About Zircon, Yet Again...

As sources in Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed today, 3M22 anti-shipping missile, also known as Zircon reached the speed of Mach=8 on its trials. This is insane and this is also not-interceptable by any known or perspective air-defense systems. Moreover, more became known about its range, stated to be around 400 kilometers, what this "around" means nobody knows but it was speculated for a while that it is up to 500 kilometers. But that is not what really matters in this news. For me it was a surprise--it was confirmed that Zircon will be launched from standard 3C14 VLS system which is installed on all new Russian frigates and corvettes this adding to Kalibr and Onyx carrying capability. These are not good news for opponents surface component, in fact, these are very very bad news since this capability will be distributed across most platforms, current and perspective, Russian Navy deploys. 

Strategic and operational implications, as I wrote not for once, are immense. Coming of Zircon will change naval warfare forever and will redefine the nature of Sea Denial and A2/AD and it will influence a design and tactics of surface (and submarines) combatants.  Littorals and Remote Sea Zones are about to become a whole lot more dangerous, and I mean a whole lot, like on the order of magnitude. In the end, this is what Russians always were striving for with their constant focus on cost/effectiveness ratio. Currently US Naval Institute Proceedings has my article precisely on that--I don't know if they will accept, I should by the end of April. If not, I will gladly share will all (or on UNZ Review) with my thoughts on the revolutionary change in naval tactics and operations which even  single salvo of two Zircons will bring about. We live in a very dangerous time, we also live inside a game-changing in warfare and this one is a real Revolution In Military Affairs (RMA) which came from very unexpected (for most US military analysts) quarters.  

The Coming Of Zircon.

As Interfax reports (In Russian), the first launch of a brand new hyper-sonic missile Zircon (3M22) from the sea platform will happen in the Spring of 2017. The missile, upon completion of trials, will be deployed on both surface ships and subs. Initially those will be both Russian Navy's Nuclear Missile Cruisers Admiral Nakhimov and Peter The Great, and all Yasen-class (project.885) SSGNs, and their follow up Husky-class SSGNs. 

I am not going to lie, I am impressed with the speed with which Zirkon is coming but then again, it is a revolutionary weapon which will change the naval paradigm and most people with even rudimentary understanding of missile weapons can appreciate the fact that even a single missile capable of M=6 and the range of somewhere between 400 and 1000 kilometers is, basically, not interceptable by any existing naval air-defense system. Russia invested a lot in it. A salvo of such weapons will, with a very high probability, ensure a defeat of an opponent. Zircon is an ultimate Sea Denial weapon, albeit, depending on the naval views it can be construed as a Sea Control one. But, considering the philosophy behind Soviet/Russian anti-shipping missile development, Zircon is a Sea Denial weapon which fits perfectly into the Russian view of A2/AD. Russia's A2/AD starts in what is known as DMZ (Remote Sea Zone) and it is this edge (aka Kromka) where platforms carrying this weapon will have to counter any effort to undermine Russia's security. Zircon also, undeniably, is the part of Russia's conventional strategic containment  and ocean deployment of the latest Russia Navy's SSGNs armed with this missile will serve this purpose. It will be fascinating to observe the change in naval thinking in the coming years.

About Zircon (3M22) Yet Again.....

It is really becoming redundant to talk about it, but I will state it anyway, yet again: we are in the age of missiles. Yes, aircraft carriers are magnificent ships and they carry with them a certain, fairly high, level of prestige for those who operate them but they are....drum roll...not the future of the naval warfare. They stopped being that once the range of the anti-shipping missile became comparable with the range of the carrier launched aircraft. Once Soviet Union started launching these missiles from submerged submarines--the game was over. As Commanders Joseph A. Gattuzo and Lori J. Tanner (both carrier aviators with enormous experience) stated in their Naval Forces In The New Century: 

"Money spent furthering manned aircraft technologies and programs—the CVNX (proposed Nimitz-class carrier replacement) being one of them—is like polishing cannonballs so they will fly a little farther."

 Original by Gattuzo And Tanner
 

So, now Russia announced what have been known for a while: that Russian Navy is about to procure hyper-sonic 3M22 anti-shipping missile known also as Zircon.

Zirkon For Russian Navy  

A lot of rumors circulate about this missile but what is known more or less for sure is the fact that this missile has a speed in excess of Mach=5 and the range varying anywhere from 500 to 1000 kilometers. The procurement of this missile signifies two major facts:

1. Russian material science is pretty good if it ensured that this missile is capable of sustaining the extreme temperatures associated with such speed at very low profiles of flight;

2. The problem of sensors, namely radar head (seeker), operating in a plasma environment, which is the result of this speed, have been resolved. 

These are really bad news for aircraft carrier "trade-unions" (using Elmo Zumwalt's definition) both in US and in Russia. The reason being almost guaranteed inability of current and near-future air defense systems to deal with this threat. It is one thing to intercept ballistic high flying target at the ranges of 100s of kilometers, totally another is to do so in the case of a sea-skimmer which flies with the speed of about a mile a second and whose detection is effectively limited by the radio-horizon, which, depending on the height of the radar antenna and the altitude of said Zirkon, doesn't leave much time at all, if any, to develop a firing solution. Depending on these and other meteorological and radio atmospheric factors the range could vary anywhere from 20 to 40 miles. Obviously, there is always the issue of the AD screen, with ships in the task groups positioned away from the main target, which is carrier, and, of course there are patrols at the remote edges of the Carrier Battle Group. Well, doesn't matter--there are simply no means today, nor there will be any tomorrow, capable to reliably intercept this kind of weapons. Yes, I know, I know, those almighty lasers and other blasters but even they, those mythical weapons which exist mostly in the demonstration videos and the minds of enthusiasts, are not the answer. Why so, I will not discuss it here. Because after all, it is about Zircon and once the first hull capable of carrying this missile (or rather many of them), modernized Admiral Nakhimov hits the waves in 2018 after her modernization (with Peter The Great planned to do so in 2022), the naval warfare as we know it will cease to exist officially. The age of true Distributed Lethality will be upon us, while aircraft carriers will have to change drastically or be relegated to the role of the museum exhibits, for those which will survive.  Tactical, Operational, Strategic and Economic realities, when salvo of 4-8 missiles, with the total cost of about 10 million dollars can sink 20+ billion dollars of hardware, not to speak of denying it the objectives, became such that they are impossible to be ignored anymore. 

Zircons, Onyxes and Kalibrs on the move. 

  

If It Is True...

What Russian Internet is abuzz since this morning, then the radical change of whole naval paradigm is much closer than even most optimistic prognoses predicted. This morning Russian media broke news of  nuclear missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov, which is currently undergoing deep modernization,  (after the list of state purchases for this modernization was published) to be armed with newest hyper-sonic ASM 3M22, aka Zirkon. 

Nakhimov To Be Armed With Zirkon 

Very little is known about this missile other than it is true hyper-sonic (M=5 +) High Precision Weapon and that it will change naval warfare drastically. The rumors about this missile were circulating for some years and some of them were absolute rubbish. What was clear, though, was the fact that Russia was well on her way in the advanced hyper-sonic R&D. This, at some point of time was confirmed by none other than Dmitri Rogozin. Procurement of the ASM, against which no defense exists, is a true game changer. I will not go into the details of this game-changing but the future of naval warfare looks very different from hyper-sonic vantage point than it was drawn by many contemporary military thinkers. We'll wait and see.....