Thank You, Scott.

Karaganov is nothing more than the so called political pseudo-scientist who never was adviser to anyone, never held any government position, and whose ONLY occupation is to promote himself. He has zero military background, he has zero understanding of the warfare, especially nuclear one and ignores, non-stop, Russia's obligations and such documents as Foundations of the State Policy (of Russian Federation) on Nuclear Containment. He is a hack who uses his PR persona to articulate idiotic amateurish ideas on a subject he has no clue about other than one-liners from people who do hold serious positions in Russian military-political hierarchy and who are professionals. Admittedly Karaganov has some access to such people.

My warnings about Karaganov in the West are very weak and could easily be dismissed because of a number of possible excuses which could be made about my background and possible biases. But this is gold. Karaganov cannot create any doctrine (which is the system of the views) because he has no system and professional views to do so. It is fallacy, not a "doctrine" and I am glad Scott made this video. 

Scott Elaborates On The Matter ...

 ... as a military professional.

Karaganov is NOT military professional, he is a demagogue who failed to insert himself into any position in the Russian Foreign Ministry and was always in the business of self-promotion and self-proclamation of being "adviser" to whoever was a flavor of the decade. He is not and never was any "adviser" to President Putin and he has no a faintest idea about issues related to Russia's Military Doctrine and the use of nuclear weapons (Foundation of State Policy on Nuclear Containment). In general, he is an incompetent hack who simply uses his position of being born and tied to privileged Soviet families and that's the extent of his "skills". In fact, his statements are the statements of a media attention-seeking whore. He is fake. 

Now, per strikes--all indicators are that Russia will strike Europe. Russia doesn't need to use nukes because she has more than enough conventional means for both destruction of a critical industrial infrastructure involved in support of 404 and, if it comes down to it, decapitating governments of hostile countries. The conditions for the use of nuclear weapons are not met yet. But they are already within the legal vicinity for the possible use. Here they are:

19. The conditions determining the possibility of the Russian Federation using nuclear weapons are:

a) receipt of credible information regarding the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

b) the use by an adversary of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies, or against military formations and/or facilities of the Russian Federation located outside its territory;

c) an adversary’s impact on critical state or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would lead to the disruption of the retaliatory actions of its nuclear forces;

d) aggression against the Russian Federation and/or the Republic of Belarus—as participants in the Union State—involving the use of conventional weapons, which poses a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity;

e) receipt of credible information regarding the mass launch (takeoff) of aerospace attack assets (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, hypersonic and other aircraft) and their crossing of the state border of the Russian Federation.

Other considerations come into play here, but pp. d is "getting there". Karaganov doesn't understand operational let alone technological implications of all that--he simply has no tool kit or background to pass judgement on the matter. But that brings us back to the starting point--Russia has enough conventional means to strike at any facility in Europe and the US IS NOT coming for a simple reason--it has no resources. Demilitarizing NATO was one of the key strategic aims of SMO (once it became clear that the US sabotaged Istanbul talks) and Iran has demonstrated it fully. Who will be hit first? Yeah, I am inclined to see Germany "getting the message"--it is long overdue. 

Of Course, They Don't...

 ... understand dimensions. Most of them are products of the US degree mills from Ivy League humanities and "government" programs which are primarily academic fraud. Ray says it well:

Neocons do not know war, including American generals who serve them. Plus, Karaganov is NOT a specialist in anything--he is merely a good ol' Moscow elite boy with "credentials" in... nothing and has about zero (in fact, negative) grasp of warfare. 

Now, per Western media being giddy about Toropets explosions. 

Couple of the buildings of the ABOVE ground storage detonated after one of the 404 UAVs fell (it was shot down) on one of the buildings. Most of the weapons and explosives are stored deep under ground and they haven't been affected.

For People Who Still Recall...

 ... this so called "strategist". Remember?

Russia should revise its nuclear doctrine and lower its nuclear threshold in order to deter the West from pursuing reckless policies, says former foreign policy adviser to the deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Sergey Karaganov. The political scientist, who is the honorary chair of the presidium of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense policy (SVOP), has in the past repeatedly brought up the issue of nuclear weapons, in a number of articles, and has suggested that Russia should consider the possibility of carrying out preemptive nuclear strikes against targets in Europe at some point. Karaganov’s controversial suggestions have landed him in hot water, as SVOP members even issued a joint letter this summer “unequivocally condemning” his reasoning and calling it “irresponsible” to assume a nuclear conflict could be limited without spiraling into a global nuclear war, costing millions of lives.

It is easy when you have no viable education and is privileged boy from Soviet/Russian Moscow Beau Monde who wouldn't know the difference between operational and strategic. So, spewing BS is the only skill these types have. But, finally, Vladimir Vladimirovich put all this pseudo-military amateurish crap to rest. Today, to the whole world. 

"Превентивный удар нам пока не нужен, потому что в ответно-встречном ударе противник будет гарантированно уничтожен", - пояснил российский лидер, комментируя возможность обновления ядерной доктрины.  

Translation:  We don’t need a preventive strike yet, because in a retaliatory (head-on response strike) strike the enemy will be guaranteed to be destroyed,” the Russian leader explained, commenting on the possibility of updating the nuclear doctrine.

Simple as that, and that validates what I started to state the moment announcements of the possibility of changes to Russian nuclear doctrine started to circulate--the changes will be primarily of the technical (and technological) nature and will involve the imposition on the US of the technological development in the delivery and anti-missile systems where the US is radically falling behind and the gap only grows. In SMO--Russia will continue to annihilate mobilization potential of NATO, and continue to kill 404 cannon fodder.

Why Karaganov Wrote This...

... shit? 

Sergey Karaganov: By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe. A tough but necessary decision would likely force the West to back off, enabling an earlier end to the Ukraine crisis and preventing it from expanding to other states 

I want to immediately point out that most people who reacted to Karaganov's amateurish BS, be that "Colonel" Trenin, Fyodor Lukyanov, other Valdai boys, who continue to discuss mental excrement by shyster from geopolitics, have absolute zero knowledge about nuclear weapons, system of command and control of nuclear deterrent, technological issues related to use of nuclear weapons. None, it is down right risible when colonel with philological degree or a "thinker" with degree in "journalism" begin to wax "strategic" on things they have no clue about. Like this "profound" conclusion by the guy who wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola.

Sergey Karaganov’s article, arguing that “the use of nuclear weapons could save humanity from global catastrophe” has provoked a strong reaction. This was probably the author’s intention.

Karaganov, like Lukyanov, knows nothing about ANY weapons, let alone nuclear ones, and none of them are qualified to utter anything on the issue of warfare, be that pro or contra, because they are fucking amateurs with degrees and skills donkeys can obtain after a few years of taming. 

Karaganov's piece and the "discussion" by media amateurs at this moment is in direct contradiction to yesterday's Sergei Lavrov's de facto statement of principles of Russian nuclear doctrine and rejection of US and 404 speculation on... what Karaganov calls for...

Johnny Rotten, thank you for translating it. Moreover, the whole thing comes across as pure provocation in the moment when country just went through a dangerous period. I am on record--it is time to remove all kinds of political "scientists", journos and other "soft degrees" BSers from serious geopolitical debate and power balance politics because none of them is qualified to pass any judgement on a critical component on power balance--they simply have NO education for that, period. BTW, where is Margarita Simonyan who spends so much time on all kinds of TV shows by the same ignoramuses as she is--last few days she simply evaporated from the TV screens and social media. I wonder why? 

And now who doubted (I will name names) two days ago:

US backs coup attempts whenever it can benefit – Lavrov

FSB is looking into this matter, but Vladimir Putin stated this clearly an hour ago:

“They [the West and Ukraine] wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other, so that soldiers and civilians would die, so that in the end Russia would lose, and our society would break apart and choke on bloody civil strife,” the president said. “They rubbed their hands, dreaming of getting revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counteroffensive, but they miscalculated.”

Wagner is kaput. The rest is history. Those who will decide to join Prigozhin (for now) in Belarus will live their remaining (not very long) lives in fear. When their end comes, they will know why and by who.

"Revelation" Mode.

Vladimir Putin at Valdai today drops a bomb. 

"Не знаю, большой тайны, наверно, не открою, все равно это станет ясно. Мы сейчас помогаем нашим китайским партнерам создать систему СПРН - систему предупреждения о ракетном нападении. Это очень серьезная вещь, которая капитальным, кардинальным образом повысит обороноспособность КНР. Потому что сейчас такую систему имеет только США и Россия"

Translation: "I don't know, I probably wouldn't open a huge secret, it will become known one way or another. We are helping our Chinese partners to create (SRPN) Missile Attack Early Warning System. This is a very serious system, which radically increases China's defensive capabilities. Currently only Russia and the United States have such systems."

This is stunning, honestly. It also answers a gigantic host of questions about the future of Eurasia and of Europe, and the United States. This also, especially in a view of Russia successfully shooting down hyper-sonic targets by S-400s, begs an irresistible question--what are OTHER technologies Russia is not talking about, considering the fact that she helps to completely redefine China's defensive capabilities. It is also funny against the background of lament of Russia getting ready to export (in Russian) her latest radar Rezonans-NE (E stands for export) capable of detecting any types of targets, including hypersonic ones (which are extremely difficult to detect, unlike "Stealth") at the over-horizon ranges up to 1,100 kilometers. 

It is also funny how it coincided with famous political and ideological opportunist such as Sergei Karaganov stating what I am writing about for years (in Russian): Defending the World May Become  Russia's New Mission. I would say, I would start with dissolution of Karaganov's current place of employment--High School of Economics (VShE), a malignant cancerous growth on Russia's academe and the body of higher educational facilities. But never mind, these people will always find someone who would pay them. Yet, even Karaganov and Suslov in their latest Report on "New Understanding and Ways To Improve Multilateral Strategic Stability" (Новое понимание и пути укрепления     огосторонней стратегической стабильности) arrive to a very mature conclusion, on page 27. Listing threats to global strategic stability they declare next:

2.3.1.5. Особая проблема–падение интеллектуального и морального уровня элит многих стран. Идет антимеритократический отбор. В руководство пришли люди телевизионного поколения, склонные немедленно реагировать на новости и «картинку», и о ней более всего и заботящиеся. Они не способны к стратегическому и даже оперативному мышлению, по нарастающей безответственны. Особенно заметны эти процессы в современных демократиях. При этом на подходе «поколение айфонов», у которого эти недостатки развиты, видимо, еще сильнее.

Translation: "A special problem is a decline of intellectual and moral level of elites in many nations. The anti-meritocratic selection is ongoing. People of TV generation are making now to the political top, they are inclined to react immediately to the news and TV "picture", they also care about this picture most of all. They are not capable of strategic and even operational thinking, they are increasingly irresponsible. These processes are most pronounced in modern democracies. Moreover, the "iPhone" generation is nearing, those failings are even more acute among them."

If you think that this is about POTUS think again--have you taken a look at Western Media and governments as of lately? Do you see there anyone who can be taken seriously as any partner in any negotiations let alone be trusted with anything? I see nobody but infantile, badly educated, power-hungry ignoramuses and, as I stated not for once, I feel much calmer when Gerasimov and Milley talk directly, per Western  political top--what's the point of talking? That is why Russia and China are taking unprecedented steps in making sure that some nutjob thinks twice before deciding that his degree in law or in political science makes him (or her) eligible to make decisions on the most serious matters of global war and peace. But in the end, still, what a stunning development.

Karaganov's Article.

I don't like Karaganov, he is smug, pretentious but once in a while he gets some things right. Here is the link to the translation of his article in Izvestya. 

The New Ideological Struggle: What Russia Offers the World 

or 

Same But In Russian 

The article is worthy of paying attention to. It gives a good simple overview of the mental framework of contemporary world. While still having traces of typical Karaganov's smugness, such as Russia managed somehow to win these wars at a monstrous cost--obviously Karaganov is not aware that there is no real Soft Power without the Hard one--but it is what it is and it is correct in many important aspects, even though he misses on Huntington's magnum opus, which makes his initial supposition totally wrong. So, enjoy.