Omega Issue For Those ...

 ... who still don't get it about this silly Tomahawk (TLAMs) issue. This is omega: 

The Greek letter, whose lower case in Operations Theory stands for mathematical expectation, aka weighted average, for anything. In our case here--it is a weighted average of TLAMs required to destroy--emphasis on "destroy", not to damage-- any kind of target if it strikes it.

Consider this problem (in generalities), this is TAIF-NK refinery in Tatarstan (just a segment, not a full facility).

Here is TANECO refinery and storage, also just a part of it. 

So, here is TANECO, one of many Russia's refineries on the map.

Diagonally, as you can see yourself it is almost 6.5 miles. Now let's find some American general with degree in political science and ROTC commission, or even some graduate of the West Point and ask him a question--how many TLAMs would be required to put just a single refinery of TANECO size out of business for, say, a year--yes, what is this Omega, a math expectation. I'll give you a hint--they don't know, they never planned nor operated with anything that can shoot back. The same goes for USAF--there is not a single American pilot who has any idea how to handle real AD. 

But I can tell you what this Omega MIGHT be without AD, and I am talking about taking TANECO out, not some PR pin-pricks by 404 with drones hitting one of the towers or pipelines which are easily repaired within days, sometimes hours. No, I am talking about strategic impact. Well, even without AD, with TLAMs ALL of them being leakers it will require at least 100 (one hundred). Well, the problem for Pentagon which is utterly incompetent in issues of air defense, when operating within the environment such as Russian Air Defense, in order for them to provide 100 leakers, they will need something on the order of couple of thousands of TLAMs, which the US simply doesn't have and is incapable to produce within reasonable amount of time--say couple of months. So, do you get my drift? Correct, the only hope for the US in supplying a couple of Typhoons with TLAMs to 404 is to score some PR pin-pricks at civilian targets. 

Now, back to SMO. If you consider the fact that Russia since the very start of SMO in 2022 was using (very roughly) daily on average between 15 to 20 high precision stand off weapons (not Geraniums, I stress it) such as: 3M14 Kalibr, 3M22 Zircon, Kinzhal, P-800 Oniks, Iskander et all, then we can calculate the sum for 1,320 days of SMO. I go with higher margin because Iskanders alone are the bulk of this number. So, 1,320 x 20 = 26,400 High Precision stand-off weapons Russia used so far on targets in 404. Realistically, this number is even higher and when one adds here drones such as Geraniums the number runs into hundreds of thousands. This is BEYOND the US industrial capability by two orders of magnitude and that gives you a bit of a perspective on the scale of things and why Russians are really nonchalant about this TLAM business. Did Mr. Trump check his omega lately? You know the answer. Some in Pentagon do too--but they are a minority.