Friday, April 7, 2017

Several Points Based On What Is Known About Aggression Against Syria So Far.

I will not write anything what is not known but:

1. The most startling footage of the morning was a footage of SAA's Air Base Shairat. It was startling in terms of lack of damage and of the runway which, for the lack of better word, was untouched. The dispersion of actual hits away from runway is also telling. 

In other words, the base, after cleaning the debris remains operational. This completely supports Konashenkov's (Russia's MOD spokesperson) claim that out of 59 BGM-109s launched against  Shairat only 23 struck targets. The damage to runway, as was stated as a main objective, is minimal to non-existent. Why 62% of Tomahawks never struck a stationary target? Make your own conclusions. What is known for sure now, is that there were no Pantsir AD complexes around the airbase, neither S-300 or S-400 engaged targets.  

2. For those who are still into this S-300, S-400 military toys business–those systems are in Syria not to defend SAA–they are there to defend Russian military contingent against any attack from the air. Those are primarily:

a) for monitoring Syria’s airspace;
b) to defend Khmeimim Air Base. 

3. Judging by Russian news and first steps by Moscow, Syrian Air Defense (as I predicted some time ago) will become, suddenly, way-way more up to date. This is what Konashenkov said today. What does it mean? Well, again, make you own conclusion but Syrians will (wink, wink) develop, suddenly, a very good expertise in shooting just about anything out there.

4. This all will have consequences and very unpleasant ones for US. Russia’s shutting down “deescalation” link with US forces in area is a good indicator that Mattis amd McMaster, if they want to implement some suicidal plan, will have to deal with a number of contingencies they most likely do not understand nor are capable of calculating. At this stage, Trump is merely a stooge and not a very smart at that--to launch airstrikes just before getting together with China's political top. How does he think China will react? Actually she already reacted in support of Assad. Chinese also remember insults.

5. Trump's "military advisers" judging by some competent opinions really do think that Russia will back down. Boy, talk about delusion and incompetence both political and military. But then again, neither Mattis nor McMaster make an impression of people who know what they are dealing with (they don't). I may (may, not will) review some scenarios in Syria. But...

Now it is official, US supports Al Qaeda (Al Nusra) and fights on behalf of terrorists. Even Russia's official village idiot Medvedev came out today swinging. Meanwhile Admiral Grigorovich is ordered back to Med and US is now officially sliding down to a catastrophe, the only question is if it will take the whole world with it or will completely bankrupt itself in a controlled manner, with minimal number of victims.

UPDATE: even considering the "reliability" of a source--this is now becoming a farce.

JUST IN: Syrian warplanes take off from air base hit by U.S., carry out strikes in Homs countryside - Syrian observatory for human rights. 

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