Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Ohh, Goody...

Ok, delusional--I get it. But this guy who did two tours in Afghanistan and Iraq evidently learned zero there, I mean real war--not "triumphant" COIN in those countries. The guy is a lawyer by education and a darling of a "patriotic" media in US. He has issues with real operations and strategy (it is expected from people with "degree" in Law and Government) and assessing, at least, the size of force required to actually win, that is to say occupy Iran. Hence:
US Republican Senator Tom Cotton is facing severe criticism from the public after bombastically claiming that the US would win a war against Iran in just “two strikes.”While speaking to Margaret Hoover for the aptly named show ‘Firing Line,’ the Arkansas senator said a war with Iran would not drag on for decades like the failed war with its neighbor, Iraq. Instead, he claimed it would end after the “first strike and last strike.”
Judging by the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran war will be a "cakewalk", yes, yes--I would love to see Mr.Cotton, who accidentally is a US GOP Senator, "lead" some formation (will he plan operation?) against "defeated" Iran forces say in Mazandaran or Talysh Mountains. While planning for it, Cotton may take a look at Google maps and review Iran's terrain, you know--to get an impression on how he, Cotton, will fight in a country with 80 million population and fairly competent armed forces, not to mention, I am sure, a partizan (COIN) war which will be unleashed in Iran against the invaders, which would make Afghanistan a relaxed stroll in the park in comparison. Of course, there is always the Air War, that is bombing Iran from the air but this too will create such a global shitstorm that I do not even want to contemplate it now. 
Now, back to this possible land war in Iran. I hear all the time--but what about Russia. Well, Russia will not allow the United States to enter Russia's Caspian underbelly, unless Russia is ready to provide for the United States a Vietnam 2.0 (probably worse) and she is ready to do so if push comes to shove. People somehow miss this obvious fact that getting the United States into the death trap of Iran's ground war, with Russia having all necessary lines of communications opened through Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea to resupply Iranian resistance if the United States decides to sign a death sentence to herself, will be able to make such a war a nightmare. This, of course, if such a war is unleashed. Bolton, certainly, dreams about it. Here is Colonel Wilkerson explaining who people in current Administration are, especially Bolton:
Cotton is made of the same human material as Bolton or Pompeo, and that means he is incompetent. In the end, Russia will, as always, exercise and exhaust all diplomatic options first to diffuse situation and to prevent the war. If, however, the war starts, and it may, considering already not very healthy state of the American economy and society, throw the United States into a massive turmoil, Russia will make sure that Iran has instruments for defending its sovereignty. After all, it is in Russia's own interests too. In this case, Russia will engage. And then, of course, there is an issue of Azerbaijan and a large Azeri population of Iran--three times larger than that of Azerbaijan proper. 

In general, Mr. Cotton, speaks about the area he has no clue about in any political, geographic, military or cultural senses but that is what American "elite" today is--a collection of militant ignoramuses. As Larry Wilkerson describes his conflict with Bolton, as mustached coward told Wilkerson: "I do policy, you do war." How the draft dodger and lawyer can do military policy is a mystery behind seven locks, but my suggestion to Cotton (I am sure it is within his power)--to stop talking on subjects he has no clue about, forget about whatever he remembers from Iraq and Afghanistan, and try to enroll into some REAL military history courses in US Army War College and maybe attend Leavenworth, US Army Command and General Staff College--to pick up few professional facts about possible combined arms operations in Iran. I know, I know--a very long shot--but hope springs eternal.

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