity of demonstration) for all tanks and is P_s = 0.45, we, using good ol' formula (in real life it will be much more expanded and complex one, we'll get to that too):         

Lower case n here is this number of tanks which we have to solve for.  Solution is easy:                  

After using logarithms (not crucial for now) we get our n=5.87 or, rounding it up, 6 tanks to do the mission. 

These are simple examples. But, as I stated, these examples are easily applied to other forces and here is the trick. These things, and much more, used to be done by staffs—they still are doing this and models and mathematics they operate is very complex. Nowadays these are computer battlefield networks which do most of this job but here is the deal—commanding officer, operational staff continue to matter immensely and especially on a purely human level. Greatest military minds seldom calculated themselves what is above and much more, but secret to their success was having those highly developed synapses which allowed them, very often without calculator or logarithmic ruler, see a larger tactical and operational framework. They had this tactical-operational non-linear intuition which helped them time after time achieve success in a seemingly completely chaotic business of war. From that, also, all Combat Manuals, Tactical and Operational procedures were written. It is true when they say that military manuals are written in blood. War is probabilistic in nature—always was—and that is what many laymen fail to recognize, that excellent tactical and operational level officers are developed in a tremendously rigorous mathematical (and physics) fundamental sciences, which allow them to proceed further into an extremely complex world of modern military technology and its combat use. Without understanding of modern high tech combat and being able to predict outcomes within highly non-linear combat framework no serious discussion is possible...

To Be Continued...