Why I Am Not Surprised-2.0.

You gotta love these headlines.

 Stocks up slightly amid dismal economic data

And why shouldn't they be? Greed has no relation to reality, economic or human, for that matter. All this Wall Street gobbledygook was never designed to give clear sharp definitions of real things or processes. Just take a load of this:

That rotation from high-growth tech to value names also came alongside states reopening their economies and helping catalyze an uptick in activity, bringing investors back into a broader basket of equities.

Oh, what a load of pretentious contrived shit which serves only to cover for this data and it is horrifying, because it affects lives of millions of people who are not "into a broader basket of equities". 

The S&P 500 has crossed the 3,000 level again and investors are clearly riding high on hope for a second half economic recovery post the worst of COVID-19. But that doesn’t mean the market is immune to a pullback this summer primarily because the economic data will likely continue to be horrible. Remember bulls, the U.S. economy has been kicked in the face by the pandemic, and a rebound won’t happen overnight simply because states are reopening. Corporate sales and profits remain under severe strain, sending many off to explore bankruptcy or cut thousands of workers even with quarantines being lifted. “We think that the reported unemployment rate may be around as high as 20% in May,” Barclays chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen warned on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. The unemployment rate in April increased by 10.3 percentage points to 14.7%. Gapen believes the U.S. economy may contract a whopping 40% annualized in the second quarter, then surprisingly grow by 25% in the third quarter and 8% in the fourth quarter.

Yes, yes, it will "surprisingly" grow, never mind unsurprising 20% unemployment rate. And let's not talk, like absolutely not, about what was going on before the seasonal flu...I mean COVID-19 struck its blow at impressionable universe of social networks' slaves. The question is not about if the recovery is in cards--it is, at some point of time, at least--but about what will the country do once the full (real--I underscore it, real) scale of unemployment hits home. If there ever was a better way to demonstrate how a huge chunk of "white collar" jobs is not only useless but a burden on real economy, the COVID-19 was it.  

A new video, few days ago, caught my attention. Remember this?

I knew from the get go that this whole thing was nothing more than a "sell" for a bunch of uncultured nouveau riche class which spawned on the ponzi scheme of easy virtual money. "Respectable" people with real money usually reside in their castles and mansions in Europe, closer to actual, however degenerate today, culture and landscapes.  Middle Eastern shitholes covered with the glitz of oil money are for plebes, even if with money, virtual ones, that is. This is one of the suites on the "middle" floor of Burj Khalifa--a symbol of human post-modernist imbecility and ambition--during the storm, which are frequent guests in the region. 

Anyone who thinks that this "experience"of satisfying own ego in this building is so great--let them. No normal person, that is the person who has own two feet on the ground and values real things in life, be them emotionally, aesthetically or materially, would ever want to spend a day (or night) in this pretentious tower looking out at the desert, sea and ugly concrete jungles of Dubai, or any other location in the area. If I need to experience a desert (but it is just me), I know how to get to Nevada (driving through some of the most wonderful landscapes in the world), check into decent Holiday Inn or (all right, all right) Bellagio, and still be within easy driving distance to everything I really value in life--wonderful nature's sights, few hours of drive away lake Tahoe, being among (mostly) people of the same culture and good ol' Black Bear Diner or IHOP, for that matter. Excellent experiences and they cost order of magnitude less than any "vacations" in Dubai or whatever other radically un-touristy locations in backward Middle East. But, as I said, it is just me, many still think that if they could (not anymore, evidently) afford some, never materialized, mansion on one of the Dubai's "islands" that would set them apart, I agree. One has to be a complete moron to "invest" into the "real estate" in the place which goes (not will, but IS going) kaboom in the new economic reality where things of real value only matter.

What is this real "value"? Very simple, our families, our loved ones, friends, colleagues, our real skills in building, repairing, growing, harvesting things, maintaining the safety of our communities, leading truly healthy, in every sense of this word, lifestyles (not you, vegans and pot-smokers), reading, listening to good music, contemplating, creating, being human--these are real values. This is the way to contentment, in being satisfied with smaller but important things. Of course jobs matter, of course our houses matter, but normal person doesn't need Bentley or $4,000 a night suite, or $3 million mansion at the sandy isles in the midst of stinky water, in the area which goes bust, as was predicted, to be happy. As I say all the time, the economy is a consumer pattern. Yes, we all got screwed over by moneyed and subservient political class, nothing new here, it happened before (and was predicted), it is happening now and may happen yet again in the future--such is the nature of capital. But while being condescending (justifiably) towards this class' consumerism, much of it drowning in consumption of useless, wealth-signalling, luxuries, which is always a sign of a lack of true culture and real refinment, there is nothing wrong with us taking a look in the mirror at our own selves and asking the question if continuous consumer pattern is sustainable? I don't think so. But what is the normal pattern? How can it be defined, in what material and moral terms? We all will have to answer this question at some point of time. I, personally, do not need Bentley to be content, as long as my air conditioner and stereo in the car work, as long as it is clean and tidy, I should be fine, in material sense. I also can live without single cask Scotch $500 a bottle. 

In fact, even today, when looking at consumer patterns of modern "elites", one cannot fail to notice how much those "luxuries" are kitsch and tasteless in their attempt to emulate glorious antiquity and royal opulence of Renaissance while in reality most of those in the possession of that opulence have nothing more than a psyche of the small shop keepers. They may yet, many of them, experience a rude awakening. In the end, how can we balance out the need and the want, how does this proverbial "enough" in material sense look like? It is a known fact that Marx considered the United States to be the first country where socialist revolution will succeed. Marx may yet turn out to be correct but what we all, without exception, need to prevent is revolution in a sense of an outright physical conflict, however difficult this may seem now. But it is in everyone's interest to see evolution towards maybe, just maybe, more sane economically and, as a consequence, morally future. For everything else there is a new generation of weapons to help keep this all under control for now.

OO From OODA In Relation To GIGO.

As in Colonel Boyd's Loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. Our brilliant artist Veritas Semper Vincit summarized two "Os" (Observe and Orient) brilliantly in one painting: 

We observe the financial Black Hole which consumes the United States, and huge parts of the world tied directly to US "finances", and the information from the fronts is getting, as is expected, even worse:

The U.S. Labor Department released fresh data on Thursday morning that showed the effect of the novel coronavirus on employment in the U.S. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits spiked to a record-breaking 6.648 million for the week ending March 28. Consensus expectations were for 3.76 million claims. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 3.307 million claims from 3.283 million. Prior to the week ending March 21, the previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. 

My only question is this: how the heck did they manage to miscalculate that badly? What is consensus, anyway? Economics is not a precise science, nor is statistics related to such issues as unemployment, pandemic, political preferences or, for that matter, climate change. The attempts to stick all those processes into some mathematical models are merely feeble attempts to move beyond Observe into the Orient stage in the Boyd's Loop, aka the intelligent decision making framework. In this particular case, transition from Observe to Orient is very difficult, because most of those "models" do not really work. In fact, they never did. E.g. how many people in this statistics are really unemployed? Did anyone count people who simply dropped out of job search even BEFORE this shitstorm, and who never were counted in order to create an illusion that unemployment was relatively low. Here is how the dry percentage numbers of people who simply gave up on jobs translates into a number of actual human lives BEFORE the shitstorm, in 2019:

From about the late 1980s until 2008, the participation rate fluctuated around 66% to 67%. But after the Great Recession, the rate dropped more 3 percentage points over the next seven years and has barely budged since. The latest jobs report shows it’s at 62.8%.The 3 percentage points decline in participation translates to over 6 million people no longer in the labor force. 

When taken into consideration, the actual unemployment rate before Covid-19 was very high, but corrupt US media wouldn't even try to communicate in facts in order to cover for Obama's disastrous economic and social policies. But when OODA is substituted with GIGO (Garbage In-Garbage Out) one would expect a disastrous outcome . In a statistical alternative universe of US exceptionalism across the board, from "low" unemployment numbers, to Trump losing out to Hillary in most "opinion" polls, to America's defeating Nazism almost single-handedly, there is a constant flavor of Voodoo about American statistical reality. This Voodoo constantly keeps people off balance, because they begin to exist simultaneously in several realities, akin to a bizarre and, I admit, addictive world of David Lynch's 3rd Season of Twin Peaks. I will yet to write on this cinematographic masterpiece. 

Models in US "economy" do not work, they never did because they failed to account for a stochastic black hole of "irrational exuberance" which sucked into its event horizon last vestiges of common sense and rational behavior which insured that:

“Economic data in the near future will be not just bad, but unrecognizable,” Credit Suisse economists led by James Sweeney wrote last week. “Anomalies will be ubiquitous and old statistical relationships within economic data or between market and macro data might not always hold... There is no blueprint for the current shock, and uncertainty about the extent of contagion and the economic consequences is overwhelming.”

"Might not always hold"? Really? When did they hold? Can this "economist" even grasp the fact that most statistics and "models" Western neo-liberal economists worshiped are in the foundation in the West's dramatic decline? Covid-19 merely lifted the curtain hiding the ugly reality of the financial gang-rape of the productive forces and the wealth transfer from so many in the disappearing middle class into the hands of so few. And we didn't deal with the REAL inflation yet. When this tsunami hits, expect the unexpected...albeit, what am I talking about--"the unexpected", "the sudden", "not anticipated" have been wrecking havoc with US domestic and foreign policies for too long now to expect fast, hopefully, recovery. I do not even want to go into the worst case scenario: