Down The Memory Lane.

That was the "plan" by curators of 404 Nazis. If anyone forgot. 

Yesterday, there was a mass grave uncovered in Kursk Oblast--524 bodies of Russian civilians executed by NATO. Around one thousand is still missing. The Fourth Reich in action, but now it follows the path of its predecessor. Obviously, with Poroshenko being high on NATO Kool Aid promising this to Russians was a bad idea. 

In related news, in an attempt to alleviate the butt-hurt, the neocon central Newsweek ... lies. 

US hypersonic missile warship put to sea. A United States warship recently completed sea trials following upgrades to launch hypersonic missiles capable of striking targets at over five times the speed of sound. USS Zumwalt, one of three Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers, underwent modernization to become the first U.S. Navy platform capable of launching the Conventional Prompt Strike, or CPS, a hypersonic boost-glide missile designed to defeat enemy defenses.

I have news--the US doesn't have hypersonic weapons and is not going to have them any time soon. So, sticking some VLS for non-existent weapon to the white elephant is not producing "hypersonic missile warship", which, in the end is absolutely defenseless against real hypersonic weapons. Yes, the US Army announced the "fielding" of LRHW. Fielding being the term for all kinds of activities not related to actual weapon. But let me remind you about this weapon. 

Another Army officer at the event, who is not immediately identifiable, told Hegseth that Dark Eagle has a warhead “under 30 pounds,” which is relatively tiny for a long-range weapon — smaller in size than what’s found on an AIM-120 air-to-air missile, for instance. The officer stated the warhead is just to get its “projectiles out” and that it can deliver effects over an area about the same size as the parking lot they were standing on.

The Navy has its own program, Intermediate Range Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) Weapon System, as you might expect--the weapon also doesn't exist and when it will, nobody knows. But you can be assured of a variety of headlines and articles explaining how these weapons WILL work if they ever become actual weapons. But then we will have to get into the operational details of the modern naval warfare, where any US Navy's ship is nothing but a fat prestigious target and that in real world of conventional war it is not survivable. And then, of course, comes this issue of anti-missile defense and requirements for anti-hypersonic intercepts, but let's hope that the US and Russia (and China) find some modus vivendi. Otherwise it will take a long time trying to explain this. 

And what it all means for strategic balance. And I am not even talking about this. 

You have to explain to Pentagon that they need to attend elementary hyper-sonic school before trying to catch up. But no worries, the US military "is a finest fighting force in history"(c). 

Ukrainian "Navy".

Poroshenko needs desperately some kind of force majeure to cancel elections and stay in power, Ukraine desperately needs a bloody nose to get support from the combined West: US, Germany, France, you know real West, which in Ukraine means people with money (Poland needs not apply). Ukraine needs it to preserve gas transit from Russia through her rusting GTS by means of shutting down Nord Stream 2. This may happen, especially when one considers who runs Germany, but for that Ukraine needs to provoke Russia. Hence:

MOSCOW,December 19. /TASS/. The next passage of Ukrainian ships through the KerchStrait, announced by Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Alexander Turchinov earlier, will be considered as a new irresponsible provocation, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated during Wednesday’s briefing. "This is just an announcement of a new provocation,which has the same provocative nature," the diplomat said. "It is absolutely irresponsible. It is only meant to make the situation worse." "Many Ukrainian partners are trying to defuse the tensions in this situation, and are actually working on finding ways of de-escalation," Zakharova noted."To make such a statement in the context of these attempts made by several states, including EU member countries, is to confirm that provocations are the calling card of the current Kiev regime." Earlier today, Turchinov stated in an interview with the BBC that Ukraine has no plans to cease the passage of its military vessels through the Kerch Strait, and did not rule out the possibility of eliminating the Crimean Bridge. He added that Ukraine is ready to invite representatives of the OSCE, NATO and other international organizations to be present at the Ukrainian vessels.

Obviously, Ukrainian "Navy" is such an "impressive" force, that no one in their mind would consider spending even a single anti-shipping missile on the Ukrainian floating bathtubs once they will try to "breakthrough" Kerch Strait into the Azov Sea, but what  is the most fascinating here is the fact of yet another statement (highlighted in yellow) from the Ukraine's political top calling on, basically, terrorist act on Russian territory. Hm, I wonder how the US or Germany will react if Russia's political top called on blowing up some serious infrastructure in US or Germany? Do I hear condemnation of Turchinov's reckless (on the advice of his American instructors) statement from D.C., Berlin, Brussels? Crickets, crickets...

Of course, even more serious provocation may be conceived by a desperate and, most of the time, drunk Poroshenko. No, I am not talking about attacking LDNR. There is a probability, however not very high now, that Ukrainian Army may try to even attack Russia proper and, again, I am not even talking about Crimea, albeit it is in the contingency plans of Ukrainian General Staff. No, I am talking about Russia, such as attack on the Kharkov-Belgorod axis. There is only 40 miles between them. Obviously such an attempt will be stopped and whatever Ukrainian forces could be committed to such an act will be annihilated with massive Ukrainian casualties, but the damage will be done. After all, hapless Ukrainian sailors and SBU thugs who supervised them last time during their pathetic attempts in the Kerch Strait have been sent by Poroshenko with the idea that they will die clashing with Russian Coast Guard.  They even photoshoped additional hole from who knows what caliber gun.

Arrow shows photoshoped hole.

Now, Ukraine needs bigger blood, bigger than even them shooting down Malaysian MH-17. Anything dramatic which either allows Poroshenko to declare himself a real (sort of) war president or will give him some justifications for escaping aggressive Russians and their hordes of Buryat-driven T-90s and T-72BM3s to some Western European paradise to live out on his stolen riches. The more the blood, the merrier. The US would love this scenario, in fact people like Kurt Volker (a US governor in Ukraine) work hard for this scenario to materialize, despite publicly expressing displeasure with Poroshenko's "state of war". 

Here is Putin's conundrum--he promotes (granted with some justification) Ukrainians as a relatives of Russia who, in the end, will come home. Moreover, Sergei Lavrov was explicit two days ago in his interview (in Russian) to KP that Russia is interested in a whole, stable and prosperous Ukraine and that is why does not recognize LDNR. Was Lavrov bluffing? Very well could be, in the end, it was Lavrov who a week ago described the scale of Russophobia in Ukraine as unprecedented and being an official policy of the state. He is absolutely right here. Does Russian political top consider a scenario when it will be forced to annihilate Ukrainian troops trying to provoke Russia? Absolutely. Does Russia have plans of, indeed, disposing of banderite regime in Kiev? Yes. But there is also an important factor playing into these considerations--overwhelming majority of Russians doesn't really view Ukrainian nation as it formed in the last decade as friendly or relative. So, what is at stake here? Russians do not want to denazify, which is tantamount to de-ukrainiization, of this hell hole in the middle of Europe. But it very well might be that at some point Russia will simply have no other option but to finish-off this Western freak-show next to her borders and will try to mobilize some competent and courageous forces within Ukraine (LDNR is a first candidate for this) for a complete reconstituting of the Ukrainian State as normal, more-or-less prosperous nation friendly to Russia. But that is a separate discussion which involves the fate of the so called Ukrainstvo as anti-Russia as such.

Poroshenko's Gambit.

I know, some people are waiting for my response to Ukraine's Azov Sea provocation. OK, here it is--Poroshenko, whose approval rating in Ukraine is about, what, 10% or so, got his wish and declared a Martial Law. LOL. Ukrainian "democracy" in a full swing and, most likely, no elections. Not that they mean anything in Ukraine. The rest? Sergei Viktorovich, help, please. Because I am not interested in discussing the abyss which separates Ukraine's "fleet" and competencies, quality and capability of Russian Coast Guard and other forces around Azov Sea. It is akin to comparing VW Beetle with T-90 tank. The result of clash is easily predictable. 

Update: Another wannabe idiot economist from Atlantic Council pretends that he is Chester Nimitz or, the least, Arleigh Burke.

A senior fellow at the pro-NATO Atlantic Council has said the US should send naval ships into the Sea of Azov to guarantee it stays open after a skirmish between Russian and Ukrainian ships. Only problem is, that would be illegal.

Since when all those amateurs, such as blank Blank or this Aslund guy who has zero qualifications to control a freaking 10-foot row boat, have competencies to call for any military responses? Can they, Goddamn, get back under their pretentious useless "humanities" degrees stones and continue to pretend that they have valuable skills. I wonder, how this Aslund creep imagines this whole US Navy "sending ships" to the Azov Sea. I omit, of course, a larger issue of the aviation of Russia's Southern Military District. Imbecile. That's, my friends, is the "level" of American think-tankdom and academe.  

Hindsight Is 20/20 vision?

Not necessarily so. Especially in the light of recent events. While the world is concentrated on Syria, some really huge events took place near small locality of Armyansk on the border between  Russian Crimea and Ukraine.  When Putin directly states that Normandy format is dead and that Ukraine has "turned to terrorism"--this is very serious, boys and girls. I'll try to make it very clear, as I made it yesterday on Colonel Lang's discussion board, that not only I believe but have some very serious reasons to suspect that Hillary Clinton needs a solid additional insurance in form of "Today We are all Ukrainians".  In the end, it is August, the Olympics are in full swing and The Donald, despite everything being thrown at him by establishment, still remains in contention, especially after serious doubts about Hillary's overall physical and, what is even more important, mental health. D.C. needs war and it needs it now! Well, having its "democratic rebels" in a form of Al Qaeda and ISIS related structures being obliterated on a consistent basis in Syria, the only serious card left in neocon/liberal interventionist sleeve is Ukraine. 

Shortly, about military aspect--Russia IS NOT going to invade Ukraine, even if suicidal Ukrainian troops will try to invade Crimea. Obviously, they will be annihilated, including on their positions in small parts of Kherson Oblast bordering Crimea, where they are pre-deployed as of now. Well, too bad. Kiev got caught big time in terrorism. The use of reconnaissance-diversionary groups in peace time against the foreign state, well--it is terrorism. Judging by hysterical and absolutely incoherent reaction from Kiev--they know they got caught. Russia is not going to invade but with what already is known about captured terrorists and after their clandestine ring was destroyed in Russia--rearranging the stones in some key Ukrainian installations is suddenly on the table. The targeting may vary from the buildings of Ukrainian Defense Ministry to some other, purely military-intelligence, installations. Dropping this Normandy Format (mostly for entertainment of the morons from Europe) is also a good idea--there is nothing to talk about with anyone in Kiev. And here is the main point of this post.

For two and a half years I continue to hear and read from all kinds of sources  (be it notorious Igor Strelkov or the so called Colonel Cassad, aka Boris Rozhin) that all latest events (whatever it was at each point of time in the last 30 months) are a solid proof that they, whoever they are, were correct all along and that Russian Army should have taken much more pro-active approach when ultra-nationalist psychopaths in Kiev were still in transition period after the coup. Well, actually, life has proven these kind of strategist ultimately wrong and it is precisely on the merit of the latest events. Here are some important points:

1. While Russia's reaction to the events in Kiev in 2014 was very much situationally-driven, the whole notion of people from all kinds of media/blogosphere outlets pretending to know better what the President of Russian Federation knows is, frankly, preposterous. It is obvious that Putin, even when he makes mistakes, which are mostly of tactical nature, bases his strategic decisions on what could only be described as an exhaustive and systemic knowledge of the global stage  and it is being provided to him by the reconnaissance/intelligence/analytical capability which is second to none in the world. And he was absolutely right for a variety of strategic and tactical reasons, both global and domestic, not to invade Ukraine in 2014. 

2. As recent events demonstrated fully, Ukraine is still in the grasp of utter nationalist hysteria and delusion which defines her each step and I am not talking about "elites". Very many, if not slight majority in Ukraine are active participants in this nuttery. In the end, these were only people of Donetsk and Lugansk  who took the arms and started fighting for their freedom. Somehow, the rest of Ukraine decided to wait things out. Today, Armed Forces of Novorossya, with the obvious help from Russia, are a serious fighting force and young republics not only survived but continue to develop. The rest of Ukraine--is on the verge of Makhnovschina. The argument that Russian invasion of 2014 would turn very many Ukrainians against Russia was and remains not only valid but even more so--a defining strategic consideration for Putin. As it must be. Somehow all those "strategists" forget what Russia not for once did before return of Crimea home--number of polls were conducted, not that it wasn't known for those who spent even a week in Sevastopol or Crimea where and with whom the hearts of overwhelming majority of people there were and are. They were with Russia. Still, in Crimean case Russia knew what and how should be accomplished and people of Crimea responded. The rest of Ukraine did not. Having 30 000 people around Kharkov Oblast Administration building and raising Russian flag over it--is not in itself a proof of anything, as further developments so abundantly demonstrated. 

3. Yet, even today, despite proving themselves anything but mere incompetent bystanders, as Igor Strelkov (Girkin) did by pushing constantly the conspirological idea that Surkov acted independently of Putin's decisions--a manifestation of complete lack of awareness of even basic principles on which Kremlin operates--these same people continue to push the idea that the invasion was necessary. Yet, they ignore a very obvious truth that from the get go Putin's objective was NOT TO acquire an additional drain on Russia's limited resources in a form of largely hostile, nationalistic, unstable entity of Ukraine. The only person who spoke about this openly and competently was (and remains) Rostislav Ishenko--undeniably the best informed and most knowledgeable true analyst of Ukrainian phenomenon in Russia's public media space. 

4. Recent events prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that conserving, while accumulating, resources, allowing Ukraine to fester in her own vile juices, while retaining and, actually, improving the ability to intervene should the necessity arise, supporting young Novorossya Republics, making procedure for getting Russia's citizenship for Russian and Russophone refugees from Ukraine easy, being able to change the dynamics of war in Syria, making Erdogan come to Russia and apologize--this is not  a bad collection of accomplishments for a leadership which was and is still being accused of not being decisive enough, not doing this or that. I wonder, if those people who issue those suggestions seriously think that they know more?  

Meanwhile, Petro Poroshenko is desperately trying to talk to Putin on the phone, after all his country, Ukraine, has nothing to do with killing own civilians, raping, pillaging and robbing them. No way.  I am sure he will try to convince Putin that Kiev has nothing to do with sending terrorist groups to Russia. Meanwhile, we will continue to listen to the same broken record about lost opportunities and about shoulda, woulda, coulda. After all, isn't it what "strategists" and Monday morning quarterbacks do? Just a passing thought, and I do not even like the guy (Putin)...